Gold 2011/12

[new_trader]

Good going guys. We've been looking for some "discussion" since leopard and toast died off

There is no discussion. Just a lot of clueless technical analysts who can't understand why gold isn't acting they way their glossy books (with pictures of money on the cover) told them it should.

They also lack the courage of their convictions...clueless cowards...and then make baseless accusations about my gold positions...such bitter and nasty wannabe's who trade like the clueless general public..

Imagine how bitter and nasty they will get when gold hits $2000!

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Don't you two have different time horizons and therefore this whole up or down argument is meaningless?

I saw a potential medium term top in Gold at 1900 like alot of people. Did I sell my Gold? No, its 15% of my investable assets as an insurance policy and that is it.

 

[Just4Fun]

Oohhh...bitter envy, how much I enjoy it :cheesy:

If you adopt the fanciful notion that I might have any cause to be envious of you :cheesy:....You ought to seize this opportunity to show what I might be envious of.

To do this, all you have to do is tangibly demonstrate by making calls in Gold, in real time, by logging the entry in GMT, specifying the entry price and then declaring the exit, also in GMT and the exit price.

When you do this and when you are able to do it repeatedly and accurately, only then will you possibly earn the right to behave the way you behave towards a lot of members here and to earn respect.

In the meantime I maintain the opinion you are just a serial s#it stirrer and you post a lot of hot air and bulls#t, frankly.

 

[Just4Fun]

I'm glad you've noticed.

We have history together and when the Iraq war was on and cost of US army coupled with twin deficits were killing the US dollar, I agreed with him and we were both very bullish on gold. However, after 1900s and 1800s got rejected I changed direction and became bearish.

I think it was around then coupled with favouring the raising of taxes that NT really turned on me for no apparent reason. I had him on ignore at one point as he is a real bull ****ter just dumping all the time. Very personal indeed and he is still at it.

If you read the start of this blog around #7 - #11 he just simply entered the thread without really saying much but trashing me once again. I think this thread clearly shows gold has been faltering since it was rejected from 1800 around 3rd of December 2011.

If what he says is honest he has been buying the falls.

I think he blames me for his losses for some profound irrational reason. No idea. I can't explain why he is such an ****.

And also don't mention Keynes or fiat currencies, as he likes to think he is an expert on both - the tormented poor soul that he is. :innocent:

I have been looking around.
To your credit, I have seen how you have participated in the Forex Contest and done your best. Well done. I hope you have better results next time. at least you show integrity and drive.

With regard to our opinionated friend,I am on the case, don't you worry.:cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

If you adopt the fanciful notion that I might have any cause to be envious of you :cheesy:....You ought to seize this opportunity to show what I might be envious of.

To do this, all you have to do is tangibly demonstrate by making calls in Gold, in real time, by logging the entry in GMT, specifying the entry price and then declaring the exit, also in GMT and the exit price.

When you do this and when you are able to do it repeatedly and accurately, only then will you possibly earn the right to behave the way you behave towards a lot of members here and to earn respect.

In the meantime I maintain the opinion you are just a serial s#it stirrer and you post a lot of hot air and bulls#t, frankly.

I have no interest in NT's or anyone elses position or wealth. I'm not a materialistic soul at all. More into reading, the mind and good living then material possessions.

If I wanted to be envious of anyone it would be someone like Neil Armstrong to wonder what it may have been like to see planet earth from the moon and space above. Not some arrogant fancy trader who thinks his 'the' chosen one - master of the universe.

Usually one who is envious and bitter often see others thinking of themselves as such.

Paranoid schizophrenia is a schizophrenia subtype in which the patient has false beliefs (delusions) that somebody or some people are plotting against them or members of their family. People with paranoid schizophrenia, as with most subtypes may also have auditory hallucinations - they hear things that are not real. The individual may also have delusions of personal grandeur - a false belief that they are much greater and more powerful and influential than they really are.

NT is verging on this condition. Because he accuses others of envying his position which no one gives an 'F' about. I say this because who ever happens to say they have a short bias becomes liable to be stalked by NT and dumped on with verbal rage.


In some respects I'm glad its just not me but that he has now accused you of being bitter too. Perhaps its not personal but simply NT.


fwiw - based on my chart and uncle Bernanke's Wednesday speech this week should be interesting. If he says naye to QE - then gold bears will have a bit of a picnic. If he says aye then gold will test the 1700s.

 

[Just4Fun]

I have no interest in NT's or anyone elses position or wealth. I'm not a materialistic soul at all. More into reading, the mind and good living then material possessions.

If I wanted to be envious of anyone it would be someone like Neil Armstrong to wonder what it may have been like to see planet earth from the moon and space above. Not some arrogant fancy trader who thinks his 'the' chosen one - master of the universe.

Usually one who is envious and bitter often see others thinking of themselves as such.

Paranoid schizophrenia is a schizophrenia subtype in which the patient has false beliefs (delusions) that somebody or some people are plotting against them or members of their family. People with paranoid schizophrenia, as with most subtypes may also have auditory hallucinations - they hear things that are not real. The individual may also have delusions of personal grandeur - a false belief that they are much greater and more powerful and influential than they really are.

NT is verging on this condition. Because he accuses others of envying his position which no one gives an 'F' about. I say this because who ever happens to say they have a short bias becomes liable to be stalked by NT and dumped on with verbal rage.


In some respects I'm glad its just not me but that he has now accused you of being bitter too. Perhaps its not personal but simply NT.


fwiw - based on my chart and uncle Bernanke's Wednesday speech this week should be interesting. If he says naye to QE - then gold bears will have a bit of a picnic. If he says aye then gold will test the 1700s.

Why are you replying to me if my post was addressed to him ?

 

[Atilla]

Why are you replying to me if my post was addressed to him ?

Well you are in no way connected but he has accused you of being bitter with envy too.

Just adding my opinion to the discussion on this envy bitterness stuff he seems to go around accusing people of.

Who cares about anyone elses trading position is my point not replying to your post?

 

[Just4Fun]

Well you are in no way connected but he has accused you of being bitter with envy too.

Just adding my opinion to the discussion on this envy bitterness stuff he seems to go around accusing people of.

Who cares about anyone elses trading position is my point not replying to your post?

Ok, I understand.

We will see if he responds properly like a big boy then.

 

[rsh01]

Re: Brown selling gold

plus its almost widely known now that the PM markets are manipulated by the fiat govts & their partners in crime (TBTF banks) to suppress gold prices, and gold has still rallied. if it was a free market (forgotten what these are) some people are speculating gold should be nearer $3,000/oz, some at $10,000. Again who knows.

The price of gold has been manipulated. This is more scandalous than Libor – Telegraph Blogs

more on market manipulation & the reason why gordon browneye sold UKs gold at lows. Some choice comments from the article:

"He (Brown) broke with convention and announced the sale well in advance, giving the market notice that it was shortly to be flooded and forcing down the spot price."

"It seemed almost as if the Treasury was trying to achieve the lowest price possible for the public’s gold. It was."

"One globally significant US bank in particular is understood to have been heavily short on two tonnes of gold, enough to call into question its solvency if redemption occurred at the prevailing price."

"Faced with the prospect of a global collapse in the banking system, the Chancellor took the decision to bail out the banks by dumping Britain’s gold, forcing the price down and allowing the banks to buy back gold at a profit, thus meeting their borrowing obligations."

Revealed: why Gordon Brown sold Britain's gold at a knock-down price – Telegraph Blogs

read the article if you want to know why banks were shorting gold.

the bank it bailed out? jpmorgan? the one blair gets a reasonable renumeration from (in expenses apparently) now.

if true, why is this not more of a scandal?

 

[YouAreNotFree]

When I hear calls of manipulation I just refer people to a 12 year chart of Gold & Silver.

 

[rsh01]

When I hear calls of manipulation I just refer people to a 12 year chart of Gold & Silver.

this was in 1999

 

[rsh01]

Don't you two have different time horizons and therefore this whole up or down argument is meaningless?

YANF,...time horizons is in part a valid point; the 12 year curve isn't (noone knows what the curve wld be like if there was no 'alleged' intervention). besides the curve flattened pretty quick.

what has fanned the grievances on this thread are, imo, atillas attempts at either:
1. a wind up of NT
2. an insistence that he is correct in whatever he says - which is largely absurd - yet what he says is final (with a sign off questioning NTs state of mind);
3. a bit of both.

with respect to point 2, atillas posts are full of statements about FA (fundamental analysis), yet he will always revert to the caveat that he doesnt trade FA, only TA. Some example atilla quotes to support my points 1-3:

The shine has certainly come off. As economies bounce it will fall further. This is because there is no uncertainty of outcome

....this is a definite, atilla says so. this post is a (2).

Despite all the bad news and outlook no move up

...attempt of a wind up or cementing his beliefs that this could not happen? (poss a 3 but more likely a 2)

Other than Syrian/Iranian crises nothing likely to move it imo.

...its good you have learnt from your earlier posts & used an 'imo', well done but still a (2) as its absurd.

a new run on equities is about to start and gold will fall. This is just for mugs to buy up before the next big fall.

...i had to add this again - its just so vague/funny & is a (2) obviously.
who are the 'mugs' moving the whole gold market? just mugs, or institutions/funds with big money? jeez you cldnt make it up.

Not much happening at the mo. I see gold as clinging on a mountainside for dear life

...an upside down mountain? a (2) again

Will US QE3 have an impact on gold??? Yes but unlikely as there is no need for QE3 imo.

...i am sure he is contradicting himself again, can only be (2) though for obv reasons. where did i see that quote.....

Stability of dollar standard and war drives gold not printing presses

...eh but you said....ah never mind. (2).

I am a technical trader not FA.

...pheweeeeeee! saved yourself a few bob or two there perhaps, though i find it hard to believe you can trade with 0 fundamental bias when you post stuff like the above.

[all of these are recent posts]
atilla, from the content of a lot of your posts (some examples above)....not just here but in other threads, you sound like your opinion cannot be budged no matter what - ie you are v stubborn. despite the stubbornness i believe you come under my point 3 above - a combo of both a wind up & arrogance. the wind up though cld be accidental, & maybe its ignorance rather than arrogance - though they often come hand in hand.

More into...the mind and good living then material possessions.

...this last comment says it all really, as the gold value is not just considered a material possession, its considered much much more (by CBs, HFs et al), which NT & others have been saying all along & imo is a subject which everyone should be aware of.

and for atilla - who is more into 'the mind' (whatever the feck that means...more vagueries) - to suggest that NT is bordering on paranoid schizophrenia using merely forum posts as basis for the diagnosis - says all you need to know about atilla. full of....

------------------------------------------
sidekicker questioned one of atillas many assertions...
Sidekicker: "Exactly how are economies bouncing when funded with debt?"

atilla responded with: "What are you asking I don't understand?"

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commodities/135664-gold-2011-12-a-9.html#post1884132

sidekicker reacted the best you can in such circumstances....by not responding. there really is no point in getting into a discussion about such subjects with atilla, maybe NT will learn.

---------------

i will add something a little more positive though re PMs, quite a good listen to the weekly review regardless if you're a TA or FA trader:

KWN Weekly Metals Wrap

(dont believe everything you read/listen to on the internet).

have a fun bank hol uk ppl.

 

[Atilla]

YANF,...time horizons is in part a valid point; the 12 year curve isn't (noone knows what the curve wld be like if there was no 'alleged' intervention). besides the curve flattened pretty quick.

..



..

have a fun bank hol uk ppl.

You've obviously put in the hours over this stuff.

Ofcourse, conditions change and I change my opinions with them. I can be wrong too. I don't deny it. I was bullish on gold, turned bearish and I may well turn bullish again. But not just yet.

However, if you can also put date / price of gold when comments were made and subsequent movements in gold it would be better piece of accurate work. Do you not think?


Since your attention to detail is so **** poor you obviously missed this point. For your reference...
I entered this blogg on 3rd of Dec when gold was 1760 just at turn of the month coming off from 1800s.

In May it reached 1530s.

I predicted this on 3rd of Dec #7

NT came in thrashing this comment and he has been hounding me since. See post #12


You two obviously come form the same piece of cloth.



By the way - distribution of gas masks in Israel to all it's popullation coupled with possible WMD falling into terrorist hands from Syria is being taken very seriously. There is constant chatter about a strike on Iran just before the elections. Iran also arming Hezbollah. Syria as I mentioned few weeks earlier has the potential for escalating rapidly.

I still hold the view there is no need for QE3 and Bernanke is either talking up the markets or talking down the dollar.

The difference between me and you guys is I am an open book and I clearly state my opinions. I'm also happy to be wrong and correct my stance.

We'll have to wait and see.



Either way I still fail to understand whilst reading, current affairs and economics is just an interest for me... if you two are big swingers - WTF you two meddling with someone inconsequential as me. Bee in your bonnet just doesn't say it.

 

[morpheustrading]

My technical analysis on $GLD (Gold ETF). Time to buy again?

One potential ETF trade entry on our radar screen this week is SPDR Gold Trust ($GLD), a commodity ETF that tracks the price of spot gold futures. We have not discussed trading this Gold ETF for a long time because it has been in correction mode, retracing from its all-time high, for nearly a year. It has also been rather flat for the past several months. However, upon closer examination of the big picture, we see that momentum of $GLD may now be reversing, which could provide for a solid swing trading opportunity on the long side. To begin with, notice the breakout above the 200-day moving average that occurred just last week:

As you can see, $GLD rallied to close above major resistance of its 200-day moving average (on August 22) for the first time since March of this year. Increasing volume, which rose above its 50-day average level, helped to confirm the move. In the subsequent two days that followed the breakout above its 200-day MA, $GLD traded in a tight, sideways range. However, although such price action is bullish, the daily chart pattern presently does not yet provide us with a clearly defined buy entry point and level for setting a stop price. For that, we would need to see at least a one or two-day pullback that ideally forms a reversal candle. If that occurs, the levels for setting our buy trigger and stop prices would be much more clearly defined. As annotated in the chart above, we would ideally like to see a quick pullback to near new support of its 200-day MA (the orange line), presently just above the $160 level. This would form a bull flag chart pattern. Another reason we would first like to see a minor price retracement from current levels before buying is that the long-term monthly chart interval shows us that $GLD is actually running into resistance of its downtrend line from its September 2011 high:

If $GLD is bumping into resistance of a downtrend line that has been in place for nearly one full year, one may be wondering why we would be considering trading this ETF on a pullback before it actually breaks out above resistance of that downtrend line. There are several reasons. Perhaps most importantly, one must remember the basic tenet of technical analysis that states a longer-term trend always holds more weight than a shorter-term trend. Therefore, even though $GLD is kissing resistance of a downtrend line that is nearly 12 months old, notice more importantly that this Gold ETF has clearly been in a dominant uptrend since at least 2006. As such, technical analysis dictates that the odds favor an eventual resumption of that multi-year uptrend. Although the current one-year pullback off the high has been rather lengthy, it was merely proportionate (in the big picture) to the duration and extent of the uptrend for the past 6 years.

In addition to the long-term uptrend being more powerful than the shorter-term downtrend, notice how the price action of $GLD has perfectly held support of the 20-period exponential moving average (the beige line) for the past three months. While doing so, price action also tightened up dramatically, creating a volatility contraction that should soon lead to a significant volatility contraction. Checking the volume pattern, we also notice that volume declined dramatically during the consolidation of the past several months. This tells us the sellers have been drying up, thereby making it easier for $GLD to eventually break out and attempt to resume its dominant upward trend. Finally, because $GLD is a commodity ETF, it has very low correlation with the direction of the main stock market indexes. That’s why we do not view this trade as having relative weakness to the broad market.

Overall, we like the technical setup for a momentum-based swing trade buy entry into $GLD, but we will patiently wait for a proper entry point first.

Just my 2 cents...hope you found it useful.

 

[Just4Fun]

You've obviously put in the hours over this stuff.

Ofcourse, conditions change and I change my opinions with them. I can be wrong too. I don't deny it. I was bullish on gold, turned bearish and I may well turn bullish again. But not just yet.

However, if you can also put date / price of gold when comments were made and subsequent movements in gold it would be better piece of accurate work. Do you not think?


Since your attention to detail is so **** poor you obviously missed this point. For your reference...
I entered this blogg on 3rd of Dec when gold was 1760 just at turn of the month coming off from 1800s.

In May it reached 1530s.

I predicted this on 3rd of Dec #7

NT came in thrashing this comment and he has been hounding me since. See post #12


You two obviously come form the same piece of cloth.



By the way - distribution of gas masks in Israel to all it's popullation coupled with possible WMD falling into terrorist hands from Syria is being taken very seriously. There is constant chatter about a strike on Iran just before the elections. Iran also arming Hezbollah. Syria as I mentioned few weeks earlier has the potential for escalating rapidly.

I still hold the view there is no need for QE3 and Bernanke is either talking up the markets or talking down the dollar.

The difference between me and you guys is I am an open book and I clearly state my opinions. I'm also happy to be wrong and correct my stance.

We'll have to wait and see.



Either way I still fail to understand whilst reading, current affairs and economics is just an interest for me... if you two are big swingers - WTF you two meddling with someone inconsequential as me. Bee in your bonnet just doesn't say it.

I have just discovered they are THREE, not TWO of them..
This gets funnier and funnier....so I've got to be right about NT being a poser and a bulls#itter...

We wan to see PROOF.
WE want to see NT make accurate calls in Gold.
We want these calls to show the ENTRY PRICE, the TIME OF ENTRY in GMT and the PRICE and TIME of EXIT, also in GMT.



Or is this TOO MUCH TO ASK ?

 

[Atilla]

I have just discovered they are THREE, not TWO of them..
This gets funnier and funnier....so I've got to be right about NT being a poser and a bulls#itter...

We wan to see PROOF.
WE want to see NT make accurate calls in Gold.
We want these calls to show the ENTRY PRICE, the TIME OF ENTRY in GMT and the PRICE and TIME of EXIT, also in GMT.



Or is this TOO MUCH TO ASK ?

Who do you think is the third?

Because I'm trying to figure out why these two hell bent on talking gold up and hounding anyone who disagrees with them?

I can only suspect they have an agenda or very strong personal vested interest.


NT is requesting $50,000 to have his account audited.
Payment in gold to be deposited with Escrow...

Who on earth cares as to what position the poor dude is holding. WTF are these guys on.


I think he has a crush on me...

This guy needs some serious help. :idea:

 

[Atilla]

Re: My technical analysis on $GLD (Gold ETF). Time to buy again?

fwiw just like to add my opinion that the expected QE should be approached with caution. Whilst I agree it may well spur it on and is bullish for gold - unless inflation gets going any rises in gold likely to be short lived.

I got the inflation factor wrong on QE and not seen it rise as much as I envisaged back in in the last two three years when discussing hyper-inflation. Never quite understood the transmission mechanism.

I still believe, as and when economies recover and demand for oil takes the price up, dollar will recover and investors will switch assets away from gold into dollars and equities.

Short term gold may test 1700 but no certainty in the rise as yet.

One potential ETF trade entry on our radar screen this week is SPDR Gold Trust ($GLD), a commodity ETF that tracks the price of spot gold futures. We have not discussed trading this Gold ETF for a long time because it has been in correction mode, retracing from its all-time high, for nearly a year. It has also been rather flat for the past several months. However, upon closer examination of the big picture, we see that momentum of $GLD may now be reversing, which could provide for a solid swing trading opportunity on the long side. To begin with, notice the breakout above the 200-day moving average that occurred just last week:

As you can see, $GLD rallied to close above major resistance of its 200-day moving average (on August 22) for the first time since March of this year. Increasing volume, which rose above its 50-day average level, helped to confirm the move. In the subsequent two days that followed the breakout above its 200-day MA, $GLD traded in a tight, sideways range. However, although such price action is bullish, the daily chart pattern presently does not yet provide us with a clearly defined buy entry point and level for setting a stop price. For that, we would need to see at least a one or two-day pullback that ideally forms a reversal candle. If that occurs, the levels for setting our buy trigger and stop prices would be much more clearly defined. As annotated in the chart above, we would ideally like to see a quick pullback to near new support of its 200-day MA (the orange line), presently just above the $160 level. This would form a bull flag chart pattern. Another reason we would first like to see a minor price retracement from current levels before buying is that the long-term monthly chart interval shows us that $GLD is actually running into resistance of its downtrend line from its September 2011 high:

If $GLD is bumping into resistance of a downtrend line that has been in place for nearly one full year, one may be wondering why we would be considering trading this ETF on a pullback before it actually breaks out above resistance of that downtrend line. There are several reasons. Perhaps most importantly, one must remember the basic tenet of technical analysis that states a longer-term trend always holds more weight than a shorter-term trend. Therefore, even though $GLD is kissing resistance of a downtrend line that is nearly 12 months old, notice more importantly that this Gold ETF has clearly been in a dominant uptrend since at least 2006. As such, technical analysis dictates that the odds favor an eventual resumption of that multi-year uptrend. Although the current one-year pullback off the high has been rather lengthy, it was merely proportionate (in the big picture) to the duration and extent of the uptrend for the past 6 years.

In addition to the long-term uptrend being more powerful than the shorter-term downtrend, notice how the price action of $GLD has perfectly held support of the 20-period exponential moving average (the beige line) for the past three months. While doing so, price action also tightened up dramatically, creating a volatility contraction that should soon lead to a significant volatility contraction. Checking the volume pattern, we also notice that volume declined dramatically during the consolidation of the past several months. This tells us the sellers have been drying up, thereby making it easier for $GLD to eventually break out and attempt to resume its dominant upward trend. Finally, because $GLD is a commodity ETF, it has very low correlation with the direction of the main stock market indexes. That’s why we do not view this trade as having relative weakness to the broad market.

Overall, we like the technical setup for a momentum-based swing trade buy entry into $GLD, but we will patiently wait for a proper entry point first.

Just my 2 cents...hope you found it useful.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

If US data picks up and we see a reversal of the the more recent Dovish language from the Fed, there will be blood in the Gold market imo. I don't think it will be pretty if a set of circumstances like that pushes it below all that $1500 support.

I'm eagerly awaiting the Jackson Hole event, which comes after the next big jobs report, for a bit more clarity.

 

[rsh01]

However, if you can also put date / price of gold when comments were made and subsequent movements in gold it would be better piece of accurate work. Do you not think?

re a lot of work for the post? if you count going back 8 pages reading vacuous statements as a lot of work then pity you. however, the editing part was in fact quite tricky - what do i/dont i include, too many to choose from.

do you want me to edit in the dates? if you're serious i can do this easily. i only went back to page 9 for the quotes - which is approx mid june 2012 - you know where price went sideways for the next 2 & a bit mths. reading anymore of you posts in one go makes me queasy.

you clearly hadnt noticed.....the dates are fairly immaterial - thats why i didnt bother to put them in - the post was highlighting your flawed knowledge on fundamentals, & your arrogant nature......which you have consistently filled this thread with. do you want me to repeat these - your flawed statements & the "this will happen" stuff, examples are in my preceding post so pls go back to that.

oh ok, heres one, posted aug 15th:

Not much happening at the mo. I see gold as clinging on a mountainside for dear life

:clap::clap::clap:

p.s. i have just seen your last post admitting an error in judgement, progress. and fwiw i agreed with your TA analysis .
p.p.s. what i was most shocked about is both of you were having a fairly platonic discussion in a lot of posts. dont you just love forum 'banter'.

 

[Atilla]

re a lot of work for the post? if you count going back 8 pages reading vacuous statements as a lot of work then pity you. however, the editing part was in fact quite tricky - what do i/dont i include, too many to choose from.

do you want me to edit in the dates? if you're serious i can do this easily. i only went back to page 9 for the quotes - which is approx mid june 2012 - you know where price went sideways for the next 2 & a bit mths. reading anymore of you posts in one go makes me queasy.

you clearly hadnt noticed.....the dates are fairly immaterial - thats why i didnt bother to put them in - the post was highlighting your flawed knowledge on fundamentals, & your arrogant nature......which you have consistently filled this thread with. do you want me to repeat these - your flawed statements & the "this will happen" stuff, examples are in my preceding post so pls go back to that.

oh ok, heres one, posted aug 15th:



:clap::clap::clap:

p.s. i have just seen your last post admitting an error in judgement, progress. and fwiw i agreed with your TA analysis .
p.p.s. what i was most shocked about is both of you were having a fairly platonic discussion in a lot of posts. dont you just love forum 'banter'.

FFS what are you guys on?

Let me get this straight. In post #11 your buddy comes along. Says F.All and dumps on me. Subsequently gold drops from 1760 to 1530 as predicted.

You go through all bleeding pages to carry out some kind assessment that I don't know what I'm talking about.

Geeeshh you two are real class act.




PS tell that dork buddy of yours to take those gold sovereigns off the public pages as he will be inviting every criminal tom dick and harry to burgle his house and torture him in the process.



Say hello to Tweedle Dum