Gold 2011/12

[new_trader]

So I thought this may be an opportunity for you to explain why gold is continuing to go down despite considerable liquidity being presented to avoid the Euro crises. ECB printing presses haven't stopped really since I said when at the precipice they will print. With the new €600bn we've now exceeded a trillion.

Central Banks Manipulate Gold Markets - CNBC

I wouldn't rule this out because they tried the same thing with the London gold pool, which eventually collapsed. I'm not bothered because as I say, the free market always wins in the end. In the meantime I am happy for them to keep prices down so that I can buy more of it cheaply.

One thing is for sure, Governments and Central banks wouldn't hate the public owning gold and attempt to manipulate the price if it was only war that drives the price

 

[Atilla]

Central Banks Manipulate Gold Markets - CNBC

I wouldn't rule this out because they tried the same thing with the London gold pool, which eventually collapsed. I'm not bothered because as I say, the free market always wins in the end. In the meantime I am happy for them to keep prices down so that I can buy more of it cheaply.

One thing is for sure, Governments and Central banks wouldn't hate the public owning gold and attempt to manipulate the price if it was only war that drives the price

It is a possibility as I can imagine people will try and manipulate anything they can to tilt the table in their favour.

However, on the technicals we are making lower highs and there is a massive narrowing wedge pointing to big falls for gold in the long term.

Still very bearish and 1450 is in targets range. I look to shorting gold off the rises rather than buying the dips. I feel this is a safer bet for me.

 

[new_trader]

It is a possibility as I can imagine people will try and manipulate anything they can to tilt the table in their favour.

However, on the technicals we are making lower highs and there is a massive narrowing wedge pointing to big falls for gold in the long term.

Still very bearish and 1450 is in targets range. I look to shorting gold off the rises rather than buying the dips. I feel this is a safer bet for me.

If gold breaks below $1530 then I can see it going to $1100-1200. The deadline for this scenario is end of August 2012. Gold is consolidating between $1530 -$1640 and I reckon it will break out from this range rather than break down. If it breaks down I will buy more, if not, I keep what I have. It's a bull market!

 

[Atilla]

If gold breaks below $1530 then I can see it going to $1100-1200. The deadline for this scenario is end of August 2012. Gold is consolidating between $1530 -$1640 and I reckon it will break out from this range rather than break down. If it breaks down I will buy more, if not, I keep what I have. It's a bull market!

NT for the first time in a long while I agree with you on the numbers. However, not sure about buying more of it.

Whilst I see $1000 as line in the sand it can drop even further. Just like when gold dropped from $450 (having maintained this level for some time) to $250 once upon a blue moon. It is highly speculative and timing is everything.

Here is a quick chart and ever since the 1800s clearly got rejected I've gone off gold. I think the resistance line whether at 1530-70 is immaterial really as LHs pointing to a breach of support.

It may have one last go at breaching 1640-1700 but I suspect it will fail based on full recovery of global markets.

 

[Atilla]

This could lead to becoming significant confrontation as Iran gets increasingly desperate assuming it can't bypass the sanctions placed against it.

Iran drafts bill to block Hormuz for Gulf oil tankers | Reuters

 

[dan1986ccfc]

Long Gold @ 1576 after price bounced off the short term upward trend line twice
Added to position upon break out of wedge at 1621.

Eagerly await the upcoming Fed Reserve announcement on QE which may see it take off again :clover:

 

[dan1986ccfc]

Gold down to 1594. Not worried... yet

 

[Atilla]

Gold down to 1594. Not worried... yet

I'm not convinced on the upside - as before...

Despite the Syrian / Iranian factors as well as Iraq's rising temperature no movement in oil or gold to the upside... Even with all that talk of QE and free money from the ECB.

What will it take to shift gold higher?

On the contrary - in the event of positive news on all three fronts you can expect gold to tank but oil in which case may rise.

Tough call right now. Don't forget NFP numbers on Friday either.


Anyhow, leave the news/noise well alone and look at the technical charts. Unless 1700 is breached clearly - not much bull in gold imho.

 

[dan1986ccfc]

Just to summarise then. I got out of my long position when price failed to break previous resistance in the 1630 area. +44 on first position and broke even on the second position.

I then rushed into a short position based on this. Regretted the decision almost immediately but held on and placed the stop just above 1630.

The price has now rejected 1630 area again, I make it a quintuple top on the daily chart , and I wonder now whether we're going to see the lows Atilla talked about earlier in the year :smart:

 

[Atilla]

Just to summarise then. I got out of my long position when price failed to break previous resistance in the 1630 area. +44 on first position and broke even on the second position.

I then rushed into a short position based on this. Regretted the decision almost immediately but held on and placed the stop just above 1630.

The price has now rejected 1630 area again, I make it a quintuple top on the daily chart , and I wonder now whether we're going to see the lows Atilla talked about earlier in the year :smart:

It's a tough call for gold at the moment but I'm still bearish.

Despite all the bad news and outlook no move up. As before if any good news comes along I think it will pretty much tank at speed.

Other than Syrian/Iranian crises nothing likely to move it imo.

Will European bond bailout or printing move gold??? Personally, I don't think so as no impact on dollar other than strengthen it.

Will US QE3 have an impact on gold??? Yes but unlikely as there is no need for QE3 imo.


Not much happening at the mo. I see gold as clinging on a mountainside for dear life. Charts pointing to narrowing bearish wedge too, unless 1700s breached.

Steady as she blows off...

 

[isatrader]

Don't forget the fundamental seasonal factors with Gold that often drive the prices around this time of year once the summer doldrums have finished. I can't remember the exact figures, but the Indian Wedding season makes up a large percentage of physical demand for gold each year and begins picking up pace around September each year. Last year was an exception because it had already gone parabolic before then.

I went long gold and silver yesterday.

Here's the last article Zeal did on the 10 year seasonals last November: http://www.zealllc.com/2011/goldseas6.htm

 

[Arbu]

It's a tough call for gold at the moment but I'm still bearish.

Despite all the bad news and outlook no move up. As before if any good news comes along I think it will pretty much tank at speed.

Other than Syrian/Iranian crises nothing likely to move it imo.

Will European bond bailout or printing move gold??? Personally, I don't think so as no impact on dollar other than strengthen it.

Will US QE3 have an impact on gold??? Yes but unlikely as there is no need for QE3 imo.


Not much happening at the mo. I see gold as clinging on a mountainside for dear life. Charts pointing to narrowing bearish wedge too, unless 1700s breached.

Steady as she blows off...

I agree. Plus if you're looking for a safe haven why buy gold when you could buy CHF at an artificially cheap rate at the moment? But gold is having a bumper day today.

 

[new_trader]

It is a possibility as I can imagine people will try and manipulate anything they can to tilt the table in their favour.

However, on the technicals we are making lower highs and there is a massive narrowing wedge pointing to big falls for gold in the long term.

Still very bearish and 1450 is in targets range. I look to shorting gold off the rises rather than buying the dips. I feel this is a safer bet for me.

At the time of writing this, Gold is trading around US$1640 (+1.24% ). I’ve searched all the media sites around the web and on TV but I can’t find anything about a new war that has erupted. After all of your bearish opinions and analysis you appear to be a deer caught in the headlights. You will let us know when you put your money where your mouth is and actually short gold for its huge decline that you have been forecasting, won't you?

It seems you are happy to tell everyone else to sell their gold whilst you sit on your hands. Let me guess, you’re afraid the US and Israel will attack Iran and take out your protective stop...

 

[rsh01]

I agree. Plus if you're looking for a safe haven why buy gold when you could buy CHF at an artificially cheap rate at the moment?

hi arbu,
dont know myself, maybe you should be directing that question to the CBs who seem to love the shiny stuff of late. Could it be because they are inflating away fiat currencies? & more inflation to come (hidden by fake govt inflation figs) with one last humongous CTRL + P?

Business Line : Industry & Economy / Banking : Central banks on gold buying spree

only china know how much gold they have as they have yet to provide accurate inventories. what with holding so much fiat debt thats not such a bad hedge, do you not reckon?

plus its almost widely known now that the PM markets are manipulated by the fiat govts & their partners in crime (TBTF banks) to suppress gold prices, and gold has still rallied. if it was a free market (forgotten what these are) some people are speculating gold should be nearer $3,000/oz, some at $10,000. Again who knows.

The price of gold has been manipulated. This is more scandalous than Libor – Telegraph Blogs

 

[Atilla]

At the time of writing this, Gold is trading around US$1640 (+1.24% ). I’ve searched all the media sites around the web and on TV but I can’t find anything about a new war that has erupted. After all of your bearish opinions and analysis you appear to be a deer caught in the headlights. You will let us know when you put your money where your mouth is and actually short gold for its huge decline that you have been forecasting, won't you?

It seems you are happy to tell everyone else to sell their gold whilst you sit on your hands. Let me guess, you’re afraid the US and Israel will attack Iran and take out your protective stop...

You are too hasty dude always keen to get your end away prematurely. Take it easy and see the outcome...

I'll change my sentiment if gold bursts through 1700.

I did point out the concern Israel has about chemical weapons re:Syria. Obama recently said chemical weapons is line in the sand for US. The proxy war has the capacity to escalate if the self announced WMD falls into terrorist hands.

You obviously haven't been following the news or don't know what is important and what not. Always said you lacked intelligent comprehension.

There is also the news Israel may attack Iran just before the US elections. Israel to strike Iran as window of opportunity narrows? — RT I don't believe they will and it would be very foolish to do so but make of it what you will.

You should be very cautious though as a new run on equities is about to start and gold will fall. This is just for mugs to buy up before the next big fall. Watch resistance in the 1700s.


Still very scratchy NT. You have a festering wound my friend... How much is your loss in gold now since you've been buying up in the 1800s and the falls as per your past blogs. I guess these must be a buying opportunity for you... Go ahead and buy some more, knock your self out in gold but do it with style...

 

[new_trader]

You are too hasty dude always keen to get your end away prematurely. Take it easy and see the outcome...

I'll change my sentiment if gold bursts through 1700.

I did point out the concern Israel has about chemical weapons re:Syria. Obama recently said chemical weapons is line in the sand for US. The proxy war has the capacity to escalate if the self announced WMD falls into terrorist hands.

You obviously haven't been following the news or don't know what is important and what not. Always said you lacked intelligent comprehension.

There is also the news Israel may attack Iran just before the US elections. Israel to strike Iran as window of opportunity narrows? — RT I don't believe they will and it would be very foolish to do so but make of it what you will.

You should be very cautious though as a new run on equities is about to start and gold will fall. This is just for mugs to buy up before the next big fall. Watch resistance in the 1700s.


Still very scratchy NT. You have a festering wound my friend... How much is your loss in gold now since you've been buying up in the 1800s and the falls as per your past blogs. I guess these must be a buying opportunity for you... Go ahead and buy some more, knock your self out in gold but do it with style...

Just let us know when you go short...if you ever do.

"I'll change my sentiment if gold bursts through 1700."

The big gold bear will change his mind if gold goes up...hilarious...

 

[rsh01]

You should be very cautious though as a new run on equities is about to start

can you be any more vague? and presumptious? btw equities have been rallying since early '09.....please define a 'new run'.

Still very scratchy NT.

*cough cough*

 

[new_trader]

can you be any more vague? and presumptious? btw

That is his tactic. Whichever way the price of gold goes he will claim he was right. In reality, he is no different to 'the public'...he gets bearish on the way down and bullish on the way up...

 

[rsh01]

That is his tactic. Whichever way the price of gold goes he will claim he was right. In reality, he is no different to 'the public'...he gets bearish on the way down and bullish on the way up...

...and gold is still in an uptrend in the long term (thats not a presumption/opinion).

buying gold is imo an investment for life, for your children....this is the only commodity which has kept its value through hundreds of years. fiat currencies have not. to be spoken of as an incorrect speculative punt cos there 'could' be a run in equities in a defunct global economy is laughable.

the next QE is, in some peoples opinion, already priced in. imo equities will go higher from here, but it will be short term (a few months max) on the back of massive QE, and anyone buying a commodity in this time which has held out to be the most reliable form of tender mankind has ever known can only be classified dumb by the ill informed.

CBs are buying gold, yet bernanke says gold is not a currency. he also said the housing market was not a bubble in '07, and much more BS.

 

[new_trader]

BTW, just to give Atilla a bit of a clue, the price of gold and equities have been rising and falling almost in harmony with one another. That tells me that this is a case of inflationary expectations rather than one of real economic recovery. The smart money is putting their wealth into REAL ASSETS that Governments cannot debase.

As for war, everyone in the world except Atilla understands that WAR IS INFLATIONARY...that is why when countries have been on a gold standard they suspended specie payments during war. They didn’t use the gold to build bullets , bombs and tanks...I don’t expect Atilla to understand, nor will he ever understand that he does not understand.