Gold 2011/12

[Atilla]

I think there may be a correction coming from this point.

May short Silver.

Well if 1760s aren't breached in any convincing pattern we will have made yet another higher low as well as having made lower lows since last August.

Despite all the pooh and gloom, trifle wars and Iran's supposed nukes gold ain't movin...

We still have to test the lows in the absense of higher highs. Just the way it is. If the sun ain't rising in the East it must be setting in the West...

 

[YouAreNotFree]

In addition to technicals I think just about everyone and his mother has bought from the December lows. Is anyone left to buy? There's been a near 40% move in Silver and $250 upswing in Gold. Without taking breath. I can't imagine Mr market will let them all those buyers off so easily.

Bernanke has talked himself hoarse too. I don't think there's anything left for him to say that could initiate a new wave of buying. I refuse to to rule that out though.

 

[Atilla]

In addition to technicals I think just about everyone and his mother has bought from the December lows. Is anyone left to buy? There's been a near 40% move in Silver and $250 upswing in Gold. Without taking breath. I can't imagine Mr market will let them all those buyers off so easily.

Bernanke has talked himself hoarse too. I don't think there's anything left for him to say that could initiate a new wave of buying. I refuse to to rule that out though.

Well I wouldn't go that far as geopolitical tensions can quickly get it beyond 1800.

However, sabre rattling about Iran is all a lot of hype. Once Syria goes democratic the pressure will further pile on Iran. Wait for the next elections and then see the fireworks.

Outright war can't be won with Iran. But the democratic switch is viable proposition. Watch this space.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

What worries me in terms of Silver is this Sprott guy.

Apparently he is in the market for $1.5 bn worth of physical Silver. I don't know how much buying he has done or if he has even started, but that is an awful lot for a market this small.

This is why I like my very short term trades, I get to find out if I am right or wrong pretty sharpish.

 

[YouAreNotFree]

CME Cuts Gold, Silver, Platinum And Copper Margins | ZeroHedge

Yep, I think I'll stick to intraday stuff.

 

[Atilla]

I think gold is getting ready to blow off.

1650s will be tested soon along with 1600.

Entry @ 1744, SL @ 1764

1st Target @ 1700
2nd Target @ 1650
3rd Target @ 1615


Strap your selves in guys it may be a hairy ride

Trade management kicking in. In my opinion - gold is still set to drop but bears may get taken out first before the imminent fall.

Sept / Nov / Feb lower highs look like brilliant technical setup to me.

If SL is breached it will attempt 1800 before falling back down to 1600-1500s in due course.

Anyhow...

1. Closed 50% position @ 1722.8
2. Moving SL to 1754.


Steady as she goes...

 

[YouAreNotFree]

What worries me in terms of Silver is this Sprott guy.

Apparently he is in the market for $1.5 bn worth of physical Silver. I don't know how much buying he has done or if he has even started, but that is an awful lot for a marke

I found out he bought $300 million worth in January, and over the period of time he was buying the price increased $4. Obviously not all down to him but that was how it played out.

 

[Atilla]

Trade management kicking in. In my opinion - gold is still set to drop but bears may get taken out first before the imminent fall.

Sept / Nov / Feb lower highs look like brilliant technical setup to me.

If SL is breached it will attempt 1800 before falling back down to 1600-1500s in due course.

Anyhow...

1. Closed 50% position @ 1722.8
2. Moving SL to 1754.


Steady as she goes...

SL hit. All position closed. Up +112pips.

Still don't see gold rising much. Will continue looking for shorting opportunities.

 

[Pnty]

Are you guys also trading options on gold? I've come across with two companies lately that are actively trading commodities futures options. One of them is http://libertytradinggroup.com/ and the second one is http://spadacapital.com/. The latter publishes every Sunday also trade of the week and analysis of options trading.

Any thoughts on shorting options?

 

[dan1986ccfc]

Back in on Gold @ 1542.
Looks like it may be bouncing off of the previous support areas of 1520's

 

[Atilla]

Back in on Gold @ 1542.
Looks like it may be bouncing off of the previous support areas of 1520's

Yes some bounce is likely but beware - safety of choice right now seems to be the dollar.

As economies recover and second dip clears into distant horizons gold is likely to continue fall.

Not so bullish anymore. 1200-1450 also on horizon for gold.

Proceed with tight SL imho.

 

[dan1986ccfc]

Thanks Atilla, I appreciate your input into this thread and will continue to read, with interest, your insightful posts on other topics.

I have used a tight stop and my target is the 1580/1600 area.

 

[SuddenDeath]

Thanks Atilla, I appreciate your input into this thread and will continue to read, with interest, your insightful posts on other topics.

I have used a tight stop and my target is the 1580/1600 area.

hi there is a channel on youtube called kitconews they deal with gold price a lot.

KitcoNews - YouTube

Gold Bulls Have Heavy Lifting to Do: Technically Speaking w/ Jim Wyckoff - May 11, 2012 - YouTube

 

[Arbu]

Is part of the reason gold has come down since last September that the Swiss Franc is now a more attractive haven given the SNB's euro peg? So stick your money in that instead of in gold.

 

[Atilla]

Back in on Gold @ 1542.
Looks like it may be bouncing off of the previous support areas of 1520's

Good call Dan.

 

[dan1986ccfc]

Where is Gold going now?

There has been a significant bounce back off of the downward trendline on the daily chart (1620-1640) area. I am short from 1592. Annoyed as my target was 1560 which was hit during the asian session at 0400 uk time. Must use a limit level!

IMO I can't see Gold falling lower than the 1540 area, but I am starting to wonder whether Atillas original prediction of 1450 may prove correct.

 

[Atilla]

Where is Gold going now?

There has been a significant bounce back off of the downward trendline on the daily chart (1620-1640) area. I am short from 1592. Annoyed as my target was 1560 which was hit during the asian session at 0400 uk time. Must use a limit level!

IMO I can't see Gold falling lower than the 1540 area, but I am starting to wonder whether Atillas original prediction of 1450 may prove correct.

Did you also get to read my comment on the repu I gave you on the 16th of May?

In the absence of wars or dollar demise I wouldn't speculate on gold going up by much at all.

 

[new_trader]

In the absence of wars or dollar demise I wouldn't speculate on gold going up by much at all.

Genius...if the dollar goes down, gold will go up, if it doesn't then it won't. You haven't given a forecast, all you've done is explain the 'ABC' of gold price movement. Every 3rd moron knows what drives the price of gold, all you've done is given a forecast so that no matter what happens you can say you were right.

Atilla still hasn't figured out that the dollar is just another fiat currency and its value is no longer defined by a weight of gold or silver. Like all fiat currencies it will eventually go down to its instrisic value, why should a trend that has been going for almost 100 years suddenly end?

Atilla has been telling me to sell my gold...no way!

 

[Atilla]

Genius...if the dollar goes down, gold will go up, if it doesn't then it won't. You haven't given a forecast, all you've done is explain the 'ABC' of gold price movement. Every 3rd moron knows what drives the price of gold, all you've done is given a forecast so that no matter what happens you can say you were right.

Atilla still hasn't figured out that the dollar is just another fiat currency and its value is no longer defined by a weight of gold or silver. Like all fiat currencies it will eventually go down to its instrisic value, why should a trend that has been going for almost 100 years suddenly end?

Atilla has been telling me to sell my gold...no way!

You are a very bitter and frustrated man NT.

I think you are just pissed at having sold your properties and invested in gold.

You should have exited gold when $2K got rejected and $18 failed. But I'm guessing greed clouded you superb analytical skills...:cheesy:

You also had the brains to take your assets abroad where currency fluctuation may have worked against you.

You know as they say **** happens - to some more than others.

Hope you enjoy your just deserts.

Don't wish to rub salt into your wounds but just now everything I touch is turning into gold.

I hope you'll revisit your outbursts when gold touches 1450 in the next year or two. :smart:

 

[new_trader]

You are a very bitter and frustrated man NT.

I think you are just pissed at having sold your properties and invested in gold.

You should have exited gold when $2K got rejected and $18 failed. But I'm guessing greed clouded you superb analytical skills...:cheesy:

You also had the brains to take your assets abroad where currency fluctuation may have worked against you.

You know as they say **** happens - to some more than others.

Hope you enjoy your just deserts.

Don't wish to rub salt into your wounds but just now everything I touch is turning into gold.

I hope you'll revisit your outbursts when gold touches 1450 in the next year or two. :smart:

I'm not bitter about anything and gold at $1450 wouldn't bother me at all, but nice try at making this personal.

"In the absence of wars or dollar demise I wouldn't speculate on gold going up by much at all. "

Yes, and in the absence of technological advancement I wouldn't speculate on tech stocks going up by much at all. There wasn't much technological advancement last month but I've got a good feeling about next week...

As for the dollar...Do you think there was any dollar demising going on last week? What about next week? Do you think there will be any dollar demisement between September and December this year?

I think the Central planners will adopt a sound money policy for a couple of months and that will push gold down to its previous support level, by that time the economy will tip back into recession in which case the Central planners will put the monetary pedal to the metal and begin dollar demisement again. That will see gold move up to its previous high, but they will adaopt a sound money policy before gold breaks out to a new high, so be careful.

Looking at a 10minute gold chart for this week it looks like a good scalping opportunity on the long side if war breaks out...somewhere...