Gold 2011/12

[YouAreNotFree]

volume is relative and contextual, for me, nothing to do with confidence......either understand the play with the volume at the play or no trade taken....

What is volume?

Imo, it is something measures the success of the auction process. Fair?

For example, if prices are moving higher and this is encouraging more activity, should we not have more confidence in said move than if activity (ie volume) is decreasing?

 

[Joules MM1]

What is volume?

Imo, it is something measures the success of the auction process. Fair?

For example, if prices are moving higher and this is encouraging more activity, should we not have more confidence in said move than if activity (ie volume) is decreasing?

your key word is confidence, not evidence, not relative bid or offer sizing, not pending or active volume......your word is confidence......

maybe what youre saying is the extent of knowledge about the play youre looking at, the specific phase and yes, the volume profile, vpoc, vwap, whatever, changes, it is the nature of the time and the nature of the targets for those players that decide....again, what is the reference of those who come to the auction for their own reasons? they have come to transact at these specific levels and if theyve come with confidence or not theyve come to transact....for me, my job is to interpret that......

 

[Joules MM1]

What is volume?

Imo, it is something measures the success of the auction process. Fair?

For example, if prices are moving higher and this is encouraging more activity, should we not have more confidence in said move than if activity (ie volume) is decreasing?

i appreciate the conversation

the game difference of break-out versus chop....they both reside within the confines of the next step larger size chop or break-out.....we are currently in a very large monthly chop in gold and i can point to evidence that says a major top has stamped itself because the biggest players want that even tho supply and demand is rarely superceded at this width, certainly with these swings.....who's playing at what height or depth? who's active at what time of month, week, day, hour, minute, seconds?

chop, that is, a ledge or a hinge or whatever theyre called, within a large swing carries characteristics, the simplest being ratios, extensions, inversions of lengths and those tell me to expect a trend break-out in the same direction, not an accummulation bottom, there was insignificant supply dump, not enough hands have been forced to purge or puke their longs and those who move trend wont reach upward when they can use time to weaken the traders who hold they supply they want.....these things are all relative to size of play, that is length of price swing as a percentage and they are relative to time..a tiny further is big cheese for some accounts and in the chop we're seeing today as minutea as it is, there is the same game being played......merely a liquidity vehicle for money to move money.....

the key is correct focus of the play right now, all that anecdotal stuff aside

 

[Joules MM1]

one of the things that keeps me on gold is simply it's rigidity or adherence to a group of ratios that play out regardless of what time chart i look at....obviously numerics of price length are not rigid....they key is context of the action and when/where in a relative size

gold on a daily and weekly basis is replete with ratios and the lowest time frame so the focus needs to be placed correctly, a 10 second time frame is only similar to a daily time frame in terms of percentages that are relative to that phase of play.....
the trade itself then needs to inline with that framework....a .5% pos size for a one minute trade set-up is vastly different to a 2% pos size for a daily swing or a book build....

all the evidence to transact is within the price...not all trades work and not all trades comes from this practise, only what's appropriate at that time

here are two vastly different plays although the lower time frames are now closed the larger one remains running until evidence presents to close.....

 

[Joules MM1]

on a day like to today (calendar) the lower price gets to breaking down the stronger the idea that it will swing up to retest the zone......there are a lot of feeders, mid-tiers money swashing around, tiny traps, tiny games.....there's defined high and low in the larger time frame, this is a captured game....theis tiny playing field has its own set of players different to the major players in the larger time frames.....i am trading today within the confines of their game...if there is a confidence it is within the idea that at the high price with chop down and at the low it will not break down today and set-up enough reverse plays to swing back up.......munch munch boney lunch etc etc......

 

[Joules MM1]

if there's a time for confidence to add to the break-down it's when the lowest time frame game breaks down, when the ratios simply look too distorted, the game has changed, there is more wieght, someone has stepped in to do business, they want to sell this zone before it gets away from them, they have a specific volume to transact, it appears in the timbre of the trade, something is simply different in price characteristics.....when a low is taken out it can be a head fake, for sure, but there needs to be signs before that to tell me a new game is on, new players have entered, a new or renewed phase has begun...likely to coincide with equities activity, general liquidity flows across other markets, not empirically necessarily and some instruments will be hint, again, context....at some point all convergences go flat or evolve to diverge.....

coffee.....

 

[Joules MM1]

What is volume?

Imo, it is something measures the success of the auction process. Fair?

For example, if prices are moving higher and this is encouraging more activity, should we not have more confidence in said move than if activity (ie volume) is decreasing?

volume is merely an expression of participation.....that's all....just because toyotas werent in high demand today doesnt mean the same model car wont be in high demand tomorrow if you add some cup holders....but additions or not, there needs to be a focus on when and where the volume comes.....what type of volume (bid/offer) is the biggest indicator outside of price, yes and transactions come off price, they always do, that's what the auction process is about, price alone.....everything comes back to price or it's (sense of) value before volume.......if a lot of volume prints bid/offer, bid/offer, the spread doesnt move, is that an indication to trade? not really, a block trade can be huge but it's not a reason to transact, but look for a long and a block trade causes a line break and the offer gets hit hard the longs pile in....volume itself is not a precurser to trade, even if it is an oft used excuse to trade.....

that is, imo and ime

 

[Joules MM1]

2 Technical Charts That Will Make Gold Investors Very Happy
Joe Weisenthal | 55 minutes ago

(cut n paste into your addy bar)
businessinsider.com/technical-analysis-on-gold-2012-12#ixzz2FaiDv3Iw

excerpt

The indicators suggest Gold has bottomed out (at 1522 last April/May) The rally has been parabolic since 2009, i.e. the break above the multi- year channel at 1045. Gold has never closed below the monthly moving average since then. It has been acting as a reliable support during any correction. It is at 1653 this month. The Stochastic indicator has settled within the bullish territory i.e. 70/75% for a long-time now (since mid- 2003).....

etc etc

 

[Joules MM1]

very interesting reading:

ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/12/07/1298491/capping-the-gold-price/

ftalphaville.ft.com/2012/12/20/1315162/whats-bugging-gold/?

 

[Joules MM1]

another one ....equality......luncheon size

 

[Joules MM1]

the trade was closed as price comes back to prev high volume area, a magnet where most bid offer consider value for this time of day of week of month etc....need to be warey not to get sucked into sky-chicken-falling and vice versa 2k-i's-going-up ......otherwise you end up trading more sir digby chicken ceaser

 

[Joules MM1]

another interesting read:

kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/19_Whistleblower_-_$3.5_Billion_Of_Paper_Used_To_Smash_Gold_Price.html

excerpt

...Keep in mind that $3.5 billion of paper gold was actually cleared in London yesterday. This selling was coordinated by the same bullion banks that are also active in the Comex. At the same time, they are rigging enough of a decline to cover shorts into capitulating longs on the Comex market...

 

[Joules MM1]

gold breaks down.....

note the convergence of ratios daily basis, where the original break-out upwardsx from the triangle compression to the high post Daghi/Bernanke and the recent downswing ratio meet at 1629/30 zone

 

[Joules MM1]

Sean Broderick discusses gold supply squeez from lack of new discoveries

video

uncommonwisdomdaily.com/how-the-slowdown-in-gold-discoveries-should-push-prices-up-2-15476#.UNMZ_TXYbJg.twitter

How the Slowdown in Gold Discoveries Should Push Prices Up | Uncommon Wisdom Daily

 

[Atilla]

Miserable wet soggy day in London but every cloud has a golden lining or something like that anyway...

 

[brewski1984]

It always makes me happy when Gold tanks like it has today. I don't have any position on it, I'm just jealous of all those people who have made loads of money buying Gold over the last few years.

 

[Atilla]

It always makes me happy when Gold tanks like it has today. I don't have any position on it, I'm just jealous of all those people who have made loads of money buying Gold over the last few years.

Expecting some kind of fight from the gold bulls at 1640.

Opportunity for more shorts.

No show - no game.

 

[Joules MM1]

Miserable wet soggy day in London but every cloud has a golden lining or something like that anyway...

wot big fat cheesy grin you wear , Atilla

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commodities/124202-silver-27.html#post2039380

 

[Atilla]

wot big fat cheesy grin you wear , Atilla

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commodities/124202-silver-27.html#post2039380

Ahhhh silver that's it.

I don't know but if I was an economist - I'd say the long term ratio between gold and silver is about to change.

Just a hunch.

 

[new_trader]

It always makes me happy when Gold tanks like it has today. I don't have any position on it, I'm just jealous of all those people who have made loads of money buying Gold over the last few years.

I can see you aren't the only one