Gold 2011/12

[Atilla]

Speaking of moisture, Peter Schiff was close to tears on his radio show today

He embarked on a lengthy diatribe about the failure of Gold and Silver to rally following the Fed details.

'Dumb 'this, 'stupid' that, 'hyperinflation' the other. He even mentioned for the first time ever (that I have heard- he always dismisses this conspiracy theory) that it could well be manipulation. Oh the stench of desperation

Bore off Peter mate, I'm not listening to your show anymore. It's the same old crap over and over.

You may have seen the hyperinflation thread on this site and confess I got that wrong. Acknowledged that sometime ago and swiftly moved away from it. I too was expecting more inflation than we have had. High unemployment suppressing wage increases. People trying to hold onto their jobs like an old man holding onto his coat in a gusty day...

I reckon it will be price of oil should it ever rise to 120-150s that will stoke the fires of inflation.

Not sure of Fed targeting unemployment and inflation though. Conflicting objectives there somewhat. Steady as she goes. Will deal with it as and when...

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...matic-post-fed-correction-hedge-fund-manager/

Festive cheers

 

[gzipped]

I opened a long position on gold while it was still around the 1500 mark in July. Up until recently, naively, I thought it would carry on going up and up with no major dips

Needless to say I lost a small sum of money when with a bit more nous I could have made a really tidy profit. Has been a real eye-opener trading gold, for me, as a beginner.

Anyway I was wondering what others thoughts are on Gold, December contract? I hear all sorts all day on Bloomberg from 'experts' who say Gold will be at $2000 by end of this year, by summer 2012 etc etc.

When would you jump back on the Gold bandwagon?



By the way I spreadbet and at the moment only concentrate on MA's

Thanks for reading, Dan

no one knows the future! I would use a technical trading system to enter/exit trades.

 

[Joules MM1]

1689 spot appears to be the uncle point for bulls today even though there were clear funds buying signals, that is, some funds were buying last thur/fri.....commercials remain heavy sell side....so if some other funds barf today/this week a small run downhill is going to develop.......

basing that opine on cot report and cash ratios.....

 

[Kardu]

Hello everybody

I'm new in the forum.

I have Gold and Palladium, my target is 1800 and 700 but I think that we will see gold do break up this levels.

Regards and good trades

I Sold my position in palladium Friday but I mantain my gold.

 

[Atilla]

I Sold my position in palladium Friday but I mantain my gold.

Gold at $1,200 in 2013 and other outrageous predictions by Saxo Bank - The Tell - MarketWatch

Outrageous indeed...

 

[MayZerG]

Gold just tapped the previous monthly low!

My TP at 1621 and 1590

 

[Atilla]

Gold just tapped the previous monthly low!

My TP at 1621 and 1590

I have targets of 1640, 1540 and 1440 waiting to be hit.

My strategy has been to short the rises for 2012 and will continue to do so in 13.

I can't see it falling much below 1440 at the moment but will need to appraise situ when those levels are hit.

 

[Joules MM1]

shtuff for traders

cut n paste http's into addy bar

Gold Testing 200-Day Moving Average
Tuesday, December 18, 2012 at 06:20PM

bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/12/18/gold-testing-200-day-moving-average.html

December 18, 2012
The @CFTC voted 5 to 0 to approve the interim final rules for swap dealers and major swap participants

cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/pr6470-12

interestingly and conversely all the rampant gold bulls who've got something to sell have suddenly become focused on silvers lack of supply and mine set-ups and not a word about gold......funny that!

 

[Kardu]

Gold at $1,200 in 2013 and other outrageous predictions by Saxo Bank - The Tell - MarketWatch

Outrageous indeed...

probably they are right, but I read "gold will fall..." since 2008
I think that the most likely is Gold reach new high... but...

 

[Joules MM1]

spot has failed to break the basic 38.2 level upwards.......this leaves open the nearside target of 1656

a lot of people commented that gold is driven down on low volume.....but......the logic fails to understand that if there are so many bulls around and the money managers want higher prices, as we saw them buying last week, then, doesnt low volume mean shorters can be easily killed too and a free ride north over the quiet trade period?........

outrageous numbers.....erm starter for 10, i'll take 600, thanks :whistling

 

[DDI]

am short gold at the moment (short term pos. from 1670 stop 1678)

Fundamentally the news should be so bullish for gold. If it doesn't go up under the current climate then I don't think it ever will!

 

[Joules MM1]

am short gold at the moment (short term pos. from 1670 stop 1678)

Fundamentally the news should be so bullish for gold. If it doesn't go up under the current climate then I don't think it ever will!

care to define "climate" ?

do you think gold is

because:

A): the FOMC is spending a few billion already of the trillions it'll need to spend and has neary a budge in the inflation and barely holding up against the deflationary cycle

B): commercial hedgers and swaps want it to go south for when the real hyper scene develops at precisely the time most of the money managers and retail give up

C): you can't eat gold bars

D): you can't grow or yield from gold bars

E): silver ratio is so far behind and it's the real short supply with so fewer producing mines and less earmarked capital to open new mines (even tho in the US alone only 1 in 3000 mines goes into production)

F): any cocktail of the above

G): tungsten (lulz)

H): we're using fiat money and no ones said stop the presses (which neatly segways into number A .......A's a number isnt it....the Fed sez it is.....really....

 

[Joules MM1]

or ......and my fave

I): ......it's just a trade and price can go wherever and how far it wants .....it's just an excuse to move money......always has, always does ....etc etc woof doggy etc

 

[Atilla]

or ......and my fave

I): ......it's just a trade and price can go wherever and how far it wants .....it's just an excuse to move money......always has, always does ....etc etc woof doggy etc

Option D.

One can only do so many things with cash and investment to park ones cash are limited.

Equities or Gold ??? Equities right now offer greater opportunity for dividend and capital growth.

Watch the smart money walking away from gold... Dump the lot if not a % of holding...

 

[YouAreNotFree]

spot has failed to break the basic 38.2 level upwards.......this leaves open the nearside target of 1656

a lot of people commented that gold is driven down on low volume.....but......the logic fails to understand that if there are so many bulls around and the money managers want higher prices, as we saw them buying last week, then, doesnt low volume mean shorters can be easily killed too and a free ride north over the quiet trade period?........

outrageous numbers.....erm starter for 10, i'll take 600, thanks :whistling

More volume means you can have more confidence in the market activity. Typically, large volume would increase the odds that the larger and longer term players are involved. Low volume, smaller and shorter term.

What I think may be happening right now mostly alot of unwinding by the upward momentum chasers with some shorting imo. If you were long term bullish a year ago I'm not sure you would have changed your mind as of late.

Like I've said before, we're in a 1550-1800 balance so trade it that way until something changes.

People shouldn't lose perspective either. Gold is still up about 5% for the year and Silver 10%. What's that? 11 or 12 consecutive years?

 

[YouAreNotFree]

Another promising scenario would be a breakout to the upside which fails (note the last failed b/o I posted about a few pages ago), especially as a result of FOMC 'dissapointment' on Wednesday.

That's what happened. Dejavu.

Two arrows point to two gaps down back into balance- failed breakouts. These are areas where you will get sell stops hit, shorting and liquidation to boot. The inital target once you re-enter these balance areas is the lower extreme. Beyond that its a case of monitor and adjust.

 

[Came2Win]

Hey People. Might be interesting for you. Wanted to share fundamental insight by an expert macro analyst on the recent gold price movements.

Cheers.

 

[Atilla]

Hey People. Might be interesting for you. Wanted to share fundamental insight by an expert macro analyst on the recent gold price movements.

Cheers.

Yep agree strongly. Good article. Entertaining read. Should set off some light bulbs flashing at least.

One question I have is what has happened to our regular gold bulls who continue to balance the arguments?

Either we are OT on the bearish side or as support for gold fades the next fall is likely to be much more on the wild side.

Strap your selves in for the ride of your lives

 

[Joules MM1]

More volume means you can have more confidence in the market activity. Typically, large volume would increase the odds that the larger and longer term players are involved. Low volume, smaller and shorter term.

What I think may be happening right now mostly alot of unwinding by the upward momentum chasers with some shorting imo. If you were long term bullish a year ago I'm not sure you would have changed your mind as of late.

Like I've said before, we're in a 1550-1800 balance so trade it that way until something changes.

People shouldn't lose perspective either. Gold is still up about 5% for the year and Silver 10%. What's that? 11 or 12 consecutive years?

thanks, sounds like thinking outloud.....

volume is relative and contextual, for me, nothing to do with confidence......either understand the play with the volume at the play or no trade taken....

as far as the number of years, each play is of it's own, again, context of plays within plays.....the people who held as long as they could going into 2000 with gold at $US252 would have said dont buy look back at the last decade......

of fat, much chewing, yoda

 

[Joules MM1]

found on the interlube:

twitternessmonster:

Bespoke ‏@bespokeinvest

If gold trades down $5+ tomorrow, it will be the first close below the 200-DMA since August. So much for strong seasonals.

ukarlewitz ‏@ukarlewitz

$GLD: Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) registered a bullish opinion of just 9% on a scale from zero to 100. Also, price at lower BB and RSI2 = 5

businessinsider.com/trader-tells-us-why-he-thinks-the-gold-sell-off-will-be-short-lived-2012-12?0=moneygame
A Trader's Take On The Selloff In Gold
Julia La Roche

excerpt:

Yesterday we posted some comments from a futures
trader about why he thinks gold is tanking. Since then, we've received a bunch of emails from traders sharing their thoughts about why gold is down.
This is a response we received this morning from David Flynn,
The Radar Trader, who has agreed to let us run his comments and charts below.
Check it out:
See the 60 min chart below showing Gold in Red and the
$ Index in Black. Note they are trading in tandem right now.

Now see the chart below of Gold (left axis) vs Federal Reserve Board (FRB) total assets (right axis)….Note that FRB total assets line has been very sideways this year…..The FED has committed to purchase $40Bn per month in MBS + $45Bn per month in Treasuries (QE). That’s a total of $1020Bn in QE next year, over $1 Trillion in balance sheet expansion. See right axis of chart below….That takes FRB total assets from roughly $2.9 Trillion to over $3.9Trillion.

If this does happen, the Gold selloff will be short lived. The market expects new QE in January. That is when the yield curve, it’s relationship with Gold and the $ will be important.