FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Recovering With Caution.

EURUSD: EUR halted its medium term weakness and turned higher the past week suggesting further upside. It will have to follow through higher in the new or risk a return to the 1.2911 level followed by the 1.2882 level where a halt could occur and turn it higher. However, if this level breaks, expect further declines to occur towards the 1.2700 level. On the upside, to continue its recovery it will have to extend it to the 1.3250 followed by the 1.3318 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its downside bias though recovering.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Pulls Backs And Tests The 94.45 Level

USDJPY: USDJPY may have pulled back and tested the 94.45 level on a gap today but continues to hold on to its broader upside medium term. As long as the 94.45 level holds as support, there is risk of an eventual return to the 96.70 level on ending its pullback. A cut through here will call for a run at the 98.00 level where a breach will target the 99.00 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support resides at the 94.45 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn it higher. Further down, support stands at the 93.50 level and then the 93.00 level. A cut through there will aim at the 92.00 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Hesitating Below Key Resistance.

AUDUSD: Although maintaining most of its recovery gains, AUDUSD still remains vulnerable. This view remains valid as long as it is unable to break and hold the 1.0374/1.0413 levels. A failure to do this could mean a return to the downside possibly towards the 1.0203 level. Below here if seen will turn attention to the 1.0114 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.0100 level. We expect this level to hold if tested thus turning the pair lower. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.0374 level where a break will aim at the 1.0400 level and then the 1.0457 level. All in all, the pair may be recovering but still remains vulnerable medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURJPY: Hesitating With Upside Bias.

EURJPY- While the cross may be vulnerable to the downside on corrective weakness, as long as it can hold above the 118.73 level, the risk is for it to return to the 126.03 level in the medium term. This could pave the way for a run at the 127.70 level. A loss of here will pave the way for a run at the 128.00 level followed by the 128.50 level and then the 129.00 level. Despite its bear threats, its broader medium term bias remains higher. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be for EURJPY to return to the 118.73 level, a tough call at its present price levels. Further down, support lies at its .382 Fib Ret at 117.48 level. We expect here to hold and turn the cross higher. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the medium term though corrective risks.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Bear Threat Remains, Targets The 1.2843 Level.

EURUSD: With EUR reversing most of its Wednesday gains, further downside is expected. This should target the 1.2800 level followed by the 1.2735 level and then the 1.2650 level. In order for the pair to halt its broader downtrend, it will have to return above the 1.2978 level. Above here will pave the way for a run at the 1.3134 level followed by its psycho resistance standing at the 1.3200 level. A turn above here should force further upside towards the 1.3300 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective downside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCAD: Continues To Consolidate With Upside Bias

USDCAD: With an attempt on the downside losing steam and the pair closing marginally lower on Thursday, we could see further upside risk. This is consistent with its broader upside bias now on hold. The risk is for it to return to the 1.0294 level where a violation will aim at the 1.0341 level. A break of here if seen will target the 1.0400 level with cut through here targeting the 1.0450 level and then the 1.0500 level. On the downside, support lies at the 1.0.180 level where a breach will turn focus to the 1.0100 level. A breather may occur here and turn it higher but if taken out, expect further downside towards the 1.0050 level and then the 1.0000 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the upside in the medium term though consolidating.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Recovery Risk Seen.

EURUSD: EUR’s recovery attempt remains in force but it continues to hold on to its weakness triggered from the 1.3710 level. It will have to follow through higher in the new week on its recovery or risk a return to the 1.2843 level followed by the 1.2800 level where a halt could occur and turn it higher. However, if this level breaks, expect further declines to occur towards the 1.2700 level. On the upside, to continue its recovery it will have to extend it to the 1.3250 followed by the 1.3318 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its downside bias though recovering.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GOLD: Bearish, Pressure Builds On Downside.

GOLD: GOLD reversed its Wednesday gains to close lower on Thursday, turning attention on the downside. As long as it holds below the 1,604/19 level, the risk remains to the downside. Support resides at the 1,576 level. A violation will pave the way for a run at the 1,530.00 level with a breach aiming at the 1,500.00 level, its psycho level. We expect a price hesitation to occur here if tested but if broken we could see further weakness towards the 1,478.05 level. Conversely, GOLD will have to break and hold above the 1,619 level to create scope for more upside. In such a case, the 1,669 level will be aimed at where a break will target the 1,695 level. A violation of here will call for a run at the 1,730 level. All in all, GOLD remains vulnerable.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Sees Sharp Decline, Eyes Further Downside.

EURUSD: With a sell off reversing its corrective recovery the past week, further weakness is likely in the new week. This leaves the pair targeting the 1.2700 level with a loss of here turning attention to the 1.2660 level and then the 1.2600 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2500 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.3047 level to annul its downside and turn attention to the 1.3250 followed by the 1.3318 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its downside bias

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCAD: Sells Off, Targets The 1.0099 Level.

USDCAD: Our 1.0099 target is now seen as the next support as USDCAD is seen weakening. A decisive break of here will set the stage for a run at the 1.0050 level where a halt may occur and turn higher. However, if this breaks, expect a decline towards its big psycho level at the 1.0000 level to occur. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The pair will have return above the 1.0294 level to halt its corrective downside where a violation will aim at the 1.0341 level. A break of here if seen will target the 1.0400 level with cut through here targeting the 1.0450 level and then the 1.0500 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the downside on correction.

 

[evertontrader]

Re: USDCAD: Sells Off, Targets The 1.0099 Level.

Weakening*

USDCAD: Our 1.0099 target is now seen as the next support as USDCAD is seen weakening. A decisive break of here will set the stage for a run at the 1.0050 level where a halt may occur and turn higher. However, if this breaks, expect a decline towards its big psycho level at the 1.0000 level to occur. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The pair will have return above the 1.0294 level to halt its corrective downside where a violation will aim at the 1.0341 level. A break of here if seen will target the 1.0400 level with cut through here targeting the 1.0450 level and then the 1.0500 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the downside on correction.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Outlook Higher Towards The 1.0496 and Beyond.

AUDUSD: With continued upside seen there is risk of a return to the 1.0496 level. This if seen will resume its offensive towards the 1.0550 level where a break will aim at the 1.0600 level and then the 1.0650 level. However, a failure of its present strength could see it turning lower towards the 1.0374/1.0413 levels. A reversal of roles may occur and turn it higher but if broken, expect further declines to occur towards the 1.0300 level. Further down, support stands at the 1.0203 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Rallies, Eyes The 96.12 Level.

USDJPY: With the pair turning strongly higher during early morning trading today, further upside offensive is likely towards the 96.12 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 96.70 level with a breach of here resuming its broader upside. Additionally, resistance lies at the 98.00 level and next the 99.00 level. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. Conversely, the pair will have to return to the 92.57 level to annul its present bullish offensive and turn attention to the 92.00 level, its psycho level. A breach of here will call for a run at the 91.50 with a break opening the door for a move lower towards its Feb 25’2013 low at 90.86 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Halts Decline, Sees Higher Recovery.

EURUSD: A reversal of its previous week losses has left the pair targeting further upside. This will leave the 1.3106 level as the next upside target with a cut through here calling for a run at the 1.3710 level. It will have to follow through higher in the new week on its recovery or risk a return to the 1.2843 level followed by the 1.2800 level where a halt could occur and turn it higher. However, if this level breaks, expect further declines to occur towards the 1.2700 level. On the upside, to continue its recovery it will have to extend it to the 1.3250 followed by the 1.3318 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its downside bias though recovering.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Rallies, Extends Upside Offensive.

USDJPY: With a strong rally seeing the pair continuing its past week upside offensive, further strength is likely in the days ahead. This leaves its big psycho level at 100.00 level as the next upside target were respite may occur and turn it lower. If this fails to happen expect more upside gains towards the 101.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 102.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. As long as it holds above the 94.45 level this view remains valid. On the downside, support lies at the 97.82 level where a violation if seen will call for a move lower towards the 96.70 level and then the 96.00 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURGBP- Weakens, Extends Its Bearishness.

EURGBP- The cross is currently seeing a third – day of declines, halting its correction recovery and turning focus to the 0.8462 level. This leaves the risk of further downside on the cards. In such a case, further weakness could be seen towards the 0.8350 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8300 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and poining lower suggesting further downside. The alternative scenario will be for EURGBP to continue its recovery and return to the 0.8520 level where a violation will call for a return to the 0.8575 level. A turn above here will turn focus to the 0.8686 level and next the 0.8814 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside in the short term

 

[elisab]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

The long term graph shows us a rather important resistance for UsdJpy; , it will be very difficult to overcome area 101 on the first try for UsdJpy. We could say that the BOJ was able to take UsdJpy back to pre-crisis subprime levels, but at the moment, the devaluation of the Yen may also find the resistance of other central banks. Attention to the trend of German exporters on the stock market; Volkswagen has lost more than 20% in the last two months and coincidentally, the bear market only begun when the BOJ extracted the bazooka. Is an ECB reaction coming?

 

[elisab]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

The corrective trend of GbpUsd may have come to an end. From the low of March 12th 1.4831, the rise was structured into three zigzag waves (A-B-C), in which C has almost matched A in wideness. The uptrend is now facing a series of resistances of absolute importance. The first one is represented by the 38.2% of retracement of the whole bear market 1.6389-1.4831; the second one is shown by the large (and solid) cloud defined by the Ichimoku technique. Therefore, it seems quite unlikely that GbpUsd will be able to rise above 1.55, so the present time is the best to enter short on the Cable.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Consolidation Sets In.

EURUSD: Though seen consolidating, its broader bias remains to the upside as long EUR can trade and hold above the 1.3030/04 levels. However, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3106/34 level to prevent a return to the 1.2900 level and then the 1.2750/35 levels, its key support levels. This if seen will target the 1.2700 level followed by the 1.2735 level and then the 1.2650 level. On the upside, to continue its recovery it will have to return above the 1.3106/34 levels followed by the 1.3250 and then the 1.3318 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective upside bias.

 

[elisab]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

5 bullish waves on EurAud! The stochastic indicates an overbought and therefore I would wait for the correction on the 200 days moving average to enter long. Is the bear market on Aud started?