GBPUSD: With a two-day (clearly seen on the daily chart) rally seeing the pair extending its recovery from the 1.6078 level, there is risk of further upside in the days ahead. This will leave the pair aiming at the 1.6306 level with a cut through here allowing for more upside towards the 1.6350 level. Above here will call for a run at the 1.6400 level and then the 1.6500 level. Its weekly RSI are bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the downside, support lies at the 1.6100 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.6000 level and next 1.5900 level. Further down, the 1.5827 level comes in as the next downside followed by the 1.5774/78 levels. On the whole, GBP continues to hold on to its upside bias in the medium.
EURUSD: With EUR on the verge of resuming its broader upside following its early morning rally, further upside offensive is expected in the days ahead. This leaves it targeting the 1.3307 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3350 level followed by the 1.3400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 1.3171/25 levels where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn it higher again. Further down, support is seen at the 1.3100 level followed by the 1.3000 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its broader medium term upside bias.
EURGBP- While EURGBP may be extending its weakness, its rising trendline support currently at 0.8067 level is likely to hold when tested. It is currently hesitating ahead of that level suggesting that a return above the 0.8242 level may occur on a hold at or above the mentioned trendline. Above the 0.8242 level could pave the way for a run at the 0.8300 level. Alternatively, support lies at the 0.8067 level where its trendline is located. Further down, the cross will have to break and hold below its trendline support (red) to put its broader upside bias in danger. In such a case, the 0.7960 level will be targeted. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside on correction.
USDJPY: Rallies, Pressure Builds On The 88.50/89.00 Levels.
USDJPY: A strong rally has seen the pair reversed its Thursday losses and opened the door for more gains in the days ahead. This development leaves USDJPY targeting the 89.00 level, its psycho level with a violation of there paving the way for more upside towards the 89.50 level and then the 90.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 90.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 86.78 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn the pair back up. However, a cut through here if seen will set the stage for more declines towards the 85.65 level. Further down, support comes in at the 85.00 level. All in all, USDJPY continues to retain its medium term uptrend.
USDCHF: The pair held off lower prices and turned higher on correction the past week suggesting further upside. However, the barrier is its declining trendline (red) which must be broken to extend the mentioned correction. As long as the trendline remains there as resistance, there is risk of USDCHF returning to the 0.9082 level. If this is broken further weakness will aim at the 0.9041 level where a breach will turn attention to the 0.9000 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. On the other hand, if taken out, the pair will target the 0.8929 level. On the upside, the pair will have to return above its trendline resistance to build on its recovery towards the 0.9382 level. This if seen will bring further upside offensive towards the 0.9456 level followed by the 0.9511 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term below its trendline resistance despite recovery attempts.
EURUSD: With EUR declining to close the week lower, further bear threats are expected in the new week. However, we expect further declines to be capped at its rising trendline support at 1.2928 level. This if seen should push the pair back up towards the 1.3144 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.3307 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3350 level followed by the 1.3400 level. Conversely, a turn below its trendline support and its 200 daily ema at 1.2944/21 levels could force further weakness. Further down, support comes in at the 1.2900 level and then the 1.2850 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. All in all, EUR continues to retain its broader medium term upside bias though facing bear threats.
EURGBP- Having halted its corrective declines and turned higher for a third-day in a row, the risk is for more upside to occur. This development now leaves the cross threatening further upside with possibility of returning to the 0.8186 level on the cards. A cut through here will call for a run at the 0.8224 level. Above here could pave the way for a run at the 0.8300 level. Alternatively, support lies at the 0.8104 level and the 0.8067 level where its trendline is located. Further down, the cross will have to break and hold below its trendline support (red) to put its broader upside bias in danger. In such a case, the 0.7960 level will be targeted. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside having ended its correction.
AUDUSD: We continue to hold our upside bias on AUDUSD as it looks to return to the 1.0531/86 level. In such a case, further upside risk could be seen towards the 1.0623 level, its Sept 2012 high. A cut through here will set the stage for a push higher towards the 1.0700 level. On the downside, support stands at the 1.0403 level where breach will call for a run at the 1.0349 level and then the 1.0300 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.0234 level All in all, the pair maintains its broader upside bias despite bear threats.
USDJPY: A follow-through higher on its Wednesday rally has exposed the 88.40 level. A break of here will call for a run at the 89.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 90.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 86.78 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn the pair back up. However, a cut through here if seen will set the stage for more declines towards the 85.65 level. Further down, support comes in at the 85.00 level. All in all, USDJPY continues to retain its medium term uptrend.
EURGBP- With a strong rally pushing the cross through the 0.8186 level to close higher on Thursday and following through higher during Friday trading session today, the risk is for further upside to occur in the days ahead. It has traded above the 0.8224 level with firm break and hold above here turning focus to the 0.8300 level. A breach of here will call for a run at the 0.8350 level and then the 0.8400 level. Alternatively, support lies at the 0.8186 level followed by the 0.8104 level and then the 0.8076 level where its trendline is located. Further down, the cross will have to break and hold below its trendline support (red) to put its broader upside bias in danger. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside with eyes on further upside.
USDCHF: With the pair reversing its previous week gains to close the week lower, the risk is for it to decline further. This development leaves it targeting the 0.9082 level with a violation of here turning attention to the 0.9041 level followed by the 0.9000 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. On the other hand, if taken out, the pair will target the 0.8929 level. On the upside, the pair will have to return above its trendline resistance to reverse its present weakness and then target the 0.9382 level. This if seen will bring further upside offensive towards the 0.9456 level followed by the 0.9511 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term with eyes on the 0.9082 level and beyond.
EURUSD: Having taken out its key resistance at the 1.3307 level to close the week higher, further upside offensive is envisaged. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3350 level followed by the 1.3400 level. A cut through here will open the door for more upside towards the 13500 level. Conversely, support stands at the 1.3307 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn EUR back up. However, if this fails, further downside will follow towards the 1.3200 level followed by the 1.3000 level. Further down, support comes in at its trendline support and its 200 daily ema at 1.2944/21 levels. All in all, EUR continues to retain its broader medium term upside bias.
EURGBP: Continues To Maintain Its Medium Term Uptrend Despite Hesitation.
EURGBP- With EURGBP holding firmly above the 0.8224 level, the risk is for more upside offensive to occur. Despite its current price hesitation, upside threat remains towards the 0.8350 level followed by the 0.8400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, support lies at the 0.8280 level, its Jan 14’2013 low. A break of here will push the cross further lower towards 0.8224 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn it higher. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8186 level followed by the 0.8104 All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside with eyes on the 0.8350 level.
CRUDE OIL: Strengthens, Triggers Medium Term Uptrend.
CRUDE OIL: Our outlook on Crude Oil remains to the upside in the medium term. With the commodity resuming that trend today, further bullish offensive is likely towards the 96.15 level with a violation of here turning attention to the 97.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 98.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 94.67 level where a violation will call for a run at the 93.63 level. Further down, support comes in at the 91.50 level and then the 90.30 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the upside in the medium term.
USDCHF- Reverses Weakness Set To Extend Corrective Strength.
USDCHF: With the pair reversing its previous week loses to close higher above its trendline support, further upside offensive could follow in the new week. This development leaves USDCHF targeting the 0.9456 level followed by the 0.9511 level and then the 0.9600 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for a failure of its current recovery to occur. This if seen could turn attention to the 0.9304 level and ultimately the 0.9082 level with a violation of here turning focus to the 0.9200 level. Further down, support resides at the 0.9100 and then the 0.9000 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. On the whole, the pair has triggered a strong corrective recovery suggesting further upside.
EURUSD: Outlook Higher Medium Term Despite Price Hesitation
EURUSD: EUR may have closed slightly lower the past week but continues to hold on to its medium term uptrend. It looks to extend its strength through its resistance at the 1.3403 level. If this is seen, further upside is likely towards the 1.3500 level followed by the 1.3480 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, on any pullback, the pair will aim at 1.3256 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.3200 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3150 level and then the 1.3100 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its broader medium term upside bias.
USDCAD: Although a higher close was recorded the past week, the pair will have to break and above its declining trendline to convince the market of further upside. While the mentioned trendline caps upside, an eventual return to the 0.9814/22 levels is likely. A breach will aim at the 0.9692/31 levels followed by the 0.9500 level. On the upside, USDCAD will have to break and hold above the 0.9922/56 levels to reverse its broader bear threats. This if seen will call for a run at the 1.0055 level and then the 1.0081 level. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.0250 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the downside below its trendline resistance.
USDCHF: The pair requires a break and hold above the 0.9388 level to prevent a return below its broken trendline. If the above mentioned level is traded expect the pair to target the 0.9400 level followed by the 0.9456 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9511 level and then the 0.9600 level. The alternative scenario will be for USDCHF to return to the 0.9200 level and then the 0.9100 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9041 level followed by the 0.9000 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. On the whole, the pair still maintains its corrective recovery tone though consolidating.
USDCHF: With the pair turning lower and holding below its broken trendline, further decline is expected especially now that it has reversed its corrective recovery. The challenge is for it to break decisively below the 0.9082 level though closing lower below there by a pip the past week. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8950 level followed by the 0.8900 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. If broken, further decline will occur towards the 0.8800 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the pair will have to break and hold above the 0.9388 level to reverse its entire weakness. This if seen will aim at the 0.9400 level followed by the 0.9456 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9511 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term
Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies
EURUSD: EUR followed through higher on the back of its previous week gains on Friday suggesting further upside. Resistance resides at the 1.3710 level where a violation will open the door for more upside towards the 1.3800 level. Further out, the 1.3850 level comes in as the next upside with a cut through here turning focus to the 1.3900 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support comes in at the 1.3335 level with a violation of here turning attention to the 1.3256 level. Further down, the 1.3200 level comes in as the next downside objective where a break will aim at the 1.3150 level and then the 1.3100 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its broader medium term upside bias.
