FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF- Bear Threats Still Seen

USDCHF: The pair may be struggling to recover higher but continues to hold on to its bearish medium term bias. A failure of its recovery attempts could mean a return to the 0.9082 level and then the 0.9021 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8950 level followed by the 0.8900 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. If broken, further declines will occur towards the 0.8800 level. Conversely, the pair will have to break and hold above the 0.9388 level to reverse its entire weakness. This if seen will aim at the 0.9400 level followed by the 0.9456 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9511 level and then the 0.9600 level. On the whole, the pair is facing bear threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF- Declining Trendline To Cap Recovery.

USDCHF: While USDCHF may have halted its medium term downtrend and turned higher on correction the past week, its declining trendline stands in its way on further recovery. As long as the 0.9290/90 levels hold as supports, a return to the 0.9082 level cannot be ruled out. If this occurs, expect further declines to occur towards the 0.9000 level followed by the 0.8950 level and next the 0.8900 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. If broken, further declines will occur towards the 0.8800 level. Conversely, the pair will have to break and hold above the 0.9290/92 levels to create scope for more upside towards the 0.9388 level. This if seen will aim at the 0.9400 level followed by the 0.9456 level. On the whole, the pair may be recovering but continues to hold on to its broader medium term downside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Sells Off, Risk Seen Towards The 1.5500 Level.

GBPUSD: GBP has sold off and taken out its key support at the 1.5630 level, its Feb 05’2013 low. This has exposed the 1.5500 level and set the stage for further declines. A violation of the 1.5500 level will call for more declines towards the 1.5450 level and next the 1.5400 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair must return above the 1.5803 level to create scope for more upside towards the 1.5844/77 levels. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.5900 level and then the 1.6000 level followed by the 1.6179 level. On the whole, GBP continues to look vulnerable on further medium term weakness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Backs Off Higher Prices, Consolidates

USDJPY: With its correction fading we look for USDJPY to return to the 94.45 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 95.00 level with a turn above here aiming at the 95.50 level followed by the 96.00 level and next the 96.50 level. On the downside, support comes in at the 93.17 level followed by the 91.70 level and then the 90.00 level and next the 90.00 level. A cut through there will aim at the 89.00 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Weak, Set To Extend Declines.

GBPUSD: With GBP selling off to reverse its previous week gains and close lower at the end of the week, further bearishness is likely in the new week. This development leaves it targeting its support located at the 1.5450 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.5400 level and then the 1.5320 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair must return above the 1.5644 level to reverse its past week losses and create scope for more upside towards the 1.5700 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.5900 level and then the 1.6000 level. On the whole, GBP continues to look vulnerable to the downside.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF- Strengthens, Targets Trendline Resistance.

USDCHF: With USDCHF maintaining its upside tone, there is risk of further price extension. In such a case, the 9293 level, its trendline resistance could come in as the next upside objective. A cap is likely to occur here and turn it lower but if taken out, the 0.9382 level will be targeted. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9400 level followed by the 0.9456 level and then the 0.9511 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, as long as it holds below its declining trendline resistance, the risk of a return to the 0.9200 level and then the 0.9149 level cannot be ruled out. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9082 level followed by the 0.9021 level and next the 0.8950 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. On the whole, corrective recovery may be in place but USDCHF continues to hold to its broader downside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Vulnerable On Correction.

EURUSD: EUR remains vulnerable as it is now trading at its rising trendline support at 1.3209 level. This level must hold to prevent a deeper weakness and possibly see the pair eventually return to the 1.3434 level. Above here will pave the way for a run at the 13519 level followed by its major resistance standing at the 1.3716 level. Above here should force further upside towards the 1.3800 level and then the 1.3850 level. On the downside, support is seen at the 1.3209 level, its trendline support where a violation will call for a run at 1.3150 level and then the 13100 level. We expect this level to reverse roles as support and turn the pair higher again. But if this fails to occur, further weakness could develop. All in all, EUR continues to retain its broader medium term upside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF- Strengthens For Third Week In A Row

USDCHF: With USDCHF maintaining a third-week of upside gains, there is risk of a recapture of the 0.9388 level, its Feb 18’2013 high. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9400 level followed by the 0.9456 level and then the 0.9511 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support lies at the 0.9184 level where a violation will turn attention to the 0.9100 level. Further down, support comes in at the 0.9021 level and next the 0.8950 level. Price hesitation may occur here due to its psychological importance. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its upside offensive.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Sells Off On Further Correction.

EURUSD: EUR extended its corrective downside the past week suggesting further declines could follow in the new week. Support lies at the 1.3100 level followed by the 1.3000 level where a halt could occur and turn it higher. However, if this level breaks, expect further declines to happen towards the 1.2900 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, to annul its present weakness, the pair will have to return above the 1.3710 level, a very tough task at its present price levels. A violation will open the door for more upside towards the 1.3800 level and then the 1.3850 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective downside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Weakens, Further Bear Threats Seen.

USDJPY: The pair still faces downside pressure on correction. Further downside is likely towards the 90.86 level. Below here could force further downside towards the 90.00 level. On ending the mentioned correction, it should return above the 94.45 level to trigger medium term uptrend. Further out, resistance resides at the 95.00 level with a turn above here aiming at the 95.50 level followed by the 96.00 level and next the 96.50 level. On the downside, support resides at the 92.20 level where a break will aim at the 91.70 level and then the 90.00 level. A cut through there will aim at the 89.00 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Sells Off, Breaks The 1.5079 Level.

GBPUSD: With GBP selling off through its minor support at 1.5079 level, further bearishness is expected. This will target the 1.5000 level where a respite may occur and turn it higher. However, if taken out, expect further downside to develop towards the 1.4900 level followed by the 1.4800 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance stands at the 1.5300 level followed by the 1.5391 level. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.5400 level and then the 1.5500 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its broader downside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Weakens, Targets The 1.0100 Level & Below.

AUDUSD: As indicated in our weekly outlook, AUDUSD extended its broader medium term weakness during Monday trading today. With the pair now holding below the 1.0200 level and testing a low of 1.0114 level, there is risk of further downside pressure. The immediate support resides at the 1.0100 level where a break will target its big psycho level at the 1.0000 level. A breather could occur here and turn it higher. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 1.0200 level to reduce its present downside pressure. This if seen will call for a run at the 1.0250 level and then the 1.0300 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.0374 level. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside on further weakness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURJPY: Corrective Threats Yet To Over.

EURJPY- Following a halt in its correction and its subsequent recovery, we still continue to see further upside risk. However, it will have to break and hold above the 125.21 level to create scope for a run at the 127.70 level. A break will pave the way for a run at the 128.00 level followed by the 128.50 level and then the 129.00 level. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be for EURJPY to return to the 118.73 level. Further down, support lies at its .382 Fib Ret at 117.48 level. We expect here to hold and turn the cross higher. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the medium term though corrective risks.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Halts Declines, Attempts Recovery.

EURUSD: With a recovery higher triggered, EUR could see further upside in the days ahead. However, while holding below the 1.3161 level, there is risk of a return to the downside towards the 1.2966 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2875 level and then the 1.2800 level. In order for the pair to resume its broader medium term uptrend, it will have to return above the 1.3434 level. Above here will pave the way for a run at the 13519 level followed by its major resistance standing at the 1.3716 level. A turn above here should force further upside towards the 1.3800 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective downside bias.

 

[sellit]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

My EURUSD levels for today.

EURUSD hit resistance at 1.3077 which held the bounce again. We have tested support at last week’s low of 1.2967. A break is unlikely now as stated yesterday and we have in fact bounced off here.

We have a bullish double bottom formation indicating a move back to 1.3077/80 now. A break above here targets 1.3145 which should hold the topside at this stage but if we push through 1.3165 we look for a test of 1.3199 resistance with 1.3250/55 likely to hold a bounce this week.

1.2965 support is providing a floor to the recent sell off but a break should target 1.2890/80 before finding support in this down trend. However if this fails we should test the 200 day MA at 1.2846.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Resumes Broader Weakness.

GBPUSD: With GBP resuming its broader downside weakness, it looks to decline further towards the 1.4900 level. We expect this level to hold if tested and then turn the pair higher. Further down, support comes in at the 1.4800 level followed by the 1.4700 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance stands at the 1.5154 level followed by the 1.5198 level, its Mar 05’13 higher. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.5400 level and then the 1.5500 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its broader downside bias despite recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Strengths, Resumes Medium Term Uptrend.

USDJPY: With USDJPY rallying through the 94.45 level to resume its broader upside, there is risk of continued strength towards the 96.00 level. A cut through here will call for a run at the 96.50 level where a breach will target the 97.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support resides at the 94.45 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn it higher. Further down, support stands at the 93.50 level and then the 93.00 level. A cut through there will aim at the 92.00 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the upside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Bearish, Outlook Remains Lower

EURUSD: EUR remains week and vulnerable to the downside with further decline likely in the new week. Support stands at the 1.2900 level followed by the 1.2882 level where a halt could occur and turn it higher. However, if this level breaks, expect further declines to occur towards the 1.2700 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, to annul its present weakness, the pair will have to return above the 1.3318 level, a very tough task at its present price levels. A violation will open the door for more upside towards the 1.3400 level and then the 1.3500 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective downside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Bullish On Corrective Recovery.

GBPUSD: A third day of upside on recovery is now underway. This suggests that we could see further upside towards the 1.5198 level where a violation will aim at the 1.5300 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, the risk to its present bullish offensive will be a reversal of that gain and a return to the 1.4830 level. Below here if seen will resume its broader medium term downtrend towards the 1.4800 level. A violation will aim at the 1.4700 level followed by the 1.4700 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its broader downside bias though recovering.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF: Turns Lower On Price Failure

USDCHF- A serious blow has been dealt on USDCHF’s recovery triggered from the 0.9021 level as it reversed its previous week gains to close lower on Friday. On a hold below the 0.9388 level, risk of further downside will develop towards the 0.9230 level and possibly the 0.9150 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, for the pair to reverse its present weakness and resume its short term uptrend, it will have to break and hold above the 0.9566 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9600 level followed by the 0.9773 level, its weekly ema. On the whole, the pair’s short term bullishness remains valid as long as it holds above the 0.9388 level, its Feb 18’2013 high