FX Trading Week July 30 - Aug 3

Cable's price action last week was

  • A full reversal! its south from here!!

    Votes: 5 26.3%

  • nah, just a retrace on the monthly chart

    Votes: 12 63.2%

  • I dont care, i trade a 1 minute bar

    Votes: 2 10.5%
  • Total voters
    19
oiltanker said:
waiting for a breakout of 2.0235 support with momentum to downside [everything is looking down to me].

but again this is looking double bottomish to me with previous swing low so who knows?
Click to expand...

Hi there oiltanker,

more to the downside on cable i would agree with, shorted @ 2.0235 will now wait and see........

One more time into the fire
 
Another losing trade last night - what is happening to my system at the moment????

Last week I had 2 losing trades and an overall +5 for the week.

So far this week I've had -48, +60, -48........

But with 4 losing trades in 6 days it's not good and my confidence is really taking a battering. I keep wondering if the system has suddenly stopped working; or if it never worked and the data I back-tested it over was just a fluke.....So far my plans are going horribly pear-shaped. :eek:
 
JillyB said:
Another losing trade last night - what is happening to my system at the moment????

Last week I had 2 losing trades and an overall +5 for the week.

So far this week I've had -48, +60, -48........

But with 4 losing trades in 6 days it's not good and my confidence is really taking a battering. I keep wondering if the system has suddenly stopped working; or if it never worked and the data I back-tested it over was just a fluke.....So far my plans are going horribly pear-shaped. :eek:
Click to expand...

hi jilly, sorry for that. question for you....

did you test your method during significant trend turns? im not saying this is a change of trend from march 2006, but just wondering about both cases.

edit: how did it do during early march 2007?

j
 
JillyB said:
Another losing trade last night - what is happening to my system at the moment????

Last week I had 2 losing trades and an overall +5 for the week.

So far this week I've had -48, +60, -48........

But with 4 losing trades in 6 days it's not good and my confidence is really taking a battering. I keep wondering if the system has suddenly stopped working; or if it never worked and the data I back-tested it over was just a fluke.....So far my plans are going horribly pear-shaped. :eek:
Click to expand...

Hey there Jilly,

The only thing you can do is stick to your system, and keep the faith, i just use MA's looked at so many so called systems, but my own which is a simple one, works for me. just keep in there, am sure it will be fine for you.

good luck today...... :p
 
trendie

i suppose if it starts crawling along sideways then the bias is probably down but the 9.30 news should give some shove. What commentators are saying is that a weak pmi suggest interest rates won't go up and so would be cable negative?

my 50% retrace line on daily is about 150 so i'm looking at that as 2nd target for a short.
 
jacinto said:
thank you trendie :eek:
Click to expand...

sorry, j, that may have come across wrong.
I do see it was support, but I couldnt see any action to infer it would hold.

I am trying to understand price movement from context of traders perceptions, etc.

on the downswing on EURJPY, price halted at 160.90, then rose. traders, wished they had bought at that price, as it was a good-buy retrospectively, wishing they had taken it at that exact point.

now that price has fallen back to that level, traders may be thinking that that price is "cheap", or feel they have been given a second bite of the cherry, and be thinking of buying, giving rise to the 2B pattern. and also, giving rise to support, with a bounce of 160.90.

this all assumes that the 2B wont fail, and we are expecting an upswing.
its all about the statistics of 2B pattern success/failure.

if price fails to hold 160.90, then there will be a load of buyers holding losing positions, and some pressure below 160.90 could give rise to positions being covered, (by mass selling), and a thrust to the downside could ensue, even if only for a few bars.

I am definitely thinking too much.
Nurse!! 20mg of 24-EMA and 50mg of 12-EMA, please, administered every 30-mins.
 
its ok trendie....no worries. :LOL:

ended up giving back the morning scalp, so no harm really done....just a profitless day.

to be honest, i forgot that the thing between my ears is for something else than only using sunglasses. just need to see the monthly chart that closed last night as i entered that short, to know the mistake, and where was the obvious target for the short.

im moving this week and starting to doubt i will get time to trade. between packing and the monster my time is becoming constrained to trading overnight, which i dont want to do this week. then again, i may find the odd 2 hours free if i cage my kid :devilish:
 
jilly

your system makes sense to me. all its showing is there is no trend in place at the moment?

one guy i know only trades trends and waits for the mas to be in order and parallel before trading.

at the moment the mas [that help to judge of the strength of a trend] are all over the place.
 
jacinto said:
hi jilly, sorry for that. question for you....

did you test your method during significant trend turns? im not saying this is a change of trend from march 2006, but just wondering about both cases.

edit: how did it do during early march 2007?

j
Click to expand...

Early March 2007 was very choppy as well - quite like this when I look back - so you could be on to something there.

From October to the end of March the system was quite volatile with 23 of the 30 losing trades during this time, but a lot of pips on the remaining trades. From the end of March there have been less losing trades, but less pips per trade. In fact the system has had two very different character traits - yet both profitable.
 
JillyB said:
Early March 2007 was very choppy as well - quite like this when I look back - so you could be on to something there.

From October to the end of March the system was quite volatile with 23 of the 30 losing trades during this time, but a lot of pips on the remaining trades. From the end of March there have been less losing trades, but less pips per trade. In fact the system has had two very different character traits - yet both profitable.
Click to expand...

mmmmm......so, starts to sound like high sensitivity of the method to fast and sharp moves. dunno about trend though, given your comments.

although from a trend angle, it should be a system that does very well when there are decent trends.....seems to capture the pullbacks too! but seems to not do very well when there are sharp turns.

i think you do well to trade your method and stick to your rules. i wonder if there is something to improve it.....meaning....understanding under which environment it is very reliable, reliable and unreliable.......think of it as swing, scalp, and flat....

dunno if i make sense.
 
I'm short Cable from 2.0207, stoploss 2.0345. Target 2 or below, looking to hold for quite a while. Entry on a 4h chart per Atilla's system.
 

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jacinto said:
mmmmm......so, starts to sound like high sensitivity of the method to fast and sharp moves. dunno about trend though, given your comments.

although from a trend angle, it should be a system that does very well when there are decent trends.....seems to capture the pullbacks too! but seems to not do very well when there are sharp turns.

i think you do well to trade your method and stick to your rules. i wonder if there is something to improve it.....meaning....understanding under which environment it is very reliable, reliable and unreliable.......think of it as swing, scalp, and flat....

dunno if i make sense.
Click to expand...


Yes you do and you have got me wondering about it too - I've already split it into two styles with 'High Volatility' and 'Low Volatility' - I looked at the ADX for trend as a filter but the system doesn't correlate at all with it.

It was a pretty smooth system from mid October (start of my 10 min data) to end of November - very similar to what it has been over the last couple of months. From here until mid March it was hellish with lots of trades being stopped out but it still made a profit as the winning trades made good amounts of pips. From mid March to mid July (I'd say) it has been calm and easy to trade again - not many losing trades, but not a lot of pips per trade either. Two very distinct trading patterns here I think, but finding a filter that sorts them isn't easy.
 
I think it's very dangerous to look too closely at a system when you've had a few losing days. It's nowhere near enough data and emotions tend to come into play. There will never be a perfect system but one which generates the sort of profits that Jilly's does is pretty good in my book. Losses are a fact of trading but it's the long term P&L that counts.
 
EURJPY: 2B it is then.
what were the signs prior to the upmove?
 
Offshore Trader said:
Out of EUR/JPY at +100 and cable no doubt will be stopped out in the next couple of hours - very cynical but I've really struggled with cable the last few days
Click to expand...

nobody can complain the volatility hasnt returned.
storming all over the place.
my MAs are killing me.
 
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