FX Trading Week July 30 - Aug 3

[a_gnome]

Hi Trendie,

I still have the Market Matrix newsletters - I subscribed for 3 months to see what they were like. So far I'm not overly impressed by what I've read and also there hasn't been an update for July - which there usually is mid-month.

The other thing is that when I initially looked at the cable I had more turn points than they show - and they appeared to work more consistently (though who am I to question these people, they've been trading a lot longer than I have and probably a lot more successfully too). So I don't currently feel comfortable with the system. They called a top in the Cable and a price target and it just wasn't correct - the price went over 200 pips beyond there target - now there is no way that this could be called accurate in my book. They also gave a date of the 19th July as the major turn - which it wasn't - even though I hung in there with my trade waiting for it to turn!

However I did post last night that I thought there was possibly a turn point today and we would be looking for a bounce up from now into early next week. Not sure about this - but I like to post it on the board whatever.

The jury is still out for me. I need to look at it in more detail yet i think.

Hi Jilly,
Interestingly enough the free MM e-mail claims that it called the top in the Dow just before the recent sell off. It seems to my layman's eye that sometimes these cycle things can break down and stop working completely and you need to bear that in mind when making trades based on them.

 

[a_gnome]

I have been reading the "bubble" thread over on forex-tsd (have I mentioned this before? )
it is a revelation! I can follow the logic, and the trades. it makes sense to me.
I may finally get to lose the indicators!
I tend to jump in as well, as I fear missing out on a good trade, rather wait for re-tests.
but thats my problem, not the sup/res concept.
all this peak/trough stuff... great!

Can you provide a link to this? I'm not sure what you mean by forex-tsd though I expect that I'll kick myself when you tell me as it will suddenly become blindingly obvious!

 

[jacinto]

Can you provide a link to this? I'm not sure what you mean by forex-tsd though I expect that I'll kick myself when you tell me as it will suddenly become blindingly obvious!

add www. before the forex, and then a .com after the tsd.

 

[trendie]

Can you provide a link to this? I'm not sure what you mean by forex-tsd though I expect that I'll kick myself when you tell me as it will suddenly become blindingly obvious!

http://www.forex-tsd.com/general-discussion/8003-how-use-support-resistance-effectively.html

EDIT: sorry about advertising another forum, but the thread is very good!!

 

[jacinto]

http://www.forex-tsd.com/general-discussion/8003-how-use-support-resistance-effectively.html

EDIT: sorry about advertising another forum, but the thread is very good!!

are you looking for a yellow card

 

[trendie]

are you looking for a yellow card

I am surprised you could read my post - referees are renowned to have ocular-dysfunction.

 

[JillyB]

Hi Jilly,
Interestingly enough the free MM e-mail claims that it called the top in the Dow just before the recent sell off. It seems to my layman's eye that sometimes these cycle things can break down and stop working completely and you need to bear that in mind when making trades based on them.

Yes they did call the top on the S & P - the Dow will be just the same - as 19th July so they were correct on this one. It's just the Cable I had problems with and they've been very quiet about it since.

 

[trendie]

I think EURJPY has turned over.
the 162.75 has been tested, and gone through, although gently.
if it drops a little further, say to 161.95, and then bounces up to test 162.75 from the underside and not break through, then the downmove has recommenced.
all will be revealed tomorrow.

 

[jacinto]

I think EURJPY has turned over.
the 162.75 has been tested, and gone through, although gently.
if it drops a little further, say to 161.95, and then bounces up to test 162.75 from the underside and not break through, then the downmove has recommenced.
all will be revealed tomorrow.

see what i mean with the pullbacks .....its 15 min price reading applied to 4hr charts and much larger stops ......

end of month though

 

[oiltanker]

eur/jpy

double bottom anyone

 

[jacinto]

eur/jpy

double bottom anyone

just cant see the 2B you mean OT....unless you mean its goint down 150 pips. ..........i do see the possibility of a higher low, but then again.........with this thing you cant tell now :-0

 

[JillyB]

I just managed to take +18 pips on the GBP/JPY :cheesy:

My other half was trading - I was looking over his shoulder. "What are you trading?"
"A Sell setup on the pound yen." He says.
"Oh." I reply.
Go back to own computer - press a couple of buttons. Then went to watch tv for a few minutes. Came back and I was up +18 pips. Take my profit - thank you! Big kiss for other half. (Well sometimes you have to!)

 

[jacinto]

I just managed to take +18 pips on the GBP/JPY :cheesy:

My other half was trading - I was looking over his shoulder. "What are you trading?"
"A Sell setup on the pound yen." He says.
"Oh." I reply.
Go back to own computer - press a couple of buttons. Then went to watch tv for a few minutes. Came back and I was up +18 pips. Take my profit - thank you! Big kiss for other half. (Well sometimes you have to!)

i guess i will have to get my wife to start trading if i want to get kisses :cheesy:...cause at present....no no

 

[Offshore Trader]

Overnight short EUR/JPY and long cable.....161.92 & 202.90

 

[MSP Trader]

Well here goes the trade update , the trade went against me from entry.... waited until the market went to 2.0355 and did the thing i know i should not do lol, yep i averaged up the trade to 2.0339. after a little pain of watching a negitive balance, the trade came good, closed @ 2.0296 for a 43 pip profit

hope you all had a good day on the markets? see you for the next round in the fire.......

 

[jacinto]

Overnight short EUR/JPY and long cable.....161.92 & 202.90

im actually on the other side ATM......IMO, if there is to be a higher low at all, then that is the place for it to be. so i am long at 61.90...........

to be honest, it is more against me at the moment, so will just go to sleep and wake up with good or bad news. will see. for my sake, hope its good, cause i am again going to legoland in the morning.

 

[oiltanker]

j

the 2b potential i saw was the 160.90 which appeared this morning ? [its clear on 1h and 4h]

now why did i not trade it?

[cause i only trade London]

So Jilly what would have happened if it was -18pts?

 

[jacinto]

stopped out overnight. good trade OT

 

[oiltanker]

waiting for a breakout of 2.0235 support with momentum to downside [everything is looking down to me].

but again this is looking double bottomish to me with previous swing low so who knows?

 

[trendie]

2B or not 2B, that is the question.

I see the apparent bounce off 160.90, and gives the impression of a 2B pattern.
what makes a 2B pattern?

does it now need to bounce to resistance to count?
what if it merely hovers around the 161 (+/- 50) area, and then plunges through?
does that invalidate the 2B, since the pattern would become less obvious when looked back at later on?

sup/res: I couldnt make sense of jacintos recent buy EURJPY.
in fact, I cant make sense of my own calling of double-top yesterday!
actually, reading Curtis Faiths The Way of the Turtle, he refers to the notion of "recency bias" to explain why support and resistance work!! that we have a tendency to "anchor" to most recent price highs and lows, and trade in reference to them to identify prices as being "cheap" or "expensive" relative to recent prices.

I am also reading "Breaking Vegas" by Ben Mezrich, about Blackjack.