FX Trading October 1 - 5

[JillyB]

Hi there

As a total neophyte, I want to thank you all for threads like this. I am learning so much that it's like a master class.

I'm trading EURJPY and USDJPY and managed to catch the break that Jilly refers to this am.



I wish I could say it was skill or something like that, but it was dumb luck. I was trying do something, I can't remember what, and suddenly found my self on the wrong side of the trade. As it looked really sluggish I decided to ride it out, and early this morning I found myself on the right of +60. +60 which I messed up and dropped 20 of due to finger trouble.

I've been sitting on EURJPY and USDJPY long since this morning, determined to turn it into something. I thought that there was a close correspondence between the two, but they have been doing slightly different things. I find myself on the right side of the USDJPY trend (should rather be called a crawl) and on the wrong side of the EURJPY, although both were entered almost simultaneously.

According to my trading plan, I suppose I should have dumped the EURJPY several times, but I keep on thinking that the USDJPY is working, so it'll come back. Most of the time It's just shaving the underside of my entry, so I'm keeping it for now.

Once again, thanks to you all, I've got a long way to go, but you're helping immensely, specially with the annotated trades.

rgds

Hi Coda,

Welcome to the thread. Glad you made a nice profit on the EurJpy this morning - unlike myself .

In being in this trade I missed the break of the previous high on the UsdJpy. I recall looking at it just before 11.00am and it wasn't doing much and I wondered if it was going to be another reversal - however it didn't and continued up to fall shy of the previous high at 3pm yesterday. There would have been a nice +40 pip profit here for taking the trade at the break/confirmation of break of reistance.

 

[_coda]

Hi Coda,

Welcome to the thread. Glad you made a nice profit on the EurJpy this morning - unlike myself .

Thanks for the welcome,Jilly. I don't have much to contribute so I'll just hang around. Maybe I can ask a question or two.

rgds

 

[JillyB]

so Maybe I can ask a question or two.

rgds

Of course - no problem - even if you think it's something really basic - just ask. One of us will be here/around & able to reply.

 

[Crap Buddist]

More Coinage from the Colonel GBPJPY BULL HOLD

On Safari with Colonel Coin - Bird Watchin at the LIDO

 

[shadowninja]

On Safari with Colonel Coin - Bird Watchin at the LIDO

Now that is bizarre.

 

[Mr.Black]

Current EUR/USD status quo.... Retrace...:cheesy:

 

[_coda]

Hi there

Well, the two trades I had setup yesterday turned into something after all. I had both EURJPY and USDJPY long from early am and finally this morning there was a decent breakout on both. Well, decent for me anyway. If trading is like fishing, then this one was plenty big enough for me, thank you very much.

Question - What is the best strategy/technique for maximizing return on a sharp upswing?

I exited on the EURJPY the moment I saw the momentum dropping away, and got out pretty close to the top at 164.72. With the USDJPY I placed a safety stop at 115.99, wanting to let it run. It came back and took out the stop.

This suggests that it's better to exit the trade quickly, when the momentum starts dropping. The problem is that it may turn out to be difficult to get back on the trade if it picks up momentum again.

I just don't have any experience here and would appreciate your input.


rgds

 

[tightstops]

not sure if there is a best way i think its whatever you find works.im guilty of getting out too early rather than too late means my stops get hit less but often miss big moves closing half and letting the rest continue might be worth trying.

tempting to add to these euro longs as price cushions back into the mean on small timeframes.

 

[Mr.Black]

I am short on EUR/USD....:cheesy:

 

[tightstops]

see if i can get in on the cheap with buying 4175 10 pip stop

 

[tightstops]

moving that stop to 60 for a slightly better chance. i think the xtra 5 is probably worth it. soon see by the looks of it

 

[Mr.Black]

I am covering My short for 15 pips profit.... cool and fast....:cheesy:

 

[tightstops]

i just covered mine for the opposite -15

 

[tightstops]

if you cant beat em join them eh short at 53 5 pip stop

 

[tightstops]

closing 3/4 here the rest is gravy

 

[JillyB]

Is this worth it

Hi Everyone,

I've spent today backtesting a new strategy that I'd previously given up on - it hit a losing streak and I just left it alone.

What I want are some honest opinions on whether its worth trading this.

Overall pips for 1 year - 1 Sept 2006 to 1 Sept 2007 = 1508 (net of spreads)
Currency pair traded : GBP/USD
Target profit : 30 pips (+ spread = 33)
Stop loss : 35 pips (+spread = 38)

Entry points set at 7.00am based on pivot points

Results:
Max number of losing trades in a row = 3 (= -114 pips)
Max number of winning trades in a row = 9 (= +180 pips)

September 2006 +306
October 2006 +180
November 2006 +334
December 2006 +170
January 2007 -18
February 2007 +50
March 2007 +80
April 2007 -108
May 2007 +124
June 2007 +224
July 2007 +110
August 2007 +56

This would give an average of 29 pips per week (1508 / 52).
However if you take out September, October and November 2006, which were exceptional months (and the reason I started trading this system) the average drops dramatically to 17.16 pips (688 / 39).

My question is - is it worth trading for a possible 17 pips per week profit. I can't help wondering if my trading capital would be better employed on something else.

Any comments gratefully received.

 

[coolshades]

a lot of people will give their left leg to make 17 pips a week consistently.

Hi Everyone,

I've spent today backtesting a new strategy that I'd previously given up on - it hit a losing streak and I just left it alone.

What I want are some honest opinions on whether its worth trading this.

Overall pips for 1 year - 1 Sept 2006 to 1 Sept 2007 = 1508 (net of spreads)
Currency pair traded : GBP/USD
Target profit : 30 pips (+ spread = 33)
Stop loss : 35 pips (+spread = 38)

Entry points set at 7.00am based on pivot points

Results:
Max number of losing trades in a row = 3 (= -114 pips)
Max number of winning trades in a row = 9 (= +180 pips)

September 2006 +306
October 2006 +180
November 2006 +334
December 2006 +170
January 2007 -18
February 2007 +50
March 2007 +80
April 2007 -108
May 2007 +124
June 2007 +224
July 2007 +110
August 2007 +56

This would give an average of 29 pips per week (1508 / 52).
However if you take out September, October and November 2006, which were exceptional months (and the reason I started trading this system) the average drops dramatically to 17.16 pips (688 / 39).

My question is - is it worth trading for a possible 17 pips per week profit. I can't help wondering if my trading capital would be better employed on something else.

Any comments gratefully received.

 

[trendie]

.......

My question is - is it worth trading for a possible 17 pips per week profit. I can't help wondering if my trading capital would be better employed on something else.

Any comments gratefully received.

JillyB,

thanks for sharing another idea.
is it worth it? well, you are trading for a fairly short space of time, ie, 7-am entry for 30 pips, so you are not tieing up your capital for a long time, probably for just an hour or two.

also, you have this overnight strategy already, perhaps the 7-am point could be seen as a perfect "bail-out now" or "stay with it for extra 30 pips" addition to the overnight, based on these pivots?

You have to ask yourself: What would Chuck Norris do?

 

[JillyB]

JillyB,

thanks for sharing another idea.
is it worth it? well, you are trading for a fairly short space of time, ie, 7-am entry for 30 pips, so you are not tieing up your capital for a long time, probably for just an hour or two.

also, you have this overnight strategy already, perhaps the 7-am point could be seen as a perfect "bail-out now" or "stay with it for extra 30 pips" addition to the overnight, based on these pivots?

You have to ask yourself: What would Chuck Norris do?

Hi Trendie,

Thanks for your input - I hadn't thought of it as a 'stay with it' approach, but this could work. I will 'paper trade' for a few weeks and see how I get on with it. For me, a lot of it is feeling comfortable with a strategy as well. Which is why I really gave up trading my Dow strategy. It wasn't that it didn't work - it did and still does record good profits - but I couldn't get my head around it. I just didn't feel comfortable trading it. I would let myself get stopped out when it was going against me, but when it went in my favour I always wanted to bail out too soon. Whereas my Overnight system delivers less pips per week on average than the Dow system, yet I feel more comfortable with it and trade it more easily.

Also I like to have a few different strategies on the go for my FX trading, so I can trade whether the market is trending or consolidating - this one could be something to add to the collection. I'll have to see how I get on.

 

[TheBramble]

Hi Everyone,

I've spent today backtesting a new strategy that I'd previously given up on - it hit a losing streak and I just left it alone.

A losing streak longer than the maximum of 3 you quoted?

What I want are some honest opinions on whether its worth trading this.

You’ve come to the right place…

Overall pips for 1 year - 1 Sept 2006 to 1 Sept 2007 = 1508 (net of spreads)
Currency pair traded : GBP/USD
Target profit : 30 pips (+ spread = 33)
Stop loss : 35 pips (+spread = 38)

Overall pips for the year don’t do much for me, I’m more into the microanalysis of which each day looks like. What jumps out at me, is the R:R. You’re risking more than you’re planning on taking out on each trade. Without knowing the Pwl it’s impossible to judge for sure.

Entry points set at 7.00am based on pivot points

Results:
Max number of losing trades in a row = 3 (= -114 pips)
Max number of winning trades in a row = 9 (= +180 pips)

Any comments gratefully received.

Looks pretty horrible. Your 38 pips/loss stacks up, but what happened to the +30 pips win target? It’s only averaged 20 on this data.

As I say, without knowing the Pwl it tends to look somewhat like having a maximum potential of being a 75% winning system with a 20 pip profit and a 38 pip loss. +1500/-950 = +550/100 = +5.5 pips/trade, not 17.

Jilly, I know you have a number of other strats on the go at any one time….