FX trading Oct 29 - Nov02

[bbmac]

Here is the 1hr chart at that set-up mentioned and shown in posts 59 and 60 above. i'd mentioned there were varying patterns of bearish divergence extending on the 15/30/1hr chart at that resistance. This can indicate that a deeper pullback/reversal is likely, and with the breech of the extreme fib tunnels on those time frames too, this seemed to be the indication. cable is off 76pips from todays highs as I write this.

The 1hr set-up was the srongest divergence being generally regular immediate bearish divergence whilst the 15 and 30min were the lower probability across a sample - regular sequential bearish divergnecs in the oscillators.

 

[bbmac]

sorry, the 1hr chart is attached here: (doh!!)

(Reversal C [marg])

 

[ampro]

Bulls shaking the sleep from their eyes?? Close call at the 1st key supports, could become mired inside this zone until the Payrolls clears the mist. 239.60 next hurdle should the Bulls get a head of steam into New York.

 

[Crap Buddist]

GBPJPY, currently long 238.03 from around midnight last night, looks like your 237.60 support has panned out ampro . what you thinking from this point, heads up to get short or add to longs on a longer term ? my setup this second cycle looks like I'll be cashing out .... around these levels.. 239.00

better book em.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Bulls shaking the sleep from their eyes?? Close call at the 1st key supports, could become mired inside this zone until the Payrolls clears the mist. 239.60 next hurdle should the Bulls get a head of steam into New York.

LOL payrolls,, ooopss.. I need to rest. hmmm well mines flipping to bearish, just seen you detailed thoughts post , before I asked "what you thinkin", clearly i'm knackered. might be a chill out day for me.....

 

[Crap Buddist]

Thinkin about my failed rate decision short, I was shafted on that, something aint right, the fed needs to raise rates to stem inflation, so the next day the market stuffs people long to unwind. ?? so, fundamentally, the pounds topped ? or the fed are likely to hold rates or less likely to cut, but GBP rates coming down after chrimbo so thats gotta be factored in ???

Or is it not as simple as that... hmm mind you the US still want dollars to errode.

 

[trendie]

Thinkin about my failed rate decision short, I was shafted on that, something aint right, the fed needs to raise rates to stem inflation, so the next day the market stuffs people long to unwind. ?? so, fundamentally, the pounds topped ? or the fed are likely to hold rates or less likely to cut, but GBP rates coming down after chrimbo so thats gotta be factored in ???

Or is it not as simple as that... hmm mind you the US still want dollars to errode.

for a buddist (sic), you dont half think a lot!
oh, you're a crap one; that explains it :!:

hope you guys had a good week. if not, have a whizz-bang bonfire weekend.
(make sure you keep your ducks indoors, where its nice and warm)

 

[Crap Buddist]

for a buddist (sic), you dont half think a lot!
oh, you're a crap one; that explains it :!:

hope you guys had a good week. if not, have a whizz-bang bonfire weekend.
(make sure you keep your ducks indoors, where its nice and warm)

hello trendie, you got it mate. I do me best, hmm fireworks, my dog doesnt like them, so need to keep him calm somehow, only I think (again) he thinks ,my singings worse

Not so many kids on the streets these days throwing fireworks about either since they tightened the regulations, me and my mates used have great fun firing rockets (hand held) at each other........ Just like playing soldiers with a bit more realism we thought (silly sods) ..

have agood one..

 

[ampro]

Or is it not as simple as that...

Unfortunately not, no. If it was, it wouldn't be nearly as much fun!!

For every bullish item of chatter, back will come some smart, slick suit with a bearish angle.

Unless you got yourself a Gold badge paper in economics, I find it best to stick to the core pro’s & cons. If not, all you’ll achieve is to spin yourself into a migraine.

The usual key items (rates, inflation etc) are always on the front burner & (traded) whipped back & forth on the smaller frames via the chatter & consensus. They’ll then get batted back & forth to fair value when the actuals print.

As you’ll already be aware, the masses work mostly on tit bits & chatter. They price in what they think & trade accordingly. When it hits the tape, it gets re-adjusted & on we go again.

Sure, by all means browse the Reuters & Bloombergs & maybe any of the top tier Bank sheets you can sniff out. But at the end of the day, none of them really know what’s in the pie until it gets baked. They all got their favored angle & flow matrix etc, but most of the time it’s reflected in the price bars.

What you do with all that will depend on which timeframe(s) you’re looking at.

Which is why I like to see the color of the peak-trough steps meandering their way back & forth on the mid frames (30m thru 240m). An eye on the weeklies & dailies will usually keep me on the correct side of the track, the rest comes down to whichever cycle we find ourselves in (trend or range) on the timeframes I’m viewing as to how I'm gonna play it.

I’ve long given up wearing out what’s left of my grey matter, attempting to make sense of all the crud out there. They only tell you what they want you to hear anyway. Most of the analysts would make good (bad) politicians.

There are far savvier players than me out there gone broke trying to play that game!

 

[ampro]

what you thinking from this point, heads up to get short or add to longs on a longer term ?

sorry CB, I just saw this one as I scrolled back up .

My own take remains mid term bullish on Geppy down to the previous range top @ 234.50. It's a buy on dips off of my s&r zones (providing they hit during waking hrs).

Short-term strat would have me flipping short on a break & test of 237.60 to said same range top. No earlier than that for me.

Similar outlook on Cable. It’s not like it’s a difficult instrument to work out given the ongoing basic fundamentals & well behaved technicals.

The levels I got down from current heights are: 2.0750 (minor) & 2.0650 to 2.0550 where it would need to start showing some muscle.

Break & test of .0750 would interest me on a short-term run down to the latter 2 zones.

I see 2.0460 as it’s major defense though!

Well, for what it’s worth they’re my near near term action/watch zones anyhow.

Obviously, those short term levels shoot down the pan & require re-calibrating if the Payrolls whip the idiots up into a frenzy.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd remains bid post-nfp and buy the dip remains the order of the day (so far!!)
Even a +166k jobs addition couldn't dent the overall bullish tone as yet, although I am sure that the market is wary of the number now with the ridiculous revisions and seeming inconsistencies with the related numbers such as wkly intitial claims and unemployment rate that occur.

$ bulls were looking for a strong print with upward revisions and good wage growth to carry into the xmas spending season, but so far €$ has responded with a new life time high.

Would you look at that, a techie getting all fundamental!! I'll have to watch that.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Cheers for ya insights ampro, my setups cracked off a short 239.80/90 zone, so hopefully that support will go .......... and not :arrowu: .

As for the Fuzzymentals, your right I think, headache material.

 

[bbmac]

The chart attached shows the 15min confirming short set-up following the knee jerk intial dip and buy post NFP in gbpusd. The resistance was of course area of yesterday's highs, and the 1.618% extension swing of 0755-0825. Mni had confirmed with their view that offers resided in the 0865/75 area stonger on approach to reported option barrier at 0900, 0890 to that level seeing the likley strongest area of offers.

messy at the moment 15min and below

(15min Rev C [marg])

 

[bbmac]

re 1hr screenshot gbpusd, white lines show the recent 1hr consolidation channel, green lines where most of the price action resides in that channel....ie likeliest place for it to find resistance on a break to the downside and re-test / break to the upside, ..support on a retest.

 

[bbmac]

The screenshot shows how the 5min fib tunnels Red extremes) had conmtracted and were moving horizontally almost like the old Joe Ross (gimme bar relationship to bol bands theory) at that set-up short decsribed in post 73 above. Price had m,ade a breech of the extreme fib tunnels on 1 and 5min and of the upper donchian channel on 1 5 and 15min and of course the horizonal fib channels [aqua and blue] had come across implying upside resistance. All of these technical factors added to the confluence of reasons to short there.

U.s Factory orders came in better that previous..... gbp selling atm...well I guess good U.s data makes a change atm for any with a long term $ bullish biais

 

[bbmac]

Anyone in need of a simple little technical edge, here's one:

Ant-trend/range scalping:

Can be used on any time frame, but the osma/macd extreme values are diffferent. Shown here on the 1min trigger time frame.

Long:

a. CCi extends outside the bol bands to an extreme level
b. CCi begins to turn back up as macd and osma make an extreme
c. price touches/exceeds first res/supp channel extreme on main chart wibndow...first is green dotted, 2nd is red dotted.
d, price deviated from all 4 bol bands in configuration/pattern indicated in examples

Enter long on first bullish candle.

Opposite for shorts.

Be careful if against strong trend not expecting a high score ...of course if you have extremes/divergence at support/resistance on your longer time frames could hold for bigger target.

indicators and templates attached as are 3 examples in gbpusd today.

Use at own risk/tolerances/discretion.

 

[ampro]

Cheers for ya insights ampro, my setups cracked off a short 239.80/90 zone, so hopefully that support will go .......... and not :arrowu: .

Yeah, it really needs a daily close to the + side of 240.0 to encourage things along a bit.

Ahh, we'll see huh! Hope your short plays ball

 

[Crap Buddist]

gbpusd remains bid post-nfp and buy the dip remains the order of the day (so far!!)
Even a +166k jobs addition couldn't dent the overall bullish tone as yet, although I am sure that the market is wary of the number now with the ridiculous revisions and seeming inconsistencies with the related numbers such as wkly intitial claims and unemployment rate that occur.

$ bulls were looking for a strong print with upward revisions and good wage growth to carry into the xmas spending season, but so far €$ has responded with a new life time high.

Would you look at that, a techie getting all fundamental!! I'll have to watch that.

Er, you'll have to pack that in..... I suppose if anything what may seem like a logical way the Fed's should act just highlights how the markets are manipulated or spoon fed, But then again these numbers,reports, who manipulates those as with any data I guess.

What I like about these financial commentators is when they say "well there you go trading up positive on those figures" then the smile vanishes from their face as they say " Well, now the streets down 100 points" and cut to weather..... They aint so bad they just seem not as bubbly when the market tanks ???? dunno why....

 

[bbmac]

If you want some more tech confirmation you can run the chart shown in the screenshot along side, it shows set-up at eg1 screenshot above. The indicators and template are in the zip file attached.

 

[ampro]

Would you look at that, a techie getting all fundamental!! I'll have to watch that.

I hear the meds taste real bad for that condition. 2 large spoonfulls 4x per day before meals lasting a month!!

If that cure fails, you got yourself an overnight stay on the wards for in depth surgery assessment.