FX trading Oct 22-26

[bbmac]

Hi Fish

Im not up to speed with the supp/res in eurusd, but your own thought holds tue for me. Oscillator extremes/divergence that appear at areas that I cannot identify reasons for potential supp/res at, are just pretty patterns. Also I tend to like the 4 cornerstone approach, ie: supp/res, osc div being 2 of the cornerstones of a trade, band deviation and price action confirm, being the other 2. (all within the context of trend) so that you have a confluence of reasons to enter the market at what may be a swing point on your trigger + chart.

For larger targets I like to see my 'trigger' confirmed by a set-up on the next time frame up , the 'intermediate' time frame, and preferbaly on the next/longer time frame you are trading too. This is particularly the case if against trend.

Also it's difficult to tell from your screenshot whether price made an equal hi (probably) which is ok, but it certainly didnt make a higher high which seem to be the better divergences.

 

[bbmac]

Fish: Example below shows the 1min and 5min confirm on an 0485ask entry.

The bids gave way at 0495-0505 with no set-up and latest MNI update talked of bids down to 0470. The 1min and 5min confirm came to give that entry, ie there was both oscillator divergence on the trigger and intermediate and band deviation at a known identifiable potential support area, and the price action confirmed. All 4cornerstones in place for a confluence of reasons to trade.

Area was also Daily M2, FS1 minor pivots and Dly L3 cam (break or bounce) pivot, as well as the 61.8% fib of the move up from weds lows to todays highs.

(Reversal C with 5min Reversal A seq confirm.)

 

[ampro]

Fish,

I don't often venture onto the intraday stage to be honest. Although my preference is to transact business via the hourly+ timeframes, I'll drill down & have a crack as & when opportunities present themselves.

I like Cable & the Yen crosses as they meander & float around their respective s&r zones, & they display repatative behaviour traits which fit with the types of triggers I like to employ on the short timeframes.

Currently, there are slightly differing agenda’s affecting the technicals in each camp, & Euro doesn't float my boat on the smaller frames at present levels. To be honest, it's a juggernaut & rarely interests me intraday.

As a mid to long term candidate however, it's a different scenario.

We all utilize different tools to transact our business. I like to flavor my analysis with a good chunk of fundamental input, & the UK & European (economist) camps are viwing the near term outlook thru different goggles.

In my view, that will affect how the technicals perform. Again, rightly or wrongly, I believe each pair adopts certain behaviour traits which deem it more condusive for specific strategy plays.

I simply prefer Cable, GBPJPY & EURJPY as my candidates when playing via the sub hourlies.

 

[ChowClown]

I simply prefer Cable, GBPJPY & EURJPY as my candidates when playing via the sub hourlies.

...likewise, some great subhrly price action (again) on those so far today....long may it continue

 

[ChowClown]

The full back-testing on this just didn't give me the confidence to trade it. As I said in earlier posts the average pips per week just weren't enough to interest me - I think the drawdown would really scare me with this system. So I decided to leave it alone.

Having a really hard time with the trading at the moment. Things are definitely not going my way and I'm losing confidence and wondering - after 3 years - if this is something I can do. Sorry to have a moan guys - bad trading week, has left my account really down.

Every time before I've dusted myself off and started again - but now I'm wondering why this time should be any different. Why should it work this time, when it hasn't before?

It seems that things work for a while and then everything goes pear shaped. In August I was up over 50% on my account for the year. Now I'm down -38%. September and October just haven't gone my way - or to my trading plan/strategy.

I think someone 'up there' doesn't like me very much.

Really sorry to have a moan - having a really bad day

Hi JillyB, heart went out to you when I read this....have you worked through the price action and other simple strats over on babypips?...definitely worth a look if you haven't....might help get you back on track.

Hope your head clears soon and you're back firing on all cylinders....don't give up.

 

[JillyB]

Hi JillyB, heart went out to you when I read this....have you worked through the price action and other simple strats over on babypips?...definitely worth a look if you haven't....might help get you back on track.

Hope your head clears soon and you're back firing on all cylinders....don't give up.

Thanks Chow, I'll have a look through it this afternoon.

 

[bbmac]

Finishing trading here for the week.

This 0535/37 area in gbpusd certainly interesting. It was a 5/15/30min higher swing low on earlier move up to 0575 area, then caused resistance on a retrace back up to it on the way down, and again from the recovery off todays lows. An intraday break above it may see it acting as support again from the upside.

 

[ampro]

Cable will shut up shop printing an outside week, closing at the highs. We don't got too much in the way of data to worry this pair until Wednesday's FOMC gig, so I guess they'll toss it around using the rumor mill re: 1/4 or 1/2 point move in the rates unless something else spooks it in the meantime.

There are certainly adequate markers below here to guage the flows if the buck decides to go on a run, but I guess the brunt of the early week chatter will revolve around the Fed meeting.

 

[qsx]

here we got 2 variants of situation for Monday 29.10.2007:

 

[bbmac]

qsx: So it will go down, or up then down? (LOL) Of course it could just go up, and then again it go down then up.....or any combination in the middle.

Seriously though, are they the two most likely EW outcomes ?

 

[trendie]

does anybody HATE the weekends?
ever since I have started to trade full-time, I dread the dead-time that is Sat and Sun!

not that I would necessarily trade the weekends, its just knowing I could if I wanted to, much like I could get up at 3-am and trade FX, if I wanted to.

is this the plus-side of working for oneself, in that it becomes a pleasure rather than a chore?

 

[hornblower]

does anybody HATE the weekends?
ever since I have started to trade full-time, I dread the dead-time that is Sat and Sun!

not that I would necessarily trade the weekends, its just knowing I could if I wanted to, much like I could get up at 3-am and trade FX, if I wanted to.

is this the plus-side of working for oneself, in that it becomes a pleasure rather than a chore?

the weekend gives me time to do other things
the grass only gets cut at the weekend, trip to the local tip
the odd job that want doing , wash the car,take my wife out to dinner all these things, and lots more get done at the weekend ,
I think we, and the markets need time, and we need thinking time for the week ahead

Trendie I think you must live on your own , because at the weekend I see my kids and grand kids there dogs ,and several friends pop in the see me or my wife
just would not be able to trade at the weekend

but I do have a small confession to make
when every one is at my house all at the same time , I do sneak into my office and look at a few charts and work out what i think is going to happen for monday
get a life

all the best
Hornblower

 

[shadowninja]

I hope this doesn't come across as being presumptuous but perhaps you could consider the reason why you trade. It is to earn more money to enable you to lead the lifestyle you desire, surely? If so, then enjoy the weekend. If you like the rush you get from risking your money then perhaps you could take up an extreme sport or try gambling online? (I only say this because I read this from a trading guide online only yesterday.)

I do understand what you mean, though. I was thinking that I wish the markets were open so I could do a little trading this evening, but only because I want to continue to test an on-going method I've been looking at.

That said, you are blessed to have found an income-generating idea that you enjoy doing. 95% of the UK population are thinking, "Thank God it's the weekend. Monday is only 1 day away. " I used to love Fridays and hate Mondays. Now it's the other way round.

 

[trendie]

hornblower: yes, I do live on my own! but, yes, because I spend so much time on my own, I make a point of going out and meeting family friends, otherwise I could spend my time as a hermit. I tend to mow the lawn between 11-am and 1-pm on weekdays. also do the shopping between those times, as they are between end of big euro-session move and before us-session open.

shadowninja: I see trading as a game, and once I have my minimum pips, I feel relaxed. so, prehaps I am being greedy, just for the action rather than profit.

I guess I should appreciate the downtime, and just chill. I am just being hyper.
its weird, if I have a bad few trades, I dread taking the next trade, but when I am trading in the sweet-spot, I cant wait.

 

[qsx]

qsx: So it will go down, or up then down? (LOL) Of course it could just go up, and then again it go down then up.....or any combination in the middle.

Seriously though, are they the two most likely EW outcomes ?

there are 2 variants of movement: up and down. According to Wave analisis i've marked those two variants on the pictures. You shold trade the facts, but not the forecast.
When you see the 1st wave trade in the way of this 1st wave.And those two variants just to know what is that wave on a bigger timescale.

 

[bbmac]

Thanks qsx, appreciated your explanation.