FX trading Nov05 - Nov09

[bbmac]

area of 72-85 is a previous hourly swing lo, in that last 5/15min potential SBR zone described above. 0992 is the 23.6 of the move, 1025 being 38.2 and 1051 being 50%.

the attached Reversal set-up presented on the 5min (intermediate) at the current bottoms, a similar Reversal type C as 1min posted above. It wasnt perfectly formed, but with other tech confluence discussed earlier in this thread, it looked a fair set-up.

U.s data due in 3mins, G/l

(5min Rev C)

 

[graemenash]

Current open position on EUR/JPY

1min type C reversal, confirmed by slightly marginal 5min hidden div & 20ema, into strong intraday downtrend.

Sold 163.37 which was the 61.8 retrace following the reaction from the intial setup. Break of 0% low at 163.15 means stop in to b/e.

Price currently retracing higher towards my stop but with now zero risk on the trade there's nothing to worry about Would be nice to make some though as a very similar setup on AUDUSD was taken out for breakeven earlier.

 

[graemenash]

Lol - stopped out as I was posting the above!

 

[bbmac]

B/l graeme, suffered a similar B/e as was holding that reversal set-up above through data but it changed direction at hat y/days low, former hrly swing lo, area of Dly M1 just into that 5/15min SBR zone.

Oh well, no harm done.

 

[bbmac]

The Reversal A (ii) at that previosuly mentioned support zone is playing out from about an 0948ask entry...didn't trade it, as didn't see it in realtime, but it's there.

Good example of that type of Reversal set-up, macd showing the reg immed bullish divergence best of the 3 osc.

Cable lows slightly lower now at 225pips from the high.

 

[graemenash]

Good example on that GBP/USD setup of the "second chance" 61.8 fib entry following the initial reaction.

Not that I traded it myself either as it was counter-trend, but still a good example.

 

[bbmac]

nice technique graeme...thx, often see a retest of an area and a higher low like that.

Nice example of the hidden divergence based reentry type 1 on 5min just gone, timed as a Reversal C on 1min....in that last 5/15min SBR zone.

Q? why wasnt 0968-0933 the last 5min SBR zone? beacuse the new low candle spiked back inside....so the 5/15min zone 0963-1037 remained stronger as a potential SBR zone.

BTW: not expecting new lows on this re-entry just scalping for a few pips -or- stop quickly at b/e....and see what hapens

 

[bbmac]

sorry set-up described above is here:

 

[bbmac]

better set-up above at 1012bid area, atthat Wkly R1/ 2 x fibs with 38.2 fib of the move down..confluence at 1016-22, higher into that last 5/15min potential SBR zone. 5min Set-up turned into a Reentry type 3 froma Rentry type 1 , 1min trigger a Rev A (ii) seq.

 

[bbmac]

set-ups decsribed abover are here..I haven't put the divergence lines in, as it can be easily seen. Both the regular seq on 1min and the hidden/reverse on 5min.

(1min Rev A [ii] seq with 5min Reentry type 2 confirm.)

 

[bbmac]

will there be any £ respite on this weak michigan #?? 75 the headline against 80.9 prev and 80 the forecast consensus.

 

[graemenash]

USDCAD trade to end the week....

not the best setup by a long shot (wasn't technically a divergence) but intuition said it was good, and I was possibly a little eager to trade having missed a perfect setup on the same pair around 1235-1255 gmt, and having seen that EURJPY trade from earlier go a long way after stopping me out b/e

Long 9407 on the retrace following the reaction, took half off at 23 and stop to b/e on the other half. Hopefully it will run a little...

 

[graemenash]

Out of the other half b/e

 

[bbmac]

wd.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd: 0931-1015 will become the new 5/15/30min SBR zone if new lows are made, but with a 225 hi-lo pip range alraedy, it's looking like it might be a bigger IF than not?

 

[Mr.Black]

I am short on EUR/USD

 

[bbmac]

g/l with that Mr. Black.

Finishing here for day/week, as Europe/London winds down.

Latest MNi update: bids at lows through 0920, ahead of 0900 through 0890 stops below, 0875/60 and 0850 likely areas too.

To the upside offers likley at that 1020/25 area, stronger toward 1050 ahead of 1085/00. 1049 is 50% of the down move so far, all 225 pips of it. 1022 is the 38.2 in region of wkly r1 at 1016 and 2 x fibs of the longer moves mentioned earlier today in this thread.

That 1064-72 area houses the prev asian lo, and weds Hi along with the daily pivot...the 61.8 of the move down is at 1074.

G/L all.

 

[graemenash]

One more trade... can't help myself lol

Short EURJPY 162.90 on 61.8 retrace following 1min typce C reversal confirmed by good 5min hidden div, 10 bol & 34ema, with no significant reversal pattern on 30min+

Took half out at 162.64 (161.8 extension) and hopefully let the other half run to 423.6 extension at 162.16.

Stop on remaining half to 162.64

EDIT
-----
4.11pm 1min bar completes with OHLC all below 261.8 extension, so stop on remaining half moves to 162.46

 

[bbmac]

great trade graeme, wd, and 5min looked good as well, with the optimum Reversal C entry falling into that chart's last potential SBR zone.

Quick question? are you waiting for the retest of entry using that lower high / higher low 61.8 fib technique as an extra filter before taking such set-ups? Seems a good way of confirming them, and getting over that 'oh it's going against me...get at b/e 'syndrome, if so.

wd.

 

[graemenash]

4.21pm remaining half stopped out at 162.46, having traded to within half a pip of my limit at 162.16 offered..... on closer inspection I miscalculated the extensions and my limit should have actually been half a pip higher! But the "human factor" has been my undoing all week.

Re: the entries, yep I wait for the original divergence signal to "prove itself" before entering on a retrace. As you probably remember when I traded the divergence setups themselves I had a real problem "pulling the trigger", that is now not an issue because the signal already looks good.

Also eliminates the need to extensively study what the support/resistance is around the area of the original signal as there's no need really, all you need to knwo is that it was strong enough to produce a reaction.

Finally working with fib concepts in this way gives very clear and precise trade management techniques, i.e aiming for extensions etc.

i really should commit this system to paper/word doc at some stage lol!