FX trading Nov05 - Nov09

[shadowninja]

What is going on Tokyo-side? I suppose you lot are all asleep. I'd just had a really good game of Battlefield 2 and was checking my overnight trade... it's shot up (EUR/USD). And GBP/USD reaches new high $2.11.

 

[Crap Buddist]

You Sank my shorts !!!

What is going on Tokyo-side? I suppose you lot are all asleep. I'd just had a really good game of Battlefield 2 and was checking my overnight trade... it's shot up (EUR/USD). And GBP/USD reaches new high $2.11.

always looking for reasons aint we? if you look at a small t/f you can see the demand angle pretty steep on approach to the previous ny highs, often you see that coming then , essentially, I see it as a strong setup for it trading higher, taking out stops ? short term traders ? doesnt really matter , but i see it as strong demand approaching a high . looks like at this time its gonna attempt to push further...

You Sank my shorts !!! :cheesy: periscope up.

your homework, watch Pearly Harbour this weekend , for inspiration on sneaky raids.

 

[Crap Buddist]

I see no ships.....

oooops, sorry I was thinking of battleships, you said battlefileds ? mmm interesting

well bull army positioned ****loads of its troops, right under the noses of the bear armies defense line, so many off the ****ers, too strong piled over (well went through) bears defense , gave em a good kicking, robbed all the booty, and got the hell out of dodge for a rethink on next sortie. er Sort of.

Jolly good men ? Lovely carry on....

Tea n bikkies 0830

I see no ships.....

your film for this one..... Zulu (theres thousands of em sir) Rorkes drift.... As an aside I had a bottle of wine from the Rorkes drift region, wow talk about plonk with some background, slaughter in a glass.

Chin chin ol boy.

 

[Crap Buddist]

GBPJPY 237.80 :arrowd: off the open here by the looks..... right old ding dong range

 

[shadowninja]

Ah, I see.

Battlefield 2: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battlefield_2

Fun game. I probably need to grow up.

 

[Crap Buddist]

GBPJPY cashed 236.85 , early finish for me... monster hours all week....

Did have a long flagged from 236.30 the other day, is it gonna trade through that? dunno, i'm switchin off for the weekend.....

cheers all.

 

[bbmac]

c u C_B have a good w/e.

Uk trade defecit comes in at a record high (0930am gmt) seeing cable sell off as the knee jerk reaction.

MNi talking about minor offers now at 1100/10, more at the asian high 1143 through 1150, stops 1160. 1180 the next likely area to the upside ahead of 1200 area...

Bids to the downside likley at that 1065/50, some stops at 1030, 1010/00 through 0985 next likley area they add.

 

[bbmac]

smart recovery off knee jerk £ sell off on that trade defecit data,blowing through minor offers at 1100/10 and 1145/50 area finding resistance around thjt 76.4% fib of 0520-4460, (1164) but seemd to trip any stops placed around that later area.

1164 is coincidentally the area of the first Dly cam target H4 that follows an H3 b/o.

Nice Reversal set-up there confirmed by 5min and other supporting factors, 1min trigger screenshot as attached.


Mni saying 1180 and 1200 stronger toward, now the potential upside resistance above current highs. 1197 is area of Dly R2 pivot with 1203 area being Mthly R2 pivot.

(1min Reversal A seq at extremes)

 

[bbmac]

382 pip range in gbpusd so far this week 0781-1163, above last weeks 369 and well above the 5 10 and 20 averages of 272, 296 and 302 respectively. Nice.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

USDJPY, my pet, is going down. Took out August 16 low. If it closes below that today, that should form good resistance, but it has to do that. This is a pair tough to trade on technicals due to the credit crunch issue and possible intervention. The former is a worry because part of the reason for this move seems to be the carry trade effect. Look at the AUDUSD. The USD is gaining there and that phenomenon is not orderly, thereby posing a threat to a steady decline in the USDJPY move just started. Whipsaws can therefore easily exhaust any repeated attempt at following the downward trend.

However, shorts below the August lows should offer good r:r. Stops above that level should be respected, as always. If the negative USD sentiment remains and that resistence holds, this can offer a good x-mas present with good size. You never know, the thing may go to 100 by year end. (one secret to success in trading is holding some trades for huge winners. I have no idea whether this will be a big winner from where price is now, but this is a probability game). Good luck.

 

[bbmac]

interesting analysis fx_scalper, thx.

BOJ has historically been the most interventionist of the central banks in recent years and blind too, do you really think it remains a possibility? wow, interesting times ahead.

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Cable can't stay away from the asian range 1065-1143 today, 2 breaks to the upside sold back into after support found at it's base post Uk data which was also a previous Hrly Swing Hi and Lo in the area....see chart

 

[bbmac]

The area A on screenshot is the last 'real' potential RBS zone on that 1hr time frame as although area B made a higher high and higher low, when price exceeded the higher high it spiked back inside the zone, ie there was no candle close above that higher high of zone b, hence it is a weaker RBS zone than the one below (A), which is also a 4hr RBS zone potential.

Intraday looking bearish/rangy now gbpusd, but it is a buy on dips market, ...so far, lol.

 

[FXSCALPER2]

bbmac, my gut feel is that the BOJ will probably let the USDJPY go down. Also they are unlikely to succeed if they try to stop it in the face of serious carry trade unwind.

For the purposes of our trading, however, it is crucial we are aware of all the stuff that is likely to happen and be prepared to get out of harms way by preparing a plan for doing so. In situations like this I go with a spread betting company with a guaranteed stop so I know if something happens, I will be out. I am holding this one for as long as it is going down. Most of the time when I do this, my stop gets hit. It is now at 111.90. If the resistance doesn't give way and the thing goes down a lot, the beer is on me.

 

[bbmac]

Lol, thx fx_scalper.

Great price action in cable this a.m, so far 164pips off the high, finding support at bids around Dly S1, 1000 area .

area of 1035 is 23.6% of the move 38.2% comes in at 1059 area of that previous daily/asian low, with 1062 area of the Dly pivot..... that 23.6% has offered resistance once...let's see

 

[bbmac]

199 down from the highs now finding support now at that 0970 level (bids 0985/70 given by mni) now saying 0970-50, after finding resistance at the then 23.6% fib off the support at 1000/1010 area.

38.2% of the total move now resisting at 1038 area after a swift recovery from 0968 lows. 50% comes in at 1062 which is the area of Dly pivot and previous asian lows area, on any extended recovery.

Lots of sub-prime rumours and barclays rights issue rumours circulating atm...

 

[bbmac]

bet the 199pip reversal off today's highs shook out a few stops.

 

[graemenash]

Certainly took mine out, although that's what I get for taking marginal setups!

Almost a 5 pip slippage too (Saxo)

 

[bbmac]

Hi graeme, B/l.

The screenshot is the great Reversal type C that set up at the current lows (known well to you.) I only saw one re-entry on the way down which was the reentry type 3 at the then 23.6% fib around 1035area, now rettested and now being the 38.2% fib at 1038 of the total 199 down move from the highs. Got my eye on that 1062 area trhough for any extended pullback,

 

[bbmac]

latest MNi update:

offers likley now 1040/50, ahead of 1085/00, bids likley in that 0970-50 region ahead of 0930/20, 0927 is Dly S2

 

[bbmac]

23.6% of 0258-1163 and 38.2 of 0565-1163 come in at 0947 and 0933 respectively lending some support currently. price bouncing off the 23.6% fib extension of yesterdays lo-hi range at 0938 inbetween these two . Last 5/15min potential SBR zone becomes 0963-1037 now.

221 off the highs and well above yesterdays and the 5/1o/20 day average pip ranges.