FX Trading May 21-25

[a_gnome]

Morning all,
Interesting that there are so many short biases around at the moment. For my 2p's worth we are STILL in the downward sloping trend though we only just touched the upper line (depending on where you draw it) and are now spending more time scraping along the lower line. While this does point to a downward bias it does make it harder to take a short at this location within the band as the downside is limited by the lower line.

In terms of market action it's been in a narrow band of congestion for the last few hours that have set my trend indicators (various EMA's) to neutral so it could break-out in either direction.

Conclusion: I'm standing aside for now until I see something worth trading.

Well, I've gone long now at 45. With any luck we should be heading back to the top of the channel now, which currently stands at around 1.9820. I'll take half off if it goes far enough in profit and trail a stop on the rest. Just got to watch this trend line (May 17th high and the two May 18th swing highs) currently at 50 which is roughly half way down the channel. Even though it's broken through it may well come back to test it and even break back below it.

 

[jacinto]

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=331953&postcount=55

jacintos wolfe-wave has got to be the call of the day??

It would had i taken it as such, which i didnt. So credit should go to Pearl, who did call 98, and did take the long.

perfect evidence that brain and intuition are not necessarily the same

j

EDIT:
I guess what I meant with the underlined phrase above is that it is tough when your brain tells you one thing, but your intuition tells you another.

On the one hand, one should follow the brain (yet it may form opinions and reasoning can be blurred in consequence). On the other, intuition, as long as it is not gut feeling, is when you simply know what will happen, be it from reading price, or I dont know what.

The tough thing of not using indicators and only using price, is that at times reason and intuition are not aligned. I have found that it is better to stand aside when that happens. At least it keeps me out of trouble. On the other hand, it makes me leave money on the table. something to work on.

 

[Crap Buddist]

closed long 1.9725 at 1.9749. not taking any shorts, im done for the day. Weve had no real pull back since the break from 25, so wouldnt be surprised, to see something pop down. If only to pop back up.

 

[a_gnome]

Well, I've gone long now at 45. With any luck we should be heading back to the top of the channel now, which currently stands at around 1.9820. I'll take half off if it goes far enough in profit and trail a stop on the rest. Just got to watch this trend line (May 17th high and the two May 18th swing highs) currently at 50 which is roughly half way down the channel. Even though it's broken through it may well come back to test it and even break back below it.

Well after a bit of to-ing and frow-ing it's managed to work it's way through the trend line level to higher ground. Stop now at 36, looking to take half off at 75

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Cable has traded roughly as expected. We have seen 1.9750 breached and a subsequent run through to 1.9770. However overall upward performance has fallen short of expectations. Profits have been taken in the Cable and Euro long positions today.

Next move: A reversal at the current level (1.9765) and selling into the failed run at 1.9800. Targeting the much lower 1.9680 area.

 

[jacinto]

Cable has traded roughly as expected. We have seen 1.9750 breached and a subsequent run through to 1.9770. However overall upward performance has fallen short of expectations. Profits have been taken in the Cable and Euro long positions today.

Next move: A reversal at the current level (1.9765) and selling into the failed run at 1.9800. Targeting the much lower 1.9680 area.

me dont think the move up is finished just yet.

j

 

[Atilla]

me dont think the move up is finished just yet.

j

Nor do I.

Gold is down almost $3 at $661.

Oil has also come off highs.

Signals dollar weakness.

Dollar weakness likely to continue imo and I think we will be knocking on 1.98 once 1.9760 is breached. Perhaps tomorrow.

 

[jacinto]

Nor do I.

Gold is down almost $3 at $661.

Oil has also come off highs.

Signals dollar weakness.

Dollar weakness likely to continue imo and I think we will be knocking on 1.98 once 1.9760 is breached. Perhaps tomorrow.

well, dont know about the other stuff, but cable has taken the weekly open and yesterdays high.

on the other hand, it still hasnt taken 70-75 which is a swing high from last week, and it has almost given the 70ish pip range of the previous 2 sessions. so it could be the end of the run today.

so, for a selloff, i really would like to see a test of 70-75ish and reject it cleanly (i.e. a pinbar, a 123, or something similar). Otherwise, as long as 30-45 holds, there is still some life in the beast.

j

 

[JillyB]

Hi Everyone,

It's been a crap sort of day today! I've had a terrible day at work - the contract I'm doing (which was supposed to only be for 3 weeks at the beginning of December and is still ongoing) was really fraught today. Consultants not doing what they're supposed - like talking to a brick wall at times

Ahh, well feel a bit better for having a bit of a moan:!:

Down -48 today. First losing trade since 2nd May - so shouldn't really grumble, but being unable to access my account at work meant it went into profit for a short time (while I was in a meeting) and then ended up being stopped out. This is where I wish I was back trading/working from home and not away from my pc. My desire to take a small profit or break-even, would have probably cut in today. Still I did trade the plan - set my target down to 20pips as the trade wasn't in profit at 8.00am and let it run. Usually the reversal at 8.00am will hit this, but today it didn't. Never mind!

Tonight, looks like it will be a buy trade for me - my check time for this is 10pm. This is when I make the decision.

Got to keep reminding myself that just because today was losing, doesn't mean tomorrow will be.

Repeat after me:
I must trade the plan.
I must trade the plan.
I must trade the plan.
:cheesy:

 

[a_gnome]

Hi Everyone,

It's been a crap sort of day today! I've had a terrible day at work - the contract I'm doing (which was supposed to only be for 3 weeks at the beginning of December and is still ongoing) was really fraught today. Consultants not doing what they're supposed - like talking to a brick wall at times

Ahh, well feel a bit better for having a bit of a moan:!:

Down -48 today. First losing trade since 2nd May - so shouldn't really grumble, but being unable to access my account at work meant it went into profit for a short time (while I was in a meeting) and then ended up being stopped out. This is where I wish I was back trading/working from home and not away from my pc. My desire to take a small profit or break-even, would have probably cut in today. Still I did trade the plan - set my target down to 20pips as the trade wasn't in profit at 8.00am and let it run. Usually the reversal at 8.00am will hit this, but today it didn't. Never mind!

Tonight, looks like it will be a buy trade for me - my check time for this is 10pm. This is when I make the decision.

Got to keep reminding myself that just because today was losing, doesn't mean tomorrow will be.

Repeat after me:
I must trade the plan.
I must trade the plan.
I must trade the plan.
:cheesy:

Hi Jilly,
Could you post your decision at 10 pm? It's just that I'm still holding my open long trade and I'd be interested in hearing your analysis when I decide whether to hold it open overnight.

BTW I'm interested to learn more about your decision process and how you decide which direction you go for. You did mention looking at the order of the high and low for the day (low first for today) and how far it's retraced (currently less than 32% of the low to high distance) so I'm guessing that it would be a long but do correct me if I'm wrong. You also mentioned Gartley patterns somewhere - how do they fit into everything? Also what time does your day's range start from (e.g. 8am or 10pm the previous night)?

Hope it's not too many questions!

 

[JillyB]

Hi Jilly,
Could you post your decision at 10 pm? It's just that I'm still holding my open long trade and I'd be interested in hearing your analysis when I decide whether to hold it open overnight.

BTW I'm interested to learn more about your decision process and how you decide which direction you go for. You did mention looking at the order of the high and low for the day (low first for today) and how far it's retraced (currently less than 32% of the low to high distance) so I'm guessing that it would be a long but do correct me if I'm wrong. You also mentioned Gartley patterns somewhere - how do they fit into everything? Also what time does your day's range start from (e.g. 8am or 10pm the previous night)?

Hope it's not too many questions!

Hi a_gome,

Ok. The day's range starts at midnight until 10pm and I take the high and low of this range. Looking at an hourly chart, the low was formed between 4.00-5.00am and the high was formed between 16.00-17.00. So, the high was formed second and the price has settled around the 38% fib retracement from the high. Therefore I will be looking to go long tonight. I use a 2 min chart with a stochastic indicator on to narrow down the entry and tonight I will be waiting for the stochastic to drop below the 25 level, somewhere between 10pm and midnight for my entry.

There is no Gartley pattern today, but they do happen. It's usually more visible on a 30min chart and happens after the high and low for the day have been formed. The pattern may form - for instance - a high second and then make lower highs and lower lows, looking as if it's starting to form a downward channel, only to break out and continue upwards. The Gartley's confused me a bit to start with as I would look at the charts and saw these lower highs and lows and was convinced the price was going down. However it would never retrace beyond the 88.8% fib before going back up again.

So now I'm waiting for the price to fall - not by much tonight - if it goes down to 1.9744 or 45 I will be looking for an entry.

Hope this makes sense.

 

[a_gnome]

Hi a_gome,

Ok. The day's range starts at midnight until 10pm and I take the high and low of this range. Looking at an hourly chart, the low was formed between 4.00-5.00am and the high was formed between 16.00-17.00. So, the high was formed second and the price has settled around the 38% fib retracement from the high. Therefore I will be looking to go long tonight. I use a 2 min chart with a stochastic indicator on to narrow down the entry and tonight I will be waiting for the stochastic to drop below the 25 level, somewhere between 10pm and midnight for my entry.

There is no Gartley pattern today, but they do happen. It's usually more visible on a 30min chart and happens after the high and low for the day have been formed. The pattern may form - for instance - a high second and then make lower highs and lower lows, looking as if it's starting to form a downward channel, only to break out and continue upwards. The Gartley's confused me a bit to start with as I would look at the charts and saw these lower highs and lows and was convinced the price was going down. However it would never retrace beyond the 88.8% fib before going back up again.

So now I'm waiting for the price to fall - not by much tonight - if it goes down to 1.9744 or 45 I will be looking for an entry.

Hope this makes sense.

Thanks very much for the clarification. I've decided to close half my position to reduce the risk and to hold the other half overnight. Let's hope we both get a good upward move overnight.

 

[JillyB]

Buy at 1.9740/43.

Will leave this until 7.40 - 8.00am to see if I'm in profit.

 

[jacinto]

Buy at 1.9740/43.

Will leave this until 7.40 - 8.00am to see if I'm in profit.

where's your stop jilly?

 

[JillyB]

where's your stop jilly?

Stop is at 1.9795
Target (just in case it flies up whilst I'm alseep) 1.9803

Optimum time for exiting trade is at 7.40am ish (if in profit and stochastic on 2 min needs to be above 75). If in profit trade should be exited before 8.00am.

I'm off to bed now. Night

 

[madmax_uk]

Stop is at 1.9795
Target (just in case it flies up whilst I'm alseep) 1.9803

Optimum time for exiting trade is at 7.40am ish (if in profit and stochastic on 2 min needs to be above 75). If in profit trade should be exited before 8.00am.

I'm off to bed now. Night

I'm holding a slightly nervous short at the moment on cable. I think that it is at +- a resistance level that has held for the last few days on my 4 hr chart and my RSI and stoch are pointing to a downwards move. i don't think it will be a big move, but will hopefully gain a few pips!
but like i said, a slightly nervous short!

 

[zuke]

I have taken the short at 9729, based on the doji on the 30 Min chart. Have a tight stop at 9745 representing a breakout of the mornings action. On the downside, Im looking for a close under 9712 to open up 9615-9630 region

Stopped out for -16 and now biased to the long side.

EDIT: Just been filled on my buy order. Hence, I am:

6 lots
LONG 9753
STOP 9732
TP 1 - 9774 (s/o 1 lot and move trade to b/e)
TP 2 - 9795 (s/o 2 lots)
TP 3 - 9837 (s/o 3 lots)

 

[JillyB]

Closed at 7.40am for 10 pip profit. Nice start to the morning.

 

[zuke]

Closed at 7.40am for 10 pip profit. Nice start to the morning.

Good stuff Jilly. Always nice to start the day in profit. Do you trade large size?

 

[a_gnome]

Stop is at 1.9795
Target (just in case it flies up whilst I'm alseep) 1.9803

Optimum time for exiting trade is at 7.40am ish (if in profit and stochastic on 2 min needs to be above 75). If in profit trade should be exited before 8.00am.

I'm off to bed now. Night

Morning Jilly,
I've just exited at your 7:40 exit time for a small (~10 pip) improvement on my level at 10pm last night so thank's very much for the guidance. I may start following your method (with small trade amounts) to get a feel for what is involved.

Can I ask (more questions!) how far back you tested this approach?