FX Trading June 11th - 15th

[a_gnome]

As an aside, my trading philosophy has totaly changed recently. I have spent the last 6 months, spending every minute I had getting to grips with the quant aspects of Tom Demarks indies as well as their use. I have been using them so the last 3 months (mainly on the Crude & Softs markets - my main markets) and they have been nothing short of amazing! I will start forward testing them next week on fx. Defo worth a look if you havent already.

Hi zuke,
very interested to hear about the Tom Demark stuff. Whenever I've looked at it, it's seemed to be completely useless! Which things of his are you using? Perhaps I should look again.

 

[trendie]

The last thing I remember about Johnny T is that he became very disillusioned with trading as his "Spot On" b/o system when through a very rough period. Not sure if he's still trading. As for DC..I think he realised that his ability to call turns in the market were better suited to making him a billionairre! Some of his calls were unbelieveably good! Not sure about FC.

As an aside, my trading philosophy has totaly changed recently. I have spent the last 6 months, spending every minute I had getting to grips with the quant aspects of Tom Demarks indies as well as their use. I have been using them so the last 3 months (mainly on the Crude & Softs markets - my main markets) and they have been nothing short of amazing! I will start forward testing them next week on fx. Defo worth a look if you havent already.

zuke,

do you recommend any books on Tom Demark?
(to stop me from fidgeting, I am reading David Blunketts book, On A Clear Day, the poems oof Sylvia Plath. and last noght ordered "The Way of the Turtles" (Curtis Faith), and Stridsmans "Trading Rules that Really Work". should stop me from constantly changing my charts. )

 

[smbtnt]

The 3 you mentioned trendie were inspirational FX traders in their own right along with hopeful and buk, 2 FX traders I had a lot of time for.

I also miss Skimbleshanks, bonsai, tradesmart, bigbusiness, china white, a320 and Chartman from the 'trading dark side' index threads. Their disappearance has been a great loss for T2W.

Wonder what they are upto these days.

 

[wasp]

The 3 you mentioned trendie were inspirational FX traders in their own right along with hopeful and buk, 2 FX traders I had a lot of time for.

I also miss Skimbleshanks, bonsai, tradesmart, bigbusiness, china white, a320 and Chartman from the 'trading dark side' index threads. Their disappearance has been a great loss for T2W.

Wonder what they are upto these days.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=20863

 

[smbtnt]

Thanks Wasp,

 

[jacinto]

I think that it might be making some kind of "shape" (triangle or congestion range of some sort) in which case there'll be more of this indecision for some time.

hi AG

is this what you are talking about? that kept me out of cable today till the chart clears up a bit.

just popped in to see my chart.

as much as i prefer the downside, that 75 barrier is what has kept me off today, and the risk of a lower high at that level more so since I am biased south

also, in pitchfork terms according to their specialists, not surprising price tends to visit the medianline 80% of the time.

hope the chart cleans up after the news.
j

edit: this is my market map for the next couple of weeks.

 

[zuke]

zuke,

do you recommend any books on Tom Demark?
(to stop me from fidgeting, I am reading David Blunketts book, On A Clear Day, the poems oof Sylvia Plath. and last noght ordered "The Way of the Turtles" (Curtis Faith), and Stridsmans "Trading Rules that Really Work". should stop me from constantly changing my charts. )

I started with his "New Market Timing Techniques: Innovative Studies in Market Rhythm & Price Exhaustion " and then went onto "The New Science of Technical Analysis"

I just finished his "Day Trading Options" book. The stuff is very in depth and requires a LOT of study (well it did for me anyway) in order to understand the concepts behind the indicators. I think too many people think that it is a magical indicator that will always tell them when the market is turning (aka "The Holy Grail").

I use the TD Sequential to warn of price exhaustion on the 4H, then use the TD Combo to lay the ground work for entry. As an additional tool, I use the ROC as an ob/os oscillator.

Entry comes by switching to the 15 min to buy dips or sell rallies.

I cant proclaim to be an expert, or that it works in FX, but on the commodities it has really worked for me, in the very short time (3M) Ive been using it.

 

[trendie]

EDIT: my Cable short at 9711 got triggered, as per my post last night.

bag +26 on half, out at 9685. stop to b/e.
hooray.

 

[smbtnt]

bag +26 on half, out at 9685. stop to b/e.
hooray.

Good trade there Trendie considering the small range in play today.
Personally awaiting some clean PA action off this 9675 level for the contra long.

 

[Atilla]

Good trade there Trendie considering the small range in play today.
Personally awaiting some clean PA action off this 9675 level for the contra long.

Position got Stopped out - 15.

Will wait for the news and afternoon session now.

 

[a_gnome]

hi AG

is this what you are talking about? that kept me out of cable today till the chart clears up a bit.

just popped in to see my chart.

as much as i prefer the downside, that 75 barrier is what has kept me off today, and the risk of a lower high at that level more so since I am biased south

also, in pitchfork terms according to their specialists, not surprising price tends to visit the medianline 80% of the time.

hope the chart cleans up after the news.
j

edit: this is my market map for the next couple of weeks.

Yes this 9680/75 levels seem to be holding too well so I've scratched my short. I still think that it will go lower to around 9660 at least but the risk-reward is not right and the markets not doing it for me.

Morning all,
Took a beating on cable yesterday: sold the low of the day, got stopped out, re-sold and got stopped out again (had stop too tight the second time). Anyway, I'm short again from 690 a bit underwater as we speak. I think that it might be making some kind of "shape" (triangle or congestion range of some sort) in which case there'll be more of this indecision for some time.

On the upside I'm long EURJPY from 162.79 so about +80 on that atm.

Good trading to all.

Now trailing a stop for half the EURJPY position below the hourly lows. It seems to be grinding its way upwards though - long may this continue.

 

[jacinto]

think you're right AG regarding the risk reward. well done on euryen.

wonder if again the visit to 76 will end up coinciding for the 3rd time with a 4hr close at 90. with a descending triangle as a consequence......guess the breakout should give direction either way.

j

 

[zuke]

Agree with everything you say, hence the word HOPE! I shorted (SB) at 13498, with a tight stop just the other side of 13500 res at 13518, so if Im wrong the damge wont be too bad.

Stopped out for -20 on the Dow. On the sidelines now until after the news

 

[a_gnome]

Yes this 9680/75 levels seem to be holding too well so I've scratched my short. I still think that it will go lower to around 9660 at least but the risk-reward is not right and the markets not doing it for me.

Well it got down to my level and then bounced straight back up again. Not really worth trading IMHO atm.

Now trailing a stop for half the EURJPY position below the hourly lows. It seems to be grinding its way upwards though - long may this continue.

Got stopped out on half on that blip downwards it's now making new highs for the move (hooray!). I'm trailing the rest with a wide stop.

 

[Atilla]

Stopped out for -20 on the Dow. On the sidelines now until after the news

Join us on the DOW thread Zuke. 575 is in sight. 60 will be breached in next hour or so imo.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Short term bulish on cable circa 1.9692, dunno how much it will give, but a small worm is turning I think.

I'd like to see it break 1.9735 , i'm long 1.9691 see what happens.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Mind you gotta break 1.9700 yet Thats a nut to crack... snarly beast.

 

[trendie]

I am having a crisis of confidence with my trading.

what would be a good net pip count per week/month? (obviously allowing for volatility)

I had set a target of something like 150-200 pips per week, but this is woefully optimistic. (cannot remember where I got those figures from)

my method of defining success is: divide number of pips gained per week with the high minus low of the week. (reason for this is to make allowances for good and bad weeks, by seeing my performance relative to what was available to be had.)

if I can gather at least 30% of the weekly range I am doing well. (bear in mind the market will go up and down many times during the week, its not a straight run)

however, I am being affected adversely by the number of failed trades. although I am not losing, mostly breaking even, I am concerned I am just treading water.

I am focussing almost exclusively on cable, and wonder whether spreading my trades would reduce the feelings of having to succeed if I scatter my risk across all 4 majors. but I am concerned about multiplying the commission pips as well.

Are my 150-200 per week realistic?

What do you do when you are going through a lean patch? (esp if you trade full-time)
(this is pretty scary, as if I dont get decent results, I may have go back to "real work" in Aug/Sep, when my funds run out. )

 

[Crap Buddist]

I am having a crisis of confidence with my trading.

what would be a good net pip count per week/month? (obviously allowing for volatility)

I had set a target of something like 150-200 pips per week, but this is woefully optimistic. (cannot remember where I got those figures from)

my method of defining success is: divide number of pips gained per week with the high minus low of the week. (reason for this is to make allowances for good and bad weeks, by seeing my performance relative to what was available to be had.)

if I can gather at least 30% of the weekly range I am doing well. (bear in mind the market will go up and down many times during the week, its not a straight run)

however, I am being affected adversely by the number of failed trades. although I am not losing, mostly breaking even, I am concerned I am just treading water.

I am focussing almost exclusively on cable, and wonder whether spreading my trades would reduce the feelings of having to succeed if I scatter my risk across all 4 majors. but I am concerned about multiplying the commission pips as well.

Are my 150-200 per week realistic?

What do you do when you are going through a lean patch? (esp if you trade full-time)
(this is pretty scary, as if I dont get decent results, I may have go back to "real work" in Aug/Sep, when my funds run out. )

hmm, depnds on what type of trader the individual if, I mean if we are intra day positional trend trading, then we should? hold for the trend , until it does otherwise. Thats based on going with the flow, what the market does & gives etc. Classic like my earlier trade today short 1.9710 hold, exit when i percieve trend chage, that yielded + 19, so I have to be willing to sacrifice and not get all twitchy when im seeing + 48, as it was.

Now todays range 1.9724 to 1.9656 , 68 Points, til now ive written in another thread somewhere about targets , I think 25% of todays range or the sessional range is good, 50% excellent, 100% and + taking the whatsit.

The thing is we dont know ? how far the days range will strech that day, so I like it as it keeps you on your toes with a challenging dynamic target to work towards.

That said nothing wrong with bagging fast points and buggering off when youve had enough.

so on todays range youve got 26 so far plus some ? thats very good considering the range. I dont like to think of fixed targets because when monster moves come then its or that will be a by product of still trading (for me anyway) following the same method and sticking to it. The points will be what they will be sort of thing.

what a rant.... make any sense.?

 

[Trader333]

Reading how many of you have been stopped out of your trades, I am curious to know on what basis you set your stop ? Is it a fixed number of pips etc


Paul