FX Trading June 11th - 15th

[Atilla]

i've watched a fair few of the vids now [kid in sweet shop]. the power of currency correlation stands out. i knew cable and swissy were opposites but i hadn't clicked you might be able to use a movement in one to predict a movement in the other.

curiously the thing they say comes closest to the 'holy grail' is the cot report but didn't mention further.

tiny cable range today so presumably breakout but which direction?

Morning all,

Very important day for cable imo with the big CPI stats coming out in the US. Should tell the bond markets where to go. When the markets are tight like this they are looking at news to feed off.

In these two StdErr Channels you can really clearly see where support kicks in and where resistance takes over. I love these SECs...

Here is my chart that I have been following and at the beginning of June I was considering a breakout to the down trend on the Std Err Channel. In fact I thought $2+ was here.

I didn't think we would fall below 1.97 but we did. However, I do think 1.96 will be a very strong support because it coincides with the long term SE channel support line as well as the short term one. Hence I still hold the view 1.96+ levels will hold and that a move up is in the wings.

Given all the heightened interest in bond activity & inflationary expectations in the US £ is still at 1.97. That to me speaks of strength in the £.

Finally, I still don't see the Fed raising rates. In March Bernanke made his famous speech about balancing inflation with growth. That was fundamental imo. Don't believe the Fed is worried about inflation as they should be.

In a nut shell with the elections round the corner they are far more worried about growth and perception and that should tell you where interest rates are going coupled with housing weakness.

So my bet is £ may wobble to 1.96 but ultimately it's going to make a decisive move up as soon as bond markets come to terms with their yields.

For now it might be best to hold off. I'll be out of FX and be playing with the indeces again.

Good trading everyone.

 

[jacinto]

plan-wise it will probably mean another "flat strategy" tomorrow

morning all,

flat strategy day for me. wont be around to trade the afternoon which is when i expect the move to start, just hope for the sake of all it is not a whip all over.

head still says south, but starting to think the weekly range wont be broken and we will end up with a small inside bar in that timframe....probably for the best , as next weeks breakout should be interesting

good trading all,

and good luck CB on that short,

j

edit: bit frustrating to be forced to have a day off.

 

[zuke]

I am having a crisis of confidence with my trading.

what would be a good net pip count per week/month? (obviously allowing for volatility)

I had set a target of something like 150-200 pips per week, but this is woefully optimistic. (cannot remember where I got those figures from)

my method of defining success is: divide number of pips gained per week with the high minus low of the week. (reason for this is to make allowances for good and bad weeks, by seeing my performance relative to what was available to be had.)

if I can gather at least 30% of the weekly range I am doing well. (bear in mind the market will go up and down many times during the week, its not a straight run)

however, I am being affected adversely by the number of failed trades. although I am not losing, mostly breaking even, I am concerned I am just treading water.

I am focussing almost exclusively on cable, and wonder whether spreading my trades would reduce the feelings of having to succeed if I scatter my risk across all 4 majors. but I am concerned about multiplying the commission pips as well.

Are my 150-200 per week realistic?

What do you do when you are going through a lean patch? (esp if you trade full-time)
(this is pretty scary, as if I dont get decent results, I may have go back to "real work" in Aug/Sep, when my funds run out. )

Hi Trendie

Cant add much to all of the good advice given here, only to say to hang on in there. We have ALL had crises of confidence which manifest as crises of our system. Imho, "targets" do not benefit a traders psyche. There is enough to concern ourselves with, without the added pressure of a (subjective) target. What is important is sticking to your plan, only trading good setups and not trying to second guess the market.

Best of luck

 

[zuke]

Hi all, Im short 1.9700. NIce n tight asian last night. hmm quiet before the storm. hope 1.9710/12 is the extent of any upside ......

Brave man! I am looking to fade you actually. Just looking for a decent long entry at the mo

 

[Offshore Trader]

Hi Trendie

Cant add much to all of the good advice given here, only to say to hang on in there. We have ALL had crises of confidence which manifest as crises of our system. Imho, "targets" do not benefit a traders psyche. There is enough to concern ourselves with, without the added pressure of a (subjective) target. What is important is sticking to your plan, only trading good setups and not trying to second guess the market.

Best of luck

IMO the above sums it up. The most important thing is having a system and sticking to it. Guessing or tinkering nearly always costs money. Cable has been really rangebound for months now, making it much more difficult to trade. In hindsight if you had bought every dip of say, 30 points and sold every uptick of a similar amount you would be quids in but hindsight is a wonderful thing. I think a lot of people having been treading water this year but if your system relies on volatility and you are treading water now, just think how much money you will make when it starts moving again!

 

[Crap Buddist]

Brave man! I am looking to fade you actually. Just looking for a decent long entry at the mo

cheers says get short on my setup, so I cant argue with it....... however that doesnt stop me thinking, bloody hell they whip this through 1.9710/12 might be some buying to test 1.9735 and if that goes, what about all those buy stops above 1.9750

I have to ignore such things. But looking at things 1.9710 -1.9680 whip zone. breaks?

 

[jacinto]

just thought that A Gnome must be having a nice lazy day with his euryen long.....

anyone caught the yen moves?

 

[oiltanker]

on one of their vids they mention 400 people are using their live service which at their sub rate mean they get 120k a month. why trade? perhaps the most interesting vids are the training ones at the bottom of their ytube page that deal with nfp etc.

using their ideas at the mo i have bearish on the swiss and so that would suggest bully on the cable but its small candles which means not much umph but might make sense as the dollar gets nervous before news? but still looks tricky.

i have a fun sell trade on the eur/gb just for the pain

 

[hornblower]

he mentions 200-EMA, 55-EMA, 21-EMA.
but also 8-SMA and 5-EMA which is what Bagovino appears to have cottoend onto, from his original 12EMA/5-EMA cross.

I am not trading today, just monitoring. need to get my head around what my approach is going to be. perhaps I should stop reading about other peoples rules and stick to my own.
may even take the plunge, as per fxwinner, and post real-time on a thread for 2 weeks to see how often I stick/break my rules, and the justifications I use.

good trading to you all, and hope you catch a bucket-load of pips for the weekend.

Hi trendie
don`t beat your self up with self doubt
its very difficalt to trade cable at the moment

I have started to trade the dax and the s & p (same system ) to make a few points
don`t lose the faith , just wait for better times
kind regards
hornblower

 

[smbtnt]

As we speak I have just committed a cardinal sin, playing a full stake reversal on USD/JPY at the round number

Stopped out for -30 on 6 lots and thats after coming out of a perfectly positioned long off 121.50, this is now becoming a cocky habit; calling reversals on major trends.

 

[a_gnome]

just thought that A Gnome must be having a nice lazy day with his euryen long.....

anyone caught the yen moves?

Hi Jacinto,
Regrettably I tightened the stop on my remaining position too much and got stopped out so I am not participating in this current move. It's doubling annoying because I am currently working on staying in moves for longer with a core position and trading around it so I should really still be in.

Still it's a learning process.

 

[jacinto]

Hi Jacinto,
Regrettably I tightened the stop on my remaining position too much and got stopped out so I am not participating in this current move. It's doubling annoying because I am currently working on staying in moves for longer with a core position and trading around it so I should really still be in.

Still it's a learning process.

hi A G
sorry to hear that, a good trade nonetheless.

i unfortunately kept the eye off it when i mismanaged my short at the beginning of the week and didnt want to see it again. a nice pair, definitely.

have a look at the indicator i posted for trendie, i like to use it to trail stops

lines are NRTR_ATR with different settings
blue - red dots are NRTR WTR .

have a look at the chart. for euryen

j

 

[a_gnome]

hi A G
sorry to hear that, a good trade nonetheless.

i unfortunately kept the eye off it when i mismanaged my short at the beginning of the week and didnt want to see it again. a nice pair, definitely.

have a look at the indicator i posted for trendie, i like to use it to trail stops

lines are NRTR_ATR with different settings
blue - red dots are NRTR WTR .

have a look at the chart. for euryen

j

Hi J
Thanks for the post. What do the various letters stand for? ATR I know but what are NRTR and WTR? I'm guessing that this is trailing N ATR's behind the high of the move but I am interested in the details.

 

[Offshore Trader]

The move up has changed my short to a long position. Just hope that cable is now going to get out of this range......I nice run up to end the week please

 

[jacinto]

Hi J
Thanks for the post. What do the various letters stand for? ATR I know but what are NRTR and WTR? I'm guessing that this is trailing N ATR's behind the high of the move but I am interested in the details.

no worries A G, will pm details.

good day

 

[Crap Buddist]

mm, well taken a loss -32 on the long, now have a short on at 1.9757.7, for a pullback to get long... hoping its coming back, and its not a one way freight train...

 

[Crap Buddist]

+ 22 now long 1.9735, although looking at it, notice we havent had a decent pullback on the longer timeframe. And I hope thats not coming around 1.9710

 

[Crap Buddist]

+ 35 ive pulled it at 1.9770, the suspense is killing me..... Im done for the day.

Dunno if were gonna get the prod to 1.98 . if I got in long lower and not hit on the short I'd probably be holding....

Looking at it on a 3 hourly that hasnt finished completing yet, looks like a rampant bull.. good luck longs..

 

[Atilla]

+ 35 ive pulled it at 1.9770, the suspense is killing me..... Im done for the day.

Dunno if were gonna get the prod to 1.98 . if I got in long lower and not hit on the short I'd probably be holding....

Looking at it on a 3 hourly that hasnt finished completing yet, looks like a rampant bull.. good luck longs..

Good work CB. You've earnt those. Been afraid of FX recently but I would concur the direction is up for me.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Good work CB. You've earnt those. Been afraid of FX recently but I would concur the direction is up for me.

Cheers Atilla, feels like ive worked for them too. Cables been very tight on its range recently looking forward to it stretching its legs soon.