FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit

[Purple Brain]

eur/aud - if the current bar (11:30 BST) fails to make a low below 4262 (the most recent low determined from the 11:00 bar) I'll close the trade.

 

[Purple Brain]

aud/cad -2 of initial risk of 19 means I lost only 10% of initial risk. While I have heard of death by a thousand cuts, on balance, I'd prefer to lose just 10% of my risk on a losing trade than 100%.

 

[Purple Brain]

eur/aud no lower low so pulled the trade for -7 on initial risk of 16. A 43% loss on initial risk. MAE 10. MFE 4. Dodo.

 

[scholfield]

last try on cable.
short 1.5969
stop at 1.5982

still in this. Came within 2 ticks of getting me! See what happens....

Also had another small winner on oil again.

 

[Liquid validity]

PB, don't know if this is of any interest or not, I'll post it anyway:

Free replay data for futures and FX - level 1 only - Jan 2013 to date:
http://marketreplaydata.com/

To use the data, you need Ninja trader free version:
http://www.ninjatrader.com/download-free.php

DL software from both links and setup as instructions.
If its of interest and you have any trouble getting it to work,
post back here.
It may be useful to speed up your screen time, replay data
can run at any speed from realtime up to 500x.
SIM account allows for slippage, comms and connection lag simulation
and includes spreads.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy potential short.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy short stop at 99.15.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy resting on weekly low, yesterday's low and the century level at 99.00. A move back below that level and those support levels turned into resistance would be useful.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy short 98.98 stop 99.15.

 

[Purple Brain]

PB, don't know if this is of any interest or not, I'll post it anyway:

Free replay data for futures and FX - level 1 only - Jan 2013 to date:
http://marketreplaydata.com/

To use the data, you need Ninja trader free version:
http://www.ninjatrader.com/download-free.php

DL software from both links and setup as instructions.
If its of interest and you have any trouble getting it to work,
post back here.
It may be useful to speed up your screen time, replay data
can run at any speed from realtime up to 500x.
SIM account allows for slippage, comms and connection lag simulation
and includes spreads.

I've got a long weekend coming up so that'll be a good time to have a play around with this. Thanks.

After all the comments I've read about the importance of tick data and momentum and the relative difficulty of getting tick data in any useful way onto my screens, I decided to lash one up for myself. No idea if it makes any sense, but I'm using today to see if it gives me any additional insights into price development. Based on my three trades so far today the answer could understandably be a "No", but it would be unfair to blame my tick-ind for that. I have countless other ways to screw up a perfectly good trade.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy - if the price finds resistance from the daily S1 at 98.96, I'll bring the stop down to 99.10.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy short stop down to 99.00. Change from intended 99.10 as the price has a couple of s/r levels to eat through to get to he century.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy - if the current bar doesn't make a lower low than the prior bar I'll exit.

 

[Purple Brain]

usd/jpy - saved me the trouble. Stopped out for -2 on an initial; risk of 17, taking just 12% of my original risk. 4 trades - 4 losers, but less than 50% of my standard risk per trade down on the day - so far.

 

[Purple Brain]

After 4 consecutive losers I suspect some would be stepping aside for the day - and that might be sensible. But I take a view that winning and losing streaks are more likely to be random than not and now would not be a good time to be out of the market if a valid setup provides an entry.

Of course, there's no way for me to make a profit in the long run random or not if my methods are faulty, but I don't see why after running this same basic method for some time now it should suddenly stop producing profitable results. I'll press on.

 

[Purple Brain]

The reason I was cooling on the usd/jpy trade anyway was that it made a higher low on the 11:30 BST bar and then a higher high on the 12:15, which is where a few bars after it came off that high I entered short.

The 13:30 bar, spiked on US data and effectively produced a new low which was just under a pip higher than that prior low at 11:30. If the bar I was on when stopped out had made a lower low than I would have been happy to stay with it - but it didn't.

 

[Splitlink]

I felt that the Euro/Jap pair had bottomed out and sensed a breakout on the 5 min chart. That was at 1440 and 132.042 level. It looks firmer now at 132.09 b has not broken out yet.

 

[Splitlink]

The break that I am looking for is 013 and then I'd like it to go above my avs.

 

[Purple Brain]

Gov. Poloz (BoC) talking up a cheaper Canadian Dollar. Wondered why I suddenly got hit with a bunch of CAD sell signals out of the blue. I typically see my setups - then the signals a bar or two later. No technical basis for taking these trades.

 

[Purple Brain]

Hi Splitlink, hope your trade setup develops and you bag a winner. You'll certainly have done better than me today.

Interesting. I switched to the 5 minute chart and it's a totally different world. Back home on my 15 minute chart I'm looking for this pair NOT to breach the prior high at 132.25. In fact, I'd be delighted for it to reach to about the 132.20 level and then turn down again setting me up for a short. Based on my performance so far today, you're perfectly safe in your assessment and potential trade setup. Good hunting.