FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit

usd/cad stop down to 305, just a spread's width above the current high of the day. Momentum of the last bar has not carried through and there is an obvious area of support at 293 that I don't have any technical basis for, but it's there. Today's open is just a twitch above current level ot 0295. If that doesn't provide resistance I'll bale out.
 
usd/cad if it does move down past current support there's nothing on my screen of any technical interest until we get down to yesterday's spike low of 0273.
 
gbp/jpy - not a trade setup call but there's a real tussle going on. As many up ticks as down ticks and few zero ticks.
 
barjon said:
For my part, it's a pleasure. However, don't take anything I or anyone else has said as gospel. Just use it to stimulate your own thinking as you plot your own route through the minefield.
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I, too, have got useful information from this thread. Barjon I know from way back but your dedication to watching various pairs is really admirable. Congratulations for the effort and I'll keep reading but I'm past putting so much effort into trading. Yen/Euro and Footsie are my main activities. If I get any blinding flashes I'll let you know!

Good luck with it.
 
Purple Brain said:
At 09:30 BST today there is the GBP data event of the BoE minutes - Votes for cut/hike/unchanged. Before last week's insights from Martinghoul on why sterling reacted as it did to an apparent non-event I would have assumed this wasn't a biggie. But with that exposition of the intricacies and nuances of what really moves the markets on baord, I'm interested to see how the market reacts to data that effectively is largely already known and presumably factored in.

I know the individual members of the MPC enjoy and are expected to show a high degree of latitude in their views on the tools and methods to use to shape and manage the economy, but I just don't see too many showing their hands against the new boss' directives. While 'unchanged' may not have been unanimous, I would be surprised if any more than 1 voted otherwise.

Perhaps that is what the market may react to - if there is any indication that Carney does not currently enjoy unanimous backing. Given that his forward guidance came at a time when the data suggested he could afford to be less dovish maybe there was greater dissent than anyone expected. It'll be interesting either way.
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So a unanimous vote for 'unchanged' which is what surely most inside and outside the business would have expected sends sterling soaring. I suppose if others like me thought there may have been perhaps th eodd one or two dissenters, to get a unanimous vote is probably the best news that could have come out so, I guess I get it. Still not totally convinced I've got a handle on these 'soft' news events.
 
Splitlink said:
I, too, have got useful information from this thread. Barjon I know from way back but your dedication to watching various pairs is really admirable. Congratulations for the effort and I'll keep reading but I'm past putting so much effort into trading. Yen/Euro and Footsie are my main activities. If I get any blinding flashes I'll let you know!

Good luck with it.
Click to expand...

Split

The only "pair" I watch is ftse/dow and then only hour by hour unless I'm in positions - unfortunately I can't use orders because it's the relationship between them that counts, not the individual directional movement. I've never traded forex - too fast and furious for me :LOL: - and my main bag is still a stable of UK equities.

It's your pragmatism about trading that provides the flashes that are always worth paying attention to. Us oldies are not entirely useless :)

Cheers

jon
 
Purple Brain said:
Thanks for posting your call. What was your basis for going short here? I can understand the stop being placed at the half-century and above the daily R1.
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I was looking for the morning high area from yesterday morning to act as resistance, and I was looking for shorts rather than long, based on my reading of the short term trend, which, rightly or wrongly, is currently down as of Monday evening.

In general you'll do quite well to fade my calls, lol.
There's been times when I thought I might have actually cracked the market with months of consistent profits, but it's a cruel game, and in hindsight, I think I just had a long, lucky patch! Every method seems to go through phases of working very well.

I'll post more trades, though. No shame!!
 
scholfield said:
I was looking for the morning high area from yesterday morning to act as resistance, and I was looking for shorts rather than long, based on my reading of the short term trend, which, rightly or wrongly, is currently down as of Monday evening.

In general you'll do quite well to fade my calls, lol.
There's been times when I thought I might have actually cracked the market with months of consistent profits, but it's a cruel game, and in hindsight, I think I just had a long, lucky patch! Every method seems to go through phases of working very well.

I'll post more trades, though. No shame!!
Click to expand...
What construct do you use for your 'morning high''? yesterday's daily high was at 5936, but I don't think you're referring to that.

I also have the occasional breakthrough of major, overwhelming and totally significant discovery which eat through my weekend as I ferociously research my grail of the week. I come into the Monday morning with an absolute certainty I can call entries and exits to the pip - only to be reminded that my delusions have cost me money.

Please post away scholfield. What shame is there in putting a line in the sand with a reason for doing so. I am increasingly convinced there is less right and wrong in trading than there is right place, right time, reasonable rationale, sensible risk and random luck. Is that a heresy?
 
a rare winner on oil a minute ago.
 

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