FX-2007: Jan 29th > Feb 2nd

[Phil Mibbutz]

Any particular theories why it's tumbled this morning?

 

[neil]

5 minute chart

Any particular theories why it's tumbled this morning?

Is trying to come back up?

 

[Offshore Trader]

I'm quite impressed by the fear I managed to put in the market by placing a limit order at 1.9510 :cheesy: As with so many of my levels recently, the market just failed to reach before turning away. Why does it always just reach the stop losses before doing the same

 

[jacinto]

I'm quite impressed by the fear I managed to put in the market by placing a limit order at 1.9510 :cheesy: As with so many of my levels recently, the market just failed to reach before turning away. Why does it always just reach the stop losses before doing the same

how do you estimate your targets?

 

[milt]

how do you estimate your targets?

1.9517 is a Fib target(1.786) from yesterday's high & low.

 

[jacinto]

1.9517 is a Fib target(1.786) from yesterday's high & low.

61% 9260-9910 at 9510. strong technical support.

 

[Offshore Trader]

how do you estimate your targets?

Well of course, that is the problem. It's probably not so much unlucky, as lack of skill.

Principally, I do aim at a set number of points but also look at where support/resistance is likely to be to tweak those. I guess I'm just going through a bad run at the moment and luck will turn.

The main problem has been that lately breakout methods haven't worked that well because we have seen few straight line moves in the UK timezone which don't reverse during the same day. Unfortunately today is showing signs of the same.

 

[Offshore Trader]

1.9517 is a Fib target(1.786) from yesterday's high & low.

I don't tend to look at Fib numbers. Perhaps I should........

 

[milt]

I don't tend to look at Fib numbers. Perhaps I should........

Well,of course they don't work every time but I find them sometimes useful for intraday reversal points in a non-news day.

 

[jacinto]

Well of course, that is the problem. It's probably not so much unlucky, as lack of skill.

Principally, I do aim at a set number of points but also look at where support/resistance is likely to be to tweak those. I guess I'm just going through a bad run at the moment and luck will turn.

The main problem has been that lately breakout methods haven't worked that well because we have seen few straight line moves in the UK timezone which don't reverse during the same day. Unfortunately today is showing signs of the same.

see what you mean. I wont reply regarding method, as that is up to each one of us. if you want to discuss it, we can PM instead.
i get similar problems at times. i have started to use a homemade solution to adjusting targets :cheesy: . Instead of going for targets to the pip, i take a "conservative" profit target, so to speak (i.e. 10 pips below or above the "full target"). has definitely improved accuracy, and lowered risk of not getting to target.

j

 

[dc2000]

Still targeting the upside DC?

position closed this moning 595 stop order staying out for today as I expect more down later today poss a 574 -477 move

 

[dc2000]

Why does it always just reach the stop losses before doing the same

Well of course, that is the problem. It's probably not so much unlucky, as lack of skill.

Principally, I do aim at a set number of points but also look at where support/resistance is likely to be to tweak those. I guess I'm just going through a bad run at the moment and luck will turn.

The main problem has been that lately breakout methods haven't worked that well because we have seen few straight line moves in the UK timezone which don't reverse during the same day. Unfortunately today is showing signs of the same.

the market reaches stop levels and turns often because so many people place there stops at the same level the most common method is as you describe look for supp/resist and tweak a little 10 pips or so thus when the market hits those levels there are a lot of orders and the price moves
The dynamic of the market has changed in recent weeks its still making the same moves but the time frame has altered and the move is happening overnight and early morning this will have a negative effect on early morning breakout strats

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

None of the numbers/methods seem to have worked for the past couple of days. It looked like a lot of orders had been put at around 600 this morning and that should have been a cue to sell once it broke through. Easy to be wise now, of course!

 

[Offshore Trader]

Patience is a virtue :cheesy: limit hit, profit taken on half at 87 with s/l on remainder at 525

 

[jacinto]

well done. good to hear that.

 

[a_gnome]

Afternoon all,
Fortunately VEBO Variant has had an ok run over the last few days. Nothing major but it's been putting away a few pips here and there. Was long overnight from 9620 odd and reversed short at 9645 which it is still holding.

Been out of the office this morning but have come back to a pleasant surprise! Still holding the 9645 short which is seriously on-side now. Let's hope for more downside.

 

[City Bound]

I can't believe it's doing this. After being +125 it's giving it all back half an hour before my close time. Fricking typical.

 

[dc2000]

Thats nice man thats very nice man

of course it still needs to give an exit 511

 

[a_gnome]

I can't believe it's doing this. After being +125 it's giving it all back half an hour before my close time. Fricking typical.

Amen! I hear you brother, and I too feel your (financial) pain. That was some reversal there - I'm about to go long now.

Quelque fois, le trading systematique c'est un grand bordel (with apologies to any genuine french speakers)

 

[Crap Buddist]

Hmm madness, ive closed my long for .08 pip gain from that long 1.9592, That euro looked tasty on a pull back to 1.2925, gagging for a long I thought, eyeballing the chart, looks like that slouch cable was adjusting to the eur/gbp strength or something. I dunno.

I need pill's for me nerves.

flat now waiting . For something.