Futures Biases

[jacson101]

Tick, Tick, tick...

word has it...coordinated rate cuts from Fed, BOE and ECB along with SNB BOC in an effort to prevent a world recession.

Well well FED's coordinated rate cuts had been dismissed by the rest...
Putting the ECB, BOE and the rest behind the curve...

Tick, tick, tick...
:smart:

 

[charliechan]

Well folks,

Paulson has let us down! Demand( consumer side)stimulus is the wrong way to go. Unreal to hear and see it come from a "golden slacks" alum. like Paulson.
The unfortunate reality is, what good is a consumer tax break if the consumer does have a job in the first place.
...Positioning for further damage...

Best,

unless the tax breaks are matched by increases elsewhere, then the gov will have:
a/ less money to spend in the economy
b/ have less collateral/assets against the boe/central bank loans leading to a tightening of the money supply (probably via interest rates)...

surely?

 

[jacson101]

unless the tax breaks are matched by increases elsewhere, then the gov will have:
a/ less money to spend in the economy
b/ have less collateral/assets against the boe/central bank loans leading to a tightening of the money supply (probably via interest rates)...

surely?

Hey!
Thanks for the reply, you point out good fundamentals...unfortunately in this case study we're talking the USA...:cheesy:

To address your...
a)less spending in the economy... can equate to a smaller gov't, which I'm all for and I rekon we will see if the republicans can hold office.
b)I'm not an expert on the BOE but, I'm fond of London... The bigger concern is with the ECB relationship. Take a look at the ECB balance sheet released to the public this past week...Their buying ( bank) subprime assets with gold(reserves)... diminishing assets on ECB balance sheets is a huge concern...ECB M3 ( Money supply) is has been clocked at a extremely high rate in and of itself.
The only way to take down a bank faster would be to hire another Evil Knieval like the one Societe Generale...

But, these are just my views after a long day in front of the screens...
I do appreciate your post and keep them coming...

Best Regards,

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

the USD has been sneaking back down the last couple weeks.. looks like we are at a high likelyhood breakdown on multiple currency pairs (some of which has already happened such as on usd/cad) i would not be surprised if we hit the 1.5 mark on the eur/usd in the next couple days. If this happens it will get everyone talking about the state of the usd again.

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

I decided to closed my position on the usd/cny while I was still ahead. The CNY is expensive to hold it costs 8% (alto it is still profitable at its current rate of decent). Something about the chart tells me its about to get a pop, and if it does ill probably short some more. I have also closed my position on the usd/sar as it does not seem to be doing anything.

 

[Xymox]

follow your gut...

 

[jacson101]

follow your gut...

:clap:

Closed some of my shorts...jpy very interesting situation...the vol. rally in jpy is insulating samuarai's from inflation...
At this point I'm looking for either...
Either a) fed keeping hush about inflation and gets coordinated intervention message out.
b) fed keeping hush about inflation... continuation...
c) fed confirms inflation worries leading to a bottoming.

Interesting times.

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

I think the fact that many currency pairs are simultaneously reaching parity or conversion points of macroscopic importance will be important because of the fact that these points are where the average joe will hear about the state of the dollar on the evening news. This will change the general perception of the dollar in the eyes of the masses.

Unfortuantely I dont know enough to say whether this would mean a bottom (because of more people taking advantage of better exchange rate for buying in the US) or if it would cause an accelleration by people changing their savings into other currencies or companies trying to hedge their losses on the declining value of the dollar.

The result will be whatever the sum is of those two behaviors.

 

[jacson101]

Central bank bought more dollars Friday - Haaretz - Israel News

Intervention #1...

 

[jacson101]

Intervention #2
A one two punch, Early japanese session...
1.Bear Stearns bought out for $2...
2.Discount window cut to 3.25

...

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

Intervention #2
A one two punch, Early japanese session...
1.Bear Stearns bought out for $2...
2.Discount window cut to 3.25

...

Financial markets are the awesomest drama ... some people watch desperate housewives some people watch seinfeld... I watch the fall of giants... and make money off it!

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

thats alot of open buy orders

 

[jacson101]

thats alot of open buy orders

There's a fine line between open orders and and filled orders...
The speed of the price action coincides with buyers on the hop with no time to put orders in the hole, as if they were unwinding a big trade of some sort ( commodities.)
The USD/CAD has not necessarily been at the epicenter of this credit standstill, macro trend as much as the crosses.
Fundamentally and technically look for cleaner price action in cross currencies, that is to say the countries currently behind the curve or the macro trend or both.

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

lots of nice looking patterns that could turn into continuation in the next few days

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

cad/jpy
eur/gpb
gpb/jpy
usd/jpy

Maby I am wrong but the charts look to me like they are SCREAMING opportunity (maby i am finally getting it). I have a larger position on than normal as I am expecting some action in the next couple days.

Lets hope the aphorism "what seems obvious is obviously wrong" does not apply here.

Would not be surprised if we see a big move that catalyzes currency intervention.

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

cad/jpy
eur/gpb
gpb/jpy
usd/jpy

Maby I am wrong but the charts look to me like they are SCREAMING opportunity (maby i am finally getting it). I have a larger position on than normal as I am expecting some action in the next couple days.

Lets hope the aphorism "what seems obvious is obviously wrong" does not apply here.

Would not be surprised if we see a big move that catalyzes currency intervention.

The move I was looking for seems less likely now.. took some of my profits on eur/gpb. Odds are higher that we see a pullback before moving further.

 

[jacson101]

The move I was looking for seems less likely now.. took some of my profits on eur/gpb. Odds are higher that we see a pullback before moving further.

A little primer... watch interest rates very closely at this point...
As you may have deducted,all your continuation patterns need at this point is for someone/something to become "unglued ".

We should get a good glimpse of things to come within a few weeks maybe a month, tops.
Some macro events and timelines...chinese olympics, equity earnings, inflation, etc, etc, etc.

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

Unfortunately I lost a bit the last week on the pullback (over $20) being heavily long yen but I think now looks like a good time to start looking for continuation. I expect it to be alot slower now probably over the course of a couple weeks at least. Eur/gpb has already started to move the past couple days and I was lucky/smart enough (unfortunately the market will not tell me which) to have loaded up right before and picked up under 100 pips.

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

ALOT of news comming out tomorrow and right now the currency markets seem to be creeping toward breakout points.. coincidence?

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

I started my own website finally. Im planning on putting some content as basically a resume for when i apply to university.

I did an analysis of the post frequency for the ES Journal in general and for specific keywords ploted against the SPY ETF aswell as post frequency for a few people that post there alot including you spectre you can view it here

do not remember this address