The S&P has posted four consecutive gains for the first time since January and is now about 65 points off last week’s low. The tide turns quickly. Yes there have been lots of ups and downs this year, but the character of the movement is that reversals happen quickly and suddenly and if you wait for all your signals to line up, you miss it. In fact by the time all your signals line up, it’s too late, the market is already at the other extreme.
Janet Yellen speaks today before Congress. She’ll deliver prepared remarks and then field questions. Be aware. Given how sensitive the market is to news headlines, it’s entirely possible we get some abnormal movement.
Over the weekend and then again in the video I sent out Monday I stated the path of least resistance was up and my bias was to the upside. I highlighted several indicators that were supportive of a rally – at least in the near term – and also laid out criteria that would support a continuation of the rally. For example, the 10-day of the AD line needed to break out of its down-sloping channel, take out its two previous highs and print a relatively high number. So far, so good. The AD line has done very well, and if it continues, the stage will be set for the market to not only rally to a new high, but to build on it.
from Jason Levitt