fairly straightforward today and I got two bites of the cherry.
the first was after hitting previous resistance around 4410 (after fairly obvious corrective action)
which called for a bit of patience to let it develop,
and the second was the failure to recover the gain line at 3pm
after it had filled the gaps it had previously left on the way down.
(The gain line is nearly always an interesting area to watch.)
Had to be quick for that one as the sb's were in no mood to be generous.
Trend appears to be down although being oversold again, it may be time to switch - have to see tomorrow.
Clues for tomorrow ?
A higher low on my macd could be interesting.
but if we can't break above 4410, we will have 8 daily lower highs on the run !
the first was after hitting previous resistance around 4410 (after fairly obvious corrective action)
which called for a bit of patience to let it develop,
and the second was the failure to recover the gain line at 3pm
after it had filled the gaps it had previously left on the way down.
(The gain line is nearly always an interesting area to watch.)
Had to be quick for that one as the sb's were in no mood to be generous.
Trend appears to be down although being oversold again, it may be time to switch - have to see tomorrow.
Clues for tomorrow ?
A higher low on my macd could be interesting.
but if we can't break above 4410, we will have 8 daily lower highs on the run !
Random ?
I was reading a book recently on genetics. A bit heavy for this time of the day but quite relevant I think.
What is free will ?.
Unless our behaviour is random then it is determined. If it is determined then it is not free. And yet we feel, and demonstrably are , free.
Stress response consists of genes at the whim of the social environment, not vice versa. If genes cam affect behaviour and behaviour can affect genes, then the causality is circular. And in a system of circular feedbacks, hugely unpredictable results can follow from simple deterministic processes. This kind of notion goes under the name of chaos theory.
Chaotic systems as defined by mathematicians, are determined, not random. But the theory holds that even if you know all the determining factors in a system, you may not be able to predict the course it will take, because of the way differences can interact with each other.
Even simple determined systems can behave chaotically. They do so partly because of reflexivity, whereby one action affects the starting conditions of the next action, so small effects become larger causes.
The trajectory of the stockmarket index, the future of the weather and the fractal geometry of the coastline are all chaotic systems; in each case, the broad outline or course of events is predictable, but the precise details are not. We know it will be colder in winter than summer but we cannot tell whether it will snow on Christmas day.
Human behaviour shares these characteristics. Stress can alter the expression of genes, which can affect the response to stress and so on.
Human behaviour is therefore unpredictable in the short term but broadly predictable in the long term. Thus at any instant, I am free not to eat. But over the course of the day it is almost a certainty that I will eat.
The timing of my meal depends on many things. My hunger (partly driven by my genes),the weather (chaotically determined), or somebody else's decision to ask me out for lunch (he being a deterministic being over whom I have no control).
The interaction of genetic and external influences makes my behaviour unpredictable.
------------------------------------------------------------
Now think of the stockmarket which is the expression of the actions of a million people. Who thinks they can forecast where the stockmarket will close at the end of of the hour/day/week ?
It beggars belief.
I was reading a book recently on genetics. A bit heavy for this time of the day but quite relevant I think.
What is free will ?.
Unless our behaviour is random then it is determined. If it is determined then it is not free. And yet we feel, and demonstrably are , free.
Stress response consists of genes at the whim of the social environment, not vice versa. If genes cam affect behaviour and behaviour can affect genes, then the causality is circular. And in a system of circular feedbacks, hugely unpredictable results can follow from simple deterministic processes. This kind of notion goes under the name of chaos theory.
Chaotic systems as defined by mathematicians, are determined, not random. But the theory holds that even if you know all the determining factors in a system, you may not be able to predict the course it will take, because of the way differences can interact with each other.
Even simple determined systems can behave chaotically. They do so partly because of reflexivity, whereby one action affects the starting conditions of the next action, so small effects become larger causes.
The trajectory of the stockmarket index, the future of the weather and the fractal geometry of the coastline are all chaotic systems; in each case, the broad outline or course of events is predictable, but the precise details are not. We know it will be colder in winter than summer but we cannot tell whether it will snow on Christmas day.
Human behaviour shares these characteristics. Stress can alter the expression of genes, which can affect the response to stress and so on.
Human behaviour is therefore unpredictable in the short term but broadly predictable in the long term. Thus at any instant, I am free not to eat. But over the course of the day it is almost a certainty that I will eat.
The timing of my meal depends on many things. My hunger (partly driven by my genes),the weather (chaotically determined), or somebody else's decision to ask me out for lunch (he being a deterministic being over whom I have no control).
The interaction of genetic and external influences makes my behaviour unpredictable.
------------------------------------------------------------
Now think of the stockmarket which is the expression of the actions of a million people. Who thinks they can forecast where the stockmarket will close at the end of of the hour/day/week ?
It beggars belief.
hungrybear
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FTse has been playing below it's lower bollinger band for a few days now. The BB is now pointing sharply down so provides little resistence. I'm still expecting a bounce any day, but am concerned about yesterday's spike, which if it does get filled, suggests a drop to about 4300 on the cash.