FTSE 100 February

[bonsai]

some random thoughts

3 is often a fib extension of 1.
1.62 or 2.62 is popular or 4.25

3 may not have finished yet but as 2 was fairly deep , 4 may be quite shallow. (alternation)

5 is sometimes the same amplitude as 1.

 

[Hooya]

noted

 

[Hooya]

been a bizarre day

 

[bonsai]

well I shall not waste time with the guys on advfn again in a hurry.

didn't get a tradeable signal all day after the open.
so one to forget and move on.

 

[Hooya]

got sucked into one but knew it was risky. Dow finally closed a gap so might get some movement over there today tomorrow.

FBB ADVFn is shocking. TT has some nice people on it but just seem to post entry/exit. Only this thread on T2W interests me. So I am still a PBB ADVFN user at heart.

 

[mully]

Third attempt to break through 1159 by SP500 failed causing very late sell off. That should be enough fodder short term for the FTSE bears amongst us

 

[barjon]

just back and tuned in expecting to read about champagne
corks popping - maybe tomorrow.

A question for you EW afficionados. I can understand (just) how
EW relates to the normal ebb and flow of supply and demand, but
how does it cope with moves caused by market "shocks" like the
2 this week (vod and rbs). Don't such shocks throw it into some
disarray?

 

[bonsai]

it is quite uncommon for news to change the existing trend.

it sometimes seems to exaggerate it by causing an extension of the wave count.

maybe this is because of insider information, maybe not.

but as the elliott process is one of fitting the count to the market, it is also guilty of 'curve fitting'.

nevertheless both vod and rbs were already in uptrends.

 

[barjon]

mmm, but ftse wasn't?

 

[bonsai]

wasn't what ? In an uptrend ?
I think it was.

we / I was trying to trade the C wave.

remember we had break of first fib fan line of 62%
and this morning we had bounce off the final fib line of 38%

chart shows this mornings bounce.

 

[barjon]

sorry - I thought your were all talking about the latest rise
(before today) as part of an a,b c correction (knew I shouldn't have touched on EW - Just ignore me!!!)

 

[bonsai]

yes, you are right. I am trading it as an abc correction but the trading trend is up until we complete the 'C'

 

[bonsai]

small drop at the open but a/d down -70 !!

 

[Hooya]

morning all. Lee brought to the top the FTSE thread from Nov 2002. How cringing it was too. LOL. Everything has crossed dowon on my charts but the price doesnt seem to be moving very much yet.

 

[mully]

Despite US sell-off (still nervous of the apparent triple top in S&P500) rally in dollar helping heavyweight Oils and pharmaceuticals. Frustrating.

 

[bonsai]

frustrating ?
if you went long after last expiry, you will now have 100+pts
just over 1pt per day

but they have all come in the last 4 days !!


but patience they say is it's own reward.

4750 next ?

 

[Hooya]

4750.... getting a bit ahead of ourselves no??? we havent made a new high yet?

 

[bonsai]

well, I posted this in my journal on 10th Jan.

no reason yet to change my mind.

<img src="http://web.onetel.net.uk/~gawgaw/bingo.gif">

 

[barjon]

4750?..........but not today I hope, or I'd better not go to golf!!!!!

 

[mully]

My comment refers to the next few days. Of course the SP500 has to take out 1143 to confirm the failure to make a new high, but yesterday's failure to make a new high is potentially worrying.
Anyway I will show the SP500 chart to highlight the "triple top " formation for everyone's info.