free seminar...london / sat 29 jan 2011
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bbmac
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Today's Lo gbpusd at 146% of 20day average pip range
It was long after my own trading session had finished today but interesting to see that after the steep drop from 6185 (2nd pic in post #218 above) from the prevbious 1hr/4hr swing hi zone...demand was found at the previous 1hr/4hr swing loi zone and a strong pullback resulted. the drop from 6185 to today's current Lo (5986) price was at 146% of the 20day average pip range, and as price becomes more deviated from such an average a pullback becomes more likely.
G/L
It was long after my own trading session had finished today but interesting to see that after the steep drop from 6185 (2nd pic in post #218 above) from the prevbious 1hr/4hr swing hi zone...demand was found at the previous 1hr/4hr swing loi zone and a strong pullback resulted. the drop from 6185 to today's current Lo (5986) price was at 146% of the 20day average pip range, and as price becomes more deviated from such an average a pullback becomes more likely.
G/L
bbmac
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Good eg potential SBR
Nice example gbpusd this morning where a previous 1hr swing lo zone (previous support=potential resistance [sbr] ) that co-existed with a previous 4hr swing hi/lo zone (ie previous resistance that had become support and now was potential sbr) acted to halt the upward movement of price.
The 1hr pic showing this is below. There was a good 5min bearish divergence based trigger for the earliest entry, and subsequently 15min and 30min both closed with inverted hammers. Price in this pairing is trapped between that and the 100sma on 1hr, @ only 26% of it's 20 day average pip range so far.
G/L
Nice example gbpusd this morning where a previous 1hr swing lo zone (previous support=potential resistance [sbr] ) that co-existed with a previous 4hr swing hi/lo zone (ie previous resistance that had become support and now was potential sbr) acted to halt the upward movement of price.
The 1hr pic showing this is below. There was a good 5min bearish divergence based trigger for the earliest entry, and subsequently 15min and 30min both closed with inverted hammers. Price in this pairing is trapped between that and the 100sma on 1hr, @ only 26% of it's 20 day average pip range so far.
G/L
bbmac
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sell 1st H/L after a b/o
Re post title: Now there's a repeating patterern so much so it has become a trading maxim...example of this in gbpusd this morning, and following on from post above, price breaks to the downside and pulls back off 100sma - 1hr to the previous swing lo zone on 5min/1hr where it finds supply..and a 1min hidden divergence based set-up develops to get involved.
Wasn't much of a 5min downtrend though, a HH followed by a LL and a potential LH but price did break down to a new LL (6073 as I type this)
Uber hawk Boe/Mpc member sentance is speaking soon, might affect this pairing.
G/L
Re post title: Now there's a repeating patterern so much so it has become a trading maxim...example of this in gbpusd this morning, and following on from post above, price breaks to the downside and pulls back off 100sma - 1hr to the previous swing lo zone on 5min/1hr where it finds supply..and a 1min hidden divergence based set-up develops to get involved.
Wasn't much of a 5min downtrend though, a HH followed by a LL and a potential LH but price did break down to a new LL (6073 as I type this)
Uber hawk Boe/Mpc member sentance is speaking soon, might affect this pairing.
G/L
bbmac
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5min bull thrust b/o with Sentance in the driving seat
Like Mpc member posen's Uber dovishness, a while ago caused a sharp fall in £, Sentance's uber hawkishness causes a sharp rise from current daily lo 6073.
The 5min bull; thust b/o was therefore higher in probability of a successful outcome as Sentance was likely to be hawkish in his speech.
G/L
Like Mpc member posen's Uber dovishness, a while ago caused a sharp fall in £, Sentance's uber hawkishness causes a sharp rise from current daily lo 6073.
The 5min bull; thust b/o was therefore higher in probability of a successful outcome as Sentance was likely to be hawkish in his speech.
G/L
bbmac
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Niaivity
A few over at the cable thread on ff.com moaning about the sudden and 'unexpected' move up going against their shorts ( a couple even entering shorts a couple of minutes before the event risk discussed above. !) A case of not being engaged with the market re upcoming event risks and their likely greater probability effects. A trader has to remain engaged and fully appraised to keeps the chances of success and most importantly consistent success in his/her favour.
G/L
A few over at the cable thread on ff.com moaning about the sudden and 'unexpected' move up going against their shorts ( a couple even entering shorts a couple of minutes before the event risk discussed above. !) A case of not being engaged with the market re upcoming event risks and their likely greater probability effects. A trader has to remain engaged and fully appraised to keeps the chances of success and most importantly consistent success in his/her favour.
G/L
bbmac
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Good eg's
Gbpusd this morning provided a couple of good examples of hi-prob trading opps. First a false downside break of the overnight congestion off yesterday's Hi found support at the previous 1hr swing lo zone shown below.
Then a swift move up from it sees a 15min bull PB followed by a thrust b/o candle of it's recent LH and HH to provide an upside trigger;
...price reaching 6218 before a pullback....the bearish divergence on 1min suported by extreme osc readings on 5min indicating such may be the greater probability at that time.
The 1min hidden divergence re-entry to 5min (+) uptrend that developed on 1min after the pullback was not supported by pre-identified potential rbs other than the 23.6% fib of the 6113- said 6218 move...and was therefore rejected
All this and Uk Retail Sales data to come...could there be some downside knee-jerk pressure on £ if the numbers don't rebound from the last 0.8% drop blamed on the December snow in UK ?
G/L
Gbpusd this morning provided a couple of good examples of hi-prob trading opps. First a false downside break of the overnight congestion off yesterday's Hi found support at the previous 1hr swing lo zone shown below.
Then a swift move up from it sees a 15min bull PB followed by a thrust b/o candle of it's recent LH and HH to provide an upside trigger;
...price reaching 6218 before a pullback....the bearish divergence on 1min suported by extreme osc readings on 5min indicating such may be the greater probability at that time.
The 1min hidden divergence re-entry to 5min (+) uptrend that developed on 1min after the pullback was not supported by pre-identified potential rbs other than the 23.6% fib of the 6113- said 6218 move...and was therefore rejected
All this and Uk Retail Sales data to come...could there be some downside knee-jerk pressure on £ if the numbers don't rebound from the last 0.8% drop blamed on the December snow in UK ?
G/L
bbmac
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more eg's
The pullback from that pre-data 6218 hi was as mentioned in post above supported by extreme oscillator readings on 5min and a reversal candle went on to close outside it's 20bol (white) on that 5min t/f, and then similarly on 15min and 30min whole reversal candles closed outside their 20bols too with patterns of regular sequential bearish divergence supporting on those t/f's. 5min is shown below...it was the 5min and 15min candles closing outside their 20bols that also put me off the 0822am 1min hidden divergence Re--entry to 5min uptrend after the pullback set-up also discussed in the posts above.
Funny how the charts know before we do again:
0930 saw a 5min Re-entry to 30min uptrend after the pullback set-up at the previous 1hr/4hr swing hi zone (prev res=potential supp] just as the Uk retail sale data breaks...
The potential rbs is here
Uk retail sales are revised down to -1.4% for last mth (from -0.8%) but a huge +1.9% this month against forecasts of +0.6%, some £ strength on the knee-jerk reaction although it has hit some supply in the 4hr/daily previous swing hi zone leading up to that recent 6277 Hi.
The pullback from that pre-data 6218 hi was as mentioned in post above supported by extreme oscillator readings on 5min and a reversal candle went on to close outside it's 20bol (white) on that 5min t/f, and then similarly on 15min and 30min whole reversal candles closed outside their 20bols too with patterns of regular sequential bearish divergence supporting on those t/f's. 5min is shown below...it was the 5min and 15min candles closing outside their 20bols that also put me off the 0822am 1min hidden divergence Re--entry to 5min uptrend after the pullback set-up also discussed in the posts above.
Funny how the charts know before we do again:
0930 saw a 5min Re-entry to 30min uptrend after the pullback set-up at the previous 1hr/4hr swing hi zone (prev res=potential supp] just as the Uk retail sale data breaks...
The potential rbs is here
Uk retail sales are revised down to -1.4% for last mth (from -0.8%) but a huge +1.9% this month against forecasts of +0.6%, some £ strength on the knee-jerk reaction although it has hit some supply in the 4hr/daily previous swing hi zone leading up to that recent 6277 Hi.
bbmac
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and finally......
Finally for today, and for my contributions to this thread (unless any questions arise,) 'sell the 1st hi' on the data react pattern repeated with another whole reversal candle closing outside 20bol (hanging man) on 1min with an osc extremes set-up supporting that, and that supported by bearish div on the 5min and other stuff on 15min. The closing of the data gap also added to the attractiveness of this set-up.
The 1min hanging man is here closing outisde it's 20bol (white)
and the supporting 5min bearish div is here:
G/L
Finally for today, and for my contributions to this thread (unless any questions arise,) 'sell the 1st hi' on the data react pattern repeated with another whole reversal candle closing outside 20bol (hanging man) on 1min with an osc extremes set-up supporting that, and that supported by bearish div on the 5min and other stuff on 15min. The closing of the data gap also added to the attractiveness of this set-up.
The 1min hanging man is here closing outisde it's 20bol (white)
and the supporting 5min bearish div is here:
G/L
bbmac
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addendum
BTW: IN case anyone thinks I am being inconsistent, the 5min Re-entry to 30min uptrend that occurred at 0930 just as the retail sales data broke set-up at a potential LL on 5min that co-existing as a HL on 3omin, and if you read the presentation doc and other stuff on this thread you will know that that for me is 'not optimum' to say the least..In any event I did not trade the set-up as the 5min candle trigger closed exactly at 0930am just as the data hit. This set-up is discussed in post #228 above....Would I have taken it without the data ? It's impossible to say as the result is known and colours any retrospective judgement...I did have my eve on that previous 1hr x 4 and 4hr swing hi zone as obvious potential rbs though.
G/L
BTW: IN case anyone thinks I am being inconsistent, the 5min Re-entry to 30min uptrend that occurred at 0930 just as the retail sales data broke set-up at a potential LL on 5min that co-existing as a HL on 3omin, and if you read the presentation doc and other stuff on this thread you will know that that for me is 'not optimum' to say the least..In any event I did not trade the set-up as the 5min candle trigger closed exactly at 0930am just as the data hit. This set-up is discussed in post #228 above....Would I have taken it without the data ? It's impossible to say as the result is known and colours any retrospective judgement...I did have my eve on that previous 1hr x 4 and 4hr swing hi zone as obvious potential rbs though.
G/L
MagicJohnson10
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love your work... you make it look so easy...
bbmac
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Thanks...I think it becomes easier when you have 'a plan.' Ie: I know in advance the areas where I am looking for one of the repeating 'full set-ups' and know what type of set-up/set-up combo I will be looking for at those areas if price tests/re-tests them...this is the essence of my Trading Edge.
Dr. Alexander Elder (Come into my trading room etc...) calls his set-ups 'Islands of order in an otherwise sea of chaos' and I tend to concur with the sentiment behind this...
It is the confluence of the simple repeating indicator patterns with simple repeating price patterns @ repeating hi-probability combinations of pre-identified potential supp/res factors, all validated by a price action / pa combo trigger that comprises the 'full set-ups' that make up the Trading Edge.
If my patience and discipline hold, and I stay engaged with the market as price dicovery takes place; i. by updating my potential supp/res factors on the relevant t/f's, ii. by knowing the opa conditions on the t/f's of interest, and iii. by knowing the event risks upcoming and most probable with/above/below forecast knee-jerk (+) market reaction to them, then I can trade with the highest degree of confidence that it is possible to have when the result is not known in advance.
Simple? well having a plan makes it simpler than it otherwise might be, (even though they sound terribly convoluted- Lol !)
G/L
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MagicJohnson10
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Hi bbmac
i have a question or 2?
how do you determine your trade exit point?
do you trail out with a stop or given the setup and conditions identify a target area for exit?
how do you react /manage the opposing conditions that appear once in a trade?
ie like an opposing rentry setup after a reversal.... experience, clinical rule or other...?
i have a question or 2?
how do you determine your trade exit point?
do you trail out with a stop or given the setup and conditions identify a target area for exit?
how do you react /manage the opposing conditions that appear once in a trade?
ie like an opposing rentry setup after a reversal.... experience, clinical rule or other...?
bbmac
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Hi
I will answer your questions in the order you raise them.
1. Trade targets/exits...I have been asked about this a few times;
Like the actual combinations of the repeating indicator set-ups -with- the actual repeating fractal geometric price patterns, @ the actual combinations of potential supp/res factors I trade at - all of which combine to make for the highest probability 'full' trading set-ups for market entry (if validated by price as the trigger for entry) and are essentially my Trading Edge, I have never published or discussed my exit methodology on an open forum anywhere. It is an essential part of my Trading Edge and therefore similarly remains proprietary, so unfortunately I cannot reveal it, particularly as in a sense it was the most hard won/discovered part of my Trading Edge. What I can do is give you some guidance that informed my exit methodology that you may find useful in formulating your own.
Think about the following;
a. Is market entry With or against next higher t/f (+) trend?
b. How many set-ups on t/f's above that t/f being used for entry are potentially supporting the entry? ...Do those set-ups go on to be validated by price?
c. What are the relevant fib and fib extensions of the last swing on the t/f higher than the entry.
d. markets tend to move between imbalances of demand/supply and supply/demand or potential supp/res factors historically proven to create such....from this we roughly guage a trade's potential before it might run into opposing buyers or sellers and then judge pa around that time as to whether it will break or bounce from such.
Hope this helps you to think about an exit methodology of your own.
2. If an opposing set-up develops whilst in a trade and before the trade target is met this does not neccessarily mean I will exit on that opposing set-up or indeed trade the oppsoing set-up. Like your example if I am in a a counter-trend trade and a Re-entry set-up develops, unless it does so meeting all the criteria I have laid down as part of my trading Edge for such a with trend entry I am more likely to try and hold the original reversal trade open. For example if I have entered on a 1min Reversal set-up that is supported by say a 5min 15min and 30min clear Reveral set-up and a 1min Re-entry set-up develops, I am more likely to hold the reversal trade particul;arly if the 5 then 15, and possibly min reversal set-ups have been validated by price on their own t/f's in their own right. In a sense of is a judgemnet of what trading opportunity has more confluence of tech factors going for it. In general my exits do not depend on another opposing set-up developing, but this does some time occur, more when the original trade entry is a re-entry and a reversal set-up occurs, than the other way around.
The rule in the situation of an opposing set-up developing is really whether the original trade target has been met and how much tech confluence (ie supporting set-ups on t/f's above it) indicate that it has a good chance of doing so -and- whether the opposing set-up meets the criteria of the trading edge, ie whether it has a better chance of wiping out any gains in my original entry. To this extent it is part rule/part judgement based on experience...sometimes I will be right but other times I might be wrong but with stop by then trailed in closer if only beacuse of the opposing set-up if not to b/e, little or no harm can be done by being wrong. Ie I have limited the damage if I am wrong in holding the original trade open.
An example occurred today which I discussed in a post above whereby I rejected a 1min re-entry set-up because by then 5min and 15min candles had closed and were outside the 20bol in regular sequential divergence set-ups supporting the original 1min entry...it also didn't have any decent potential rbs. (post # 227)
Hope this helps.
G/L
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bbmac
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eg re a question in post #233
let's say you had taken a Re-entry trade at point A on the 1hr screenshot below, price was in a classic uptrend making HH and HL's and price had again pulled back to a potential HL on this t/f...so you would be looking for a set-up howsoever you dfetermine it to get long again at potential rbs...so price tests the last but highest 1hr swing HH and there is also a 61.8% fib there...so the clear 1st target would be the previous swing hi zone around point B and thnen see how price reacts around it. (some may take some off and trail the rest, others may be all out, - depending on pa at the potential res zone...)
A simplistic example but you no doubt get what I am talking about re trade potential which also for me has the added factor for re-entries to a next t/f trend of price's prevailing relationship to it's ATR...so for smaller intraday t/f trading for me that would be the 20day ATR. At the Hi before the pullback in thius example price was only @ 79% of it's 20day atr which is preferable to price being at say 200% of the same atr.
(PS: I have no idea whether there was a set-up at point a, it's just an example to illustrate this point.)
G/L
let's say you had taken a Re-entry trade at point A on the 1hr screenshot below, price was in a classic uptrend making HH and HL's and price had again pulled back to a potential HL on this t/f...so you would be looking for a set-up howsoever you dfetermine it to get long again at potential rbs...so price tests the last but highest 1hr swing HH and there is also a 61.8% fib there...so the clear 1st target would be the previous swing hi zone around point B and thnen see how price reacts around it. (some may take some off and trail the rest, others may be all out, - depending on pa at the potential res zone...)
A simplistic example but you no doubt get what I am talking about re trade potential which also for me has the added factor for re-entries to a next t/f trend of price's prevailing relationship to it's ATR...so for smaller intraday t/f trading for me that would be the 20day ATR. At the Hi before the pullback in thius example price was only @ 79% of it's 20day atr which is preferable to price being at say 200% of the same atr.
(PS: I have no idea whether there was a set-up at point a, it's just an example to illustrate this point.)
G/L
MagicJohnson10
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thank you for the tips..
I would love to quiz you a whole lot more on it...
but completely understand your position on keeping something for yourself
:smart:
once again thank you...
I would love to quiz you a whole lot more on it...
but completely understand your position on keeping something for yourself
:smart:
once again thank you...
bbmac
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thank you for the tips..
I would love to quiz you a whole lot more on it...
but completely understand your position on keeping something for yourself
:smart:
once again thank you...
I'm happy to answer questions if I can. The technical components of my Trading Edge are published and discussed here and other threads., What is proprietary are the actual 'patterns' for market entry comprised of
1. repeating indicator patterns
2. repeating fractal geometric price action patterns
...and crucially the combinations of 1. and 2. above that make for the highest probability market entry set-ups when validated by ipa as trigger for entry, -at-
3. certain repeating potential supp/res factors cominations.
Proprietary too is thge exit/target methodology that is part of the Trading Edge.
This said, With the underlying principle of confluence it is not hard to spot patterns be they made of price, or indicators when price reacts in a certain way..and then to see whether and why these patterns repeat, and if/when they do and then succeed or fail, assessing what other factors seperated the 2 occurrences so that you know the highest probability circumstances in which to act on them.
Remember that such repeating patterns, howsoever derived are really only mathematical /graphical representations of repeating patterns of market behaviour and I urge anyone reading this to try and think beyond the pattern at what is happening in the collective mind of the market. Ie why do market participants buy and sell where they do...what causes a trend to develop/continue...etc...
Continued G/L
bbmac
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Congestion 2nd b/o
I didn't really know where to post this so here seems as good a place as any.
Just a great exmaple of the 'Congestion 2nd Breakout' technique on 5min gbpusd this morning.
5min sells off to a current daily lo at 6131 and forms a congestion channel on 5min between there and 6152 (19 pip channel)...Price breaks to the upside, aided by the good Uk PSNB data at 0930am gmt and then pullsback to around the middle of the channel / 76.4% of the move up from said 6131 where it bases again and breaks out for a 2nd time.
G/L
I didn't really know where to post this so here seems as good a place as any.
Just a great exmaple of the 'Congestion 2nd Breakout' technique on 5min gbpusd this morning.
5min sells off to a current daily lo at 6131 and forms a congestion channel on 5min between there and 6152 (19 pip channel)...Price breaks to the upside, aided by the good Uk PSNB data at 0930am gmt and then pullsback to around the middle of the channel / 76.4% of the move up from said 6131 where it bases again and breaks out for a 2nd time.
G/L
glyder
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I've been meaning to give some feedback on bbmac's seminar with the benefit of time and trial.
First - thanks again bbmac for taking the time to make the presentation, it was enjoyable to hear directly from someone who has mastered their trading method and lives by it.
I initially tested on demo, and once comfortable with the system I went live. Initially with success.
However over a longer period, I found I didn't have the concentration required to await for opportunities to arise. I got a bit trigger happy.
Partly this was because I was attempting the method during 'downtime' at work....that tends to make me see trades that aren't' actually there because I know I am limited on trading time.
It also might be that short term is not right for me...... I began to feel a tension whilst in trades, the seconds seemed like minutes, minutes seemed like hours - especially when they went against me!
Perhaps as I never took a week out to sit and give my full attention to the system I didn't give myself a fair crack of the whip at it. I think it would take that for me to give a fairer assessment of my compatibility, but circumstances haven't allowed it.
However, the experience I gained on watching lower TFs for a good few months really has paid off now I am back on dailies, . It seemed to give me a learning curve boost that would otherwise have taken a lot longer. Esp the OPA and confluence.
One effect has been the appreciation of the time and space that daily trading allows for someone in a fulltime job and a busy outside life daily is the best compromise. The tools I use are similar, overall trend and S&R, some moving averages for trend confirmation.
I may well come back to your system or something similar in future bbmac, when time permits, but for now daily trades lasting up to several days suit my lifestyle best.
Good trading
First - thanks again bbmac for taking the time to make the presentation, it was enjoyable to hear directly from someone who has mastered their trading method and lives by it.
I initially tested on demo, and once comfortable with the system I went live. Initially with success.
However over a longer period, I found I didn't have the concentration required to await for opportunities to arise. I got a bit trigger happy.
Partly this was because I was attempting the method during 'downtime' at work....that tends to make me see trades that aren't' actually there because I know I am limited on trading time.
It also might be that short term is not right for me...... I began to feel a tension whilst in trades, the seconds seemed like minutes, minutes seemed like hours - especially when they went against me!
Perhaps as I never took a week out to sit and give my full attention to the system I didn't give myself a fair crack of the whip at it. I think it would take that for me to give a fairer assessment of my compatibility, but circumstances haven't allowed it.
However, the experience I gained on watching lower TFs for a good few months really has paid off now I am back on dailies, . It seemed to give me a learning curve boost that would otherwise have taken a lot longer. Esp the OPA and confluence.
One effect has been the appreciation of the time and space that daily trading allows for someone in a fulltime job and a busy outside life daily is the best compromise. The tools I use are similar, overall trend and S&R, some moving averages for trend confirmation.
I may well come back to your system or something similar in future bbmac, when time permits, but for now daily trades lasting up to several days suit my lifestyle best.
Good trading
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bbmac
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Hi Glyder
Thanks for the feedback - glad you are making progress with your trading and have found a style and time frame (s) that suits you/your circumstances. - This is half the battle really.
I would point out that although I have published much here about the component parts of my trading edge - no-one has the 'full' trading edge.
I do agree with you that limited time and limited attention (due to work commitments) is not the ideal scenario to get to grips with any trading edge let alone one that requires attention on the shorter time frames. It is also very true that the patience and discipline to await the highest probability set-ups is required and this will not be helped by a time pressure such as you describe re work commitments. What probably also hindered you here is not knowing which set-ups (the confluence combinations) are the highest probability set-ups as this part of my trading edge has not been published, and not having the time available /experience to find out over a very large sample-due to your work commitments. PA on the shorter t/f's is indeed probably a microcosm of PA on longer t/f's so in a sense watching the 5min for a few months is probably like watching the daily for a few decades?
Continued G/L with your ongoing trading.
BBmac.
Thanks for the feedback - glad you are making progress with your trading and have found a style and time frame (s) that suits you/your circumstances. - This is half the battle really.
I would point out that although I have published much here about the component parts of my trading edge - no-one has the 'full' trading edge.
I do agree with you that limited time and limited attention (due to work commitments) is not the ideal scenario to get to grips with any trading edge let alone one that requires attention on the shorter time frames. It is also very true that the patience and discipline to await the highest probability set-ups is required and this will not be helped by a time pressure such as you describe re work commitments. What probably also hindered you here is not knowing which set-ups (the confluence combinations) are the highest probability set-ups as this part of my trading edge has not been published, and not having the time available /experience to find out over a very large sample-due to your work commitments. PA on the shorter t/f's is indeed probably a microcosm of PA on longer t/f's so in a sense watching the 5min for a few months is probably like watching the daily for a few decades?
Continued G/L with your ongoing trading.
BBmac.
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