podberry
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Thank you! But for those of using Alpari UK, how do we adjust the trading time FMT? May be Mark will be useful here, especially for newbie like me.😕
Tenapenny
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:-0 See post 7448.
Note: This reply is not personal to Podberry but for all of us who are using this system currently.
First to start, yes this system has been good for 2009 and 2010 and I am and will continue to use it for now. Now some food for thought, if you test this system in years 2007 and 2008 you will know that it is not even remotely close to this profitable.
I guess what I have to say here is that all systems stop working at a profitable level when the market condition changes. Yes it is easy to change a setting for 2007 looking back but lets say we get in to a similar situation, then there is no way to know when we are in the middle of things. Many people will abandon the ship with 23% drawdown with 3% risk (yes that was average drawdown with this system during those years) .
This is a good system for current market volatility there is no doubt about that.
There are 2 things all of us can look in to which will help from learning perspective and make us good traders.
1) What was so different in 2007 and 2008 markets?
One hint to get started: Look at the daily or weekly charts.... and compare to 2009 and 2010....
2) Was Mark using this system in 2007 and 2008? If yes why has mark not shown results of this system before 2009. It seems that he has been using this system for a long time reading the manual.
This is not in any way to challenge anybody. I have deep respect for Mark and this system. It is far better then 90% of things out there. This is just for reality check and for better understanding of market dynamics.
Many experienced traders who have seen different market cycles will tell you following:
"All systems need to adapt to changing market conditions."
Have a good weekend all....
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podberry
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Interesting observation sunny12, I am no expert on MT4 and especially back testing, so I will take your word for it.
One thing that does worry me though is that the Asian session is known as a quiet session - All Marks system does is identify the breakout in essence when traders enter the market. So moving from the quiet Asian to London opening will create either an uptrend or downtrend or sideways movement - So what you are saying is that in 2007 and 2008 the GBP/USD moved sideways generally at 06H30 indicating no direction. Hence the poor results ?😕
One thing that does worry me though is that the Asian session is known as a quiet session - All Marks system does is identify the breakout in essence when traders enter the market. So moving from the quiet Asian to London opening will create either an uptrend or downtrend or sideways movement - So what you are saying is that in 2007 and 2008 the GBP/USD moved sideways generally at 06H30 indicating no direction. Hence the poor results ?😕
stricky1967
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Thank you for your helpful constructive comments on this.
As the system relies heavily upon momentum preceding the London open and is therefore time critical.
May I ask if this backtest you did made allowances for Daylight Savings Times here in the UK?
beavis1122
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updating...
all using fmt are welcome to join the group and share your trades and comments with other users of fmt and tmt.
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podberry
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Good point stricky1967
Seems strange how the system can go from famine to feast from 2008 to 2009, albeit that was the credit crunch era, Is there anybody out there that can back test the last 5 maybe 10 years.(I have no idea how much effort that requires) Just for peace of mind, must admit I am concerned like others that will read the above posts as I bet some people will rely solely on this strategy as a source of income.
Moral of the story is don't give up your day job if sunny12 stats are correct.:-0
The MT4 Guru that can provide stats on this would be greatly appreciate by all I'm sure.
Tenapenny
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Precisely the point. There will be many newbies out there who haven't put the time in to learn to trade themselves and will think FMT will make them a living for a long, long time. At the moment, it is a fairly good trading system but at some point things will change.
FMT should be just one of the guns in your armoury. You wont win the war with it as your sole weapon.
I have been thinking the same, FMT is great whilst it works and currently is a great early morning play on momentum, I usually use other trending indicators along with support and resistence on daily charts as it's impossible to do anything else when I'm out at work, that's why at the moment I really like the FMT EA method. I suppose the key question is how do we know when conditions change to make FMT shaky - is it drawdown, wins verses losses, or some other market change that we can spot?? Could we put backtested results in to a spreadsheet with a moving average type indicator that fits and shows that FMT's success is changing and warrants a reset or a rethink? It would be interesting to know how Marc sees this situation as with him publishing all results, he more than anyone will be best placed to give us some advice/tweek; after all he has sold us the system, and we all seem to genuinly have a great deal of respect for his insight with FMT - thoughts anyone?
uberpips
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With my luck, the system will stop working this Monday morning when I start trading with my live account! 🙄
Tenapenny
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uberpips
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What if some optimization tests were run every month to see if the current setting were still the best? If the tests start to divert away from the current setting, then we would have an advanced warning that condition are changing and the system will need to adapt.
Thanks for this Podberry, very useful for my university funding plan I spoke about on earlier trade! 😉 and accepting the thoughts of Sunny12 and Tenapenny on later posts about FMT longevity - even at 5%/month profit invested, my £1000 would grow to over £300k in 10years!! - I think I like Tenapenny's idea of pocketing the fund and cableing him money from somewhere warm and sunny to keep his head above water! 😆
😆 That would be like watching a dog chase it's tail. I use to try to change the rules frequently for any system I thought was good and became that dog chasing it's tail, got nowhere but dizzy and a broke bank account. 😆
I hope people don't forget, this is a long-term style of trading. Let's try for doubling our accounts every year. That's a good start. All the ups and downs between Jan and Dec, forget about it, let's just have a nice doubled account at the end of the year.
I'm just playing of course, but in all seriousness, let's not over analyze something as simple as this. I have a friend who gets way too emotional and analyzing every single move of the market and, oooh, it must be the volcano in Zimbabwe that will make the GBP go up today and we shouldn't get in cause FMT says to make a sell. 😢😱
I tell him to relax, shut off the computer screen for a month and come back to see your profits. 😆
uberpips
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I'm a MT4 newbie but there must be someone on this thread with the skills and data to backtest 10 years. Or has someone already done it? I am very curious.
podberry
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No problem Remraf, I found the spreadsheet useful to work out drawdown as well. Put a minus sign in the (% return column) eg -2%. Shows you how many trades need to go against you before you hit the panic button. Tenapenny is spot on.:smart:
wiseambitions
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I think if you trawled about 200 pages back you'd find that we'd had this discussion in enough depth to pass a PhD thesis already!
And yes there are folks who have backtested the system 10 years and noticed a few sticky periods.
2007 and 8 were certainly profitable all the same, but less so than 2009 and 2010. Credit crunch and international mayhem would have definitely been important factors
There has nevertheless been something magic about identifying the trend at the FMT start times. Before finding FMT I was buying signals which are given out at 05.30 and which are usually in the same direction, and the company providing them had been doing same for about 10 years already, so this confirms my theory......
podberry
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Well that's comforting wiseambitions- Thanks. It least 2007/08 were profitable... So the way I see it is after the Asian session a breakout is inevitable (price has to move) as traders enter the market no matter what. At least we are geared to pick up the direction more often than not - Not being funny, but sometimes following all the posts in this thread can have a negative impact as you never no what to believe, at least you are one we can trust👍
