ForexMorningTrade System

[wiseambitions]

i'm out, got 30TP
good luck to you all

remember what I said yesterday that I have a theory there's a better chance of winning in short trades!

 

[deserteagle]

Closed at +43, 2 wins this week. no losses.

 

[JOHNCO]

went short with MM. Hit TP with 15 pips. Staying conservative. less stress.

 

[Tenapenny]

Closed at +43, 2 wins this week. no losses.

 

[Euro_d]

I don't see why you would think this a short term break-out strategy. Highs, lows, and/or trends lines do not have anything to do with the system.
Sorry to be blunt, but if you think that this is a break-out strategy, please limit your trading to a demo account until you have a better understanding of the markets.

No offense taken, replies are always appreciated. Not that I am agreeing with you but that is all part of a healthy debate.
I agree that one needs to have an understanding of the fx markets to make money but surely the point of robots is that the clever people who do have a better understanding the markets create commercial EA's for those that do not?

Hence my invitation to the creater of the EA to comment on the current, hopefully short term glitches.
Today was a welcome win.

Regards

 

[wiseambitions]

It's the first time I've tried an attachment, but here's a pretty picture

The effect of starting with 10,000 January 2010, compounding winnings, and trading with a 5% risk per trade, at 28TP 40SL @ 06.30 starts, without breakevens.

In spite of recent losing days it doesn't look like the system is very broken to me even though it might have been bruised!

 

[Adamus]

No offense taken, replies are always appreciated. Not that I am agreeing with you but that is all part of a healthy debate.
I agree that one needs to have an understanding of the fx markets to make money but surely the point of robots is that the clever people who do have a better understanding the markets create commercial EA's for those that do not?

Hence my invitation to the creater of the EA to comment on the current, hopefully short term glitches.
Today was a welcome win.

Regards

I disagree. Commercial EAs that really work are few in comparison with the amount of rubbish out there. Clever people who have a good understanding of the markets generally don't sell EAs. Why would they? They make more money trading the EA themselves, unless they have no money to trade (which would mean it's unlikely they are a good trader).

Why does Mark sell this system? He gives his reasons, and they are altruistic. How many people are like that? Not many.

The main point of EAs is that it automates the trading and allows the trader to scale up the number of markets traded.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, sell trade hit TP +20 pips (new settings, 40/20/15/0)
6:15 start, sell trade hit TP +26 pips (new settings, 50/25/20/5)
6:30 start, sell trade hit TP +31 pips (new settings, 50/30/20/5)

total profit today, +77 pips ..

nice way to end the week, good luck next week !..

 

[chrisheath]

i'm out, got 30TP
good luck to you all

remember what I said yesterday that I have a theory there's a better chance of winning in short trades!

I've noticed in backtesting, that the shorts do better than the longs, with a variety of ST TP BE scenarios. (So does mg550 - 'Long positions are basically a coin flip.')

Wise thinks it may be beneficial to find the optimum settings separately - and I agree.

Its easy to setup MT4 to do this. Metatrader Strategy Tester - Settings - Expert Properties - Testing . (Where you can set the Initial Deposit). There is also a Positions choice. You can choose to test LONG only and SHORT only separately. This does not need any changes to the FMT program. (Obviously then - best settings are found separately.)

Its also applicable to when you're running the live EA, so you can have 2 FMT's, one for Long only, and one for Short only. (Different names or charts.)

In my experience of backtesting 1-4 yrs (accepting that its by no means perfect!), drawdowns can be considerable with Longs, whereas shorts almost invariably give a smoother equity rise.

I look forward to your comments!

Regards, Chris

 

[deserteagle]

Weekly update. Difference is getting bigger....

 

[megamuel]

Typically, only the second trade I've missed since using this system and it was a winner, as was the first one! Would have been my first winner since the 20th. Damn!

 

[wiseambitions]

Weekly update. Difference is getting bigger....

I think a lot of us are fascinated with your findings, although we'd hate the 65SL, but hey if it works for you!.......

How far back have you trialled these settings?

 

[deserteagle]

I think a lot of us are fascinated with your findings, although we'd hate the 65SL, but hey if it works for you!.......

How far back have you trialled these settings?

Not too much, I november I have deeply backtested from January to October 2010, then I put the set in my live account.
Really I would prefer a small SL of course, but I try to put the emotions off in this bussiness, if the analysis says that is the proper set then I give it a chance.
If you see the statistics, the 65 SL was reached only 4 times in the 7 weeks I'm using FMT, it means the 50% of the times than the 40 SL (8 times). While it keeps in this ratio it's going in the right way.
In February I would like to include last months in my analysis and check if the parameters have to be adjusted.

Also, I'm so interested to check other time entries: 6:00, 7:00, also America and Asia.
I guess some of them should be profitable too.

 

[JustinSydney]

No offense taken, replies are always appreciated. Not that I am agreeing with you but that is all part of a healthy debate.
I agree that one needs to have an understanding of the fx markets to make money but surely the point of robots is that the clever people who do have a better understanding the markets create commercial EA's for those that do not?

Hence my invitation to the creater of the EA to comment on the current, hopefully short term glitches.
Today was a welcome win.

Regards

There seems to be a lot of talk on the forum of the system being flawed lately. We were all advised to stop trading from mid December to mid January by another member on the forum. I took that advise and somber have only had one loss in January. I started trading live in late October and I am running two live accounts. 1 high risk and one relatively low risk, both acconts are well into the positives with the low risk account from October returning 41% so far and the high risk account that I only started two weeks ago has returned about 35%. Just don't trade through Christmas and yoge got a killer system.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 01-27-2011



'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, Long/Break Even, 1.5911, 1.5865, 0.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 12 No Trades, 16 Break Evens, 17 Losses, 13 Profits, Total: -246.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, Long/Break Even, 1.59103, 1.59099, -0.4 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 5 No Trades, 6 Break Evens, 5 Loss, 2 Profits, Total: -142.4 pips



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 5:No Trade
PFG Best, 1.59093, 1.59093, 0.0
FOREX.com, 1.59105, 1.59105, 0.0
FXCM, 1.59099, 1.59099, 0,0
Alpari(US), 1.59097, 1.59097, 0.0
FXDD, 1.59110, 1.59110, 0.0



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:
FMT 4.2 EA, GU M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips,

6:15 start, buy trade, 1.59068, 1.59369, hit TP= +30.1 pips ...
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +12.8 pips

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 01-28-2011



'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, Sell/Profit, 1.5900, 1.5865, +35.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 12 No Trades, 16 Break Evens, 17 Losses, 14 Profits, Total: -211.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, Sell/Profit, 1.59003, 1.58643, +36.4 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 5 No Trades, 6 Break Evens, 5 Loss, 3 Profits, Total: -106.4 pips



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 5:Sell/Profit
PFG Best, 1.59006, 1.58656, +35.0
FOREX.com, 1.59005, 1.58649, +35.6
FXCM, 1.59005, 1.58660, +34.5
Alpari(US), 1.59009, 1.58659, +35.0
FXDD, 1.59004, 1.58653, +35.1



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:
FMT 4.2 EA, GU M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips,

6:15 start, sell trade, 1.58942, 1.58642, hit TP= +30.0 pips ...
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +42.8 pips

 

[wiseambitions]

Not too much, I november I have deeply backtested from January to October 2010, then I put the set in my live account.
Really I would prefer a small SL of course, but I try to put the emotions off in this bussiness, if the analysis says that is the proper set then I give it a chance.
If you see the statistics, the 65 SL was reached only 4 times in the 7 weeks I'm using FMT, it means the 50% of the times than the 40 SL (8 times). While it keeps in this ratio it's going in the right way.

Thanks, results are impressive.
I also checked what you'd have had in the 1st week of this month, and for me there would have been three starting orders which would have resulted in your settings giving one win, one loss and one break even, and making the month to date 6 wins 2 losses and 6 break evens, and plus 128 pips without slippage.

The week ending with Christmas day was expected to be terrible and we stayed away, but what would have been worrying had these settings been traded, would be 5 straight losses, (minus 325 pips). And there is no guarantee such experience will not be repeated without foreknowledge. It might be interesting to backtest the dates 31 Jan to 13 February 2008 because that was a bad patch for 40Tp/40sl incurring 6 consecutive losses
---------
07.30GMT
Quick check of that time frame 3 years ago, your settings might have reduced 6 SLs @ 40 to 3 SLs and 3 BEs but unfortunately no wins. 195 pips loss without slippage instead of 240

 

[deserteagle]

Thanks, results are impressive.
I also checked what you'd have had in the 1st week of this month, and for me there would have been three starting orders which would have resulted in your settings giving one win, one loss and one break even, and making the month to date 6 wins 2 losses and 6 break evens, and plus 128 pips without slippage.

The week ending with Christmas day was expected to be terrible and we stayed away, but what would have been worrying had these settings been traded, would be 5 straight losses, (minus 325 pips). And there is no guarantee such experience will not be repeated without foreknowledge. It might be interesting to backtest the dates 31 Jan to 13 February 2008 because that was a bad patch for 40Tp/40sl incurring 6 consecutive losses
---------
07.30GMT
Quick check of that time frame 3 years ago, your settings might have reduced 6 SLs @ 40 to 3 SLs and 3 BEs but unfortunately no wins. 195 pips loss without slippage instead of 240

Your information is very interesting, thanks for sharing it. It seems when having consecutive losses this set is not too worst than the standard one.
On the other hand, talking about TP, this set goes till 43 instead of 35, I suposse it is a plus to compensate the 65SL, look at these 7 weeks, all the times the price reached the 35TP, the 43TP was also reached, I mean in this time, everytime the standard set wins, my own set also wins.
Of course 7 weeks is a time too short to get a conclusion, but in the meanwhile I will comparing the results, and also sharing them on the forum.

Regards

 

[wiseambitions]

Your information is very interesting, thanks for sharing it. It seems when having consecutive losses this set is not too worst than the standard one.
On the other hand, talking about TP, this set goes till 43 instead of 35, I suposse it is a plus to compensate the 65SL, look at these 7 weeks, all the times the price reached the 35TP, the 43TP was also reached, I mean in this time, everytime the standard set wins, my own set also wins.
Of course 7 weeks is a time too short to get a conclusion, but in the meanwhile I will comparing the results, and also sharing them on the forum.

Regards

Thanks

It is not possible to find fault in your thinking, subject to similar trading conditions continuing. I am looking at all the potential FMT trades which I think 40TP/40SL has closed out early during 2010 with a view to seeing the extent to which your settings could improve the profit factor
It seems the original 40/40 settings haven't done too badly either just lately.
I think it quite likely there's actually a black spot in the middle somewhere in settings, between the extremes of cautious and adventurous, where the results don't come up as good as being one side or the other!

 

[deserteagle]

Thanks

It is not possible to find fault in your thinking, subject to similar trading conditions continuing. I am looking at all the potential FMT trades which I think 40TP/40SL has closed out early during 2010 with a view to seeing the extent to which your settings could improve the profit factor
It seems the original 40/40 settings haven't done too badly either just lately.
I think it quite likely there's actually a black spot in the middle somewhere in settings, between the extremes of cautious and adventurous, where the results don't come up as good as being one side or the other!

Nice point of view, I suppouse I'm among the adventurous
Really I'm consider myself too conservative, never risk more than 3% per trade. With FMT I risk 2,25% per trade, with a expected return of 6% montly.
Also I never adjust the trades manually, I guess it is because I just do automatic trading, it is good for statistics

Let see what happens next week.