ForexMorningTrade System

[wiseambitions]

currently i have reduced my TP target, to 30 minus 2 spread, ie 28 so I'm happy that i've just been closed out in profit, at 1.5408, so it's 2 wins and 1 loss for me this week.
best luck to all

 

[kgk]

currently i have reduced my TP target, to 30 minus 2 spread, ie 28 so I'm happy that i've just been closed out in profit, at 1.5408, so it's 2 wins and 1 loss for me this week.
best luck to all

just curious - with this new (reduced) TP, have you done some back testing to see consistent results over a period of time or do you see something in the markets that has prompted you to lower the TP (temporarily) ?

In other words, what has prompted you to move away from the recommended settings? I would be interested to learn your perspective. True this week you more PIPS than the rest of us who stuck to traditional settings - but will you still stick to 28 PIPS for the long haul?

Thanks.

 

[joke]

BE +2, FXDD again.

 

[wiseambitions]

just curious - with this new (reduced) TP, have you done some back testing to see consistent results over a period of time or do you see something in the markets that has prompted you to lower the TP (temporarily) ?

In other words, what has prompted you to move away from the recommended settings? I would be interested to learn your perspective. True this week you more PIPS than the rest of us who stuck to traditional settings - but will you still stick to 28 PIPS for the long haul?

Thanks.

It is a combination of two things:
1) That I don't use an EA therefore would have to manually reset to B/E if I followed the suggested FMT settings of 35TP and reset to BE @ 20
2) Backtesting for 6 months at an intermediate setting, half way between that 20 and that 35 ie say 28TP

It gives me an easier life and I have been surprised how many occasions either the market doesn't go in profit by the necessary 35 pips or else the observation (see my posts of yesterday morning) where I found that far from avoiding SL on every occasion, the resetting to BE seems to prevent TP being achieved too often. I find I get a higher per centage of winning trades at the moment by targeting a lower profit, even though I do give the market room to breathe by leaving SL at 40.

Please by no means is this a criticism of the recommended settings worked out by Mark Fric, my amendments have definitely been good for me in recent history but this might not be the case in the long run (say if we were using 2009 market data).

I will stick with this for the medium term, I don't like frequent adjustments, but I think I'm happy to increase my risk per trade and reduce the TP in pursuit of steady capital growth

 

[davidmccann]

Leave the stop alone I say. Let it ride.

 

[kgk]

very interesting.. thanks for taking the time to share.

kgk

 

[doepi3]

I missed TP 30 by one pip, but still in it. I trade manually and is on the road to work when the price reversed, so would not get a chance to move to BE in any case. I use SL 50, I'll let it run and take my chances... Fingers x'ed for those who are still in.

 

[trader578]

I have been reading these recent posts about the move to break even. Is it worth it in the long run? I agree that the data suggests that it isn't, but can we really just leave the screen without break even and walk away for a year to see how much the EA made for us? Or are we just human, and need to micromanage every trade even though it may work against us in the long run? Perhaps within FMT lies one of the first conundrums of man vs machine. Can we allow ourselves to become insignificant for the benefit of a greater annual return?

 

[jimmc]

Thanks for that doepi3. As you say, not a huge overall difference, but potentially quite a large increase in risk should market conditions change. It's difficult to know how far to take these things. After all, if you increased your stop to 1000, you'd probably win nearly every time - but the times you don't - disaster

Here are the results of the back testing I referred to:

TP 30, SL 50, no B/E:
Winners: 123 = 3690 pips
Losers: 30 = 1500 pips
Profit: 2190 pips

TP 30, SL 50, B/E 20:
Winners: 102 = 3060 pips
Losers: 21 = 1050 pips
Profit: 2010 pips

The difference is only 180 pips, but this shows that the B/E strategy does not add value in the long term...

 

[hammy66]

Back in the saddle today, trading LIVE with 4 different start times, TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips

6:00 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips.
6:15 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips.
6:30 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips.
6:45 start, sell trade, hit TP= 30 pips.

for today +45 pips ...

 

[tkbieber]

Thanks for that doepi3. As you say, not a huge overall difference, but potentially quite a large increase in risk should market conditions change. It's difficult to know how far to take these things. After all, if you increased your stop to 1000, you'd probably win nearly every time - but the times you don't - disaster

Taking a similar approach to this I opened two more providers at ZuluTrade. I don't take it as far as 1000 pip sl but I do go to 120 pip sl.
The names are:
Plane Rider and Bull Rider

The reason for the 120 pip sl is in back testing, I may find one bad trade in 6 months. It would only take about 2 weeks to regain the loss and from then be in profit for another 6 months. With Bull Rider I have also included EURUSD which also has proved to work well in the past. (of course still leveraging 3-5% so your account is always safe.)

 

[mudder1310]

Thanks to reaction to the jobs report, SL -40. Interesting the lower job number has a much bigger impact than the improved unemployment rate.

 

[stiltskin]

Back in the saddle today, trading LIVE with 4 different start times, TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips

6:00 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips.
6:15 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips.
6:30 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips.
6:45 start, sell trade, hit TP= 30 pips.

for today +45 pips ...

That username rings a bell, maybe I used to see you on hemscott board about 10 years ago.

Anyway I have been using the FMT system this week manually.
+35 Monday
-40 Tuesday
-40 Wednesday
Missed yesterday.
I decided to close for a 3 point loss this morning.

Hammy would you mind explaining your post above please?
You started trading at 6am? What indicated you should go short?

My signal arrived at 6:30 am.

 

[hammy66]

That username rings a bell, maybe I used to see you on hemscott board about 10 years ago.

Anyway I have been using the FMT system this week manually.
+35 Monday
-40 Tuesday
-40 Wednesday
Missed yesterday.
I decided to close for a 3 point loss this morning.

Hammy would you mind explaining your post above please?
You started trading at 6am? What indicated you should go short?

My signal arrived at 6:30 am.

I have FMT, EA, set on 4 separate GU M15 charts each with different start times.
I have 2 live brokers, so have 2 EAs on each broker with different magic numbers.
I like the way it's working so far, but still early days ...

cheers !..

 

[Deatil]

Taking a similar approach to this I opened two more providers at ZuluTrade. I don't take it as far as 1000 pip sl but I do go to 120 pip sl.
The names are:
Plane Rider and Bull Rider

The reason for the 120 pip sl is in back testing, I may find one bad trade in 6 months. It would only take about 2 weeks to regain the loss and from then be in profit for another 6 months. With Bull Rider I have also included EURUSD which also has proved to work well in the past. (of course still leveraging 3-5% so your account is always safe.)

Yes but this other account that you have on Zulu shows open trades with draw downs that have exceeded 550 pip per position in many cases.

So were the the famous back testing show about these trades? Even with a 2% risk at one stage just by looking back on the charts there was over 3,000 pips of floating losses.

https://www.zulutrade.com/TradeHistoryIndividual.aspx?pid=34670

 

[Lady Forex]

The people in here that had trades last night---- were you trading manually? I am using the EA and I did not have a trade.

 

[joke]

The people in here that had trades last night---- were you trading manually? I am using the EA and I did not have a trade.

I had a short trade...BE+2.. FXDD..live..I ahve the EA..4.2

 

[RedGuerrilla]

'Live' Accounts:

01-07-2011, FMT 4.2, Short/Break Even, FXSolutions, 1.5436, 1.5436, 0.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 8 No Trades, 11 Break Evens, 15 Losses, 11 Profits, Total: -232 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-07-2011, FMT 4.2, Short/Break, IBFX, 1.54369, 1.54372, -0.3
My stats since 01-04-2010: 0 No Trades, 1 Break Evens, 2 Loss, 0 Profits, Total: -83.8 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-07-2011, FMT 4.2, Short/Break Even at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.54362, 1.54362, 0.0
FXCM, 1.54349, 1.54349, 0.0
Alpari(US), 1.54374, 1.54374, 0.0
FOREX.com, 1.54370, 1.54376, -0.6
FXDD, 1.54369, 1.54369, 0.0
MB Trading, 1.54368, 1.54370, -0.2

 

[hammy66]

The people in here that had trades last night---- were you trading manually? I am using the EA and I did not have a trade.

Lady4X,

The short trade signal was clear this morning, your EA should have taken the trade.
Check in your brokers journal for any errors or re-quotes that could cause the EA to miss the trade. Or do you mean the EA signal said "NO Trade" ?..

cheers !..

 

[stiltskin]

I have FMT, EA, set on 4 separate GU M15 charts each with different start times.
I have 2 live brokers, so have 2 EAs on each broker with different magic numbers.
I like the way it's working so far, but still early days ...

cheers !..

I have not used the EA yet but wonder if I could manually do the same and have a couple of M15 £/$ charts open with the Indicator time set 15 minutes apart?