Bobcat1354
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+35 pips on PFG Best
ditto!!!:|
Guys, there's a live chat room for this system over at http://www.systemsfortraders.com/ne...50679-systems-traders-live-trading-rooms.html - Only lurked in there so far but will try and join in - I have had 2 wins and a breakeven this year.
wiseambitions
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Today is a real roller coaster. Personally i went for a Long (manual entry @ 06.30 GMT) and set for 30TP which mercifully I got, just before it turned down again. Since which of course it went up sufficient to bag 35TP if you hadn't reset to B/E
I just wanted to update my findings concerning the use of the Break Even strategy, this is no criticism of FMT, because the option has been given to us to use if we wish. (settings are currently once 20pips has been touched)
I have kept a record, using the prices of my own broker (so individual experience will vary)
Today was one of those days when BE was triggered, yet later the price recovered sufficient to have taken the whole 35TP (or even a bit more) about 2 hours after starting time, yet members could have missed out on this
In my calculations, there have been 11 times since November 1 when BE would have been triggered. On 4 of these occasions doing so would have avoided me suffering 40SL (i.e saved me 160 pips)
However, on no less than 7 days, it would have actually been possible to stay in the trade, having touched 20 pips profit and retraced but without having hit 40SL where subsequently the trade improved again and hit 35TP. 7 times 35 is +245, which offset against 160 still tells me that I'm better off in those 10 weeks by about 85 pips for having set my stops (TP and SL) at 6.30 and leaving the trade open.
Hardly a convincing data set, because this involved less than 40 potential trades, but it is something I am watching and wished to share my observations.
I just wanted to update my findings concerning the use of the Break Even strategy, this is no criticism of FMT, because the option has been given to us to use if we wish. (settings are currently once 20pips has been touched)
I have kept a record, using the prices of my own broker (so individual experience will vary)
Today was one of those days when BE was triggered, yet later the price recovered sufficient to have taken the whole 35TP (or even a bit more) about 2 hours after starting time, yet members could have missed out on this
In my calculations, there have been 11 times since November 1 when BE would have been triggered. On 4 of these occasions doing so would have avoided me suffering 40SL (i.e saved me 160 pips)
However, on no less than 7 days, it would have actually been possible to stay in the trade, having touched 20 pips profit and retraced but without having hit 40SL where subsequently the trade improved again and hit 35TP. 7 times 35 is +245, which offset against 160 still tells me that I'm better off in those 10 weeks by about 85 pips for having set my stops (TP and SL) at 6.30 and leaving the trade open.
Hardly a convincing data set, because this involved less than 40 potential trades, but it is something I am watching and wished to share my observations.
And in my opinion, a very wise observation. The adjustment to 35 pip TP and 20 pip move to B/E was probably based on what was happening in the market a few months back and has proved to be an unnecessary and costly adjustment.
I agree. Good observation..something to think about and keep a record of...
Jashfx
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This is a very interesting observation indeed. Taking into account that there is a higher % of TP being hit without moving to B/E, perhaps we should look into adjusting our stop movement but in such a way to still protect our captial. Now, Based on money management that the well known creator of Forex Rebellion, Russ Horn, uses, there may well be some merit in trying it in FMT.
Now, if market does go 20 pips in profit, instead of moving to B/E we move it up 20 pips. Now we are only risking half of our orignal risk yet we are still allowing for the market 40 pips to move within.
I would assume that most of the time the market goes 20 pips against us from entry after it has reached 20 pips profit that it will go on to hit stop. (ofcourse i have not done any backtesting to verify). So of those 4 losers, we would only have actually lost 2(by moving stop up 20 pips). The interesting assessment would come from those 7 winners and deduce whether most retraced to just take out BE or whether most retraced beyond 20 pips from entry?
Some food for thought!!!!!
wiseambitions
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ok
I think the 7 days to look at could be
November 4,8,12,26
December 1,29
January 6
Please note Mark Fric may not have been kicked out of all these trades (esp 4th Nov) due to small differences between his broker & entry price and mine.
Sorry I haven't got time to research this further today.
Jashfx
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Me neither but thanks, will take down the dates given and have a look when i do get the chance. Could be interesting.
What if we were given a two step trailing stop option. Move to BE at 20 = step 1 as we have now, then step 2 (which would be optional) where say at +30 (or at any price you choose) you move BE to +10. You would still be 20 pips behind price but on BE days you will either get 0 or +10. Maybe this is already an option in TMT i don't know as I have not been following it.,
Jashfx
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Ok --- could not resist and found the time. Observations are that my theory wont hold true for the most part. Of the above 7 dates, 4 of them conclusively retraced 20 pips from entry (nov 8, 12, 16; Dec 29) and 2 did not (Dec 1 and today Jan 6). Nov 4 was very borderline and could of gone either way so better off leaving stop where it is.
Adamus
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Someone somewhere said that the market by definition will bounce around to make a mockery of any trading schemes that depend on the market repeating itself in the short term. The best we can hope for is to implement a simple strategy that works over years and then take the long view. That's a rule of mechanical trading.
And don't worry about leaving pips on the table. That's just greed talking. Someone else again said "You don't have to kiss all the pretty girls".
It's my belief that over years and even decades, all the best systems will have a similar profit - if one is in goldrush mode like FMT, well that's just a mode that will most likely pass.
And don't worry about leaving pips on the table. That's just greed talking. Someone else again said "You don't have to kiss all the pretty girls".
It's my belief that over years and even decades, all the best systems will have a similar profit - if one is in goldrush mode like FMT, well that's just a mode that will most likely pass.
I have done a lot of back testing last year and found that TP 30, SL 50 no B/E worked best. The back test was run from 27 Jan to 1 Dec. It could be that TP 35 would be better than TP 30, but since 1 Dec I have been trading 30/50/no B/E. I trade manually with IG Index, but use my Alpari UK demo account for the triggering.
I shall stick to 30/50/no B/E for a while to see if it gives the advantage I expect - I'm just a bit concerned with the risk ratio that seems to be quite large. Fortunately I didn't trade between 15 Dec and 4 Jan. My result for Dec was -2 pips for the month...
During backtesting, what was your win:lose ratio doepi3 ? If that's good, then the R:R doesn't seem so bad.
Lady Forex
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ATC Brokers---- BE
I am not trading LIVE until Monday or Tuesday next week, but this morning was very interesting on my DEMO accounts for different start times:
6:00 start, buy trade, hit TP= 30 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, BE +5 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit TP= 30 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, BE +5 pips
cheers !
6:00 start, buy trade, hit TP= 30 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, BE +5 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit TP= 30 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, BE +5 pips
cheers !
