The bitch is that his broker's lousy spread kept Mark from hitting BE on yesterday's trade, while those of us with decent spreads set off the BE stop and got wiped out yesterday before the rally. Mark's spreads prevented him from being 20 pips up before the pullback that setup a 39-pip winner.
Congrats! The lucky star is with you this week!
The lucky star has been with me as well
+33 today Thanks for input, chrisheath! My own backtest also proved that 5:00 gmt has an edge. I will start demoing this setting along with the original next week.
wiseambitions
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Resetting SL to BE (which was initially recommended at 24, and now amended to 20) seems to me an option which needs careful consideration. Being knocked out of a trade which subsequently would have become profitable on Thursday inclined me to do a bit of manual testing.
I have looked at 2 months in isolation. October, which was a month when the 24 pip re-adjustment was first promoted. The other was June which was a month when Mark had a brilliant success.
OCTOBER: In the trading journal there were 4 occasions when SL was reset to BE. I believe that the smaller new TP of 35 would have still resulted in a win in 2 of those occasions. On one of the other occasions the potential loss of 40 was saved. In the 4th, for the date of 19th October I personally managed to win, perhaps just a freak. Mark, while aiming for 40 TP, obtained +200 pips for the month, which was very acceptable. He would have done better with 35TP, even by having the BE adjustment, but I think 35TP and 40SL with no readjustment to BE would have resulted in more pips than that. +300 in my case.
JUNE: Mark ran 16 trades, 13 wins and 3 losses. Net gain 400. I found that a smaller TP of 35, keeping SL at 40 would have not prevented those losses. However if the SL had been reset to BE, on at least 6 of the wins I think I would have been stopped out of the trades before they hit TP. I would have then had 7 wins that month instead of 13, and still had the 3 losses. Therefore under the new parameters, 7 * 35 wins less 3 * 40 losses would have achieved a net result of +125 which is far less than the 400 Mark has recorded. Without the BE reset, 35TP and 40SL would have yielded +335 which is still excellent.
My calculations only refer to two random months, and are not of statistical significance. Sorry if I've missed other references to this, but I'd be interested what conclusions other traders might have come to.
I have looked at 2 months in isolation. October, which was a month when the 24 pip re-adjustment was first promoted. The other was June which was a month when Mark had a brilliant success.
OCTOBER: In the trading journal there were 4 occasions when SL was reset to BE. I believe that the smaller new TP of 35 would have still resulted in a win in 2 of those occasions. On one of the other occasions the potential loss of 40 was saved. In the 4th, for the date of 19th October I personally managed to win, perhaps just a freak. Mark, while aiming for 40 TP, obtained +200 pips for the month, which was very acceptable. He would have done better with 35TP, even by having the BE adjustment, but I think 35TP and 40SL with no readjustment to BE would have resulted in more pips than that. +300 in my case.
JUNE: Mark ran 16 trades, 13 wins and 3 losses. Net gain 400. I found that a smaller TP of 35, keeping SL at 40 would have not prevented those losses. However if the SL had been reset to BE, on at least 6 of the wins I think I would have been stopped out of the trades before they hit TP. I would have then had 7 wins that month instead of 13, and still had the 3 losses. Therefore under the new parameters, 7 * 35 wins less 3 * 40 losses would have achieved a net result of +125 which is far less than the 400 Mark has recorded. Without the BE reset, 35TP and 40SL would have yielded +335 which is still excellent.
My calculations only refer to two random months, and are not of statistical significance. Sorry if I've missed other references to this, but I'd be interested what conclusions other traders might have come to.
Very interesting Wise and thanks the effort to do such research
Friday I have also been caught with a BE at 18... price retrace.. bing ! +3 only loosing a fat + 35
Then in your opinion (for me the most important) better not to use BE ?
wiseambitions
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That's a hard one to answer. Clearly the problem is all about allowing for the market to go the wrong way slightly before taking the direction we want. There seem to be many occasions where resetting the SL to BE during the trade denies us the eventual TP. I accept BE is better than a loss but I don't like losing the opportunity. Obviously trading conditions are liable to change but I would be very happy if the results of say April to October were sustainable in the medium term just by having a 35TP and 40SL strategy and leaving the thing to run its course.
wiseambitions
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Thank you. I've started to wonder whether it might be an interesting tactic, if having been stopped out at BE, yet believing the price was still going to trend in the desired direction, to buy back in at a lower level (or at a higher level if one was shorting the currency). For example, Thursday morning, when the signal was bullish, the price rose 21 and fell 40, so I was stopped out having reset my SL to BE, but it rcovered and did not take long to reach TP. I'd have done OK if I'd have bought back in to the market (cheaper). Hindsight is always 20/20, but how about testing the theory that you could buy back in to a market 10 or 20 pips below BE with a tight SL. The total loss should never be worse than 40 pips, as if BE had never been enacted, but the total gain could well be 35 plus a little bit more.
Wise
There two tactics with an EA
a/ You leave the thing going on as the author thaught it. Only you fix small things to intent to have a better profit (as BE, TS, etc...)
b/ Or you go in a semi manual trading, Ea showing the way and with all the risk your feeling/emotions can screw the trade... Or at the contrary... Lot of time, lot of emotions, lot of fears...
I am on plan a/ leaving the things going on... But with another target : basket of curs to "split" the risk. I am now on 8 curs (10 at beginning) and FOR THE MOMENT it's NOT too bad... And some ideas like "2nd chance trade" that I submitted to Mark... He will decide : he is the boss no ?
My 2 c
Bert
There two tactics with an EA
a/ You leave the thing going on as the author thaught it. Only you fix small things to intent to have a better profit (as BE, TS, etc...)
b/ Or you go in a semi manual trading, Ea showing the way and with all the risk your feeling/emotions can screw the trade... Or at the contrary... Lot of time, lot of emotions, lot of fears...
I am on plan a/ leaving the things going on... But with another target : basket of curs to "split" the risk. I am now on 8 curs (10 at beginning) and FOR THE MOMENT it's NOT too bad... And some ideas like "2nd chance trade" that I submitted to Mark... He will decide : he is the boss no ?
My 2 c
Bert
wiseambitions
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Interesting stuff. I don't happen to use an EA yet. The author has devised a great system with long term track record, and I trust would only tweak the strategy after careful thought. The results of January to October are plenty good enough for making a great income or rolling up capital. Obviously there are gleeful people every day making some change around the edges - eg starting times, or exiting at resistance points, to their own advantage, let them carry on.
For me simplicity is key.
What would interest me greatly right now is to understand why in spite of good long term performance there are runs like first half August 2010 or all of December 2009 when the results disappoint. Is it to do with exceptional market conditions or is it the system?
200 % right : simplicity is key
Now the question is : do unique events of the past predicts unknown events of future ???
This why I don't trust 100 % in backtests. Hey ! I didn't say that backtests are useless ! No... They can "open the way"... Sometimes "small way", sometimes "big way"... and it change !
In that conditions it is absolutely impossible the have a system (whatever) 100 % secure : we have to know it, we have to accept it. I do all the tuning to reproduce an acceptable % of profit
After that : no more test... more testicle... with no offense !
Bert
Hello Everyone,
Since BE was hit for some people and not for others in response to which someone on the forum suggested that this could be due to different vendors have difference spreads. Therefore, I was thinking if it would be a good idea for Marc to advise on different BE targets for different spreads i.e.
1-2 pips
3pips
4pips
Cheers
Since BE was hit for some people and not for others in response to which someone on the forum suggested that this could be due to different vendors have difference spreads. Therefore, I was thinking if it would be a good idea for Marc to advise on different BE targets for different spreads i.e.
1-2 pips
3pips
4pips
Cheers
wiseambitions
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Ok
Ok. It is all about probability and good profit factors. So long as settings would gain six or. more gains than losses on average over all the months in a year I ought to be very happy indeed. If there are lessons to be learned from being too greedy or changes in trading conditions I would make changes otherwise leave well alone. I am staying woith 35tp and 44"
You said the word : greedy.
It's the worst thing on Fx. I have been greedy... If you have in mind to double your account every month, it is a suicide tactic... Well a suicide tactic for your account !!!! It has been my tactic going straight to MC on my live 5 digits account...
And I will be happy for less a 10 % a month with 90 % security. No more...
After 5 years on Fx with a lot of fairy tale and holy grail I want to be more quiet...
Now this is NOT a reason to do nothing : looking for conservative settings for a good EA and deep sleep every night thinking about some $$$ profit...
Hasta luego
Bert
PS TP35 SL40 BE20(now) BE+ 3 MM %2
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My 2 c Fais :
You have to adapt yourself to your broker. Marc can't specially answer to everybody : he put some settings inside the EA and you have to "adjust" these settings to your own experience and to your own broker.
There is a "slippery" spread with some brooker (FXDD?) ?
OK Increase a bit BE, Increase a bit SL...
How much one or two pips... no more..
Leave TP as it is.
At the end of the month (not the day !) count your $$$
That's all
And don't be greedy...
Hasta luego
Bert
It may have been seasonal. August is prime vacation time even for bankers. And December could be the holiday effect or large traders not willing to put big money into the market because they're happy with the profits they already booked. Hard to say. I sometimes trade over at Compass with Ronnie. He had a great first part of the year. During the summer his results weren't that great. What we saw was more of a ranging period and when there was a trend it didn't seem to lastvery long.
If you have a mechanical system you have reasonable faith in, another approach is tomanage risk through your lot allocation. This only works if you're awake to see the pre-trade set-up. If FMT lookslike it's setting up for along but it's bumping up against significant resistance or has already had a sharp run up then you can reduce your lot allocation to 1% or .1 for example. If you see a set-up that is primed for a long orshort and your other indicators are unambiguous and screaming the same thing then you can go in heavier e.g. 5% or .5 for example.
wiseambitions
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