Forex trading live calls and set ups

[leovirgo]

To some extent it is. Overwhelmingly strong sentiments are not good for TA. There are some good entries though.

I haven't been calling all my entries lately to see if this thread is a distraction for me. One thing for sure, I don't feel 'left out' if the market moves without my set up.

 

[wackypete2]

Sat on my hands all day as my internet has been down. I have a backup I use mostly for emergencies rather than mainstream trading. Decided to just kick back and relax today. Looks like a good decision.


Peter

 

[leovirgo]

Sat on my hands all day as my internet has been down. I have a backup I use mostly for emergencies rather than mainstream trading. Decided to just kick back and relax today. Looks like a good decision.


Peter

Today was a good 'sell off day'. I was content with 55pips win on GU (1.5084 to 1.5030)and called it a day earlier than usual.. only to have missed another 280pips on the way down.

INDU fell 1000 points, UJ 500pips EU 300++ pips. A black swan day!

 

[wackypete2]

I agree, I don't feel left out at all today by missing any of the action. Probably saved me some stress anyway. I learned long ago, there's always tomorrow as long as you don't kill your account today.

Peter

 

[leovirgo]

I agree, I don't feel left out at all today by missing any of the action. Probably saved me some stress anyway. I learned long ago, there's always tomorrow as long as you don't kill your account today.

Peter

exactly. Today is one of the rare events, rather than day in day out grinding of the market machine. However, it does signal that volatile days are coming ahead.

 

[Black Swan]

Today was a good 'sell off day'. I was content with 55pips win on GU (1.5084 to 1.5030)and called it a day earlier than usual.. only to have missed another 280pips on the way down.

INDU fell 1000 points, UJ 500pips EU 300++ pips. A black swan day!

Sure was...

 

[Black Swan]

These charts are unreal,this is one time that I believe that chartists,fib boys,chart readers,christian traders,vwap boys, etc are going to struggle.

I fundamentally** disagree, swinging (using hard core TA) has been an absolute fookin dream this week on forex and oil....

** slight pun intended...

 

[leovirgo]

I think one essential ability to become a wildly successful (swing) trader is not to tempt into average returns and occassionally look for outlier (superb) returns. That is something I need to develop myself. How do you do that Black Swan? Are you still short GU? [I have been in and out for afew times but swing trading would work better these days.]

 

[Black Swan]

I think one essential ability to become a wildly successful (swing) trader is not to tempt into average returns and occassionally look for outlier (superb) returns. That is something I need to develop myself. How do you do that Black Swan? Are you still short GU? [I have been in and out for afew times but swing trading would work better these days.]

Closed at approx. 4pm on Friday, had been short most of the week. Signals were (partly)suggesting swing long but I didn't want to hold over this w-end. Have been fortunate with some home runs this week, e.g. being the right side (short) of UJ from the 5th from 2pm and EJ from 8am on the 4th etc...However, the monster drops at 6pm onwards on the 6th blasted through my limits so I felt a bit short changed...I'd no right to, but you know doubt know that feeling... Been a v. freakish week IMHO...

I think one of the main issues with swing trading versus short term TFs is to force a mind set change upon yourself. I dont' think you have to look for as you term it "outlier superb returns" they simply emerge if you stay in the trade according to your edge and plan. For me part of the mind change started with stops; no more 10-15 pip risk, it's 50-100 and the 100 pip stop is on ocassion not enough. You have to accept that sticking to your rules may *encourage* an average inevitable 50-60 pip loss. However, you can limit your (money) risk per trade accordingly and be in several pairs at once thereby arguably spreading your risk, particularly if you play the correlations..

As you know I started swinging then got a bit reckless with shorter term trading and was on reflection wearing myself down for no extra benefit. I then moved back, so I'm in the fortunate position of being able to compare/contrast and wrap a system around my psyche.

As part of my edge I use a couple of the obvious indicators (tweaked for my optimisation) that really help encourage the *stay in trade mentality*, as always works for me but mightn't for you etc. as we've all no doubt stated 1,000 times on many threads; psyche is 80/90% of this game.

 

[leovirgo]

However, the monster drops at 6pm onwards on the 6th blasted through my limits so I felt a bit short changed...

...I dont' think you have to look for as you term it "outlier superb returns" they simply emerge if you stay in the trade according to your edge and plan.

Your two statements show that 'your limit order' is still within average return/expectation.

what if you placed an "outlier limit order" in stead of that limit order on UJ?
..................

Similar experience for me

I shorted Cable at 1.5084 on May 6th election day and thought to myself I wouldn't close it until the next morning for a possible outlier result [hung parliament expectation]. I felt 'tempted and greedy' to go for it. why not, the worst is my tight 10pip or so stop :cheesy:. Within one hour, I took 50+ pips based on day trading money management mechanism. Couldn't help it as I intentionally trained myself to be like that.

Had I leave it with original stop (to satisfy TD , actually it didn't even come back above 1.5076) it could bring outlier result at 1.4580 for 500pips for that trade the following morning.

That's why discretionary trading requires a balance between 'strictly following the rules' and 'occasional breaking of own rules' to seek a few superb outlier returns.

 

[Black Swan]

Hi Leo, I only use limits in two circumstances; when away from the market for a couple of hours; gym, run, bike, travelling, family stuff etc. (and then only if the time away is straddling the crucial times or announcements), or if the market conditions look very strange/freakish. Otherwise I always (try) and stick to the plan to the letter and let the trade/s run..

I reckon if you swing trade you have to accept that if the train is moving ten stops along the line you'll hop on on at stop 3 and get off at stop 7...

meant to add, I do so where you're coming from though, if you set a huge *out there with pluto* limit it may get hit randomly with a spike...

 

[leovirgo]

I reckon if you swing trade you have to accept that if the train is moving ten stops along the line you'll hop on on at stop 3 and get off at stop 7...

that means you don't try to pick tops and bottoms

meant to add, I do so where you're coming from though, if you set a huge *out there with pluto* limit it may get hit randomly with a spike...

that's a good name, I'll call it Plutonian exit..:smart:

btw, EURUSD gapped up (+150pips) at 1.92+, Cable & UJ also gapped up

 

[rosehound]

dont usually make live calls here, dont usually watch the open - here is my call:

this market is jittery as ****.... anyone else watching this? all my quotes still so wide, wide as, if not wider than NFP's.... this must be the wolfpack i'm hearing about

 

[rosehound]

leo - didnt gap on my platform, oanda open since 6pm london, and it has traded up to 1.29, not gapped, same with cable - so many people must log in at 10 and see a gap because their price feed skips the early evening stuff

 

[leovirgo]

leo - didnt gap on my platform, oanda open since 6pm london, and it has traded up to 1.29, not gapped, same with cable - so many people must log in at 10 and see a gap because their price feed skips the early evening stuff

well let's put it this way- friday close and price at 10pm uk time have a considerable distance between them..

 

[leovirgo]

Merkel's Germany coalition is also under threat, adding political uncertainty to the Euro.

Monday, tomorrow, is big for GBP with MPC interest rate decision & deadline for Tory-LibDem deal.

Just trade with 1min chart and follow a simple moving average cross strategy with tight stop. Should be fun..

 

[gedward3]

Merkel's Germany coalition is also under threat, adding political uncertainty to the Euro.

Monday, tomorrow, is big for GBP with MPC interest rate decision & deadline for Tory-LibDem deal.

Just trade with 1min chart and follow a simple moving average cross strategy with tight stop. Should be fun..

Nothing Eur wise to be bullish about. Get sell orders in to take the profit
that will come. All downhill for the moment. Its on a big 4hr S and R line
at 1.2888 as well, if it dips below sell like hell.

Ged

 

[rosehound]

genuine question, why 10PM london time? why not 8? or 6? surely the four hours of data available and not considered by the 'trade the gap' method is worth knowing about.....

 

[leovirgo]

genuine question, why 10PM london time? why not 8? or 6? surely the four hours of data available and not considered by the 'trade the gap' method is worth knowing about.....

It's all relative, just to compare with Friday's close and see how it reacts to what has happened over the weekend i.e, economic events etc. I don't trade 'these gaps'.

EU has come back above 1.3000, now trading 1.3040.

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Morning all

clear pull back to resistance and weve even got a doji as well on 60 min