Forex basics and my trading with FBS

[SebsCubs]

The GDP growth may push the USD up

25.06.2019

The United States will release the level of final GDP growth on June 27, at 15:30 MT.

This indicator is the broadest measure of economic activity, that is why traders pay high attention to it. Last time it came out lower than the expectations (2.2% vs. 2.4%). The negative data raised concerns over the slowdown of the US economy and was one of the reasons behind the projections of the rate cut by the Fed. As a result, the USD weakened. However, this time the figures may lead to a different outcome.

• If the actual level of GDP growth is higher than the forecasts, the USD will go up;

• If the actual level of GDP growth is lower than the forecasts, the USD will go down

 

[SebsCubs]

Weekly Cryptonews

28.06.2019

Joe Kerner, CNBC journalist:

"Fiat currency is the currency for government, Libra is for corporations and the only Bitcoin was the asset for the people. I feel like a Bitcoin evangelist right now and stand by it. First of all, who made Facebook in charge to give out currency as and when they please. Who even anointed them, especially with their history?"

The week has been emotionally unstable for BTC traders. After the surge during the first part of the week, when the price for Bitcoin tested the levels above $13,800, the digital asset fell below $11,000 on Thursday. At the moment of writing, the digital currency has been trying to recover. It has already tested the resistance at $12,020. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will be placed at $12,927. From the downside, the first support is placed at $10,563. After the break of this level, the further fall will be limited by the $9,168 level.

Regulations:

· The Chinese authorities unexpectedly named Bitcoin as a safe haven for investors.

· US CFTC allowed the trading of Bitcoin futures on the LedgerX crypto exchange platform.

· The authorities of Malta wants to obligate the registration on the blockchain of all the transactions with the real estate.
Crypto announces:

· During the dump of BTC, Coinbase and BitMEX crypto exchange platform failed stress test and were functioning with glitches.

· The Singapore exchange platform Bitrue was hacked on Thursday. Hackers withdrew around $4.2 million in XRP and ADA.

· JPMorgan prepares to test its token with some of its corporate clients.
New developments:

· The Brave blockchain browser’s developers are working on the integration of the Ethereum, Ledger and Trezor crypto wallets.

· SWIFT will offer the usage of instant payments through the GPI platform to blockchain companies.

Current prices (last update 17:19 MT time)

Bitcoin $11,790

DASH $165.11

Ethereum $306.24

Litecoin: $119.19

 

[SebsCubs]

Charts in MT4

In this video, we’ll talk about the key part of the trading terminal – price charts.

In the previous video, we saw that there are several ways to open a new chart in MT4.

You can either click “File” – “New chart” or the “New Chart Icon” in the standard toolbar.

Let’s know more about to use our account!

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[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 2

02.07.2019

During the early trading hours, the Australian central bank cut its interest rate to 1% with the dovish outlook. As the decision was already priced in, the Australian dollar tested the ground below 50-period SMA ahead of the meeting but bounced back on the H4 chart. At the moment it is moving towards the resistance at 0.6994. The next resistance is placed at 0.7007. After the breakout of this level, keep an eye on the resistance at 0.7022. From the downside, bears need to pull the pair towards the 0.6963-0.6956 zone. After the breakout, the fall towards the support at 0.6947 is possible.

·Yesterday, the US threatened to raise tariffs on $4 billion of additional EU goods due to the dispute over aircraft subsidies. Combined with the comments on the further easing by the ECB policymakers, the news pulled the euro below the 50-period and 100-period SMAs on H4. Bears need to break the support at 1.1280 to pull EUR/USD lower. The next support levels will be placed at 1.1269 and 1.1257. On the other hand, if bulls try to push the pair up, they will, at first, reach the resistance at 1.1306 (100-period SMA). After that, they face resistance at 1.3190. If this level is broken, the next one will lie at 1.1348 (50-period SMA). RSI oscillator is about to leave the oversold zone, which may provide a buying opportunity. Pay attention to the speech by the FOMC member Williams, which may affect the EUR/USD pair.

·The uncertainties for the British pound remain, as one of the leading candidates on the post of the UK Prime Minister plans to leave the EU without a deal on October 31. The cable has been trying to stick below the 1.2623 on H4. The next support levels will be placed at 1.2612 and 1.2603. From the upside, buyers will pay attention to the 1.2648 level. After the breakout, the pair will rise as far as the 1.2670 level (100-period SMA) is reached.

·The greenback has risen significantly against the Chinese yuan. The USD/CNH has been testing the resistance at 6.8855 on the H4. The next significant level is placed at 6.8917. The PBOC set USD/CNY reference rate for today at 6.8513, that is why we may anticipate the fall of the pair. Keep an eye on the support levels at 6.8636, 6.8578 and 6.8486.

· Gold has been trading in a narrow range between $1,383 and $1,393 levels on H4. If the $1,393 level is broken, the next resistance lies at $1,404. After the breakout, the bullish strength may be limited by the resistance at $1,411. Bears need to pay attention to the $1,383 and $1,364 levels.

 

[SebsCubs]

Positive news from the US-China trade front is moving the aussie

03.07.2019

The Australian dollar gained on the news that China considers buying more agricultural goods from the US. On H4, AUD/USD has risen higher above the 0.7022 level and is currently targeting the resistance at 0.7047. The next key level for bulls will lie at 0.7061. If the rise is limited, the pair will fall to the 0.7011 level. The next support will lie at 0.7.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 4

04.07.2019

What currency pairs to watch today?

After the test of the 61.8% Fibo near the 1.1270 level on H4, the EUR/USD pair has been ranging between this level and resistance at 1.1294 (50% Fibo level). The bullish strength will be confirmed if the pair manages to break the current resistance and stick above the 100-period SMA. In that case, the rise may be limited by the next resistance at 1.1343 (50-period SMA). From the downside, the break of the 1.1270 level will increase the risks of the further fall towards the 1.1252 level (200-period SMA). This is also the border of the ascending trading channel.

Yesterday, GBP/USD slid towards the 1.2556 level. On H4, the pair is currently consolidating between 1.2556 and 1.2589-1.2597 levels. The weakness of the GBP will put additional pressure to the pair. As a result, if the 1.2556 level is broken, the next support will lie at 1.2510. On the other hand, the inability of bears to break the 1.2556 level will help bulls to retest the upper border of the consolidation range between 1.2589 and 1.2597. If these levels are broken, the pair will rise to the next resistance at 1.2632.

AUD/USD was unable to stick near the strong resistance at 0.7047 and fell below the 0.7022 level at the beginning of the day. Bulls need to break this level to restore the upward moving channel. However, MACD formed a bearish divergence with the price that is why we may expect further fall. From the downside, the 0.7011 and 0.7 levels are important for bears.

The kiwi has fallen below the 0.6693 level towards the 0.6674 level, which lies close to the 23.6% Fibo and 50-period SMA. The strength of bears will be confirmed if the pair manages to fall below this level and target the next support at 0.6656. The next key level for sellers will lie at 0.6629. If buyers take back control over the market, the kiwi will retest the resistance at 0.6693. The break of this level make it possible to retest the 0.6717 level.

 

[SebsCubs]

Non-farm payrolls: what pairs to watch?

05.07.2019

Analysts anticipate the level of non-farm payrolls to increase by 162K jobs (vs. 75K previously). At the same time, the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to advance by 0.3% (vs. 0.2% previously) and the unemployment rate is expected to stay stable at 3.6%. If the NFP and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will go up. Be careful with your trades as the USD gets super volatile after the release.

CHECK THE STRATEGY OF TRADING THE NFP HERE

AND JOIN THE LIVE SESSION OF TRADING THE NFP WITH FBS ANALYST ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE!

The USD has got stronger ahead of the release, but will the situation change after 15:30 MT?

· On H4, EUR/USD has crossed the 1.1270 level (61.8% Fibo) and is currently moving downwards to the 1.1257 level, which lies close to the 200-period SMA and the lower border of the ascending channel. If the employment data is positive, the pair will fall below the 1.1257 level towards the next support at 1.1223. There is the possibility for EUR/USD to reach the next support at 1.1219 and test the next level at 1.1202, of bearish pressure is strong. On the other hand, if the employment data disappoints, EUR/USD will rise back to the resistance at 1.1288, jump above the 50% Fibo level and go higher to the next resistance at 1.1319.

· GBP/USD has been testing the lower border of the consolidation range at 1.2556 on H4. If the USD gets stronger on the release, the fall towards the next support at 1.2510 will be possible. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 1.2589, 1.2604 and 1.2635.

· USD/JPY has jumped above the 100-period SMA on H4 in anticipation of the release. The next resistance levels for the pair lie at 108.12, 108.36 and 108.49. In case of a negative release, USD/JPY will fall back to 107.74. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at 107.56. Stochastic indicator is about to form a crossover within the oversold zone, which may provide us selling opportunity.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 8

08.07.2019

Last Friday the NFP outperformed the estimates. It increased by 224 thousand jobs (vs. 162 thousand expected). As a result, the USD strengthened and pulled EUR/USD down. On H4, the pair has been making modest gains towards the 1.1232 level. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 1.1246. RSI is moving close to the 30 level and may signal a buying opportunity if it crosses this level from bottom to top. If the USD gets stronger, there is a possibility for the pair to break the 1.1219 level. The next support will lie at 1.1202.

GBP/USD tested the lows at 1.2480 on Friday after the employment release for the US and stuck near the 1.2510 level. On H4, bulls need to push the pair above the 1.2541 level to confirm their strength. In that case, the cable will rise as far as the 1.2589 level will be reached. From the downside, pay attention to the 1.2510 and 1.2480 levels.

After the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fired the head of the central bank as the Governor had not cut the interest rate, the Turkish lira fell down. On H4, USD/TRY formed a gap up at the beginning of the trading day. The rise of the pair was limited by the 100-period SMA near the 5.7557 level. If the Turkish lira continues to weaken, the next resistance levels will lie at 5.7794 and 5.8. On the other hand, the pair may correct to the support at 5.6967. The next support will lie at 5.6616.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 9

09.07.2019

The US dollar has continued to gain strength on the improved outlook and the cooling in the US-China trade tensions. On H4, EUR/USD slid towards the support at 1.1202. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at 1.1185. Bulls need to push the pair above the 1.1217 level. If they succeed, buying action will be limited by the 1.1232 level.

GBP/USD has tested the lows below the 1.2480 level on H4. The next support is placed at the level of the January’s flash crash at 1.2418. If the British pound is supported, the cable will try to break the descending trading channel and rise towards the resistance at 1.2541. The next key level will lie at 1.2604.

The Australian dollar weakened on the poor Business confidence data. The indicator dropped to 2 (vs. 7 previously). Combined with a stronger USD, this release pulled the aussie down. On H4, the AUD/USD pair has fallen below the 100- and 200- period SMA. The downward movement will complete the double top pattern. The next major support for the pair will be at 0.6920. After that pay attention to the 61.8% Fibo level at 0.6913. From the upside, levels at 0.6968 (38.2% Fibo) and 0.6989 will be important for bulls.

The New Zealand dollar has fallen below the support at the 50% Fibo level at 0.6608 on H4. The next support will lie at 0.6581, which is close to the 61.6% Fibo. Alternatively, the strong bullish surge may push the kiwi above the 100-period SMA at 0.6629. After that, reaching the 0.6641 and 0.6652 resistance levels seem possible.

Gold continues falling down due to the firmer USD. At the moment, it is targeting the support at $1,384. After the breakout, sellers will pay attention to the next support at $1,364. From the upside, the traders of the yellow metal will keep an eye on the $1,397 and $1,416 resistance levels.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 10

10.07.2019

Key events ahead:

BOC rate statement – 17:00 MT

The bank won’t change its rate, that is why pay attention to its tone

Testimony by the Fed chair – 17:00 MT

More hints on the expected rate cut will weaken the USD

FOMC meeting minutes – 21:00 MT

Less dovish insights will bring positive momentum to the USD

· GBP/USD has continued to move within the downward trading channel on H4. If the British pound is supported today, the pair will break the 1.2459 level. After that, the rise above the 1.2476 level seems possible. The next key level for bulls will be placed at 1.2521. From the downside, the first support lies at 1.2439, the next one – at 1.2379.

· EUR/USD has been knocking the resistance at 1.1217 on H4. If this level is broken, the further rise will be limited by the 1.1232 level. The next resistance will lie at 1.1246. If the USD gets stronger today, the pair will fall below the 1.12 level which is correlated with the long-term trendline and target the next support at 1.1187. After that, the next key level in focus of bears will be placed at 1.1178.

· USD/CAD has been awaiting the central bank’s decision and testimony by the Fed chair. The pair has been trading within a narrow range on H4. Hawkish comments for the CAD will pull the pair below the 1.3119 level. The next support level will lie at 1.3104. After the breakout, the pair may fall below the 50-period SMA and target the 1.3084 level. On the other hand, strong USD will push the pair above the 1.3132 level. The next resistance levels will lie at 1.3146 and 1.3158. There is a possibility for the pair to complete the formation of the double bottom pattern if the pair manages to break the 1.3132 and 1.3146 levels.

· During the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD pair has tested the 0.6567 level. There was no clear reason behind this sellout. At the moment, the pair is trying to recover. On H4, it is moving towards the 50% Fibo above the 200-period SMA. If it manages to stick above this level, the rise will continue until the 0.6618 level will be reached. The support levels from the downside are 0.6581 (61.8% Fibo) and 0.6567.

· USD/JPY has been trading within the uptrend on H4. If the USD is supported today, the pair will break the resistance at 109. The next resistance will lie at 109.21. If the Fed chair provides dovish comments, the fall below the 108.71 level will be inevitable. The next support will lie at 108.51.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 11

11.07.2019

Key events ahead

BOE Financial Stability Report – 12:30 MT time

Hawkish outlines will support the British pound

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 13:00 MT time

His comments regarding future changes to the monetary policy will affect the GBP

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 14:30 MT time

More insights into the previous dovish meeting of the ECB

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT time

Higher-than-expected figures may help the USD to recover

Testimony by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell – 17:00 MT time

Let’s hear further comments by the dovish Fed Chair

Speech by the FOMC member Quarles – 20:30 MT time

Probably the last chance for the USD bulls to see the rise of the USD today, if the comments by the FOMC member are less dovish.


Yesterday, the dovish remarks on the expectations of a rate cut by the Fed weakened the USD against other currencies. On H4, EUR/USD has managed to stick above the crossover of the 50-period and 200-period SMA near the 1.1269 level. If the USD continues to weaken, bulls will likely face the resistance at 1.1285. After the breakout, the rise will be limited by the 1.1306 level. The next key level is 1.1321. If the USD gets positive momentum, the euro will slide below the 1.1269 level. The next support levels will lie at 1.1257 and 1.1249. Pay attention to the oscillators: if RSI leaves the overbought zone and Stochastic forms a crossover it may bring a short-term selling opportunity.

GBP/USD also started to correct to the upside on dovish comments by Powell. The cable has already tested the resistance at 1.2538 on H4. The next key level will lie at 1.2587 (50% Fibo). If this level is broken, we need to pay attention to the 1.2603 and 1.2636 levels. From the downside, the support levels lie at 1.2508, 1.2496 and 1.2479. The stochastic indicator is about to form a crossover within the overbought zone.

USD/JPY, in its turn, corrected to the downside. The first resistance for the pair lies at 108.13 (38.2% Fibo), If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 108.26 (50-period SMA). The strength of bulls will be proved after the next level at 108.37 is reached. On the other hand, weak USD will pull the pair to the support at 107.88 (50% Fibo). The next important level for bears lies at 107.61 (61.8% Fibo level).

Oil has been rising on the news that third of the Gulf of Mexico’s crude output was halted by a storm and the crude oil inventories for the US declined more than expected (-9.5M vs. -1.9M).

WTI jumped to its May’s highs. The crude’s price is currently moving towards the resistance at $61.23 on H4. The next resistance for WTI will lie at $62.11. From the downside, pay attention to the $60.66 and $59.73 levels.

As for Brent, its price is going up to the resistance at $67.68. The next resistance will lie at $68.11. The key support levels are $67.39, $66.5 and $66.03.

 

[SebsCubs]

Weekly Cryptonews

12.07.2019

Charlie Lee, creator of Litecoin:

“Crypto’s really risky. I've seen many bear markets or crashes that are 90% down … when the price does crash, it shakes off all the weak hands. So, my point was that if you can't withstand a 90% drop, then don't buy-in, because it's too risky for you."

After the test of the $13,130 level on Wednesday, the price for BTC dropped to the support at $11,000. If the price for the digital currency gets more pressure from the downside, the retest of the $11,000 level (lower border of the symmetrical triangle) will be possible. In that case, the next support will lie at $10,560. The break of this level will increase the possibility of the test of the 38.2% Fibo at $10,020. If the price for the oldest crypto gets bullish momentum, it will rise to the resistance at $12,030, after that the resistance will lie at $12,370. If bulls manage to overcome these resistance levels, the test of the $12,770 level will be inevitable.

Regulations:

· This week was remarkable for the comments by the US officials on crypto. At first, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called Bitcoin a store of value, like gold. After that, US President Donald Trump tweeted that cryptocurrencies are not money and their value is based on thin air. According to his words, the only currency in the USA is USD.

· US Security and exchange commission (SEC) allowed conducting the first ICO to the Blockstack project.

· Turkish central bank plans to make its own cryptocurrency. It seems like the policymakers gave up on the Turkish lira, doesn’t it?

· Authorities of Iran age going to legalize mining.

· US tax regulator promised to develop new methods to deal with the tax fraud.
New developments:

· Goldman Sachs opened its own crypto department and now is ready to compete with JP Morgan.

· The news about the search in the TRON office turned out to be fake.
Current prices (last update 15:16 MT time):

Bitcoin $11,698

DASH: $148.87

Ethereum: $276.56

Litecoin: $105.62

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

15.07.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales (Tue, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT time)) – According to analysts, both headline and core retail sales will advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will boost the USD.

Speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tue, 20:00 MT (17:00 GMT time)) – If Mr. Powell provides supportive comments for the USD this time, the US dollar will go up.

British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT time)) – The indicator is expected to increase by 2%. If the actual release outperforms the forecasts, the GBP will rise.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT time)) – Analysts anticipate the slowdown in the employment change (from +42.3K last time to +9.1K) and the stable level of the unemployment rate at 5.2%. If the actual figures of employment change are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the Australian dollar will move up.

Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT time)) – The indicator is forecast to increase by 0.3%. Greater figures will be positive for the loonie.

Hot news:

After the release of Chinese GDP growth showed the slowdown, reaching only 6.2%, US President Donald Trump tweeted that China wants to make a trade deal soon.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 16

16.07.2019

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 15:00 MT time

If the governor’s comments regarding monetary policy are hawkish, the British pound will move up.

Speech by the FOMC member Bowman – 15:15 MT time

If the policymaker softens his comments concerning the rate cut, the USD will go up.

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT time

The key release for the USD today. Both headline and core indicators are expected to advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will bring positive momentum for the USD.

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell – 20:00 MT time

Speech by the FOMC member Evans – 22:30 MT time

Pay attention to the hints on the rate cut by the Fed speakers.


The New Zealand dollar was supported today by the release of its CPI during the Asian trading session. The indicator came out in line with the forecasts as it advanced by 0.6%. On H4, NZD/USD retested the resistance at 0.6734 but failed to break it. If the USD is supported today, the pair will move lower to the support at 0.6716. The next key support levels lie at 0.67 and 0.6670. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance at 0.6734. If this level is broken, the further rise will be limited by the 0.6748 level. RSI is about to leave the overbought zone and Stochastic indicator formed a crossover. These facts may provide us a short-term selling opportunity.

The British pound weakened significantly ahead of the employment data and the speech by the BOE governor. It has tested the ground below the 1.2479 level on H4. The next support in the focus of bears will lie at 1.2439. If the cable reverses, the pair will retest the 1.2520 level. If this resistance is broken, bulls will target the 1.2538 level. Stochastic indicator formed a crossover within the oversold zone.

EUR/USD has been consolidating between the 1.1284 and the 1.1236 levels since July 11. Today it has already tested the levels below the 50-period SMA at 1.1249. If the USD is supported today, bears will break the 1.1236 level and target the next support at 1.1220. Key resistance levels for the euro are 1.1263, 1.1274 and 1.1284.

 

[SebsCubs]

Crab

The Crab is another harmonic pattern that is derived from the Gartley pattern. The special thing about it is the long XA and CD swings. The point D is far away and lies beyond the starting point X. This is what differentiates the Crab from other harmonic patterns.

Learn more with article!

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[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 18

08:45 18.07.2019

Key events ahead

British retail sales– 11:30 MT time (9:30 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Williams – 21:15 MT time (18:15 GMT)

Rate Statement by the South African Reserve bank – 16:00 MT time (13:00 GMT)


The European trading session started positively for the British pound. GBP/USD has risen on comments by Michel Barnier. He noted that the EU is ready to work on alternative arrangements for the Irish border. On H4, the cable is moving towards the resistance at 1.2477. If this level is broken, the next key resistance will be placed at 1.2504. From the downside, keep an eye on the support levels at 1.2422, 1.2399 and 1.2381.

As the USD got weaker, the gold was supported yesterday. After the test of the $1,427 level, the yellow metal fell to the support at $1,421. The next support for gold will lie at $1,412. However, the uncertainty around the Fed decision on the rate cut continues, as a result, we may see the yellow metal retesting the $1,427 level with the following breakout and rise to the $1,433 level.

USD/ZAR is awaiting the decision by the South African Reserve bank scheduled at 16:00 MT. According to analysts, we will see a rate cut today. In this case, the pair will break the resistance at 50-period SMA (14.0202) on H4 and target the next one at 100-period SMA at 14.0785. If the central bank is hawkish, the pair may fall below the 13.9568 levels. The next support will lie at 13.8567.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 19

19.07.2019

Key events ahead:

Core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Yesterday, the speech by New York Fed President John Williams sent the US dollar lower. According to his words, the measures are needed to prevent disaster in the US economy. After that, his comments were confirmed by the FOMC member Richard Clarida. However, the comments by the NY Fed President Williams were clarified by the New York Fed, where the institution noted about the academic character of the Williams’ comments.

On H4, EUR/USD rose by 58 pips during the American trading session and tested the 200-period SMA at 1.1280. After the reassuring comments by the NY Fed, bears tried to pull the pair lower to the 50-period SMA. At the moment, EUR/USD is testing the support at 1.1253. The next support for bears will lie at 1.1237. From the upside, the first resistance lies at 1.1263. After the breakout, wait for the pair to reach the strong resistance zone at 1.1274-1.1280.

The USD/CAD pair is awaiting the release of core retail sales at 15:30 MT time. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the pair will slide below the 1.3019 level. The next support will lie at 1.3003, which is the lower border of the downward trading channel. Otherwise, the first resistance level will be placed at 1.3060 (50-period SMA). The next resistance will lie at 1.3077 (100-period SMA).

Gold reacted to the dovish speeches by the Fed members and the news that US ship took defensive action against Iranian drone. The yellow metal rose to its highest level since 2013 and tested the levels above the resistance at $1,448 on H4. Now, the price for gold is correcting to the downside. If it continues to weaken, the first support will lie at $1,423. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at $1,412. If bulls take over the market once again, XAU/USD will retest the $1,448 level.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

22.07.2019

French and German flash services PMI, German flash manufacturing PMI (Wed, 10:15 MT and 10:30 MT (7:15 GMT and 7:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, French flash services PMI will decline to 52.7, while German data will show mixed results with flash manufacturing PMI increasing to 45.1 and flash services PMI falling to 55.3 points. Higher figures will support the EUR.

Speech by the RBA governor Philip Lowe (Thu, 6:05 MT (3:05 GMT)) – If the head of the bank is hawkish, the AUD will rise.

ECB monetary policy statement (Thu, 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT)) – We will wait for more hints on the possible easing by the European central bank. If they are confirmed, the EUR may suffer. Also, pay attention to the press conference with the ECB president Mario Draghi at 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time. His comments may show us a clearer picture of the future steps by the bank.

US core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts forecast an increase by 0.2%. If the actual level of indicator is greater, the USD will go up.

US advance GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – The GDP growth for the US is expected to advance by 1.8%. A higher level will be good for the USD bulls.

Hot news:

Great Britain is awaiting the leadership voting contest for the Conservative party on Tuesday. The outcome will determine the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. The members of the party will choose between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. Most analysts see Mr. Johnson, the hard-Brexit follower, taking the office. Some ministers do not support his candidature and resign ahead of the elections’ outcome. The political uncertainties within the leading party weaken the British pound. It is recommended to follow the headlines, as more negative news puts additional pressure on the GBP. The outcome of the contest will be announced after the 19:00 MT (16:00 GMT) time.

The oil prices surged after the British tanker was seized by the Iranian military forces over the weekend. The conflict in the Middle East is what driving crude’s prices now.

According to the Chinese press, Chinese companies started to seek for new purchases of US agricultural products. Some of the analysists see this news as the positive step towards the restart of the US-China trade talks.

 

[SebsCubs]

Will the ECB president change his tone?

More at: http://bit.ly/2YdjkvO

23.07.2019

The European Central Bank will publish its monetary policy statement and announce the official rate on July 25, at 14:45 MT time. After that, the ECB president Mario Draghi will conduct a press conference at 15:30 MT time. We anticipate no changes to the current interest rate, which is held at 0%. However, the ECB president Mario Draghi may throw hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy and provide comments on the current economic outlook. Last time, Mr. Draghi suggested that the European economy needed additional stimulus for better conditions. His dovish comments pulled the euro lower. If the ECB president changes his tone this time, the situation will be different.

• If the ECB is hawkish, the euro will rise;

• If the ECB is dovish, the euro will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on July 24


24.07.2019

EUR/USD weakened on the lower-than-expected PMIs. The data disappointed with French flash services PMI falling to 52.2 points (vs. expected 52.7 points) and German flash manufacturing PMI reaching 43.1 points (vs the forecast of 45.1 points). On H4, the pair has tested the support located at the 1.1118-1.1127 levels. If bears pull the pair lower, the next support will lie at the lows of 2017 at 1.1076. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 1.1159, 1.1166 and 1.1177. It is worth to mention that on the daily chart the pair completed the “Head and Shoulders” pattern.

GBP/USD could not hold the gains after Boris Johnson was announced the next Prime Minister of Great Britain and fell to the support at 1.2427. After the slow start of the trading day, the cable has attempted to recover to the resistance at 1.2455. The next resistance levels lie at 1.2475 and 1.2495. In case of a reversal, the pair will retest the 1.2427 level. After the breakout, pay attention to the support at 1.2399.

According to Westpac, there is a chance for the Reserve bank of Australia to cut its interest rate again in November (earlier, than it was forecast before). The Australian dollar plunges on the news. On H4, the aussie has fallen below the 100-period SMA since the beginning of the day. The first support for AUD/USD will lie at 0.6967. The next one at 0.6957. If the pair goes up, there is a chance that it will test the resistance at 0.6989.