Forex basics and my trading with FBS

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on August 26

26.08.2019

Key events ahead:

US core durable goods orders – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The escalation of the trade war between the US and China has shaken the markets a lot. On Friday, China announced additional tariffs on $75 billion of American goods, including soybeans, automobiles, and oil. It did not take a long time for US President Donald Trump to respond as the US administration hit back with more tariffs on Chinese imports afterward and called for American companies to exit China's market. The risk-weighted currencies fell after the market opened, but managed to take back their positions on the comments that China wants to resolve the trade dispute with the US.

AUD/USD tested the 0.6688 level but rebounded to the resistance at 0.6760. If bulls manage to break this level, the next resistance will lie at 0.6776. On the other hand, if the risk sentiment fades again, the pair will retest the 0.6688 level. The next support will lie at 0.6677.

USD/JPY slid below the 104.73 level on H4 but immediately rebounded upwards to the resistance level at 106.03. In case of a breakout of this level, pay attention to the next key resistance at 106.23, which lies close to the crossover of 50- and 100- period SMAs. From the downside, it is recommended to pay attention to the 105.05 level. If the Japanese yen retest it, the chance of the fall to the lowest levels since January's flash crash at 104.73 will increase.

Gold gapped up to its highest levels since 2013. The yellow metal has tested the highs at $1,555. Softer risk sentiment pulled it lower to the support at $1,525. The next key support for the price of gold will be placed at $1,508.8 (50-period SMA). However, as traders remain cautious today, it is recommended to keep an eye on the $1,555 level, which may be retested if risk-off sentiment increases.

USD/CNH jumped to the fresh highs at 7.17 on the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China. If the pair reverses, the first support at 7.0917 will be in focus. Bulls, on the other hand, will be looking for a retest of the 7.17 level.

USD/TRY has risen from 5.7553 to 6.2850 during the flash crash, which occurred at the Asian trading session. It happened due to the Japanese investors who cut risk assets. The price immediately returned close to the 5.8066 level, which currently serves as a resistance for the pair. From the downside, the first support lies at 5.7325.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

27.08.2019

ANZ Business confidence of New Zealand (Thu, 4:00 MT (1:00 GMT) time) – Higher-than-expected figures will push the NZD up.

Private capital expenditure of Australia (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT) time) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.4%. If the actual level outperforms the forecasts, the AUD will rise.

US preliminary GDP (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - The indicator is expected to increase by 2%. If the actual level is higher, the USD will be supported.

Canadian GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – Analysts expect the Canadian GDP growth to advance by 0.1%. The higher-than-expected level will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

Personal spending of the US (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of personal spending is forecast to advance by 0.5%. As usual, higher figures may push the greenback up.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on August 28

28.08.2019

The governor of the Reserve bank of New Zealand made some remarks on keeping the NZD weaker. As a result, NZD/USD inched lower to the 0.6334. The pair has been trading at the lowest level since 2015. If this level is broken, the next support will lie below the lower border of the descending channel at 0.6297. If the pair recovers, the first resistance level will lie at 0.6366. After the break of this level, the resistance at 0.6391 will be in focus.

Brexit news continues to move the pound. Reportedly, the Queen will be asked to prorogue parliament. She is expected to make a speech on that matter on October 14. That means the opposition parties will have a little time to organize. GBP/USD plunged below the 1.2211 level on the news. The next support levels will lie at 1.2171 and 1.2147. From the upside, pay attention to the 1.2293 level, which will be broken in case of a reversal.

After the slide towards the $1,532 level, the price of gold managed to restore its positions. It is currently moving towards the resistance at $1,544. If this level is broken, the retest of $1,555 will be possible. If the risk-on sentiment increases, the price will slide downwards to the support at $1,532. After the breakout, the price will fall as far as the $1,525 level will be reached.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on August 29

29.08.2019

US preliminary GDP – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

After correcting to the 1-2235-1.2249 levels on H4, GBP/USD moved lower. The cable has tested the ground below the 50-period SMA at the 1.2194 level. If this level is broken, the next support in focus will be placed at 1.2171. In case of an upside movement, we will be looking for a retest of the 1.2213 level. After that, the retest of the levels placed between 1.2235 and 1.2249 will be in focus.

EUR/USD has been trading between 1.1073 and 1.1086 levels. If the USD gets stronger on today’s release, the pair will slide below the 1.1073 level. The next support for the pair will be placed at 1.1065. The further downward movement will be limited by the lower border of a long-term symmetric triangle. On the other hand, bulls will pay attention to the 1.1086 level. If it is broken, the next resistance level will lie at 1.1095 (50-period SMA).

USD/JPY is looking for a break of 50-period SMA and 106.22 level on the more risky sentiment. Buyers may focus on the next level at 106.4 if the current resistance is broken. The next key level will lie at 106.6. From the downside, the first support level will be placed at 105.82. The break of this level will make the pair vulnerable to a fall towards the 105.64-105.51 levels.

 

[SebsCubs]

How will the RBA affect the aussie?

30.08.2019

The Reserve bank of Australia (RBA) will publish its statement and announce the official rate on September 3, at 7:30 MT time.

The market is assessing the chance of a rate cut during the upcoming meeting. Analysts are sure that the central bank of Australia will ease its monetary policy soon due to the global economic instability. However, not all of them expect September's meeting to be the crucial one for the RBA. Those who don't see a rate cut in September suggest waiting for more indicators and negative news. This data will help the policymakers of the bank to determine their next step. Others think that the Reserve bank of Australia should cut the rate immediately due to the global uncertainties. Anyway, the tone of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe will be in focus, as traders will be looking for hints on the future rate decisions.

• If the RBA is hawkish, the AUD will rise;

• If the RBA is dovish, the AUD will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

02.09.2019

RBA rate statement (Tue, 7:30 MT (4:30 GMT) time) – We anticipate the Reserve bank of Australia to keep the interest rate unchanged at 1%. At the same time, we will be looking for more hints on further decisions, as the market expects more rate cuts until the end of this year.

Canada’s trade balance (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to the forecasts, the difference in value between exported and imported goods will reach 0.2 billion. A higher level will boost the CAD.

Inflation report hearings by the BOE (Wed, 16:15 MT (13:15 GMT) time) – If the Bank of England governor is hawkish, the GBP will be supported.

BOC rate statement (Wed, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – The interest rate is forecast to remain at 1.75%. The attention will be on the tone of the central bank. As usual, more hawkish comments will be appreciated by the CAD bulls.

US jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of non-farm payrolls is expected to advance by 168 thousand jobs. At the same time, average hourly earnings will increase by 0.3% and the unemployment rate will likely remain at the same level of 3.7%. If the actual level of NFP and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will rise.

Hot news:

The United States and China imposed new tariffs on each other’s goods. The 15% tariffs by the US on the part of $300 billion goods was confirmed by Donald Trump during the weekend. At the same time, the retaliatory step came from China with a target of $75 billion in US goods. It pulled the risk sentiment in the market down.

The series of court hearings, which plan to stop the British PM Boris Johnson’s prorogation of the parliament may affect the strength of the British pound. The first one is due tomorrow, so pay attention to the news. It’s worth to remember that the parliament will return on Tuesday and opposition lawmakers are expected to propose legislation to force the government to postpone Brexit.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 3

03.09.2019

American ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

The EURUSD pair keeps struggling. On the daily chart, it has already crossed the support at 1.0965 targeting new lows. For intraday trading, we need to consider the H4 chart. The next support is at 1.0934. A break below it will cause a decline to 1.0887. If the actual release of ISM Manufacturing PMI is weaker than the forecast, there is a chance that the fall will be limited. If the pair is able to recover, previous supports will become levels of resistance.


Parliament is due to debate an emergency plan to take control of the legislation to stop a no-deal Brexit on October 31.

On the daily chart of GBPUSD, the pair hit the crucial level of 1.20. Although such indicators as MACD and Awesome Oscillator signal a reversal, the pair has been slowing down. The next support is at 1.1986. If the pair closes below it, we can anticipate a further fall. A rebound will push the pair to 1.2020.

The Australian dollar has been strengthening despite weaker actual reading of retail sales data and luck of hawkish comments by the RBA.

On the daily chart of AUDUSD, the pair rebounded from the support at 0.6689. The pair needs to break above 0.6735 to confirm the recovery. However, Moving Averages continue moving down. It signals a possible continuation of the downtrend. Thus, there are risks of the return to 0.6689.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 4

04.09.2019

Canadian Trade Balance data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

BOC Rate Statement – 17:00 MT time (14:00 GMT)

On the daily chart of USDCAD, MACD indicator has formed a bearish divergence with the price. It signals the pair is turning down. If we take a look at H4, levels of support are placed at 1.3315, 1.3278 and 1.3251. If the CAD is boosted by the economic data, levels will be reached. However, if the central bank sounds dovish or the actual trade balance data is worse than the forecast, the fall will be limited. Previous supports will become resistances. If the pair stays above 1.3315, the resistances are at 1.3370 and 1.3373.

GBPUSD has strengthened on the Brexit news.

Although the British Parliament started working only yesterday, it managed to affect the British currency.

As the Parliament doesn’t have a lot of time to prevent the no-deal Brexit, today members are supposed to put forward a draft law that would force Mr. Johnson to delay Brexit until January 31, 2020. If the law passes, the Prime Minister will call the general election. Thus, the British currency will continue being highly volatile.

Up to now, the GBPUSD pair has been targeting the resistance at 1.2178. RSI indicator is about to cross the overbought area. However, the pair still has a chance to keep rising. If 1.2178 is broken, the next range of the resistance is 1.2214-1.2240.

If the pair moves down, supports are placed at 1.2117 and 1.2080.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 5

05.09.2019

Forex

The British pound keeps gaining on the Brexit updates. The Parliament passed the legislation both to block a hard no-deal Brexit and a general election.

GBPUSD has crossed the resistance at 1.2290. 50-day MA may become an additional barrier. If 50-day MA is broken, consider 1.2367 as the next target.

If the pair rebounds, look at 1.2216 and 1.2170.


Commodities

Gold turned down on the risk-on sentiment. Any positive sign in the Sino-American trade war improves the market sentiment. Parties announced a fresh round of talks in October. Moreover, China confirmed its willingness to achieve progress in the negotiations.

Currently, XAUUSD is at highs of 2013. Thus, a small correction is obvious. However, it doesn’t mean that the fall will prolong for a long time. Supports are placed at 1536 and 1519-1525.

Unlike gold, WTI is pushed by the risk-on sentiment. Nevertheless, risks of the decline exist. Downward pressure will pull WTI to supports at 55.30 and54.25.

Crude oil inventories data is published today at 18:00 MT time. If the release shows a decline in the number of barrels, WTI will move towards the range of 56.80-57.50.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 6

06.09.2019

Canadian jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:30 GMT)

American jobs data – 15:30 MT time (12:00 GMT)

Fed Chair Powel Speaks - 19:30 MT time (16:30 GMT)

Forex

Traders are cautious awaiting the American jobs data. According to the forecast, in August, NFP gained 160K comparing to 164K a month before. Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate are anticipated to stay on hold. The forecast is not encouraging for the USD. However, the actual release is what actually will show the strength of the American currency.

Later in the evening, Fed chairman Mr. Powell speaks in Zurich. If the chair gives any hints on the future monetary policy, markets will be affected.

The US dollar index has been struggling ahead of the jobs release. If the NFP disappoints, the fall will continue. In the case of encouraging readings, depreciation of the greenback will be limited.

What majors to trade?

EURUSD continues trading in the downtrend but the weakness of the USD has been supporting the rise. If the USD keeps declining, the pair has a chance to reach 1.1065 and move above towards 1.1085. The strong USD will cause a reversal of the pair to 1.1025, 1.0986.


Canadian and American jobs data are to released at the same time. Traders should be careful trading USDCAD.

Up to now, the pair has been sliding because the forecast for the Canadian release is more optimistic than for the American one. The further direction will depend on the actual reading.

If the fall continues, the pair will cross the support range of 1.3198-1.3185. The next supports are at 1.3154 and 1.3118.

If the pair is able to recover, previous supports should be considered as resistances. If bulls keep the pair above 1.3198, the next important levels are 1.3234 and 1.3256.

Commodities.

The correction of the gold continues. Although the USD keeps weakening, the XAUUSD pair is moving down. The risk-on sentiment is the key factor that pulls the gold down.

Now, bears are trying to break the support at 1,508. If they succeed, the next targets are placed at 1,495 and 1,485. If the pair manages to recover, previous supports will be used as resistances. If the pair sticks above 1508, levels to watch are 1,519 and 1,527.

 

[SebsCubs]

6 Ways to Prevent Overtrading

If you ever risked without a clear edge in your trading – congratulations, you are overtrading. This habit is very addictive and can ruin your finances quickly. Try these techniques to stop overtrading:
- Do not try to win back the money right after the loss.
- Make a trading plan and keep to it. It will help you to discipline yourself.
- Do not trade 24/7. You cannot be focused and effective without breaks. No need staring at charts non-stop. You may be bored to death, at best, and the worst-case scenario, you’ll take impulsive decisions you are going to regret.
- Limit your profit and loss for a day. Train your will, stop even if you want more or feel frustrated because of a failure.
- Decide on the number of trades you can make during the day. Stick to it.
- Spare time for life without trading! Go out, run, paint, meet friends, and visit the family.

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[SebsCubs]

IMPORTANT EVENTS TO TRADE THIS WEEK

09.09.2019

ECB Meeting (Thu, 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time) – analysts don’t predict rate changes. However, traders will look at the tone of the central bank. If the bank sounds hawkish, that is unlikely, the European currency will move up. In the case of the dovish mode covering global uncertainties, the euro will move down.

American CPI level (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - forecasts are weak but the actual readings will be more important. If the releases overcome the forecasts, the American currency will appreciate.

American retail sales figures (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) - again forecasts are not encouraging, the American currency has risks to decline.



Political issues: Brexit

The sudden resignation of Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd heated up the situation. It’s worth reminding that recently PM’s brother, Jo Johnson, quit the government.

Nevertheless, Boris Johnson is sticking to his decision to bring the UK to the Brexit by the end of October despite a series of fails in the Parliament. There are odds that the Prime Minister will get round the Parliament law requiring a Brexit delay in the case of no deal.

On Monday, the Parliament will vote on the general elections taking its last chance to do something before the shutdown.

Traders should follow the news carefully to not miss an opportunity to trade on the high volatility.

 

[SebsCubs]

7 options to make your money work for you

People say that money is not supposed to be simply saved. It is believed that the best way to control your money is to invest it and make it work for you in the future. But what can you invest in? There are many options to choose from.
Choose yours to be sure that your money is safe and sound!

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[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 12

12.09.2019

Key events ahead:

ECB monetary policy statement and main refinancing rate – 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time

ECB press conference – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Eyes of all traders of the EUR will be on the ECB meeting later today. The European Central bank is expected to deliver a great stimulus package, which may weaken the EUR. At the moment, EUR/USD is moving up towards the resistance at 1.1037. The next key level will be placed at 1.1054. From the downside, the first support will lie at 1.1. After that, you need to pay attention to the 1.0983 level. The next support will lie at 1.0960.

After the US President Donald Trump tweeted he'd be delaying the next tariff hike on Chinese goods for two weeks, the USD/JPY pair tested the 108.16 resistance level. After that, the pair inched to the downside to the support level at 107.78. If the Japanese yen continues to strengthen, the next support will be placed at 107.62. In case of the bullish strength, the pair will rise back to the 108.16 level. The next resistance will lie at 108.29.

The Australian dollar was supported by the news, too. The Antipodean currency has risen to the 0.6885 level. If bulls push AUD/USD pair higher, the next resistance will lie at 0.6896. On the other hand, if the USD gets stronger, the pair will fall to the support at 0.6867. After the breakout of this level, the 0.6857 mark will be important.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 13

13.09.2019

Key events ahead:

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Yesterday, the European Central bank introduced a new stimulus, which included lower rates and fresh quantitative easing measures. EUR/USD pair fell to the support at 1.0929 but managed to rebound and jumped by around 160 pips due to the weaker dollar. Since the beginning of the European trading session, bulls have pushed the pair to the resistance level at 1.1095 (200-period SMA) and have tested the 1.1106 level. The main focus of traders will be on US retail data. According to the forecasts, headline retail sales will increase by 0.2%, while its core level will advance by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the pair will slide below the 1.1065 level. The next support levels in focus will lie at 1.1050 and 1.1036. Alternatively, the disappointing release will weaken the USD. As a result, buyers will be confident enough in retesting the resistance at 1.1106. The next resistance will lie at 1.1116. Strong bullish pressure will push the pair even higher towards the 1.1137 level.

GBP/USD has taken advantage of the weaker USD and jumped by around100 pips to the resistance at 1.2459. The next direction of the pound will depend on the Brexit headlines. From the upside, it is recommended to pay attention to the 1.2459, 1.2495 and 1.2508 levels. If the USD gets stronger, we will see the slide towards the support levels at 1.2427, 1.2395 and 1.2338.

USD/JPY has been moving down on the weaker USD. If it continues to fall further, the test of the support at 107.78 will be inevitable. If it is broken, the next key level will lie at 107.62. Buyers will be focused on the retest of the 108.16-10824 levels. If the pair breaks them, the further rise may be limited by the 108.49 level.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

16.09.2019

British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 1.8%. If the actual level is higher, the GBP will rise.

Canadian CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – As for Canada’s consumer inflation index, we are awaiting it to decline by 0.2%.

FOMC rate statement (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)) – The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its interest rate from 2.25-2% to 1.75-2%. In addition, it is important to pay attention to the dot plot, where the FOMC representatives are going to express their views on the future rate changes. After that, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell may also provide comments which may shake the USD at 21:30 MT time.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT)) – The employment change is expected to increase by 15.2 thousand jobs, while unemployment change will likely remain at the same level of 5.2%. Higher-than-expected employment change and the lower-than-expected unemployment rate will be positive for the aussie.

The monetary policy summary by the BOE (Thu, 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT)) – The interest rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 0.75%. It is recommended to pay attention to the tone of the statement. Hawkish comments will push the GBP up.

Hot topics:

Crude oil surged after the attack on the Saudi Arabian production facility over the weekend. An attack affected 5% of global crude output. Today, US president Donald Trump announced that he would release US emergency supplies to pull the oil prices down. In addition, oil producers said that there were enough stocks stored up worldwide. However, the fresh attacks pushed prices of WTI and Brent back to their May’s levels.

US and China trade representatives will meet on Friday. The goal of the meeting will be to discuss the possibility of an interim trade deal. We expect risk sentiment to be affected.

The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has had a meeting with the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker today, where they agreed that Brexit talks must intensify.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 18

18.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Canadian CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT) time

FOMC rate statement and economic projections – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

FOMC press conference – 21:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time

EUR/USD has fallen after the test of the 1.1074 level. The pair has touched the 100-period SMA at 1.1035. The direction of the pair will depend on the Fed meeting today at 21:00 MT. The market anticipates a rate cut. If it happens, the USD is forecast to fall. In this case, buyers will take advantage of the weaker USD and push the pair higher. The first resistance level lies at 1.1055. If it is broken, pay attention to the next resistance levels at 1.1067 and 1.1074. If the Fed surprises with keeping its rate on hold, the USD will strengthen. Bears will pay attention to the 1.1035 levels. If they manage to break it, the further levels in focus will be placed at 1.1014 and 1.1. Technically, the pair formed a symmetrical triangle.

The traders of the CAD are awaiting the release of Canadian CPI at 15:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the indicator will slide by 0.2%. Higher-than-expected figures will pull USD/CAD below the 200-period SMA towards the support at 1.3253. The next key support will lie below the 100-period SMA at 1.3238. If the actual figures disappoint the market, the pair will rise above the 1.3271 level. The next resistance for the pair will be placed at 1.3289.

Oil prices are consolidating ahead of the release of crude oil inventories. According to the forecast, the number of barrels held in inventory by commercial firms will decline by 2.1 million. Bigger fall will push the oil prices higher. The first resistance for WTI’s price will lie at $59.42. After that, pay attention to the $59.85, $60.5 and $60.86 levels. In case of an alternative scenario, the first support will lie at $58.76. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the $58.4 and $57.72 levels.

Key levels for Brent’s bulls are placed at $64.6, $65.2 and $65.76. In case of the fall, bears will target support levels at $63.46 and $62.9 (50-period SMA)

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 19

19.09.2019

Key events ahead:

BOE monetary policy summary – 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT) time

US Philly Fed manufacturing index – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The European trading session will be highlighted by the events for the British pound. Traders will pay attention to the BOE meeting at 14:00 MT. This is the last interest rate decision by the bank before the current Brexit deadline set on October 31st. After the inflation rate fell yesterday to the lowest levels since the end of 2016 (below the BOE target rate of 2%), it would be interesting to hear the hints on the possible slash in the interest rates in the upcoming months.

At the moment, GBP/USD is trading within the triangle pattern on H4. If the GBP is supported, the pair will break the upper border at 1.2503. The next resistance levels will lie at 1.2517, 1.2537 and 1.2555. In case of the pound’s weakness, the cable will slide below the 1.2457 level (lower border of the triangle). If this level is broken, the further support levels will lie at 1.2438 and 1.2422. Strong bearish pressure will pull the pair even lower to the 1.2391 level.

On H4, EUR/USD has risen back from the lower border of the triangle and has tested its upper border near the 1.1067 level. If the USD is supported by the Philly Fed manufacturing index, the pair will fall to the 100-period SMA towards the support at 1.1035. After that, the next key level will lie at 1.1014. If the USD is weak, the break of the 1.1067 level will be inevitable. The next resistance levels will be placed at 1.1074 and 1.1087. (200-period SMA)

The Japanese yen strengthened during the Asian trading session. As a result, USD/JPY tested the 50-period SMA. However, the pair has inched higher towards the resistance at 108.24. Further resistance levels lie at 108.37, 108.47 and 108.63. Pay attention to them if the USD is supported. In case of risk-off sentiment, the pair will fall below the 107.91 level. Further support levels in focus will lie at 107.79 and 107.61.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 20

20.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the FOMC member Williams – 15:15 MT (12:15 GMT) time

Canadian core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Rosengren – 18:20 MT (15:20 GMT) time

US-China trade talks

The British pound was supported today after the interview given by the European president Jean Claude Juncker, where he said that the Brexit deal would happen. The cable spiked above the 1.25 level and has tested the resistance at 1.2557. If this level is broken, the next resistance levels will lie at 1.2577 and 1.2598. In case of any uncertainties, bears will be looking for the fall towards the support levels at 1.2506, 1.2476 and 1.2444. On H4, we can see a bearish divergence with MACD, which may signal about a possible short-term reversal

USD/CAD is awaiting the release of Canada’s core retail sales. On H4, the pair managed to stick above the 200-period SMA. At the moment of writing, USD/CAD has been moving upwards to the resistance at 1.3277. If the release disappoints the market, this level will be broken. The next resistance will be placed at 1.3289. In case of an alternative scenario, the pair will slide back below the 200-period SMA to the support at 1.3253. The next support will be placed at 1.3246 (100-period SMA).

EUR/USD is consolidating between the 1.1058 resistance level and the 1.1037 support level on H4. If bulls manage to break their way to the upside, the next resistance levels will lie at 1.1068-1.1074. On the other hand, bears will pay attention to the break of the 1.1037 level. After that, the next support will lie at 1.1014.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

23.09.2019

Speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi (Mon, 16:00 MT (13:00 GMT) time) – If the ECB president is hawkish, the EUR will be supported;

CB consumer confidence for the US (Tue, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time) – Higher-than-expected figures will push the USD up;

RBNZ rate statement (Wed, 5:00 MT (2:00 GMT) time) – Analysts anticipate the Reserve bank of New Zealand to keep its interest rate unchanged at 1%. Traders will pay attention to the outline of the statement. If the RBNZ is hawkish, the NZD will rise.

US final GDP (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the USD will go up.

US core durable goods orders and personal spending (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – Higher-than-expected figures will boost the USD

Hot news

After the trade talks between the US and China last week, we heard some positive comments on that matter from both sides.

Oil prices jumped on the news that the reparation of the Saudi plant would likely take months.

The EU’s Donald Tusk will meet the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson this week. However, judging by the tone of the Prime Minister, he does not expect any breakthrough this week. Also this week the Supreme Court will rule on Boris Johnson’s suspension of Parliament. The uncertainties affect the GBP.