Forex basics and my trading with FBS

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Weekly Cryptonews

24.05.2019

Jeff Adams, the Senior Sales Manager for Huobi Global: “We see a lot of appetites out there from players in more established financial markets when it comes to digital assets but many are still uncomfortable jumping into unregulated trading environments…”

The price for Bitcoin keeps trading near the strong resistance at $8,130. If bullish pressure in the market increases, the next resistance will lie at $8,450. If it weakens, bears will meet the first support at $7,670. In case of the fall, the next key level will lie at $7,120. The price for the oldest cryptocurrency formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, as a result, the break may be either up or down. RSI is moving close to the overbought zone.

What news has been happening in the crypto market this week?

New releases:

WhatsApp messenger launched a bot which allows sending BTC, ETH, LTC and ZTX token to other users.
According to the investigation by the Block, Tether invested in different fiat assets and bitcoin. It means, that USDT is backed by BTC.
Ethereum foundation will invest $19 million to the development of Ethereum 2.0 and $8 million to the support of the current blockchain of ETH.
Grayscale Investments got the approval from the FINRA regulator on listing shares of the Ethereum-trust in the non-exchange market. Its price will depend on the market value of the ETH.
AT&T, the world’s largest telecommunications company, became the first major U.S. mobile carrier to accept Bitcoin for payment.

Regulations:

US Security and Exchange Commission once again postponed the approval of Bitcoin-ETF by VanEck and SolidX. At the same time, the NYSE Arca stock exchanged applied for the launch of Bitcoin-ETF, too.
US tax regulator is working on the new rules on paying taxes from crypto assets.
During the crypto fraud case, the court approved that Chinese citizens may own and exchange Bitcoin.

Are you kidding?

Craig Wright, the famous Faketoshi, registered the rights on White Paper and the code of Bitcoin. However, this fact does not make him the creator of BTC, as it has not been checked.

Current prices (last update 19:20 MT time):

Bitcoin: $8,187

DASH: $162.05

Litecoin: $103.35

Ethereum: $256.16

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

27.05.2019

Rate statement by the Bank of Canada (Wed, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)) – The changes to the current interest rate are not expected, but the central bank may throw some hints on the possible changes of its monetary policy in the future.

Australian building approvals and private capital expenditure (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the number of building approvals will increase by 0.1%. As for the level of private capital expenditure, it is expected to advance by 0.5%. Higher figures will support the Australian dollar.

US Preliminary GDP (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – The GDP growth of the US is forecast to rise by 3.1%. If the actual level is higher, the USD will get stronger.

Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Fri, 4:00 MT (1:00 GMT)) – The indicator will affect not only the Chinese yuan but also the risk sentiment in the market, due to the escalation of the US-China trade tensions. According to the forecasts, it will decline to 49.9 points. Higher figures will push the CNH and the risk-weighted currencies higher.

Canadian GDP (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 MT)) – If the actual level of indicator is higher than the forecast, the CAD will rise.

Hot news:

During the weekend, the US president Donald Trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for trade talks. Today they are going to discuss the key issues. According to Trump’s comments on twitter, the sides have made significant progress in trade negotiations, but the final deal is expected to be reached after July's elections in Japan.

The trade tension between the US and China have intensified. Up to now, we anticipate extra 25% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports to the US and on $60 billion of US exports to China at the end of this week. At the same time, Donald Trump said that the US was not ready to make a trade deal with China.

After the European elections last week, the EU leaders will decide who will be the next president of the European Central Bank after Mario Draghi. During the EU summit dinner on May 28, they are going to discuss the top political appointments.

Theresa May resigned from her post as a Prime Minister on Friday. The leaders who may replace Theresa May, including Boris Jonson and Dominic Raab, say they want the EU to reopen the negotiations on the UK withdrawal agreement.

 

[SebsCubs]

Will the Bank of Canada support the CAD?

27.05.2019

The Bank of Canada will publish its monetary policy statement and make the rate announcement on May 29, at 17:00 MT.

The central bank won’t make changes to the current interest rate, which is set at 1.75%. However, the BOC governor Stephen Poloz may throw some hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy. Last time, Mr. Poloz was more positive about the economic outlook of the country, than during the previous meetings. His tone supported the loonie. If he provides any hawkish hints this time, the CAD will rise.

• If the BOC is hawkish, the CAD will go up;

• If the CAD is dovish, the CAD will go down.

 

[SebsCubs]

The important release for China may shake the markets

29.05.2019

China will release the level of its manufacturing PMI on May 31, at 4:00 MT time. This is a leading indicator of economic health. As China is one of the biggest economies in the world, its data tends to affect the global markets. As a result, higher figures of the indicator affect positively not only the Chinese yuan but also the risk sentiment in the market. Riskier environment increases the demand on the risk-weighted currencies, such as the AUD, the NZD, and the emerging market currencies. On the flipside, the lower actual level of manufacturing PMI for China pulls the Chinese currency down and hurts the risk sentiment in the market. The risk-off sentiment makes the risky assets go down as well.

• If the actual level of manufacturing PMI is higher than the forecasts, the risk sentiment will be on;

• If the actual level of manufacturing PMI is lower than the forecasts, the risk sentiment will be off.

 

[SebsCubs]

Trading strategies for the short-term timeframes!

Some traders prefer to trade on the longer-term timeframes. It helps them to check the positions no more than once a day and have more time for making a final decision. However, if you prefer to be a more aggressive trader and earn money within a day, you will probably try trading on the H1 and H4 charts. In this article, we will explain the most popular strategies for this kind of trading.

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[SebsCubs]

The USD/MXN has risen by more than 5,900 pips on tariff threats

31.05.2019

President Donald Trump announced the 5% tariffs on Mexican goods until the country stops immigrants from entering the US. The tariffs will be applied on June 10. The tariffs could rise to 25% on October 1.

The USD/MXN has risen above the resistance at 19.67. The next resistance lies at 19.97. On the flipside, bears need to pull the pair below the 19.3686, 19.2618 and 19.1417 pivot levels to take back their strength. The support lies at 19.0349.

 

[SebsCubs]

Will the Reserve bank of Australia weaken the AUD?

03.06.2019

The Reserve bank of Australia will make its statement and announce the official rate on June 4, at 7:30 MT time.

Analysts anticipate the RBA to cut its interest rate from 1.5% to 1.25%. The chances of a rate cut are high as the Australian economy keeps weakening. The slowdown of the GDP growth, falling house prices and the rise of unemployment are among the key reasons behind the anticipated decision by the RBA. Despite the high chances of the rate cut, the central bank may keep its interest rate unchanged. If it happens, the Australian dollar may get positive momentum.

• If the RBA keeps its interest rate unchanged, the Australian dollar will rise;

• If the RBA cut its interest rate, the Australian dollar will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

Grandfather of crypto falls below the $8,000 level after consolidation

04.06.2019

Bears finally took over the cryptomarket and pulled the price for BTC down. At the moment, it is testing the support at $7,970. If this level is broken, bears will face with the next key level at $7,660. If bulls take over, they will need to push the price for Bitcoin above the $8,500 level to the next resistance at $8,800.

 

[SebsCubs]

The volatility for the USD is expected

05.06.2019

The level of non-farm payrolls, also known as non-farm employment change or NFP will be out on June 7, at 15:30 MT time.

The indicator represents the change in the number of employed people during the previous month without farmers. Traders pay huge attention to it, as it makes the US dollar highly volatile after the release. Also, we recommend you not to underestimate the unemployment rate and the level of average hourly earnings. These indicators are released at the same time as the non-farm payrolls and they tend to affect the USD as well. Last time, the NFP outperformed the forecasts. It advanced by 263 thousand jobs (vs. 181 thousand expected). However, bulls could not hold their positions due to the lower-than-expected average hourly earnings (0.2% vs. 0.3%). This time the employment data may lead to a different outcome.

• If NFP is higher than the expectations, the USD will rise;

• If NFP is lower than the expectations, the USD will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

The euro has risen above the 100-day MA on the comments by Mario Draghi

More at: http://bit.ly/2XvRXgP

06.06.2019

During today's press conference, the ECB president said that the data was "somewhat" better than the expectations in the first quarter. The euro jumped higher on his comments, targeting the next resistance at 1.1321. If his further comments are more dovish, EUR/USD will fall back below the 1.1253 level to the support at 1.1214.

 

[SebsCubs]

Another chance for the USD

10.06.2019

The level of retail sales and core retail sales will be out on June 14, at 15:30 MT time.

The indicator of retail sales represents the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. Its core level excludes the sales of autos due to their high volatility. Last time both of the indicators came out lower than the forecasts. The level of retail sales declined to 0.2% (vs. the anticipated increase to 0.2%), while its core level advanced only by 0.1% (vs. the forecast of 0.7%). If this time the situation changes, the USD will rise.

• If the actual levels of indicators are higher than the expectations, the USD will rise;

• If the actual levels of indicators are lower than the expectations, the USD will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on June 11

11.06.2019

On Tuesday, the improved market sentiment supported risky assets such as stocks, emerging-market currencies, and crude oil.

Oil benchmarks have been trying to recover on the improved market sentiment. Talks that OPEC and its allies would continue its program of oil output cuts supported the oil market. However, the effect was limited. WTI moved up but with small gains. Up to now, the oil benchmark has been trading near 53.60. The resistance is located at 54.48. However, the downward pressure is high. If the benchmark is not able to break above 54.48. We will see a decline to 51.70. Brent rose less than WTI. The benchmark reached a high at 62.86. However, bears were stronger and Brent moved down. The support is located at 60.60.


The Chinese yuan succeeds to appreciate against the USD. On Friday, USD/CNH reached the highest level of the year at 6.9613. However, the improved sentiment encouraged Chinese currency. Up to now, the pair has been trading near 6.9242 moving to the support at 6.9165. A close below this level will lead to the further appreciation of the CNH. The next level to touch is 6.90. In the case of risk aversion, USD/CNH will turn around and will move towards 6.9470 targeting the top near 6.9614.


The Mexican peso keeps gaining strength against the US dollar. USD/MXN has been moving down for the 3 days in a row. If bears manage to pull the pair below 50-day simple MA at 19.08, we will see a further decline to 19.02. If the pair rebounds, we may anticipate a rise towards 19.24. The next resistance is at 19.3120.

 

[SebsCubs]

Risk management

Risk management is the key element of Forex trading. It’s better to understand this simple fact rather sooner than later and put a lot of efforts into mastering this science. By definition, risk management is the identification, analysis, assessment, control, and avoidance, minimization, or elimination of unacceptable risks. The risk that exists for Forex traders is simple to understand: it’s the ever-present risk of a bad trade that is closed with a loss.

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[SebsCubs]

MARKET UPDATES

13.06.2019

The Australian dollar weakened because of the bigger-than-expected unemployment rate figure. On H4, AUD/USD has been targeting the first support at 0.69. A close below this level will provoke a further decline to 0.6870 with a test of 0.6887. RSI and Stochastic Oscillators are in the oversold area, the rise of the pair will be confirmed as soon as RSI crosses the 30 level bottom up and Stochastic oscillator crosses the signal line. In the case of the rebound, the important resistance is located at 0.6933.

The Swiss franc rose on the Swiss National Bank statement. Although, the central bank kept the interest rate on hold and didn’t provide any hints on a soon increase, comments about the possible weakness of the euro and the USD supported the Swiss currency. As a result, USD/CHF fell. On H4, the pair reached the support at 0.9921 (50-period MA) but rebounded. The first resistance is located at 0.9956, a break above this level will signal a continuation of the upward movement. However, the resistance is strong and we may see a re-test of 0.9921. A break below this level will lift risks of the decline to 0.9888.

Brent has risen significantly after news about oil tankers being attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Up to now, the oil benchmark has been moving to the first resistance at 63.73 with a test of 63.

 

[SebsCubs]

Heads up to the FOMC statement

17.06.2019

The Federal Open Market Committee will make its statement and announce the official rate on June 19, at 21:00 MT time.

Despite the demands by US President Donald Trump to cut the interest rate, no changes to it are expected. Now, policymakers keep the interest rate at 2.5%. However, we may find out the hints on the possibility of a rate cut later this year. Wednesday’s statement will show how the US-China trade war and recent weaker economic data affect the Fed decisions.

• If the Fed is hawkish, the USD will go up;

• If the Fed is dovish, the USD will go down.

 

[SebsCubs]

The new stimulus for the euro? Mario Draghi sent EUR/USD lower on the dovish
hints.

18.06.2019

During today’s speech, the ECB President Mario Draghi made remarks on using a rate cut as a primary tool for an economic stimulus.
On the H4, EUR/USD fell to the support at 1.1179 during the European trading hours. At the moment, the pair is correcting to the upside. The first resistance is placed at 1.1211. If the positive momentum is short-lived, the pair will break the 1.1179 level and try to test the support at 1.1165.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on June 19

19.06.2019

Key events ahead:

British CPI – 11:30 MT time

Forecast: 2%

Canadian CPI – 15:30 MT time

Forecast: +0.1%

Speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi – 17:00 MT time

FOMC statement – 21:00 MT time

After the plunge of the euro on the dovish comments by the ECB President, EUR/USD has been consolidating near the support at 1.1187 on the H4. If bears manage to break this level, the next support levels will lie at 1.1173 and 1.1165. Bulls need to push the pair higher to the resistance at 1.1209 to confirm their strength. The next resistance will lie at 1.1221. Traders will focus their attention to the fresh comments by the ECB president later today and to the FOMC meeting at 21:00 MT.


US President Donald Trump had a telephone conversation with Chinese President Xi yesterday. The leaders agreed to meet during the G20 Summit in Japan. The news increased the risk appetite in the market. The risk-on sentiment pushed the oil prices and the Canadian dollar up.

The price for WTI retested the $54.28 level on the news. On the daily chart, from the upside, the next resistance levels are placed at $55.71 and $57.60. Bears need to push the pair back to the support at $50.78 to confirm their strength. The next key level lies at $48.47.


Brent, in its turn, retested the upper border of the consolidation range at $62.66. The next resistance is placed at $63.6. In the case of the fall, we need to keep an eye on the lower border of the consolidation at $57.6. The next support is at $57.5.


On the H4, USD/CAD bounced from the 200-period SMA at 1.3427 and plunged below the 100-period SMA. The pair has tested the lows below the 1.3373 level. If bears continue to drive the loonie down, the next support will lie at 1.3357. On the other hand, pay attention to the resistance at 1.3409. The next level for bulls will lie at 1.3419. Next, the CPI release and the FOMC meeting will likely determine the direction for the pair.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on June 20

20.06.2019

Key events ahead:

The BOE monetary policy summary – 14:00 MT time

Yesterday, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted the possibility of a rate cut as early as next month. His impatient tone pushed the EUR/USD pair higher. On H4, bulls successfully broke the 50-period SMA. At the moment the EUR is testing the resistance at 1.1294. The next resistance lies at 1.1316. If this level is broken, the next level in focus for bulls will be placed close to the descending trendline at 1.1344. From the downside, we need to pay attention to the support at 1.1257. As soon as it's broken, the next support will lie at 1.1234 (100-period SMA). After that, bears will target the zone between 1.1224 and 1.1213.

USD/JPY fell on the dovish Fed, too. On H4, the pair found the support at 107.64. If the USD continues to weaken, the next support will lie at 107.29. On the flipside, we need to pay attention to the resistance levels at 108.3 and 108.64.

GBP/USD has been supported ahead of the BOE monetary policy summary. At the moment, it is trading near the resistance at 1.2710 on the H4. The next resistance levels lie at 1.2749 and 1.2780. If the GBP is supported today by the comment of Mark Carney, the next key level will lie at 1.2837. Bears need to keep an eye on the support levels at 1.2651 (100-period SMA), 1.2612 and 1.2557.

The Australian dollar has been rising on the hawkish comments by the RBA governor. Right now, the aussie is rising towards the resistance at 0.6931 (100-period SMA). If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed between 0.6958 and 0.6966. Bears need to pull AUD/USD below 0.6913-0.6905 to confirm their strength. In that case, the next key level for them will lie at 0.6873.

 

[SebsCubs]

Weekly Cryptonews

21.06.2019

Brian Kelly, chief executive of investment management firm BKCM:

Bitcoin is ... digital gold. And, in my opinion, it’s probably a lot better than gold, but there is no trusted third party involved, and that’s the huge difference.

This week was super optimistic for Bitcoin bulls. Many positive events in the crypto market, including the announcement of Facebook’s crypto project Libra, pushed the digital asset higher. At the moment, it is looking forward to the breakout of the $9,800 level on the daily chart. If it happens, the next resistance will lie at $10,700. As far as it is broken, the further rise may be limited by the $11,420-$11,777 levels. From the downside, we need to pay attention to the $8,940, $8,664 and $7,970 levels. Awesome oscillator is moving upwards, which is a good signal of the possible further rise.

Regulations:

·The South Korean crypto regulator promised to pay damages to users in case of hackers’ attacks or system lags.

·The Brazilian authorities obligated local and international crypto exchange platforms to share almost all of the users’ transactions.


Crypto announces:

·The Ethereum developer Justin Drake announced that the switch to Ethereum 2.0 was planned to start on January 3, 2020.

·On Tuesday, Facebook's crypto project Libra was presented. Mark Zuckerberg introduced a new website, where you can find the white paper of a project. After the critics by different governments, the developers noted that the project would share with authorities the users' data. Also, Libra Investment token was introduced. The launch of Facebook's cryptocurrency is expected next year.

·Litecoin Foundation together with Bibox exchange platform and Ternio startup will release a debit crypto card.

·CEO of TRON announced the update of the network to the new version called Odyssey 3.6, to increase the protection and the possibility of dApps creation.
New developments:

·100 of leading Japanese producers, including Mitsubishi Electric and Yaskawa Electric, agreed to launch a collaborative blockchain system for the data exchange.

·The IT department of Samsung launches products for using blockchain in different types of business.

·Firefox developers detected and eliminated the vulnerability which could be used for stealing crypto. It’s recommended to update the browser to the latest version.

·The leading international consulting company PwC launched the Halo instrument for providing guarantee services in crypto payments.

·Japanese messenger LINE can get a resolution to create its own crypto exchange platform soon.
Current prices (last update 15:16 MT time):

Bitcoin $9,835

DASH $165.78

Ethereum $233.05

Litecoin: $138.94

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

24.06.2019

Speech by the Fed chair Jerome Powell (Tue, 20:00 MT (17:00 GMT time)) – After the dovish Federal Reserve, it would be interesting to hear the fresh comments by Jerome Powell.

RBNZ rate statement (Wed, 5:00 MT (2:00 GMT time)) – The Reserve bank of New Zealand will keep its interest rate on hold this time, but we will pay attention to the hints on the future changes to its monetary policy.

US final GDP growth (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT time)) – According to the forecasts, the level of final GDP growth for the United States will advance by 3.1%. Higher figures will be supportive for the USD.

G20 meetings (Friday-Saturday) – The event is highly important as US president Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet there to discuss trade issues. The positive outcome of the meeting will set the risk mood in the market.

Canadian GDP growth (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) – The indicator is expected to increase by 0.2%. If the actual figures are higher, the Canadian dollar will rise.

Hot news:

As the market patiently anticipates the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents during the G20 Summit, the risk sentiment in the market has got softer on the comments by the Chinese Commerce Ministry. According to his words, both countries should be willing to make compromises.

After the victory of the opposition party in Istanbul mayor election, the Turkish lira has strengthened. This is a big hit to Erdogan’s ruling party.

The price for Bitcoin has tested the levels above $11,000 during the weekend.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo promised significant sanctions on Iran soon. It pushed the oil prices higher.