Forex basics and my trading with FBS

[SebsCubs]

European stock markets are impacted by India-Pakistan clash



27.02.2019

On Wednesday, European stock markets started lower after fresh hostilities showed up between Pakistan and India, making Asian assets dive and also pushing traders into safe havens, including the Japanese yen.

The STOXX 600 lost 0.5%. As for the key regional indexes, all of them found themselves in the red. American stock futures for the S&P 500 lost 0.1%.

Previously, Pakistan told it had delivered air strikes in Indian-controlled Kashmir and also put down two Indian jets.

Pakistan and Indian currencies and bonds headed south, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan declined by 0.15% because the threat of conflict between the nuclear-armed countries increased.

Besides this, financial markets were monitoring the US-North Korean summit, expected to burst out in Hanoi on Wednesday. American leader is going to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, with America urging the isolated country have its nuclear weapons program dismantled.

The heightened geopolitical risks helped a number of assets considered safer than shares. For instance, one of them is the Japanese yen that soared versus the evergreen buck.

The evergreen buck kept to a three-week minimum after on Tuesday Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeated that the major US bank had shifted to a more patient stance as for changes to interest rates.

Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the UK currency kept soaring after Prime Minister Theresa May gave British lawmakers a chance to vote on postponing Brexit. The UK pound was worth $1.3274, having ascended to $1.3288 on Tuesday, which is its highest outcome for five months.

Crude prices went up following a report that American crude inventories had slipped and producer club OPEC reportedly stuck with its supply cuts notwithstanding pressure from Donald Trump.

As for gold, it tumbled by 0.17% hitting $1,326.24.

 

[SebsCubs]

Canadian GDP growth may push the CAD up

28.02.2019

The level of monthly GDP for Canada is expected on March 1, at 15:30 MT time.

The level of GDP growth is the broadest measure of economic activity, which indicates economic health. Last time analysts forecast GDP growth to increase by 0.1%. The actual level came out in line with the analysts' expectations. If this time the release is higher than the forecast, the CAD will be supported.

• If GDP growth is higher than expected, the CAD will rise;

• If GDP growth is lower than expected, the CAD will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

S&P concludes session above 2,800

01.03.2019

On Friday, the S&P 500 boasted solid gains, closing above a major level and neglecting data that indicated decelerating American economic as well as global surge as expectations of a US-China trade agreement kept risk appetite alive.

Eventually, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by nearly 0.43%. As for the S&P 500, it managed to gain by approximately 0.69%, concluding above 2,800 for the first time since November 8. Besides this, the Nasdaq Composite rallied by 0.83%.

The American economy kept demonstrating signs of deceleration.

As a matter of fact, in December, consumer spending in the United States, accounting for more than two-thirds of the country’s economic activity, decreased by 0.5%. As for February’s ISM manufacturing data, it confounded hopes for 55.5.

The dive in personal spending actually represented the most impressive slump since 2009.

The consumer consumption demonstrating considerable worries going into year-end turns out to be more than sufficient to keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines for the time being.

The dismal data arose after the Chinese economy demonstrated a dive in factory activity for the third consecutive month. However, the tempo of the deceleration had speeded down, backing hopes a bottom was already forming.

Furthermore, sentiment on Wall Street was also backed by signs that Chinese and American negotiators are very close to coming to a compromise.

Larry Kudlow told that the agreements achieved the previous week show considerable progress on forced technology transfer, IP theft as well as cyber interference.

In addition to trade, the financial markets were also driven by an ascend in energy shares notwithstanding a dive in crude prices on signs of weakness in the Chinese economy.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important things this week will bring us!

04.03.2019

RBA rate statement (Tue, 5:30 MT (3:30 GMT) time) – The RBA Governor Philip Lowe is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. However, the comments by him and the members of the Australian central bank may provide volatility to the Australian dollar.

Australian GDP q/q (Wed, 2:30 MT (00:30 GMT) time) – According to analysts, the level of GDP growth for Australia will increase by 0.5%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the Australian currency.

BOC rate statement (Wed, 17:00 MT (15:00 GMT) time) – We anticipate no changes to the current level of interest rate (1.75%). The bank of Canada governor may throw some hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy. If the BOC is hawkish, the Canadian dollar will rise.

ECB rate statement and press conference (Thu, 14:45 and 15:30 MT (12:45 and 13:30 GMT) time) – Here we also do not expect changes to the current interest rate, but the ECB president Mario Draghi may comment on the further changes to the current monetary policy. If the European central bank is more confident in the current conditions, the euro will rise.

US Non-farm employment change (NFP) (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) – Analysts forecast the level of NFP to increase by 185 thousand jobs. At the same time, the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to increase by 0.3% and the level of unemployment change is expected to decline to 3.9%. Higher figures for NFP and average hourly earnings and lower figures for unemployment rate will boost the USD.

Hot topics:

Pro-Brexiters in the Conservative party of Great Britain suggested several conditions for supporting Theresa May’s plan at the Parliament.

Reportedly, China and the US are in the final stage of getting a trade deal. China offers to lower tariffs on American products and the US considers to remove sanctions against Chinese products.

During the weekend Trump said that strong USD and rate hikes were hurting the economy.

 

[SebsCubs]

Currency cross pairs: how to trade them?


Do you know that opportunities to earn money are not limited by trading your favorite EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY? Furthermore, a currency pair may be formed without the US dollar? In this article, we are going to introduce you to the so-called ""currency cross pair"". You will find out the special features of these pairs and learn how to trade them and to avoid mistakes. This information is not investment advice.

Learn with all details

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[SebsCubs]

China’s exports demonstrate the biggest dive for two years

06.03.2019

In February, China's exports went down following a shocking rebound in January. As for imports, they declined for a third month in a row, backing anxiety over whether China and America can tackle deep differences over trade.

In February, China's exports are anticipated to have slumped by 4.8% from 2018 after January’s 9.1% leap.

Such a tumble would be the greatest since December 2016. It drops a hint at a further weakening in global demand.

In February, imports are anticipated to have gone down by 1.4% from 2018 in contrast with January’s 1.5% dip.

Firmer-than-anticipated imports could enable some China watchers to ascertain that the Chinese economy is demonstrating signs of bottoming out responding to a pack of stimulus measures last year.

However, most experts usually caution that China's data early in 2018 can be extremely distorted by the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays because at that time some businesses speed up their shipments or scale back output prior to shutting for a extended break.

As follows from factory surveys, imports and exports are going to remain dismal in the nearer future, with February's official indicator indicating that export orders tumbled to their weakest value since the global financial downtime.

In February, China's total trade surplus tumbled steeply to $26.38 billion from $39.16 billion in January.

In response to soaring global and domestic pressure, this week the Chinese cabinet uncovered a 2019 economic surge objective of 6.0%-6.5%, down from an actual 6.6% last year, which appears to be the slowest tempo for almost 30 years.

On Tuesday, Premier Li Keqiang told parliament that China is going to shore up the Chinese economy through billions of dollars in extra tax cuts as well as infrastructure spending. What’s more, the Chinese government will decrease real interest rates.

 

[SebsCubs]

Evergreen buck rallies to three-month maximums

07.03.2019

On Thursday, the evergreen buck jumped to three-month peaks versus its counterparts against the backdrop of a dive in the common currency after the ECB came up with the alarm on euro-area surge and pushed back its hopes for a rate lift.

Gauging the greenback’s purchasing potential versus its major rivals the USD index shot up by 0.68% being worth 97.45.

The currency pair EUR/USD went down by 0.77% showing $1.1217 after the ECB pushed back its hopes for a rate lift to the end of 2019, diminished its surge objective for this year from 1.7% to 1.1% and also detailed fresh stimulus measures.

Mario Draghi, ECB governor came up with a dismal assessment of the euro zone economy, telling that a sizeable moderation in surge would proceed in 2019.

In addition to this, GBP/USD went down by 0.61% ending up with $1.3089 against the backdrop of worries that the Brexit deadlock will resume after the European bloc neglected Britain’s latest proposals on the Irish backstop.

In Brussels, British Attorney General Geoffrey Cox came up with the proposals, but they were neglected. The European bloc has provided Cox with time until Friday to have the revised proposals submitted, referring to remarks from European diplomats.

However, many experts have told that the March 29 Brexit deadline will be most probably postponed due to the fact Prime Minister Theresa May won’t win concessions from the European bloc that British lawmakers demand to vote in favor of her withdrawal agreement on March 12.

In addition to this, the currency pair USD/JPY headed south by about 0.19% concluding the trading session at Y111.54. As for USD/CAD, it soared by 0.11% showing C$1.3455.

 

[SebsCubs]

American stocks keep diving

08.03.2019

On Friday, American shares kept diving for the fifth day after dismal British jobs data in February contributed to fears over decelerating global surge, which was driven by a steep dive in China's exports as well as a prolonged deceleration in the eurozone.

Meanwhile, last month, the American economy generated no more than 20,000 in contrast with hopes that nonfarm payrolls would surge by 180,000. The given data managed to overshadow unemployment rate that dived back below 4% along with the best annual wage surge since 2009.

A common gauge of the health of the American economy, the Dow Jones Transports index headed south by 1.60%, which is its steepest outcome for the last 11 losing marathons.

Fears about global surge escalated after exports in China, the world's number two economy, demonstrated the most impressive dive for three years last month that generated rumors of a trade meltdown.

It shows up on the heels of the ECB downgrading surge estimates and disclosing another round of stimulus.

The technology sector headed south by 0.88% and appeared to be the greatest drag on the S&P 500. As for Facebook, Apple, Netflix, and Amazon, they sank 0.7%-2.5%.

ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed south by 0.75% demonstrating 25,281.34. As for the S&P 500, it slipped by 0.93% hitting 2,723.25. The Nasdaq Composite decreased by approximately 0.90% ending up with 7,354.61.

The energy sector went down by about 2.44% because crude prices went down by 2%.

Aside from that, ExxonMobil inched down by 2%, while Chevron Corp sank by 1%.

In addition to this, Costco Wholesale Corp rallied by 4.56%, which is the most impressive outcome on the S&P.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important things this week will bring us!

11.03.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales (Mon, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – According to analysts, the level of retail sales will remain the same. At the same time, its core level (excluding automobiles) is forecast to advance by 0.4%. Higher-than-expected figures will support the USD.

British GDP and manufacturing production (Tue, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT) time) – Both of the indicators are anticipated to rise by 0.2%. If the actual levels of indicators are higher, the British pound will get positive momentum.

US CPI and core CPI (Tue, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – Here, we also anticipate the advance of 0.2% for both headline and core indicators. The greater levels will be appreciated by the USD bulls.

US core durable goods orders and PPI (Wed, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – The level of core durable goods orders is going to rise by 0.1%, according to forecasts. The forecast for the producer price index is also positive and expected to increase by 0.2%. Let's see if the actual data will make the USD rise.

BOJ monetary policy statement (Fri, tentative) – The most dovish central bank will keep its interest rate unchanged at -0.10%. Moreover, the BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda mentioned the further easing of its monetary policy if it's needed. Any unexpected hawkish hints will support the JPY.

Hot topics:

It’s all about Brexit: the British Prime Minister Theresa May is going to face another vote tomorrow at the Parliament. The hopes of backing the current Brexit deal on time are fading, as Theresa May rejected the latest offer from the European Union during this weekend. The forecasts for tomorrow’s vote are not optimistic. According to the latest news, the British prime minister plans to change tomorrow’s vote from meaningful to the provisional. This will provide her an opportunity to propose further changes to the deal. According to the current scenario, if the British PM faces the defeat tomorrow, next day, on March 13, the British lawmakers will vote on a no-deal. If that vote is also rejected, the Parliament will vote on the extension of Brexit deadline on Thursday. Any uncertainties will be hurtful for the GBP during these days. On the other hand, positive news or the Brexit delay will push the GBP up.

The release of Chinese retail sales and industrial production data on Thursday may determine the market sentiment. Latest releases for China raised concerns on the possible slowdown of the second economy in the world. If the data is disappointing, it will result in risk-aversion.

On Friday, lawmakers will vote on a foreign investment law, which includes measures to protect the intellectual property of foreign companies in an effort to address the US concerns in the trade deal with China.

 

[SebsCubs]

Gold ascends on Brexit jitters

12.03.2019

On Tuesday, gold rallied because uncertainty over the latest developments in Britain’s departure from the EU backed safe haven demand and traders looked ahead for American inflation data to underpin the Fed’s pledge to remain on hold.

On the Comex exchange, April delivery gold futures went up by 0.41% concluding the trading session at $1,296.35 a troy ounce.

Many experts are assured that Theresa May will fail to achieve the votes required to underpin her withdrawal pact.

If UK lawmakers reject May's agreement, she has pledged a vote on Wednesday on whether to depart from the EU without a deal and, if they vote down it, then there will be a vote for a limited delay to Brexit.

On Tuesday, the uncertainty stimulated demand for the yellow metal even as volatility reigned in the Forex market.

As markets closely watch developments, traders will wait for American inflation data expected to show up at 8:30 AM ET.

Market experts actually expect American consumer prices to match February’s surge, underlining the case for the US major financial institution to stick with its current wait-and-see stance.

Financial markets were still skeptical that the Federal Reserve could proceed with its rate lift in 2019, especially after the employment report revealed poor job creation in February. By the way, Fed fund futures exclude such a move and place the likelihood at above 10% that the next move would be a cut.

Apparently, the pause in policy tightening is beneficial for the yellow metal because it decreases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

In addition to this, silver futures managed to rally by about 0.97% hitting $15.4223 a troy ounce.

Palladium surged by 1.28% showing $1,500.90.

As for copper, this metal inched up by up to 1.10% ending up with $2.933 a pound.

 

[SebsCubs]

Chart patterns

Have you ever felt like the universe is trying to communicate with you by sending various warning signs? Sometimes these signs from the unknown sources help you escape serious troubles or prevent irreparable damage to your belongings. Not every person has a gift to decode the cryptic messages the universe is sending him.

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[SebsCubs]

A chance to trade the Japanese currency

14.03.2019

The Bank of Japan will make its monetary policy statement and announce the interest rate on March 15. The bank won’t change its interest rate, but the comments by the bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda may shake the JPY. During the previous month, the BOJ governor threw hints on further monetary policy easing. This dovish outlook made the JPY suffer. Let’s see where the central bank will drive its currency.

• If the BOJ is hawkish, the JPY will move up;

• If the BOJ is dovish, the JPY will move down.

 

[SebsCubs]

Weekly Cryptonews

15.03.2019

Aaron Olmos, Venezuela’s most outspoken economist: “We are in a complicated situation because ‘good money’ – dollars or cryptocurrency – is available, but it is scarce because people tend to keep it, not spend it. On the other hand our ‘bad money,’ the Bolivar, it’s the one used by law.”

Let's look at how the oldest cryptocurrency has been performing this week. Bitcoin continues trading sideways between the $3,920 and $4,013 levels. Strong bullish pressure will help it to break the current resistance at $4,013 and move towards the next resistance at $4,058. Otherwise, if bears come into play, the digital asset will plunge below the support at $3,920. The next support for it lies at $3,808. If we look at indicators, ADX shows the strength of bears and parabolic SAR demonstrates the downward movement for Bitcoin.

Important updates:

Tether is not backed by US dollars anymore. The information on its official site says that stablecoin is backed by fiat currencies, cash equivalents, and other assets.

New announces:

Thai stock exchange plans to launch the platform for trading digital assets next year.

London stock exchange listed blockchain ETF by Invesco investment company.

Swiss stock exchange SIX Swiss plans to open trading of the ETP product connected to Ripple.

NASDAQ plans to launch the first full-stack cryptocurrency ecosystem in the first half of 2019.

A bill has been proposed in the state of Texas that would require a person receiving cryptocurrencies as payment to first “verify the identity of the person sending payment.”

Research:

70% of the crypto owners almost never used cryptocurrencies for payments in 2018.

If Facebook launches its stablecoin, the social network will earn from $3 to $19 billion.

Current prices (last update 14:42 MT time)

Bitcoin $4,021

DASH $93.32

Ethereum $138.02

Litecoin: $59.04

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important things this week will bring us!

18.03.2019

British CPI y/y (Wed, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT)) – The level of consumer inflation for Great Britain is expected to remain at the same level. If the actual figures are higher, the GBP will rise.

FOMC statement and Federal funds rate (Wed, 20:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time) – the rate hike is not expected, but the Fed Chair Jerome Powell may provide some comments, which will affect the volatility of the USD.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 2:30 MT (0:30 GMT)) – The level of employment change is anticipated to advance by 15.2 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the same level. Higher-than-expected employment change and the lower-than-expected unemployment rate will move the AUD up.

BOE monetary policy summary and official rate (Thu, 14:00 MT (12:00 GMT) time) – The Bank of England will keep its interest rate at 0.75%. The BOE governor Mark Carney may make some supportive comments for the GBP amid the Brexit uncertainties. Let’s see if the BOE will move the GBP even higher.

Canadian CPI and core retail sales m/m (Fri, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) –If the actual figures are higher, than the forecasts by analysts, the CAD will rise.

Hot topics:

This week we need to be ready for the fresh round of the Brexit news. The British Prime Minister Theresa May will have another Brexit vote at the Parliament. If the Parliament approves the deal this time, Theresa May will go to the European Summit in Brussels to request a short extension to Brexit until June 30. If the Parliament rejects the plan by the British Prime Minister this time, Theresa May will go to Brussels and ask for a much longer extension of the Brexit process. If the requests are rejected by the EU leaders during the European Summit on Thursday, the UK will leave the EU without a deal.

China’s commerce minister says the foreign trade situation becomes more uncertain for the country.

Reportedly, the Saudi oil minister says a possible decision to extend output cuts will be made in June.

 

[SebsCubs]

Will the Fed surprise the market?

19.03.2019

The Federal open market committee (FOMC) will make its monetary policy statement and announce the interest rate on March 20, 20:00 MT time. The rate hike will not happen this time, but the Federal Reserve will definitely shake the market with the hawkish comments. During the previous meeting, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the financial regulator would continue its patient approach in conducting the monetary policy. He also pointed out that the current level of the interest rate was appropriate for the US economy now. His dovish comments weakened the USD. Let’s see where the Fed is heading this time.

• If the FOMC is hawkish, the USD will go up;

• If the FOMC is dovish, the USD will go down.

 

[SebsCubs]

Greenback rallies on trade war jitters

20.03.2019

On Wednesday, the evergreen buck went up, attracting safe-haven bids following reports of further tension in US-China trade talks, although its profits were minor, with caution anticipated from the major US bank at its policy gathering later in the day.

Volatility in the Forex market has receded because of a dovish shift by key financial institutions, including the Fed.

The adverse impact on the evergreen buck from the pause in the major US bank’s interest-rate-lifting cycle has been somewhat affected by a cautious ECB having to deal with a struggling euro zone economy.

The Federal Reserve is generally expected to remain its interest rate on hold.

Bets on an interest rate cut have tacked on following Friday’s weaker-than-anticipated manufacturing data.

Notwithstanding the downbeat outlook, on Wednesday, the evergreen buck managed to rally versus the Australian dollar as well as Japan’s yen and the Canadian dollar.

As a matter of fact, the Australian dollar went down by 0.25% concluding the trading session at $0.7070.

Versus a basket of major counterparts, the evergreen buck rallied by 0.1% coming up with an outcome of 96.454 having demonstrated its lowest outcome since March 1 - 96.291.

The vast majority of currencies are still within well-trodden ranges before the Fed verdict.

Some experts told that the evergreen buck might not dive a lot on the Fed gathering because traders have already priced in the Fed scaling back its interest rate outlook.

On Wednesday, the common currency slumped a bit versus the evergreen buck demonstrating a reading of $1.1344.

As for the UK pound, it headed south by about 0.3% showing $1.3220 on fears that Theresa May’s request to postpone Brexit might fail.

 

[SebsCubs]

The volatility for the CAD is expected

21.03.2019

Canada will release the level of core retail sales and CPI on March 22, at 14:30 MT time. CPI represents the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. It's a very important indicator of inflation due to its early release and broad scope. CPI will be released at the same time with the level of core retail sales. Core retail sales show the change in the total value of sales, excluding automobiles. Together, they may provide great volatility to the loonie. Last time, CPI increased by 0.1% (lower than the forecasts), while core retail sales remained at the same level. Will the indicators outperform the forecasts this time?

• If the actual levels of indicators are higher, the CAD will go up;

• If the actual levels of indicators are lower, the CAD will go down.

 

[SebsCubs]

Scaling in and out of positions

Imagine, you opened your position, placed stop loss and take profit. What would be your next steps? Well, you may just sit and wait for further market moves. On the other hand, professional traders try to be more flexible while making their trading decisions by scaling in and out opened positions. If you want to trade more like a pro, then this article is for you! Let’s find out what is scaling and how you need to apply it correctly to manage your risks.

Learn with all details

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[SebsCubs]

5 important things this week will bring us!

25.03.2019

The dovish Fed, the slowdown in Europe and Brexit were among the things that moved the market last week. Let’s look at this week’s opportunities.

Rate statement by the Reserve bank of New Zealand (Wed, 03:00 MT (01:00 GMT)) – The rate hike is not expected, but the RBNZ governor Adrian Orr may throw some hints on the possible changes to the central bank’s monetary policy in future.

Speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi (Wed, 10:00 MT (8:00 GMT)) – The European Central bank’s president Mario Draghi will make his speech at the ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt. We may expect some supportive comments for the EUR.

Canadian trade balance (Wed, 14:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the trade deficit of Canada will likely show less decline, than in the previous month. If the actual figures are greater, the CAD will rise.

US final GDP q/q (Thu, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts expect the American GDP growth to reach 2.4%. If the actual number is higher, the USD will get positive momentum.

Canadian GDP m/m (Fri, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Last time the Canadian GDP growth declined by 0.1%. The projections for this week’s release will be published later. Higher-than-expected actual figures will boost the CAD.

Hot topics:

The Brexit tensions continue this week. After the huge protests in the UK during the weekend, the British prime minister started to lose the support amid the members of her own Cabinet. Today, the British lawmakers will vote on whether to come up with alternatives to the Brexit deal. The votes are expected to start at 00:00 MT time. If this motion is done successfully, lawmakers will take part in a series of indicative votes on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The trade talks between the US and China will resume this week in Beijing on March 28-29. A breakthrough in the negotiations will bring support to the risk-weighted assets. Up to now, the sides have been optimistic on reaching a deal soon.

Pay attention to the Boao forum which starts this Tuesday in China. The Chinese officials including Central Bank Governor Yi Gang and Finance Minister Liu Kun are going to speak at the conference. Their comments may affect the risk sentiment in the markets.

Turkey will hold its local elections on March 31. After the sudden plunge of the Turkish lira on Friday, the officials started investigations into JPMorgan Chase & Co. and other banks. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that bankers, which responsible for speculating against the currency would be punished.

 

[SebsCubs]

Is there any hope for the kiwi?


26.03.2019

The Reserve bank of New Zealand will make its rate statement and publish its official interest rate on March 27, at 3:00 MT time. The bank is not going to make any changes to its interest rate, but we need to pay attention to the tone of the statement. During the February's meeting, the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that the current interest rate would be kept at the current level through 2019 and 2020. Despite this dovish statement, he sounded optimistic about the economic outlook. As a result, the kiwi was boosted. Will it happen this time?

• If the RBNZ is positive, the NZD will rise.

• If the RBNZ is negative, the NZD will fall.