Forex Analysis by LiteForex

[LiteForexNews]

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair was in an upward correction after a significant fall of the previous week.
The pair is pressured by slowing Chinese economy, strengthening Dollar that found a significant support after the publication of strong macroeconomic statistics on the US labour market last Friday, and falling dairy prices.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a descending trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the negative zone while its volumes remain unchanged. ADX suggest a fall in the pair, DI lines directed down.
Support levels: 0.6505 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands, last week lows).
Resistance levels: 0.6593, 0.6679, 0.6715, 0.6771, 0.6834, 0.6859, 0.6881.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6540 with the target at 0.6510 and stop-loss at 0.6560. Validity – 1 day.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.6510 with the target at 0.6560 and stop-loss at 0.6500. Validity – 1 day.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: pair in correction

Current trend
The pair is in correction after a significant fall of the begging of the year.
The pair was supported by today’s data on Trade Balance from China that came out better than expectations and slightly calmed worries on the market regarding the Chinese economy.
At the same time, the pair remains under pressure amid strengthening US Dollar, falling commodities’ prices and still continuing crisis on the Chinese stock market.
Tomorrow attention needs to be paid to data on the Australian labour market for December. The Unemployment Rate is expected to increase from 5.8% to 5.9%.

Support and resistance
A breakout of the level of 0.7070 (ЕМА200 on the hourly chart, ЕМА50 on the 4-hour chart) would send the pair towards 0.7100 (December lows), 0.7145 (ЕМА200, ЕМА144 on the 4-hour chart), 0.7200 (upper border of a descending channel on the 4-hour chart).
On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic signal purchases, and start turning up on the daily chart as well.
Support levels: 0.6980, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7070, 0.7100, 0.7145, 0.7200, 0.7290.

Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.6970 with targets at 0.6910, 0.6880, 0.6810 and stop-loss at 0.7010.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 0.7080 with targets at 0.7110, 0.7145, 0.7200, 0.7300 and stop-loss at 0.7030.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
The EUR/USD pair continues strengthening.
Today, data on the labour market is due to be published in the US. Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to fall to 2.215 million that could support the US Dollar.
Also today, Fed’s Bullard speech is due regarding perspectives for the American economy. Experts do not expect interest rates to be mentions in the speech, thus strong reaction on the market is unlikely.

Support and resistance
In the short-term, the pair is expected to grow to its resistance at the level of 1.0965 where it is going to reverse down.
Support levels: 1.0714.
Resistance levels: 1.0965.

Trading tips
Open short positions from the level of 1.0965 with the target at 1.0825 and stop-loss at 1.1000.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair significantly strengthened amid falling US Dollar that was pressured after the publication of poor data on Jobless Claims in the US. At the same time, despite increased Home Loans in Australia, that usually supports the AUD the pair is falling today.
Today extra attention needs to be paid to data on Retail Sales in the US. According to forecasts, the index will fall to 0.0% that might pressure the USD.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a downward trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are slowly growing.
Support levels: 0.6935, 0.6910, 0.6880, 0.6830, 0.6800.
Resistance levels: 0.6983, 0.7015, 0.7068, 0.7135, 0.7194.

Trading tips
Open short positions after the price consolidation below the level of 0.6860 with the target at 0.6800 and stop-loss at 0.6890.
Long positions can be opened form the level of 0.6935 with the target at 0.7000 and stop-loss at 0.6900.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: pair is growing

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair strengthened.
The Euro was supported on Friday by poor macroeconomic statistics from the US, where Retail Sales for December fell by 0.1%, while economists predicted a zero change. Retail Sales excluding Autos shrank by 0.1%, against a forecasted growth of 0.2%. In addition, Industrial Production data showed a decline of 0.4%, instead of a predicted growth of 0.2%. December, thus, was the third consecutive month of the decline of the index.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally, while the price range tends to narrow. MACD is slowly growing and giving a very weak buy signal. Stochastic is turning horizontally as it significantly moved away from the overbought zone.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.0900 (local low), 1.0867, 1.0795 (7 January low), 1.0762, 1.0710 (5 January low), 1.0673, 1.0638, 1.0600.
Resistance levels: 1.0946 (local high), 1.1000 (psychologically important level), 1.1059 (15 December high), 1.1100, 1.1153.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price reverse near the level of 1.0867 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 1.1000 and stop-loss at 1.0800. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0867 with the target at 1.0710 and stop-loss at 1.0940. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The EUR/USD pair is trading below the key resistance level of 1.1000. The European currency remains under pressure from a range of fundamental factors.
France’s economy is facing difficulties and needs additional monetary support of about 2 billion euros, according to a preliminary estimate. Unemployment rate, which is more than 10%, and domestic security are seen as the key issues for the French government. At the same time, the President stated the current situation will not affect tax rate and amount of social benefits.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Consumer Price Index data, released in Germany. If the indicator comes in below 0.3%, ECB might have to introduce additional stimulus measures that will add pressure on the European currency.

Support and resistance
Support level: 1.0825.
Resistance level: 1.1000.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.1000 with the target at 1.1140 and stop-loss at 1.0950.
Short-term short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0850 with the target at 1.0800.

 

[LiteForexNews]

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend
The price of gold remains below the level of 1097.66 where it was trading on high volumes last Friday.
According to forecasts, production of gold is declining due to the absence of new fields that could lead in the long-term to increase in the price. In 2016, its output could shrink by 3%. In addition, the price is supported by instability in the Middle East and continuing fall in oil prices.
At the same time, the price remains under pressure due to a likeliness of monetary policy tightening in the US that strengthens the Dollar.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 1071.17.
Resistance levels: 1097.66.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1097.66 with the target at 1112.47 and stop-loss at 1090.00.

 

[LiteForexNews]

XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is moving along the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144 that are directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are barely changing. DI lines are moving up, while ADX is horizontal.

XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA100 and EMA144, but above the EMA50, all directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are very low. DI lines are moving down, while ADX is horizontal.

Key levels
Support levels: 14.00, 13.85, 13.67.
Resistance levels: 14.15, 14.39, 14.75, 14.99, 15.28, 15.51, 16.15, 16.34.

Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 14.15 with targets at 14.00, 13.85 and stop-loss at 14.30. Validity – 1-2 days.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 13.85 with the target at 14.25 and stop-loss at 13.67. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: pair growth and oil prices fall

Current trend
The Bank of Canada holds its monetary policy meeting today. As BoC Governor Stephen Poloz has repeatedly stated, the Regulator aims at keeping loose monetary policy and considers a possibility of a rate cut to -0.5%.
The Canadian currency is declining against the US Dollar amid a sharp fall in oil prices. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency reported oil supply might increase by 1.5 barrels per day in next six month. Moreover, oil prices are under pressure due to unfavorable conditions in global stock markets, China's stock market crash in particular.
In the given situation, the Bank of Canada might choose to wait on the sidelines and keep its interest rate on hold at 0.5% that, however, is unlikely to strengthen the national currency.

Support and resistance
Since the beginning of the year, USD/CAD pair has grown by more than 800 points.
OsMA and Stochastic on all timeframes, from 4-hour to monthly, recommend long positions. Any decline in the pair should be seen as a short-term correction.
Support levels: 1.4575, 1.4565, 1.4500, 1.4450, 1.4400.
Resistance levels: 1.4700.

Trading tips
Buy Stop orders can be placed at the level of 1.4710 with targets at 1.4800, 1.4900 and stop-loss at 1.4670.
Sell Stop orders can be placed at the level of 1.4550 with targets at 1.4450, 1.4400 and stop-loss at 1.4580.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Yesterday the pair fell amid growing anxiety on the market due to declining oil prices. In addition, the Euro remained under pressure prior to the ECB Interest Rates Decision that is due later today. The decision could significantly affect dynamics in the pair.
At the same time, the pair was supported by data on the Consumer Price Index from the US that came out worse than expectations. In December, the index fell by 0.1%.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading along the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed horizontally. MACD histogram is near the zero line and its volumes are very low. DI lines are moving in opposite directions, while ADX is horizontal.
Support levels: 1.0863, 1.0770 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.0613, 1.0525 (beginning of December 2015 lows).
Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0915, 1.0945, 1.0995, 1.1057 (middle of December 2015 highs).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0915 with targets at 1.0945, 1.0995 and stop-loss at 1.0900. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0863 with targets at 1.0802, 1.0770 and stop-loss at 1.0890. Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: growth might resume

Current trend
On Thursday, the AUD/USD pair tested the level of 0.6950, the 23.6% Fibonacci correction level. The Australian currency managed to strengthen when the US released not so favorable December’s data on inflation. Though Consumer Price Index came in at 0.7% in annual terms, it was 0.1% below the forecast. In monthly terms, the indicator was down to -0.1%. However, the pair is still under pressure from a gradual slowdown in China’s economy as the country is the largest trading partner of Australia.

Support and resistance
The pair is heading to 0.6895, the middle MA of Bollinger Bands. The breakdown of this level allows the pair to continue falling to 0.6835 and 0.6800. Alternatively, if the price turns up and overcomes the 23.6% Fibonacci level, it might grow further to 0.7020 and 0.7080.
Generally, according to technical indicators, the pair tends to grow. Bollinger Bands indicator is turning up. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are falling. Only Stochastic lines have crossed each other and turned down, forming a sell signal.
Support levels: 0.6950, 0.7020, 0.7080.
Resistance levels: 0.6895, 0.6835, 0.6800.

Trading tips
Long positions are preferable and can be opened from the level of 0.6950 with targets at 0.7020, 0.7080. Moreover, Buy Limit orders can be placed at the level of 0.6895 with the target at 0.6950.
If the price consolidates below the level of 0.6895, short positions can be opened with targets at 0.6835 and 0.6800.

 

[LiteForexNews]

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend
The price of gold continues growing amid yesterday’s news regarding a possibility of the QE program expansion by the ECB. In the nearest future, the price is likely to grow to the level of 1112.50 where the pair traded at high volumes. After that, the price will fall.

Support and resistance
The RSI is below the 70 mark indicating that the growth can continue to the level of 1115.00.
Support levels: 1074.52 (moving average with 200 period).
Resistance levels: 1112.50.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1112.50 with the target at 1074.80 and stop-loss at 1114.00.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1114.00.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: no change in trend yet

Current trend
A growth in stock indices followed ECB President Mario Draghi comments on future monetary policy in the eurozone. Japanese stock index NikkeiStockAverage also gained support when an aide to Japanese Prime Minister pointed out that further easing of monetary policy is necessary. Together with the index, the USD/JPY pair is growing as well. If the Bank of Japan introduces additional stimulus measures, the pair will manage to gain back its recent losses.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Markit Manufacturing PMI for January and CB Leading Indicator for December, due in the US. If the indicators come in above the forecast, the USD/JPY pair will strengthen.

Support and resistance
During the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair grew by 30 points from the level of 117.70 and continues moving up, having strengthened above the level of 118.20.
OsMA and Stochastic on the 4-hour and daily charts recommend long positions. However, as long as the price remains below the level of 118.80, no significant growth is expected.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 118.40 with targets at 118.80, 119.20, 119.65, 120.00, 120.55 and stop-loss at 117.80.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 117.30 with targets at 117.00, 116.50, 116.10 and stop-loss at 117.80.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CAD: pair fell

Current trend
In the end of last week, the pair significantly fell amid substantial growth in oil prices.
In addition, the Canadian Dollar was supported by strong macroeconomic data from Canada. Retail Sales in November 2015 grew by 1.7% while economists predicted a 0.2% growth. At the same time, the Consumer Price Index in December grew by 1.6%, against a 1.4% growth in the previous month that was, however, slightly worse than forecasts. Similar index by the Bank of Canada in December fell by 0.4% that was also a little worse than expectations.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart turned horizontally while the price range is narrowing. MACD is falling and giving a very strong sell signal. Stochastic reached its critical level in the oversold zone thus limiting further fall potential.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 1.4100 (local low), 1.4050, 1.4000 (psychologically important level), 1.3915, 1.3850, 1.3780, 1.3700.
Resistance levels: 1.4169 (local high), 142.00, 1.4245, 1.4315 (21 January high), 1.4400, 1.4450, 1.4500, 1.4609, 1.4700 (20 January high).

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 1.4100 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.4200, 1.4250 and stop-loss at 1.4000. Validity – 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.4100 with the target at 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.4150. Validity – 1-3 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: ahead of BoJ meeting
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Current trend
On Friday, the Bank of Japan releases its decisions on interest rates and quantitative and qualitative monetary easing programme. Last week, BoJ Governor stated the Regulator will not hesitate to adjust policy as needed to achieve the inflation target of 2%.
Amid a slowdown in Japan’s economic growth and, therefore, different approaches to monetary policy in the US and Japan, the USD/JPY pair is likely to grow in the medium term.
*
Support and resistance
By the opening of the European session, the USD/JPY pair declined by almost 50 points, but then managed to gain back some of its losses, having found a support at 117.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the hourly chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart).
OsMA and Stochastic on the monthly chart recommend short positions. The indicators on the daily chart are giving sell signals; on the weekly chart, they have started turning to long positions as well. However, according to the indicators on the 4-hour chart, the USD/JPY pair is likely to continue moving down in the short term.
After the breakdown of the support levels of 117.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the hourly chart, EMA50 on the 4-hour chart) and 117.40, a decline will continue towards 116.00 (lower border of a descending channel on the daily chart).
As an alternative scenario, the price might overcome the resistance levels of 118.70 (EMA144), 119.20 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and continue growing towards 120.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart), 120.55 (61.8% Fibonacci and ЕМА144 on the daily chart).
Support levels: 117.90, 117.40, 117.00.
Resistance levels: 118.70, 119.20, 120.00, 120.55.
*
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 118.40 with targets at 118.70, 119.20, 120.00, 120.50 and stop-loss at 117.80.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 117.30 with targets at 117.00, 116.50, 116.10 and stop-loss at 117.70.

 

[LiteForexNews]

NZD/USD: investors waiting for interest rates decisions
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Current trend
This week, the NZ Dollar, like other commodity currencies, is losing its positions again, following a decline in the price of oil. The price of oil is under pressure from concerns that an oversupply of the global oil market might deepen.
On Wednesday, market participants will turn their attention to the publications of interest rate decisions in the US and New Zealand. Further dynamics in the NZD/USD pair will largely depend on these releases.
*
Support and resistance
The pair is trading at the middle MA of Bollinger Bands, 0.6480. The breakout of this level leads to a growth to 0.6540. Otherwise, the price might decline back to 0.6420. In the short term, the pair is likely to remain within the range of 0.6540-0.6420.
Technical indicators give mixed signals. Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally. MACD histogram is about to enter the negative zone and form a sell signal. Stochastic is directed up.
Support levels: 0.6420, 0.6370.
Resistance levels: 0.6480, 0.6540, 0.6625.
*
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.6490 with the target at 0.6540. Pending sell orders should be placed at the level of 0.6540 with targets at 0.6480 and 0.6420.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review
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Current trend
The pair continues growing amid some weakening in the USD.
The American currency remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due today. Experts predict that monetary policy will stay unchanged. Furthermore, due to problems in China and falling oil prices the regulator might delay the next rate hike until summer that would significantly support the pair.
*
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.0787 (active trade), 1.0820.
Resistance levels: 1.0977, 1.1370.
*
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0820 with the target at 1.1370 and stop-loss at 1.0780.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/CHF: waiting for the Fed decision
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Current trend
Today the pair is falling amid some weakening in the US Dollar that remains under pressure prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision. Experts do not expect the rate to be hiked. At the same time, investors will focus their attention on commentaries by the regulator, in which there could be announced that monetary policy tightening is going to be delayed that would substantially pressure the pair.
*
Support and resistance
On the hourly, 4-hour and weekly charts, the pair is moving along ascending channels.
A downward correction can continue to the levels of 1.0120 (middle of the channel on the 4-hour chart), 1.0100 (ЕМА50), 1.0040 (ЕМА144, lower border of the channel), 1.0000 (ЕМА50 on the daily chart). From further fall the pair is prevented by support levels at 0.9855 (ЕМА144 on the daily chart), 0.9830 (December 2015 lows).
At the same time, a consolidation above the level of 1.0195 would send the pair towards 1.0400 (upper border of the channel on the weekly chart).
On the 4-hour and daily charts, OsMA and Stochastic signal sales.
Support levels: 1.0120, 1.0100, 1.0040, 1.000, 0.9975, 0.9830, 0.9765.
Resistance levels: 1.0195, 1.0400.
*
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.0130 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0040, 1.0000, 0.9855 and stop-loss at 1.0160.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.0185 with targets at 1.0200, 1.0260, 1.0300 and stop-loss at 1.0140.

 

[LiteForexNews]

XAG/USD: technical analysis
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XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading above the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA100 and EMA144, both directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are insignificant. The DI lines are directed down; ADX is growing.
*
XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the area of the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144, all directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone. The DI lines are moving in different directions; ADX is falling.
*
Support and resistance
Support levels: 14.37, 14.25, 13.99, 13.78, 13.68.
Resistance levels: 14.52, 14.70, 14.95, 15.28, 15.51, 16.13, 16.34.
*
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.52 with targets at 14.70, 14.95 and stop-loss at 14.37.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.37 with targets at 14.25, 14.00 and stop-loss at 14.50.
Validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

USD/JPY: general review
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Current trend
The pair continues growing even though the Fed at yesterday’s meeting left the interest rate unchanged.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan is expected to expand its stimulation program to reach the inflation target of 2% that would lead to further fall in the Yen. Furthermore, cheaper national currency would allow increasing Japanese exports and making them more competitive, that would have a positive effect on the economy.
According to forecasts, the pair can grow to the level of 125.00.
*
Support and resistance
Support levels: 117.85.
Resistance levels: 119.10.
*
Trading tips
Open long positions from the level of 119.20 with the target at 122.35 and stop-loss at 118.90.