Forex Analysis by LiteForex
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Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general analysis
Current trend
On Friday, USD strengthened against CAD due to the growth of Nonfarm Payrolls data by 201 thousand, which was higher than the forecast of 191 thousand. The published report dispelled almost all doubts about the rate increase this month. August US average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% MoM and by 2.9% YoY, supporting USD.
Cad is under pressure of August’s growth of unemployment to 6.0% against the forecast of 5.9% and the decrease of employment by 51.6K against the forecast of an increase by 5.0K.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands, the price range narrowed. MACD histogram is in the positive area, preserving the signal to open long positions.
Resistance levels: 1.3207, 1.3225, 1.3286, 1.3382.
Support levels: 1.3158, 1.3127, 1.3102, 1.3043, 1.3006, 1.2935, 1.2886.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3225 and stop loss 1.3130.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3120 with the target at 1.3050 and stop loss 1.3158.
Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Current trend
On Friday, USD strengthened against CAD due to the growth of Nonfarm Payrolls data by 201 thousand, which was higher than the forecast of 191 thousand. The published report dispelled almost all doubts about the rate increase this month. August US average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% MoM and by 2.9% YoY, supporting USD.
Cad is under pressure of August’s growth of unemployment to 6.0% against the forecast of 5.9% and the decrease of employment by 51.6K against the forecast of an increase by 5.0K.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands, the price range narrowed. MACD histogram is in the positive area, preserving the signal to open long positions.
Resistance levels: 1.3207, 1.3225, 1.3286, 1.3382.
Support levels: 1.3158, 1.3127, 1.3102, 1.3043, 1.3006, 1.2935, 1.2886.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3225 and stop loss 1.3130.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3120 with the target at 1.3050 and stop loss 1.3158.
Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: Euro is corrected
Current trend
EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Monday, departing from the updated local lows of August 21.
The investors are focused on trade negotiations between the US and EU representatives in Brussels. This is the first meeting of the parties since the chairman of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the US president Donald Trump agreed to delay the introduction of higher tariffs for cars produced in the EU in July. At the current negotiations, it is planned to discuss the export of American beef and the possible increase in European taxes towards large American Internet companies.
In general, the market is waiting for ECB meeting. The interest rates are unlikely to be changed, but new comments on the monetary policy of the regulator can appear.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowing from below, reflecting the flat nature of trading in the short term. MACD is trying to reverse upwards keeping a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a downward direction and reacts to the resumption of growth of the instrument at the beginning of the current trading week weakly yet.
It is worth looking into the possibility of corrective growth of EUR in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.1621, 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1749.
Support levels: 1.1573, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1473.
Trading tips
To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of 1.1621, while maintaining "bullish" signals from technical indicators. Take profit – 1.1718 or 1.1749. Stop loss — 1.1570 or 1.1560.
The return of "bearish" trend to the market with a breakdown of 1.1540 or 1.1530 may become a signal for the resumption of sales. Take profit — 1.1473 or 1.1446. Stop loss — 1.1580 or 1.1590.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Current trend
EUR showed moderate growth against USD on Monday, departing from the updated local lows of August 21.
The investors are focused on trade negotiations between the US and EU representatives in Brussels. This is the first meeting of the parties since the chairman of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and the US president Donald Trump agreed to delay the introduction of higher tariffs for cars produced in the EU in July. At the current negotiations, it is planned to discuss the export of American beef and the possible increase in European taxes towards large American Internet companies.
In general, the market is waiting for ECB meeting. The interest rates are unlikely to be changed, but new comments on the monetary policy of the regulator can appear.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowing from below, reflecting the flat nature of trading in the short term. MACD is trying to reverse upwards keeping a sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a downward direction and reacts to the resumption of growth of the instrument at the beginning of the current trading week weakly yet.
It is worth looking into the possibility of corrective growth of EUR in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.1621, 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1749.
Support levels: 1.1573, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1473.
Trading tips
To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of 1.1621, while maintaining "bullish" signals from technical indicators. Take profit – 1.1718 or 1.1749. Stop loss — 1.1570 or 1.1560.
The return of "bearish" trend to the market with a breakdown of 1.1540 or 1.1530 may become a signal for the resumption of sales. Take profit — 1.1473 or 1.1446. Stop loss — 1.1580 or 1.1590.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing the border of the oversold zone, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is testing from below its longer MA.
XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is breaking down its longer MA. The Composite is turning up, having failed its quite strong support region.
Key levels
Support levels: 13.90 (local lows), 13.72 (January 2016 lows), 13.63 (December 2015 lows).
Resistance levels: 14.28 (July 2017 lows), 14.45 (local highs), 14.85 (local highs).
Trading tips
There is a chance of an upward correction.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.45 with the target at 14.85 and stop-loss at 14.28. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 13.90 with targets at 13.72, 13.63 and stop-loss at 14.02. Validity – 3-5 days.
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing the border of the oversold zone, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is testing from below its longer MA.
XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is breaking down its longer MA. The Composite is turning up, having failed its quite strong support region.
Key levels
Support levels: 13.90 (local lows), 13.72 (January 2016 lows), 13.63 (December 2015 lows).
Resistance levels: 14.28 (July 2017 lows), 14.45 (local highs), 14.85 (local highs).
Trading tips
There is a chance of an upward correction.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.45 with the target at 14.85 and stop-loss at 14.28. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 13.90 with targets at 13.72, 13.63 and stop-loss at 14.02. Validity – 3-5 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review
Current trend
This week, Brent Crude oil shows ambiguous dynamics.
The pressure was exerted by the decision of US President Donald Trump on the introduction of 10% of duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 200 billion from September 24 (from January 1, tariffs may increase to 25%). The expansion of production in the US also influence quotes negatively: according to the Baker Hughes, the number of active oil rigs increased from 860 to 867 units. According to the EIA report, in October, production at seven largest shale deposits in the United States will reach 7.6 million barrels per day. Today, the instrument rose sharply to 78.80 after the Bloomberg publication, which states that Saudi Arabia considers prices above USD 80 per barrel to be "quite acceptable". This means that in the short term the country will not try to compensate the supply shortage.
Today, investors are waiting for the weekly API report on the US crude oil reserves. If the trend to reduction continues (the last time the volume of oil reserves fell by 8.636 million barrels), then quotes can get additional support.
Support and resistance
Now the price has risen above 78.12 (Murrey [6/8]) and can go up to the area of 79.68 (Murrey [7/8]) and 80.00. Reverse consolidation of the instrument below 78.12 may lead to a correction to 76.56 (Murrey [5/8]) and 75.00 (Murrey [4/8]).
Technical indicators show decline: Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 78.12, 76.56, 75.00.
Resistance levels: 79.68, 80.00, 81.25.
Trading tips
Sell positions may be opened below 78.12 with the target at 76.56 and stop loss at 78.60.
Buy positions may be opened from 78.90 with targets at 79.68, 80.00 and stop loss at 78.40.
Implementation time: 3-5 days.
Current trend
This week, Brent Crude oil shows ambiguous dynamics.
The pressure was exerted by the decision of US President Donald Trump on the introduction of 10% of duties on Chinese goods totaling USD 200 billion from September 24 (from January 1, tariffs may increase to 25%). The expansion of production in the US also influence quotes negatively: according to the Baker Hughes, the number of active oil rigs increased from 860 to 867 units. According to the EIA report, in October, production at seven largest shale deposits in the United States will reach 7.6 million barrels per day. Today, the instrument rose sharply to 78.80 after the Bloomberg publication, which states that Saudi Arabia considers prices above USD 80 per barrel to be "quite acceptable". This means that in the short term the country will not try to compensate the supply shortage.
Today, investors are waiting for the weekly API report on the US crude oil reserves. If the trend to reduction continues (the last time the volume of oil reserves fell by 8.636 million barrels), then quotes can get additional support.
Support and resistance
Now the price has risen above 78.12 (Murrey [6/8]) and can go up to the area of 79.68 (Murrey [7/8]) and 80.00. Reverse consolidation of the instrument below 78.12 may lead to a correction to 76.56 (Murrey [5/8]) and 75.00 (Murrey [4/8]).
Technical indicators show decline: Stochastic has reversed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 78.12, 76.56, 75.00.
Resistance levels: 79.68, 80.00, 81.25.
Trading tips
Sell positions may be opened below 78.12 with the target at 76.56 and stop loss at 78.60.
Buy positions may be opened from 78.90 with targets at 79.68, 80.00 and stop loss at 78.40.
Implementation time: 3-5 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis
XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing its most recent resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA.
XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.
Key levels
Support levels: 1175.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (local lows), 1130.0 (December 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 1213.0 (local highs), 1235.0 (local highs), 1241.0 (local highs).
Trading tips
The price has reached a strong support near 1180.0. There is a chance of an upward correction.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1213.0 with targets at 1235.0, 1241.0 and stop-loss at 1201.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1160.0 with the target at 1130.0 and stop-loss at 1175.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI keeps testing its most recent resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA.
XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.
Key levels
Support levels: 1175.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (local lows), 1130.0 (December 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 1213.0 (local highs), 1235.0 (local highs), 1241.0 (local highs).
Trading tips
The price has reached a strong support near 1180.0. There is a chance of an upward correction.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1213.0 with targets at 1235.0, 1241.0 and stop-loss at 1201.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1160.0 with the target at 1130.0 and stop-loss at 1175.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. YM: general analysis
Current trend
The Dow Jones index has been growing for the third trading session in a row. The price has updated the historical maximum at the level of 26703.1 after the news on the introduction of 10% of trade taxes on Chinese goods, although before that the US president had spoken about the value of 25%. The second positive factor was macroeconomic statistics. Initial Jobless Claims continue to be low, which indicates a strong economic growth in the country.
Today, Markit PMI statistic will be published. Next week, the Fed will hold a meeting. Many market participants expect that the interest rate will be increased by 25 basis points. Thus, USD will most likely begin to strengthen, and a correction in the stock market is possible.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is around 98 points and reflects a possibility of a correction.
Resistance levels: 26953.1, 27343.8.
Support levels: 26646.8, 26562.5.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 26646.8 with the target at 26562.5 and stop loss 26724.0.
Current trend
The Dow Jones index has been growing for the third trading session in a row. The price has updated the historical maximum at the level of 26703.1 after the news on the introduction of 10% of trade taxes on Chinese goods, although before that the US president had spoken about the value of 25%. The second positive factor was macroeconomic statistics. Initial Jobless Claims continue to be low, which indicates a strong economic growth in the country.
Today, Markit PMI statistic will be published. Next week, the Fed will hold a meeting. Many market participants expect that the interest rate will be increased by 25 basis points. Thus, USD will most likely begin to strengthen, and a correction in the stock market is possible.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is around 98 points and reflects a possibility of a correction.
Resistance levels: 26953.1, 27343.8.
Support levels: 26646.8, 26562.5.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 26646.8 with the target at 26562.5 and stop loss 26724.0.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. FTSE: technical analysis
FTSE, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite has reached its critical overbought levels.
FTSE, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just below the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with the SMA200 and above the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning up. The RSI is testing from above the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is breaking down its longer MA.
Key levels
Support levels: 7395.0 (local lows), 7325.0 (local lows), 7230.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7515.0 (local highs), 7580.0 (November 2017 highs), 7615.0 (local highs).
Trading tips
The price is testing its strong resistance near 7515.0. There is a chance of a downward reverse, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7395.0 with targets at 7325.0, 7230.0 and stop-loss at 7440.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7515.0 with targets at 7580.0, 7615.0 and stop-loss at 7475.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
FTSE, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite has reached its critical overbought levels.
FTSE, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just below the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains on the level with the SMA200 and above the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning up. The RSI is testing from above the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is breaking down its longer MA.
Key levels
Support levels: 7395.0 (local lows), 7325.0 (local lows), 7230.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7515.0 (local highs), 7580.0 (November 2017 highs), 7615.0 (local highs).
Trading tips
The price is testing its strong resistance near 7515.0. There is a chance of a downward reverse, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7395.0 with targets at 7325.0, 7230.0 and stop-loss at 7440.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7515.0 with targets at 7580.0, 7615.0 and stop-loss at 7475.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: the prices rise
Current trend
Yesterday, oil prices increased significantly, renewing the highs since July 11.
The instrument is supported by the results of the meeting of OPEC and partner countries in Algeria. Contrary to market expectations, the cartel did not decide to increase oil production to compensate for the supply deficit that could follow after the introduction of US sanctions against Iran. Moreover, next year OPEC predicts a serious decline in oil prices, and in this case, production may fall again. Now the market is waiting for a new meeting of the cartel and partner countries, which will take place in Abu Dhabi in December. By this time, the scale of the supply deficit after leaving the Iranian market will become clear, and decisions can be made on its compensation.
On Tuesday, investors will focus on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock release. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change will be published on Wednesday.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range is actively expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" dynamic develops. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument is overbought in the short term.
It is better to keep current long positions until the situation becomes clear.
Resistance levels: 72.49, 73.00, 73.74.
Support levels: 71.80, 71.00, 70.00, 69.07, 68.60.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 72.49 or 73.00 with the target at 73.74 or 74.30 and stop loss 72.30–72.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the downwards reversal of the price reverses near the current levels with the target at 70.00 and stop loss 72.50. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Current trend
Yesterday, oil prices increased significantly, renewing the highs since July 11.
The instrument is supported by the results of the meeting of OPEC and partner countries in Algeria. Contrary to market expectations, the cartel did not decide to increase oil production to compensate for the supply deficit that could follow after the introduction of US sanctions against Iran. Moreover, next year OPEC predicts a serious decline in oil prices, and in this case, production may fall again. Now the market is waiting for a new meeting of the cartel and partner countries, which will take place in Abu Dhabi in December. By this time, the scale of the supply deficit after leaving the Iranian market will become clear, and decisions can be made on its compensation.
On Tuesday, investors will focus on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock release. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change will be published on Wednesday.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range is actively expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" dynamic develops. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument is overbought in the short term.
It is better to keep current long positions until the situation becomes clear.
Resistance levels: 72.49, 73.00, 73.74.
Support levels: 71.80, 71.00, 70.00, 69.07, 68.60.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 72.49 or 73.00 with the target at 73.74 or 74.30 and stop loss 72.30–72.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the downwards reversal of the price reverses near the current levels with the target at 70.00 and stop loss 72.50. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: general review
Current trend
Today, the pair showed a moderate decline against the backdrop of the RBNZ decision on monetary policy.
The New Zealand regulator left the interest rate at the level of 1.75% as expected. At the same time, comments on monetary policy were extremely cautious, which disappointed investors. The RBNZ is interested in a low exchange rate of NZD in order to maintain demand for exports. This measure is aimed at mitigating the consequences of the US-China trade conflict.
Yesterday, the Fed announced the increase in the interest rate by 25 basis points, which was expected by the market. USD strengthening was limited as a number of financiers saw signs of overheating of the American economy. In this regard, investors are expecting today's speech of the Fed head Powell.
Today, a number of significant macroeconomic releases are expected, the publication of which will create volatility in the market. At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on GDP, as well as statistics on personal spending will be published in the US. The speech by the Fed Head Jerome Powell is due at 22:30 (GMT+2).
Support and resistance
On the H4 chart the instrument is trading in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator corrected horizontally and the price range reduced, which indicates further downward correction. MACD histogram is consolidating at the zero mark; the signal for entering the market is not formed. Stochastic is approaching the oversold area boundary; a buy signal can be formed during the day.
Resistance levels: 0.6653, 0.6671, 0.6701, 0.6727, 0.6753.
Support levels: 0.6633, 0.6600, 0.6562, 0.6534, 0.6505.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened below 0.6630 with target at 0.6570 and stop loss at 0.6660.
Long positions may be opened above 0.6660 with target at 0.6700 and stop loss at 0.6640.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Current trend
Today, the pair showed a moderate decline against the backdrop of the RBNZ decision on monetary policy.
The New Zealand regulator left the interest rate at the level of 1.75% as expected. At the same time, comments on monetary policy were extremely cautious, which disappointed investors. The RBNZ is interested in a low exchange rate of NZD in order to maintain demand for exports. This measure is aimed at mitigating the consequences of the US-China trade conflict.
Yesterday, the Fed announced the increase in the interest rate by 25 basis points, which was expected by the market. USD strengthening was limited as a number of financiers saw signs of overheating of the American economy. In this regard, investors are expecting today's speech of the Fed head Powell.
Today, a number of significant macroeconomic releases are expected, the publication of which will create volatility in the market. At 14:30 (GMT+2), data on GDP, as well as statistics on personal spending will be published in the US. The speech by the Fed Head Jerome Powell is due at 22:30 (GMT+2).
Support and resistance
On the H4 chart the instrument is trading in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator corrected horizontally and the price range reduced, which indicates further downward correction. MACD histogram is consolidating at the zero mark; the signal for entering the market is not formed. Stochastic is approaching the oversold area boundary; a buy signal can be formed during the day.
Resistance levels: 0.6653, 0.6671, 0.6701, 0.6727, 0.6753.
Support levels: 0.6633, 0.6600, 0.6562, 0.6534, 0.6505.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened below 0.6630 with target at 0.6570 and stop loss at 0.6660.
Long positions may be opened above 0.6660 with target at 0.6700 and stop loss at 0.6640.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: general review
Current trend
Despite the strength of the US currency in late summer and early autumn, the Canadian dollar is dominating the pair for three months.
One should note a wide range of movement of the instrument, which indicates an ambiguous situation between two currencies. The “Canadian” received the main impulse for growth after the increase in the key rate in July, after which it only grew against all the main competitors. The policy of the Bank of Canada is aimed at further raising of the rates, which will help to keep inflation at the target level. The next meeting of the regulator is scheduled for the end of October. At the end of September, the pair moved upwards, but after reaching the key resistance level of 1.3060, which was the upper border of the descending range, sharply headed down due to the release of strong data on the economic growth of Canada in July. This impulse still controls the movement of the instrument: in less than two days, the pair has gone through almost 300 points.
At the end of the week, major releases will be published, namely, data on the US and Canadian labor markets, including Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States.
Support and resistance
In the short term, the current momentum may extend to 1.2745, the first strong support level. In the future, a correctional movement up to the levels of 1.2825, 1.2860, 1.1285 is expected. In the medium term, the downward trend will continue, as confirmed by all technical indicators: MACD shows a sharp decrease in the volume of long positions, Bollinger Bands reversed down; on W1 chart, the pair broke the lower border of the long-term uptrend and the Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen lines of the Ichimoku indicator from the top down.
Support levels: 1.2780, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2585, 1.2555, 1.2530.
Resistance levels: 1.2825, 1.2860, 1.2885, 1.2910, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3060.
Trading tips
Deferred short positions may be opened from the levels of 1.2960, 1.2910, 1.2880 with the target at 1.2550 and stop loss at 1.3110.
Current trend
Despite the strength of the US currency in late summer and early autumn, the Canadian dollar is dominating the pair for three months.
One should note a wide range of movement of the instrument, which indicates an ambiguous situation between two currencies. The “Canadian” received the main impulse for growth after the increase in the key rate in July, after which it only grew against all the main competitors. The policy of the Bank of Canada is aimed at further raising of the rates, which will help to keep inflation at the target level. The next meeting of the regulator is scheduled for the end of October. At the end of September, the pair moved upwards, but after reaching the key resistance level of 1.3060, which was the upper border of the descending range, sharply headed down due to the release of strong data on the economic growth of Canada in July. This impulse still controls the movement of the instrument: in less than two days, the pair has gone through almost 300 points.
At the end of the week, major releases will be published, namely, data on the US and Canadian labor markets, including Nonfarm Payrolls in the United States.
Support and resistance
In the short term, the current momentum may extend to 1.2745, the first strong support level. In the future, a correctional movement up to the levels of 1.2825, 1.2860, 1.1285 is expected. In the medium term, the downward trend will continue, as confirmed by all technical indicators: MACD shows a sharp decrease in the volume of long positions, Bollinger Bands reversed down; on W1 chart, the pair broke the lower border of the long-term uptrend and the Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen lines of the Ichimoku indicator from the top down.
Support levels: 1.2780, 1.2745, 1.2700, 1.2640, 1.2585, 1.2555, 1.2530.
Resistance levels: 1.2825, 1.2860, 1.2885, 1.2910, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3060.
Trading tips
Deferred short positions may be opened from the levels of 1.2960, 1.2910, 1.2880 with the target at 1.2550 and stop loss at 1.3110.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the Euro remains under pressure
Current trend
EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday noting a new local low since September 11. Development of the "bearish" trend on the instrument was promoted by heterogeneous macroeconomic statistics from the EU.
Markit Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.2 points in September from 53.3 a month earlier. The unemployment rate was better than expected and dropped to 8.1% in August from 8.2% in the previous month.
The risks of a political crisis in Italy continue to exert additional pressure on EUR. Previously, Italian politicians set the ratio of deficit to GDP for the next year at a much higher level than was proposed by the EU Ministry of Finance. The European Commission has already opposed these budget plans.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range expands, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is declining keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero mark. Stochastic, having reached its minimum levels, reversed into the horizontal plane, indicating oversold EUR in the ultra-short and/or short term.
Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.
Resistance levels: 1.1615, 1.1657, 1.1700, 1.1732, 1.1801.
Support levels: 1.1561, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1473, 1.1446.
Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 1.1561 as from support with the subsequent breakout of 1.1615. Take profit — 1.1700 or 1.1732. Stop loss — 1.1570 or 1.1560.
A confident breakdown of 1.1561 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1.1500 or 1.1473, 1.1446. Stop loss — 1.1600 or 1.1615.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Current trend
EUR showed a decline against USD on Monday noting a new local low since September 11. Development of the "bearish" trend on the instrument was promoted by heterogeneous macroeconomic statistics from the EU.
Markit Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.2 points in September from 53.3 a month earlier. The unemployment rate was better than expected and dropped to 8.1% in August from 8.2% in the previous month.
The risks of a political crisis in Italy continue to exert additional pressure on EUR. Previously, Italian politicians set the ratio of deficit to GDP for the next year at a much higher level than was proposed by the EU Ministry of Finance. The European Commission has already opposed these budget plans.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range expands, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is declining keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero mark. Stochastic, having reached its minimum levels, reversed into the horizontal plane, indicating oversold EUR in the ultra-short and/or short term.
Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.
Resistance levels: 1.1615, 1.1657, 1.1700, 1.1732, 1.1801.
Support levels: 1.1561, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1473, 1.1446.
Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 1.1561 as from support with the subsequent breakout of 1.1615. Take profit — 1.1700 or 1.1732. Stop loss — 1.1570 or 1.1560.
A confident breakdown of 1.1561 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1.1500 or 1.1473, 1.1446. Stop loss — 1.1600 or 1.1615.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: silver prices grow
Current trend
Yesterday, silver rose, updating the highs since August 28. The instrument was supported by rather harsh statements by the representative of the ruling party of Italy, Claudio Borghi, that most of the problems in the country could be solved by having their own currency. However, at the end of the trading session, the instrument lost most of its gains after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who confirmed the previous policy to a gradual tightening of monetary policy.
A large block of statistics on business activity in Europe and the United States will be published today, as well as a number of speeches by Fed representatives, such as Lael Brainard and Loretta Mester. In addition, traders are waiting for ADP Employment Change release, since on Friday there will be a September report on the US labor market.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately. The price range is expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" trend develops. MACD is growing, maintaining a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is trying to consolidate above the zero line. Stochastic reversed horizontally, reacting to the active instrument correction.
The current readings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the “bullish” trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance Levels: 14.79, 14.86, 15.00.
Support levels: 14.67, 14.60, 14.51, 14.41, 14.25.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 14.79 with the target at 15.00. Stop loss is 14.67. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels of 14.67 or 14.60 with the targets at 14.41–14.35. Stop loss is 14.70–14.80. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Current trend
Yesterday, silver rose, updating the highs since August 28. The instrument was supported by rather harsh statements by the representative of the ruling party of Italy, Claudio Borghi, that most of the problems in the country could be solved by having their own currency. However, at the end of the trading session, the instrument lost most of its gains after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who confirmed the previous policy to a gradual tightening of monetary policy.
A large block of statistics on business activity in Europe and the United States will be published today, as well as a number of speeches by Fed representatives, such as Lael Brainard and Loretta Mester. In addition, traders are waiting for ADP Employment Change release, since on Friday there will be a September report on the US labor market.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately. The price range is expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" trend develops. MACD is growing, maintaining a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is trying to consolidate above the zero line. Stochastic reversed horizontally, reacting to the active instrument correction.
The current readings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the “bullish” trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance Levels: 14.79, 14.86, 15.00.
Support levels: 14.67, 14.60, 14.51, 14.41, 14.25.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 14.79 with the target at 15.00. Stop loss is 14.67. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels of 14.67 or 14.60 with the targets at 14.41–14.35. Stop loss is 14.70–14.80. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis
Current trend
Oil quotes are rising and trading near the level of 86.20. Yesterday’s official EIA Crude Oil Stocks change release, which reflected a significant increase in US oil reserves, could not stop the growth of the prices. According to the report, the indicator rose by 7.975 million barrels for the week, while a more modest growth of 1.985 million barrels was expected. The oil market is supported by the potential risks of oil shortage in the global market due to US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector. Currently, there is a slight downward correction, but in general, the upward trend continues.
On Friday, investors will pay attention to Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count release, which decreased by 3 units to 863 last week.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators reflect the preservation of growth potential but do not exclude a correction in the short term. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD volumes declined slightly in the positive zone, indicating the formation of a downward correction. Stochastic is pointed downwards. If sellers manage to lower the rate below 85.93 (Murrey [7/8]), then it may develop a correction to the area of 84.80, corresponding to the middle line of Bollinger bands. If buyers increase their activity and fix the rate above 86.55, then Brent may grow to 87.50 (Murrey [8/8]).
Resistance Levels: 86.60, 87.50, 88.00.
Support levels: 85.93, 84.37, 82.81.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 85.93 with the target around 84.80 and stop loss 86.10
Long positions can be opened above the level of 86.56 with the target at 87.50 and stop loss 86.30.
Current trend
Oil quotes are rising and trading near the level of 86.20. Yesterday’s official EIA Crude Oil Stocks change release, which reflected a significant increase in US oil reserves, could not stop the growth of the prices. According to the report, the indicator rose by 7.975 million barrels for the week, while a more modest growth of 1.985 million barrels was expected. The oil market is supported by the potential risks of oil shortage in the global market due to US sanctions against the Iranian oil sector. Currently, there is a slight downward correction, but in general, the upward trend continues.
On Friday, investors will pay attention to Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count release, which decreased by 3 units to 863 last week.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators reflect the preservation of growth potential but do not exclude a correction in the short term. Bollinger bands are directed upwards. MACD volumes declined slightly in the positive zone, indicating the formation of a downward correction. Stochastic is pointed downwards. If sellers manage to lower the rate below 85.93 (Murrey [7/8]), then it may develop a correction to the area of 84.80, corresponding to the middle line of Bollinger bands. If buyers increase their activity and fix the rate above 86.55, then Brent may grow to 87.50 (Murrey [8/8]).
Resistance Levels: 86.60, 87.50, 88.00.
Support levels: 85.93, 84.37, 82.81.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 85.93 with the target around 84.80 and stop loss 86.10
Long positions can be opened above the level of 86.56 with the target at 87.50 and stop loss 86.30.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: transition to the lateral trend
Current trend
The euro continues to decline against the dollar within the broad long-term trend.
Over the past two weeks, the instrument has lost more than 350 points, breaking strong support levels of 1.1515, 1.1500 on its way. Now the pair has fixed within the lateral consolidation after a serious decline and in anticipation of the release of key releases on the US labor market.
Today, data on unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls will be published. The unemployment will possibly decline, while at the same time, consensus forecasts indicate a reduction in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy.
Support and resistance
Most likely, one will see an increase in volatility after releases but there will be no significant change in the rate. In the medium term, the pair will descend to the levels of 1.1430, 1.1400, after which the rising wave will be formed with targets at 1.1600, 1.1665.
Technical indicators show the possibility of moving to broad lateral consolidation. MACD indicates a decrease in volumes on D1 chart, and the signal line is approaching zero one; Bollinger Bands on D1 and W1 charts are directed horizontally.
Support levels: 1.1500, 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1300, 1.1250, 1.1210, 1.1170.
Resistance levels: 1.1515, 1.1550, 1.1575, 1.1600, 1.1665, 1.1690, 1.1715, 1.1730.
Trading tips
In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1370; pending short positions may be opened from 1.1550, 1.1600, 1.1665 with the target at 1.1370 and stop loss at 1.1700, 1.1760.
Current trend
The euro continues to decline against the dollar within the broad long-term trend.
Over the past two weeks, the instrument has lost more than 350 points, breaking strong support levels of 1.1515, 1.1500 on its way. Now the pair has fixed within the lateral consolidation after a serious decline and in anticipation of the release of key releases on the US labor market.
Today, data on unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls will be published. The unemployment will possibly decline, while at the same time, consensus forecasts indicate a reduction in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sectors of the economy.
Support and resistance
Most likely, one will see an increase in volatility after releases but there will be no significant change in the rate. In the medium term, the pair will descend to the levels of 1.1430, 1.1400, after which the rising wave will be formed with targets at 1.1600, 1.1665.
Technical indicators show the possibility of moving to broad lateral consolidation. MACD indicates a decrease in volumes on D1 chart, and the signal line is approaching zero one; Bollinger Bands on D1 and W1 charts are directed horizontally.
Support levels: 1.1500, 1.1430, 1.1400, 1.1370, 1.1300, 1.1250, 1.1210, 1.1170.
Resistance levels: 1.1515, 1.1550, 1.1575, 1.1600, 1.1665, 1.1690, 1.1715, 1.1730.
Trading tips
In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 1.1370; pending short positions may be opened from 1.1550, 1.1600, 1.1665 with the target at 1.1370 and stop loss at 1.1700, 1.1760.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: technical analysis
XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is turning down, having failed its strong resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA.
XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its strong support.
Key levels
Support levels: 1182.0 (local lows), 1171.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (August lows).
Resistance levels: 1213.0 (local highs), 1236.0 (December 2017 lows), 1241.0 (local highs).
Trading tips
The price keeps consolidating in a narrow sideways channel. A breakout of its upper border would allow the growth to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1213.0 with targets at 1236.0, 1241.0 and stop-loss at 1196.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1182.0 with targets at 1171.0, 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1188.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is turning down, having failed its strong resistance. The Composite is testing from above its longer MA.
XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its strong support.
Key levels
Support levels: 1182.0 (local lows), 1171.0 (local lows), 1160.0 (August lows).
Resistance levels: 1213.0 (local highs), 1236.0 (December 2017 lows), 1241.0 (local highs).
Trading tips
The price keeps consolidating in a narrow sideways channel. A breakout of its upper border would allow the growth to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1213.0 with targets at 1236.0, 1241.0 and stop-loss at 1196.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1182.0 with targets at 1171.0, 1160.0 and stop-loss at 1188.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling, having formed a “double top” reverse pattern. The Composite is testing its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.
XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing towards its longer MA. The Composite is breaking out its longer MA.
Key levels
Support levels: 14.25 (local lows), 13.95 (local lows), 13.72 (January 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 14.77 (local highs), 14.95 (local highs), 15.24 (local highs).
Trading tips
After a short-term correction the fall can continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.25 with targets at 13.95, 13.72 and stop-loss at 14.38. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.95 with the target at 15.24 and stop-loss at 14.77. Validity – 3-5 days.
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is falling, having formed a “double top” reverse pattern. The Composite is testing its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.
XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is growing towards its longer MA. The Composite is breaking out its longer MA.
Key levels
Support levels: 14.25 (local lows), 13.95 (local lows), 13.72 (January 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 14.77 (local highs), 14.95 (local highs), 15.24 (local highs).
Trading tips
After a short-term correction the fall can continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 14.25 with targets at 13.95, 13.72 and stop-loss at 14.38. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.95 with the target at 15.24 and stop-loss at 14.77. Validity – 3-5 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are consolidating
Current trend
After a sharp decline at the beginning of the current week, gold prices are in the slight correction. The instrument is under pressure from a rising USD due to the restoration of treasury bonds yields’ growth. In addition, the market still expects a further increase in the Fed’s interest rates, which makes the purchase of gold, as an asset that does not generate interest income, unprofitable.
Tomorrow, investors expect the publication of statistics from the US consumer price dynamics. If the report meets the expectations of analysts, this will confirm market confidence in further tightening of monetary policy and will affect the instrument negatively.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving horizontally. The price range remains quite narrow and does not attempt to widen, which corresponds to the real trading dynamics in the market. MACD indicator is falling, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is directed downwards, however, it is approaching its lows, which indicates the risks associated with oversold gold in the short and/or super short term.
It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 1191.71, 1195.28, 1200.00, 1208.14.
Support Levels: 1187.53, 1183.10, 1180.35, 1170.00.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1191.71 with the target at 1200.00. Stop loss is 1187.53. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1183.10 with the target at 1175.00 or 1170.00. Stop loss is 1187.53. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Current trend
After a sharp decline at the beginning of the current week, gold prices are in the slight correction. The instrument is under pressure from a rising USD due to the restoration of treasury bonds yields’ growth. In addition, the market still expects a further increase in the Fed’s interest rates, which makes the purchase of gold, as an asset that does not generate interest income, unprofitable.
Tomorrow, investors expect the publication of statistics from the US consumer price dynamics. If the report meets the expectations of analysts, this will confirm market confidence in further tightening of monetary policy and will affect the instrument negatively.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving horizontally. The price range remains quite narrow and does not attempt to widen, which corresponds to the real trading dynamics in the market. MACD indicator is falling, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is directed downwards, however, it is approaching its lows, which indicates the risks associated with oversold gold in the short and/or super short term.
It is better to keep current short positions until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 1191.71, 1195.28, 1200.00, 1208.14.
Support Levels: 1187.53, 1183.10, 1180.35, 1170.00.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1191.71 with the target at 1200.00. Stop loss is 1187.53. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1183.10 with the target at 1175.00 or 1170.00. Stop loss is 1187.53. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: the pair is growing
Current trend
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair rose within the correction after the “bearish” start of the week, which led to a renewal of the lows since August 20. EUR was supported by USD correction due to a decline in the 10-year government bonds’ yield. Data on Industrial Production from France and Italy affected the instrument positively, too. Thus, August Industrial Production in France rose by 0.3% MoM, which is noticeably worse than the dynamics of last month (0.8% MoM), but still better than analysts' forecasts (+0.1% MoM). The corresponding index in Italy rose by 1.7% MoM against a decrease of 1.6% MoM last month. Experts expected the growth only by +0.8% MoM.
This morning, the pair continues to grow. Investors are waiting for new drivers: ECB meeting report and a block of US September macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are actively falling. The price range narrows, reflecting a sharp change in the trade direction in the short term. MACD reversed upwards, forming a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is growing, rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects that EUR will become overbought soon.
It is better to keep current long positions until the situation is clear.
Resistance Levels: 1.1580, 1.1615, 1.1657, 1.1700, 1.1732.
Support levels: 1.1547, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1460, 1.1430.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1580 with the target at 1.1657 or 1.1700. Stop loss is 1.1540.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 1.1580 and the breakdown of the level of 1.1547 with the targets at 1.1500 or 1.1475–1.1460. Stop loss 1.1580–1.1590.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Current trend
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair rose within the correction after the “bearish” start of the week, which led to a renewal of the lows since August 20. EUR was supported by USD correction due to a decline in the 10-year government bonds’ yield. Data on Industrial Production from France and Italy affected the instrument positively, too. Thus, August Industrial Production in France rose by 0.3% MoM, which is noticeably worse than the dynamics of last month (0.8% MoM), but still better than analysts' forecasts (+0.1% MoM). The corresponding index in Italy rose by 1.7% MoM against a decrease of 1.6% MoM last month. Experts expected the growth only by +0.8% MoM.
This morning, the pair continues to grow. Investors are waiting for new drivers: ECB meeting report and a block of US September macroeconomic statistics on consumer inflation.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are actively falling. The price range narrows, reflecting a sharp change in the trade direction in the short term. MACD reversed upwards, forming a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is growing, rapidly approaching its highs, which reflects that EUR will become overbought soon.
It is better to keep current long positions until the situation is clear.
Resistance Levels: 1.1580, 1.1615, 1.1657, 1.1700, 1.1732.
Support levels: 1.1547, 1.1522, 1.1500, 1.1460, 1.1430.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.1580 with the target at 1.1657 or 1.1700. Stop loss is 1.1540.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 1.1580 and the breakdown of the level of 1.1547 with the targets at 1.1500 or 1.1475–1.1460. Stop loss 1.1580–1.1590.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Mikhail Kurakin
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LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review
Current trend
The pair started the week with the growth and reached 1.1575. USD was under pressure after comments by the US president.
Donald Trump did not rule out the introduction of higher tariffs for Chinese goods if the PRC does not open its markets and does not enter into a fair agreement with the US. Washington has implemented three rounds of increasing duties, overlaying Chinese imports totaling USD 250 billion. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that the US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping should meet in November at the G20 summit in Argentina, where trade talks between the parties are likely to continue.
The data on retail sales in the United States is due today. In September, the indicator may rise from 0.1% to 0.7%, which may cause the beginning of a decline in the instrument.
Support and resistance
The key level for the "bulls" is 1.1596, which is near the center line of Bollinger Bands. If the price consolidates above it, the growth to the levels of 1.1657 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.1718 (Murrey [7/8]) may continue. A breakdown of the level of 1.1535 (Murrey [5/8]) will give the prospect of continuing the decline to 1.1474 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1413 (Murrey [3/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Technical indicators do not provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is reduced in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching the overbought area, which may lead to a downward reverse.
Resistance levels: 1.1596, 1.1657, 1.1718.
Support levels: 1.1535, 1.1474, 1.1413.
Trading tips
Short positions could be opened below 1.1535 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1413 and stop loss at 1.1580.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1600 with target at 1.1657, 1.1718 and stop loss at 1.1570.
Implementation period: 4-5 days.
Current trend
The pair started the week with the growth and reached 1.1575. USD was under pressure after comments by the US president.
Donald Trump did not rule out the introduction of higher tariffs for Chinese goods if the PRC does not open its markets and does not enter into a fair agreement with the US. Washington has implemented three rounds of increasing duties, overlaying Chinese imports totaling USD 250 billion. White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that the US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping should meet in November at the G20 summit in Argentina, where trade talks between the parties are likely to continue.
The data on retail sales in the United States is due today. In September, the indicator may rise from 0.1% to 0.7%, which may cause the beginning of a decline in the instrument.
Support and resistance
The key level for the "bulls" is 1.1596, which is near the center line of Bollinger Bands. If the price consolidates above it, the growth to the levels of 1.1657 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.1718 (Murrey [7/8]) may continue. A breakdown of the level of 1.1535 (Murrey [5/8]) will give the prospect of continuing the decline to 1.1474 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1413 (Murrey [3/8], the bottom line of Bollinger Bands). Technical indicators do not provide a clear signal. MACD histogram is reduced in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching the overbought area, which may lead to a downward reverse.
Resistance levels: 1.1596, 1.1657, 1.1718.
Support levels: 1.1535, 1.1474, 1.1413.
Trading tips
Short positions could be opened below 1.1535 with targets at 1.1474, 1.1413 and stop loss at 1.1580.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1600 with target at 1.1657, 1.1718 and stop loss at 1.1570.
Implementation period: 4-5 days.
