Forex Analysis by LiteForex

[Mikhail Kurakin]

liteForex AUD/USD: under the pressure of Chinese data

Current trend

This week the pair is going down and is now trading around 0.7600. AUD is under the pressure of poor Chinese data: October Retail Sales indicator fell from 10.3% to 10.0% and Industrial production one decreased from 6.6% to 6.2%. Chinese problems can significantly affect Australian economy negatively in long term. China consumes more than third of Australian export, a large part of it is iron ore. More than a half of it and iron product have been using in Chinese building market, which is slowing now. This fact has led to cut of surplus production capacities, which can affect Australian producers negatively.
Today US October Inflation data and Retail Sales publication can cause great volatility of the price. Consumer Price Index can fall from 2.2% to 2.0%, and after September growth by 1.6% Retail Sales data can be 0.0%. In this case the pair can enter the upward correction.

Support and resistance

The key “bearish” level is at 0.7568 (Murray [0/8]). The breakout will let the price fall to the area of 0.7507 (Murray [–2/8]). Stochastic’s attempt to reverse near the oversold area reflects the possibility of the upward correction. However, long positions with the targets at 0.7690 (Murray [4/8]), 0.7720 (Murray [5/8]) will become relevant only after the price is set above the level of 0.7630 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands).

Resistance levels: 0.7630, 0.7690, 0.7720.
Support levels: 0.7568, 0.7507.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7568 with the target at 0.7507 and stop loss at 0.7600.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7630 with the targets at 0.7690, 0.7720 and stop loss at 0.7600.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

EUR/USD: inflation is pushing the pair downwards

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair started correction from the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8] for D1). USD was supported by positive data on inflation in the USA. Basic CPI that the Fed uses to make decisions on changes in the interest rate, grew by 1.8% (after remaining on the level of 1.7% for five months). This gave the investors confidence that the regulator would increase the interest rate during its December meeting.
Today’s inflation statistics from Eurozone was negative for euro. CPI remained on the level of 1.4% and its basic variant dropped from 1.1% to 0.9%. Moreover, the European currency is under pressure from the data that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has problems forming the new German government.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is moving towards the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8] for D1) and may well reach it if today’s data on US industrial output prove to be strong (the indicator is expected to grow from 0.3% to 0.5%). Breaking down the level of 1.1718 will open the way for further decrease to 1.1657 (Murrey level [3/8] for Н4) and 1.1596 ([-1/8] for D1). One may speak about considerable growth after the price breaks out the level of 1.1840. In this case the targets of the “bulls” will be 1.1900 (Murrey level [7/8] for H4) and 1.1962 ([2/8] for D1). Technical indicators show opposite signals. Stochastic is leaving the overbought area forming a sell signal. MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone and form a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1657, 1.1596.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened at the current price with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1790.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss 1.1800.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

NZD/USD: downward impulse maintains

Current trend

New Zealand Currency is significantly falling against the US dollar after the interest rate decision and RBNZ Statement upon the maintenance of the mild monetary policy in the long term.
In the middle of the last week in RBNZ statement was claimed that the key interest rate will stay on the same level, so the monetary policy perspectives are unclear. It was also noted, that low rate of the national currency is necessary to increase the inflation rate.
Today the pair rapidly went down, breaking few of the key support levels. Poor Business NZ PMI, Producer Price Index – Input and Output data affected the pair negatively. The pair has lost 100 points in a few hours, and downward momentum maintains.
As there is lack of US key releases in the economical calendar, the pair will move according to the trading moods.

Support and resistance

The pair will fall to the key levels of 0.6770, 0.6680, 0.6575. Insignificant upward correction at the level of 0.6770 with the target at 0.6820 is possible, but after it the pair will decrease further. Technical indicators confirms the forecast, MACD reflects the growth of short positions volumes, Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.

Resistance levels: 0.6820, 0.6875, 0.6920, 0.6975, 0.7010, 0.7050.
Support levels: 0.6770, 0.6730, 0.6680, 0.6575, 0.6500.

Trading tips

It’s better to increase the volume of short positions at the current level with the targets at 0.6770, 0.6680, 0.6575 and stop loss at 0.6860

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

EUR/USD: instability in Germany puts pressure on euro

Current trend

The pair started the week with a fall to 1.1723. The market acted on the data on the termination of negotiations on the formation of a new German government. Free Democratic Party headed by Christian Lindener refused to become a part of the coalition government with CDU/CSU. Now Chancellor Angela Merkel may either create a government of parliamentary minority and reach separate agreements with the opposition on key bills, or hold an extraordinary parliamentary election. Anyway, instability in the German government will put pressure on EUR in the medium term.

After the opening of the European session the pair regained positions and is now trading around 1.1790. During the day the market is waiting for the speech by Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. However, the head of ECB is unlikely to say something new about the monetary policy. He stated several times that despite the success of the European economy stimulation had to be continued.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is located near 1.1780 (Murrey level [5/8]). Its breakdown may return the quotes to 1.1730 (lower line of Bollinger Bands)-1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]). One may speak about considerable growth in case the price consolidates above 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]). In this case growth may continue to 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]). Technical indicators don’t give a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are switching to the horizontal movement. MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards.

Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened below 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1820.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900 and 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1800.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

NZD/USD: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the pair continues to trade within the downward channel having decreased below the main support level of 0.6835 (Murrey [0/8]). The instrument failed to break through this level several times, and it still remains important. In case it is broken out, the price may continue to grow to 0.6897 ([1/8]) and 0.6958 ([2/8]). Otherwise the price may go down to 0.6713 ([-2/8]).

Further fall of the quotes may be caused by today’s release of the dairy prices index by Global Dairy Trade. They have been falling a stable decreasing pattern since the beginning of October, and its continuation may put considerable pressure on the currency of New Zealand.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators don’t exclude reversal and upward correction. Stochastic is near the oversold area and moves horizontally. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and shows signs of divergence with the price chart which indicates reversal.

Support levels: 0.6775 ([-1/8]), 0.6713 ([-2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.6835 ([0/8]), 0.6897 ([1/8]), 0.6958 ([2/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation buy positions should be opened when the level of 0.6835 is broken through with targets at 0.6897, 0.6958 and stop-loss at 0.6800.
Short positions may be opened below 0.6775 with targets at 0.6713, 0.6670 and stop-loss at 0.6810.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

AUD/USD: Philip Lowe stopped the fall of the pair

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair made an attempt of upward correction and rose to 0.7590. Investors acted upon the statement of the head of RBA Philip Lowe who said that at that time there was no need to increase the interest rates, but it could appear soon. The state of the economy indicates that the regulator is likely to increase the interest rate with its next decision. However, the optimism of the market did not last long, as Lowe gave no hints regarding the time of the increase. Currently the price is aiming at November minimums at 0.7535.
The minutes of the Fed’s November meeting will be released in the evening. Investors will look for confirmations of their expectations regarding one more increase of the interest rate in the USA in December.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is consolidating around 0.7568 (Murrey level [2/8]) and may remain there until the end of the week. The consolidation of the price below 0.7568 will open the way for reduction to 0.7446 (Murrey level [1/8], lower border of the upward channel). Still, reversal and beginning of growth to 0.7690 (Murrey [3/8]) and 0.7812 (Murrey [4/8]) seem more likely. This is confirmed by the fact that Stochastic starts to reverse in the oversold areas and Bollinger Bands have turned to horizontal movement.
Support levels: 0.7568, 0.7446, 0.7324.
Resistance levels: 0.7690, 0.7812.

Trading tips

Long positions should be opened from 0.7600 with targets at 0.7690, 0.7812 and stop-loss at 0.7560.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7520 with targets at 0.7446, 0.7324 and stop-loss at 0.7560.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

EUR/USD: American currency is under pressure

Current trend

The Thanksgiving Day is celebrated today in the USA, but dollar is under the pressure after FOMC Minutes publication. Some of FOMC members expressed their doubts in the rapid increase of the interest rate in unstable inflation growth conditions. Earlier the outgoing Fed’s head Janet Yellen stated the same doubts. On the other hand, EUR is supported by the news than the head of Social-Democratic Party Martin Schulz is ready to negotiate with Chancellor Angela Merkel upon her restricted support in case of minority party creation by her.
In addition, the “bulls” were inspired by strong statistics from EU. Markit Services PMI reached the maximum level of 56.2 points since this May, as Markit Manufacturing PMI reached the record 60.0 points.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is testing the level of 1.1840 (Murray [6/8]) and after consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 1.1900 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murray [8/8]). Stochastic is in the overbought area, so the correction to the level of 1.1780 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. The growth seems more likely.

Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1840 with the targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop loss at 1.1800.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1820 with the targets at 1.1780 and 1.1718 and stop loss at 1.1850.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

During last few trading weeks USD is rapidly falling against JPY due to the decrease of the investment attractiveness of the US currency after the slowing of the USA Fed’s monetary policy tightening. In addition, the change of the US regulator’s head affected USD negatively.
Last week favorable Q3 economy growth data were released, and yen grew significantly. There were no key macroeconomic data this week, but the momentum strengthened and the demand on Japanese currency increased, as a result the pair fell by more than 150 points. Yesterday the instrument reached the key support level of 111.00 and reversed into consolidation.
Due to US holidays in the end of the week the significant movement of the pair is not expected.

Support and resistance

In the short term the correction within the downward channel is expected, after the end of which the pair can fall to the levels of 110.50, 109.00.
At the moment the demand on yen is high, which draws the pair downwards, and if US Fed will postpone the interest rate rise to 2018, the instrument can reach the levels of 108.15, 107.50.
On the 4-hour chart technical indicators confirms the forecast, MACD short positions volumes are growing, Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.

Resistance levels: 111.50, 111.75, 112.40, 112.60, 112.85, 113.45, 113.70, 114.00.
Support levels: 111.00, 110.50, 110.20, 109.55, 109.00, 108.15, 107.50.

Trading tips

It’s relevant to increase the volumes of short positions at the current level with the targets at 110.50, 109.00 and stop loss at 112.10.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

GBP/USD: perspectives are unclear

Current trend

Last week pound was growing and reached the maximum since the beginning of October at the level of 1.3360 on Friday.
The investors concern more upon the possible slowing of the monetary policy tightening rate in the USA, than the Brexit negotiations of UK and EU difficulties, where the parties still cannot began to discuss trading agreements due to the fact that the Irish border issue is unclear. Irish government wants to get the guarantees from UK government, that the control on the border between North Ireland and Republic Ireland won’t be implied. Otherwise the Irish party, represented by Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan threatens to block further Brexit negotiations.

Intransigence of the parties and the delaying of Brexit negotiations make business community fears that the deal won’ be done at all, and UK will leave EU without any agreements. This has led to the fact that a number of companies decreased its presence in the country, which can result in the Industrial Production and GDP fall in the UK.
Last week British Office for Budget Responsibility decreased the next year GDP growth forecast from 2.0% to 1.5%. The middle term perspectives of the currency are still unclear.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is tending to the level of 1.3366 (Murray [7/8]) and after the breakout can move upwards to the level of 1.3427 (Murray [8/8]). Otherwise the price can return to the levels of 1.3305 (Murray [6/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands), 1.3244 (Murray [5/8]). Technical indicators reflect the growth. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards, Stochastic reversed upwards.

Resistance levels: 1.3366, 1.3427, 1.3488.
Support levels: 1.3305, 1.3244, 1.3183.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3366 with the target at 1.3427 and stop loss at 1.3300.
The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3305 will make short positions with the targets at 1.3244, 1.3183 and stop loss at 1.3340 relevant.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

EUR/USD: Powell strengthened dollar

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the pair was growing to the area of 1.1962 (Murray [4/8]), but was corrected and is now trading around 1.1880.
USD strengthened after Powell’s statements before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate meeting. Today the Committee should make a decision upon the conformation of Fed’s head. Powell noted, that the regulator will maintain the increasing rates and reducing balance-sheets policy and support the employment market and stimulate the inflation. He also supported the banks activity on the stocks markets restriction laws, which will let US financial system be strengthened.

Powell’s statement stimulated the growth of dollar, but it’s unclear, how significant will it be. Today the investors are focused on Trumps meeting with the US Senate Republican Party members, where he will try to persuade them to vote for the tax reform package, but earlier senators Ron Johnson and Bob Corker threatened to vote against the new laws. The result of the negotiations can bring the pair significant volatility.

Support and resistance

The price weakened below the level of 1.1900 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands and can be corrected to the levels of 1.1840 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.1780 (Murray [1/8]). The growth to the levels of 1.2023 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.2085 (Murray [6/8]) is possible after the breakout of the level of 1.1962 (Murray [4/8]).

Resistance levels: 1.1900, 1.1962, 1.2023, 1.2085.
Support levels: 1.1840, 1.1780, 1.1718.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current level with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1780 and stop loss at 1.1930.
The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.1962 will make long positions with the targets at 1.2023, 1.2085 and stop loss at 1.1930 relevant.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

USD/JPY: the pair has been corrected

Current trend

Today the pair moved away from the resistance level of 111.65 and dropped to 111.38. This dynamics was caused by yet another launch of a ballistic missile by North Korea. International leaders traditionally criticized the launch. Donald Trump said the missile was a threat to the whole world, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in asked North Korea to stop aggression and embark on negotiations. However, the general reaction of the market was not noticeable. The announcement of North Korean officials that the main tasks of the nuclear program had been completed also gives certain optimism.

Political tension pushed economic data backwards, and they are generally negative for yen. October statistics on retail sales was weak. The indicator made up 0.0% MoM and -0.2% YoY. Retail sales in major stores also dropped by 0.77%. According to a monthly report of the Japanese government, the national economy is moderately restoring, but internal consumption does not grow fast enough due to slower salary increase rates thus putting pressure on GDP.

Support and resistance

Right now the price is restoring positions after a morning fall. A key level for the “bulls” is 111.65. Its breakout will open the way for further growth to 112.50 (Murrey [8/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands). Breaking down the level of110.93 (Murrey [7/8]) will open the way for further fall to 110.20 and 109.37 (Murrey [6/8]). Technical indicators show possible upward correction. Stochastic is leaving the oversold area, and MACD histogram begins to reduce in the negative zone.

Support levels: 110.93, 110.20, 109.37.
Resistance levels: 111.65, 112.50, 113.20.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 111.65 with target at 112.50 and stop-loss at 111.10.
The consolidation of the price below 110.93 and the reversal around 111.65 will make short positions relevant with targets at 110.20, 109.37 and stop-loss at 111.30 and 112.00.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

GBP/USD: the pound stopped strengthening

Current trend

Last week the pair continued to grow and today reached the level of 1.3548 (Murrey [6/8]). By now it has been corrected to the level of 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) but may resume growth as the general background is negative for USD. Investors were disappointed that the Senate stopped the discussion of the tax reform and moved the vote from Thursday to Friday. The market is also unstable due to the news about possible dismissal of the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson due to his recent conflict with President Trump.
On the other hand, the pound is supported by strong data on the UK industrial PMI. In November the indicator grew from 56.6 to 58.2 points which is the best value since 2013. Correction may continue if strong data on ISM industrial PMI are released from the USA. However, the indicator is expected to fall (from 58.7 to 58.4 points).

Support and resistance

Right now the pair is trading around 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) and is trying to move upwards. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 1.3549 (Murrey [6/8]). Breaking through it will open the way for further growth of the pair to 1.3610 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.3670 (Murrey [8/8]). The consolidation of the price below 1.3488 will lead to further reduction to 1.3427 (Murrey [4/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3366 (Murrey [3/8]). Technical indicators provide for correction. Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram started to fall in the positive zone and broke down the signal line.

Support levels: 1.3488, 1.3427, 1.3366.
Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3610, 1.3671.

Trading tips

In the current situation buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.3550 with targets at 1.3610, 1.3671 and stop-loss at 1.3510.
Sell positions should be opened below the level of 1.43888 with targets at 1.3427, 1.3367 and stop-loss at 1.3520.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is growing, having failed its strong support just above the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is testing from below its longer MA.

FTSE, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is growing to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is growing, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite turned up as well, having failed its longer MA.

Key levels

Support levels: 7285.0 (August lows), 7200.0 (September lows), 7130.0 (October 2016 highs).
Resistance levels: 7450.0 (March highs), 7516.0 (July highs), 7545.0 (August highs).

Trading tips

The price keeps trading in a long-term sideways channel remaining near the middle of it.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7285.0 with targets at 7200.0, 7130.0 and stop-loss at 7345.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7450.0 with targets at 7516.0, 7545.0 and stop-loss at 7410.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

EUR/USD: the pair is waiting

Current trend

During the current week the pair is trading near the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8]) but is unable to move below it because it is supported by the middle line of Bollinger Bands. In the near future the price may remain within the range of 1.1800-1.1850 although potential of reduction to 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) remains. Still, investors are unlikely to take risks before Friday releases from the US labor market (the indicator is about to reduce from 260K to 200K).

Moreover, market is unstable due to the uncertain situation with the US state debt limit. The Congress has to agree on its increase before Friday, otherwise the financing of governmental structures will be reduced, and some of them may stop working.
Today attention should be paid to November employment data by ADP that are considered an early indicator for federal statistics. The indicator is expected to drop from 235K to 185K causing the growth of the price and the weakening of the US currency.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show possible continuation of the fall. Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram has crossed the signal line from above. Still, one may speak about the opening of short positions only after the price consolidates below the middle line of Bollinger Bands. In this case it may go down to 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8]) and 1.1657 (Murrey [-2/8] for H4). In case the price consolidates above 1.1840, growth may continue to 1.1962 (Murrey [2/8]).

Support levels: 1.1800, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1930, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.1800 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1850. Buy positions should be opened from 1.1870 with target at 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1840.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

XAU/USD: Fibonacci analysis

Current trend

In the H4 chart the price has been showing a downward trend for the second week in a row. By now it has tested the level of 1255.70 and, according to MACD histogram that is increasing in the negative zone and Bollinger Bands directed downwards, it ready to continue reduction. In case of reversal the price may be corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands at 1266.00 (correction by 23.6%).

D1 chart is more interesting. The price has broken out the lower border of the horizontal channel (around 1265.00) within which it has been trading since September. By now the quotes have potential for further reduction to the gathering of corrections at 1242.00 (50,0% for W1, 76,4% for D1). However, to do so they would have to break through the upward fan. The key area for the “bulls” is 1265.00 (gathering of 38.2% correction for W1 and 61.8% for D1). In case the price returns to the side channel, growth may continue to 1279.50 (correction 50.0% for D1, middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1297.00 (gathering of corrections 23.6% for W1 and 38.2% for D1). Indicators show mixed signals. MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone. Bollinger Bands start to diverge confirming the formation of the downward trend. However, Stochastic has entered the oversold area which may cause the formation of a buy signal.

Trading tips

Sell positions should be opened below the level of 1255.00 with target at 1242.00 and stop-loss at 1262.00.

Alternative scenario

Buy positions may be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 1265.00 with targets at 1279.50, 1297.00. Stop-loss should be placed around 1257.00

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Today the pair rose to the level of 1.3515 after the UK and the EU entered into intermediary agreements. According to them, the UK has to grant special rights to 4 mln EU citizens living in its territory, pay 40 to 60 mln euro for withdrawal, and eliminate excessive control at the border of North Ireland. Now the parties may start discussing the trading agreement, but it promises to be even more complicated. Before that Theresa May pointed out that she would try to enter into a free trade contract with the EU under privileged conditions, but it is still unclear what the UK government is ready to trade for it. The absence of clearance may put pressure on the UK businesses and therefore the pound. During the day GBP was also supported by positive statistics: the volume of industrial output in October grew by 3.5%, and the volume of processing industry – by 3.9%.

Right now the pair is being corrected, but the price may reverse if the data from the US labor market released today is weak. The number of workplaces is expected to drop from 261K to 200K. Similar data by ADP released earlier confirmed the negative trend (the indicator reduced from 235K to 190K).

Support and resistance

Right now the price is testing the level of 1.3427 (Murrey [4/8], middle line of Bollinger Bands), and in case it is broken down, may continue to decrease to 1.3366 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.3305 (Murrey [2/8]). In case the level of 1.3488 (Murrey [5/8]) is broken out, the price may continue to grow to 1.3550 (Murrey [6/8]) and 1.3610 (Murrey [7/8]). Technical indicators show the continuation of the fall. Stochastic is leaving the overbought ares, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 1.3427, 1.3366, 1.3305.
Resistance levels: 1.3488, 1.3550, 1.3610.

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions may be opened below 1.3427 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands with targets at 1.3366, 1.3305 and stop-loss at 1.3465.
Buy positions may be opened above 1.3488 with targets at 1.3550, 1.3610 and stop-loss at 1.3455.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair opened the week with upward correction continuing to act on the mixed November data from the US labor market. The number of nonfarm payrolls was above expectations (228K) but still reduced compared to the previous value (244K). Moreover, hourly growth of salary failed to reach the forecast levels and made up 0.2%. Generally, these data should not have an impact on the decision of the Fed’s members to increase the interest rate again during its December meeting, but it may be of importance in the long run.
The last Fed’s meeting this year is scheduled for this week and will be interesting for the investors not only because of the long-awaited decision on the interest rate but also due to follow-up statements, a press conference, and inflation and economic growth outlooks. In November the market received a number of negative signals indicating possible slowdown in the tightening of the monetary policy due to insufficient inflation growth in the country. At first it was pointed out by Janet Yellen, and then after the release of the recent Fed’s minutes it turned out that the chairwoman was supported by a number of members as well. If Yellen confirms her negative view of the situation, USD may get considerably cheaper.

Support and resistance

Right now the price is moving to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If it consolidates above it and the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]) growth may continue to 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise the fall will resume to 1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1657 (Murrey [3/8]). Technical indicators don’t give a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed upwards, Bollinger Bands are narrowing before considerable movement, and MACD is reducing in the positive zone.

Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions may be opened below the level of 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1810.
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1810.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

USD/CAD: Murray analysis

Current trend

Since October on the daily chart the pair is trading above the Ultimate Resistance of Murray ([8/8]) around 1.2695, but cannot break the level of 1.2940 (Murray [+2/8]) and is trading within the horizontal channel. Now the price is trying to reverse into fall to the lover border of the range 1.2695. However, it needs to consolidate below the level of 1.2817 (Murray [+1/8]), as the price is set near it. Stochastic confirms the possibility of the decrease, entering the overbought zone, which reflects the perspective of a reversal. In addition, the price is near the temporal border, where the direction of the movement usually changes. If the price cannot break the level of 1.2817, it can grow to the levels of 1.2940 and 1.3000 (Murray [5/8] for H4).

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2940 ([+2/8]), 1.3000 ([5/8] for H4).
Support levels: 1.2817 ([+1/8]), 1.2695 ([8/8]), 1.2573 ([7/8]).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level 1.2817 with the target at 1.2695 and stop loss at around 1.2860.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2940 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.2840.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

Brent Crude Oil: oil tries to reclaim positions

Current trend

On Tuesday, the Brent price underwent significant fluctuations. First, it reached two-year highs, outpacing the mark of $65.00 per barrel, but then adjusted to the area of 62.60. The growth of quotes was caused by reports on the suspension of the operation of the largest North Sea pipeline, Forties Pipeline System, which transported 40% of region’s oil from 85 fields. However, the enthusiasm of investors quickly dried up, giving way to fears that the physical restriction of the supply of the North Sea blend could lead to its ousting from the Asian markets by other types of oil from the Middle East.
At the moment oil prices are making a new attempt at growth, taking advantage of a significant reduction in commercial oil reserves in the United States. According to the API, it amounted to 7.382 million barrels. In addition, prices were supported by OPEC chairman Mohamed Barkindo, who said that the surplus of world oil reserves fell to 130 million barrels, while last month it was 154 million barrels. This fact indicates the gradual return of the oil market to stability. Probably, these data will be reflected in OPEC's monthly report on the oil market that is coming out today. Also we should note the evening release of data on oil reserves in the US from the EIA, which are also expected to show reduction (by 3.78 million barrels). Finally, one can not discount the factor of the Fed meeting.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price is in the region of the upper boundary of the Murrey channel ([5/8]) at 63.28, further price growth is hampered by the middle Bollinger Bands’ line. The potential for further recovery of quotes to the levels of 64.05 (Murrey [6/8]) and 65.84 (Murrey [7/8]) is available, as turned up Stochastic shows. However, fixing the price below the 63.28 mark will give the prospect of resuming the decline to 62.50 (Murrey [4/8]), 61.72 (Murrey [3/8]), and 60.93 (Murrey [2/8]).

Support levels: 63.28, 62.50, 61.72, 60.93.
Resistance levels: 64.05, 64.84, 65.62.

Trading tips

In the current situation, short positions may be opened below the level of 63.28 with targets at 62.50, 61.72 and stop-loss at 63.60. Long positions should be opened from the level of 63.70, with targets at 64.00, 64.84 and stop-loss at 63.30.

 

[Mikhail Kurakin]

LiteForex: XAU/USD: Fibonacci analysis

Current trend

On the 4-hour chart the price is growing after the reversal around 1240.00. Now the “bullish” targets are the level of 1260.05 (correction 38.2%) and 1267.50 (correction 50.0%), approximately coinciding with the lower border of the sideways channel for D1 chart and being a key level for the further growth. If the price is set below the level of 1250.90 (correction 23.6%, the price can return to 6 months lows at the area of 1240.00.

On the daily chart the price оrebounded from the correction cluster 1242.00 (50.0% for W1, 76.4% for D1) and is now trying to grow through the upward upcoming fan. Key “bullish” level is the correction cluster around 1265.00 (38.2% for W1 and 61.8% for D1) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands behind it. After the breakout of the levels the price can return to the long term horizontal channel and can grow to the levels of 1279.50 (correction 50.0%) and 1297.00 (correction cluster 23.6% for W1 and 38.2% for D1). However, the possibility of the reversal of the price 1265.00, which is the strong “mirror” resistance and return of the price to the area of 1242.00 is high.

Main scenario

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1250.00 or after the rebound at the level of 1265.00 with the target at 1242.00 and stop loss 1256.00 and 1268.00.

Alternative scenario

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1267.50 with the targets at 1279.50, 1297.00 and stop loss around 1264.00.