Football gambling/trading - stragety and analysis

[Getafix]

I agree Optioholic, the stock market is a less risky proposition over the long term meaning more people can benefit. It has been said that as many as 1% of people make sports betting pay. However, I have to disagree with what you say with regards mathematical based edges as I think this is most suited to sports...for example, sports aren't affected by as many variables (ie., earthquake in Japan). I also feel it is so much more difficult to price up a company correctly and then for the market to catchup and price it up correctly later i.e., profit (with sports the end of the event proves you right or wrong regardless of whether the market ever eventually gets it right).

Monotonetuba, I have heard so many horror stories about those using martingale plans that I offered my concerns. The martingales are a favourite of sports tipsters for a dark reason - the longer the subscriber is winning the longer they subscribe. The martingale will allow very long periods of winnings until one large bad crunch where it is all lost. You should look at the math if you haven't already. Maybe I'll follow this up when I get chance to show how easy it would be to bankrupt a bank from 5p stakes!

 

[bollinger bands]

r.j.e.turner the thread starter, where are You? how is it going? please let us know

 

[accountant1]

Maybe take a look at what these guys have to say: Football Betting - Betting Bible

They take more of a fundamental analysis approach to sports betting, as opposed to purely sports trading, but they articulate the concept of value betting on football pretty well

 

[Lord Flasheart]

Just my tuppence worth. There are two good ways to make money of football. I make a little using the second method
1) You totally understand the price and what prices should be. Remember a bookie is just a bookie and the first price starts with an opinion. A clued up guy will know more than the bookie will.Basically you are looking to get 5/4 on an even money shot and over time the % will go in your favour. There are major differences in the prices offered at the start and the price at time of kick off. The clued up guy will easily be able to take advantages of this situation. Another slightly different idea is to follow just a few teams and know absolutely everything about them. Example,I am a wimbledon supporter and a few weeks ago I would quite happily have backed every penny I have that we would not go down and we were 3 pts adrift. This is because I had been to the last 4 home games and had seen the way we had performed against the top sides in the league, and also the underline increase in performance since the new manager took over. Now we are getting some points together and hopefully start to pull away from the bottom. The point I am making is that that is well clued up information about 1 team,now to make a living you have to be that clued up about lots of teams and really understand the % book,etc.its an 8 hrs a day job,not just look at a few stats and place your bets.
2) Arbitrage between the bookies and the exchanges. dont think that you can go on an odds compare site and bet all three to win a small %,etc,you will never get enough on to make it worth your while.you need to find the biggest price difference between the exchanges and the best price bookie,back on the exchange and hope to lay off again when money from the bookies has shortened the price.