Best Thread Firewalker's Journey: A path of discovery in search for enlightenment

[firewalker99]

The point is so that everyone knows what your current plan is, which is why I asked for your current plan. Since this is different from what you posted yesterday, is this your current plan? If so, there are a number of things missing from what you posted last night.

Again, you are in complete control of this process. You can stop anytime you want to.

What I posted yesterday was a preparation based on the setup you asked me to post.
What I posted today, is the plan for during the day, which isn't different from before to my knowledge. The only thing "missing" is the exact numbers where to enter. They can easily be read of the chart as the S/R levels are enumerated in the post of yesterday. Exit and target depend on ATR.

 

[dbphoenix]

What I posted yesterday was a preparation based on the setup you asked me to post.
What I posted today, is the plan for during the day, which isn't different from before to my knowledge. The only thing "missing" is the exact numbers where to enter. They can easily be read of the chart as the S/R levels are enumerated in the post of yesterday. Exit and target depend on ATR.

I asked that you post your trading plan. "Check what happens" is not sufficient.

What you posted last night is only the first step. You then have to go on to supply the remainder of the information. Again:

2. State where you plan to go long or short after the open and why (no theory).

3. State what your stop is going to be and why (no theory).

4. State what your target(s) is(are) and why (no theory).

5. State how and where you're going to exit and why (no theory).

All in one place. All in one post. All together.

Try again after the close.

 

[firewalker99]

I asked that you post your trading plan. "Check what happens" is not sufficient.
.

I said "I will also check what happens when price approaches PDH, PDL, PDC." in the addendum of that post. This means I will not act or think to act in any way around these points, only observe. Anyway, if you find that not sufficient than just leave the addendum out of it instead of being selective of what you choose to comment on.

What you posted last night is only the first step. You then have to go on to supply the remainder of the information. Again:...
Try again after the close.

Apparently what you mean isn't sinking in. Perhaps you can put up a NQ chart of yesterday with an - imaginary or whatever kind of - plan with exactly what it is you mean by "state how and when..." and we can all start learning something. Last time I checked and did this (about 1 month ago), the same information I post today and yesterday was valid, but suddenly it isn't anymore. Making me doubt everything, makes me only doubt you.

*Edit: and please don't call me lazy this time, because I haven't ignored one single task or exercise you gave me. I doubt that any other newbies who where thinking of opening a journal, will be very inclined to do so after seeing how this is developing. But then again, I guess that's none of your concern. Nevertheless a pity for those who did have the potential.

 

[dbphoenix]

Apparently what you mean isn't sinking in. Perhaps you can put up a NQ chart of yesterday with an - imaginary or whatever kind of - plan with exactly what it is you mean by "state how and when..." and we can all start learning something. Last time I checked and did this (about 1 month ago), the same information I post today and yesterday was valid, but suddenly it isn't anymore. Making me doubt everything, makes me only doubt you.

*Edit: and please don't call me lazy this time, because I haven't ignored one single task or exercise you gave me. I doubt that any other newbies who where thinking of opening a journal, will be very inclined to do so after seeing how this is developing. But then again, I guess that's none of your concern. Nevertheless a pity for those who did have the potential.

The last time you did this, you said that you saw no point in posting a plan ahead of time, nor did you see any point in analyzing a chart in real time. You preferred to review the chart at the end of the day. However, this is not how one learns to trade in real time. So, yes, you have ignored tasks I've given you, or at least abandoned them without ever really having started them.

So, assuming that you plan to trade every single one of these levels,

Long term S/R levels:
6200,

2. State where you plan to go long or short after the open and why (no theory).

3. State what your stop is going to be and why (no theory).

4. State what your target(s) is(are) and why (no theory).

5. State how and where you're going to exit and why (no theory).

5950,

2. State where you plan to go long or short after the open and why (no theory).

3. State what your stop is going to be and why (no theory).

4. State what your target(s) is(are) and why (no theory).

5. State how and where you're going to exit and why (no theory).

5800,

2. State where you plan to go long or short after the open and why (no theory).

3. State what your stop is going to be and why (no theory).

4. State what your target(s) is(are) and why (no theory).

5. State how and where you're going to exit and why (no theory).

5750,

2. State where you plan to go long or short after the open and why (no theory).

3. State what your stop is going to be and why (no theory).

4. State what your target(s) is(are) and why (no theory).

5. State how and where you're going to exit and why (no theory).

And so on.

Of course, if you don't plan on trading each and every one of these levels, then your prep won't be this extensive. More likely there will be only two to four levels you intend to trade. But it's up to you to decide what those will be.

As I said, you're in control of the process.

 

[firewalker99]

2. State where you plan to go long or short after the open and why (no theory).

Doesn't "after the open" has to be changed into "during the whole day"?

 

[firewalker99]

August 24: Preparation...

August 24: Preparation

Setup:
- Put up a chart of the past months and draw long term S/R lines.
- Put up a chart of the last month and draw intermediate term S/R lines.
- Put up yesterday's chart and draw short term S/R lines.
- Before the day opens, make sure these lines are visible on today's chart.
- Draw new S/R lines throughout the day, wherever applicable.
- Pay closer attention when price moves towards a S/R zone.
- Check if price breaks this level or reverses from it.
- If it breaks through, check if it's happening on a WRB closing above the middle (doesn't have to be one single bar).
- Check how far price moves above the R (or below the S).
- If price moves away for 10 points, then wait for a retracement back to the line.
- When the retracement happens, there you have a trade.

Plan:

Long term S/R levels:
6200, 5950, 5800, 5750, 5575, 5400, 5300

Medium term S/R levels:
5850, 5825, 5775, 5750 ,5725, 5615

Short term S/R levels:
5830, 5810, 5795, 5772.50

Take only long and medium term S/R levels that appear on the chart of the next day and are within a "reasonable" range of the previous trading day ranges. E.g. 6200 or 5300 are outside of that.

5850: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5860 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5825: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5835 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5775: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5785 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5750: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5760 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5725: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5735 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

In turn, this depends on where price opens the next day: taking only long position of course when the trend is up and price is moving up through that resistance level, shorting when the general trend is down and prive breaks the support. For instance:

5775: Short after price drops through this level on downside and moves to 5765 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5750: Short after price drops through this level on downside and moves to 5740 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5725: Short after price drops through this level on downside and moves to 5715 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

Let me know what's still missing.

 

[firewalker99]

The last time you did this, you said that you saw no point in posting a plan ahead of time, nor did you see any point in analyzing a chart in real time. You preferred to review the chart at the end of the day. However, this is not how one learns to trade in real time. So, yes, you have ignored tasks I've given you, or at least abandoned them without ever really having started them.

When I said all those things, you perhaps could have replied with a clear statement as to why it is useful. If a teacher is trying to convince a student to learn his differential formulas by heart, the student will much better understand why he's asked to do that, if the teacher subsequently says differentials can be used in various applications, like calculating areas or volume of spheres, etc... Without that knowledge the student will remain unmotivated and only study it because he wants to pass his exam, without ever having learnt the purpose of it all.

 

[dbphoenix]

When I said all those things, you perhaps could have replied with a clear statement as to why it is useful. If a teacher is trying to convince a student to learn his differential formulas by heart, the student will much better understand why he's asked to do that, if the teacher subsequently says differentials can be used in various applications, like calculating areas or volume of spheres, etc... Without that knowledge the student will remain unmotivated and only study it because he wants to pass his exam, without ever having learnt the purpose of it all.

Tell you what, FW, if you want to continue arguing, I'm afraid you're going to have to go it alone. You have said repeatedly that you don't want to be told, you don't want explanations, you want to be involved, and yet you flee from involvement at every turn, at least until you finally stopped arguing and got down to the work, which I'll address in the next post.

As for your motivation, that's to stop failing and to stop losing money. If that's insufficient motivation, then the sheer joy of doing the work is not likely to be sufficient, either.

Now, can we get on with the work?

 

[dbphoenix]

August 24: Preparation

Setup:
- Put up a chart of the past months and draw long term S/R lines.
- Put up a chart of the last month and draw intermediate term S/R lines.
- Put up yesterday's chart and draw short term S/R lines.
- Before the day opens, make sure these lines are visible on today's chart.
- Draw new S/R lines throughout the day, wherever applicable.
- Pay closer attention when price moves towards a S/R zone.
- Check if price breaks this level or reverses from it.
- If it breaks through, check if it's happening on a WRB closing above the middle (doesn't have to be one single bar).
- Check how far price moves above the R (or below the S).
- If price moves away for 10 points, then wait for a retracement back to the line.
- When the retracement happens, there you have a entry possibility.
---

Plan:

Long term S/R levels:
6200, 5950, 5800, 5750, 5575, 5400, 5300

Medium term S/R levels:
5850, 5825, 5775, 5750 ,5725, 5615

Short term S/R levels:
5830, 5810, 5795, 5772.50

Take only long and medium term S/R levels that appear on the chart of the next day and are within a "reasonable" range of the previous trading day ranges. E.g. 6200 or 5300 are outside of that.

5850: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5860 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5825: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5835 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5775: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5785 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5750: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5760 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5725: Long after price breaks up through this level on upside and moves to 5735 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

In turn, this depends on where price opens the next day: taking only long position of course when the trend is up and price is moving up through that resistance level, shorting when the general trend is down and prive breaks the support. For instance:

5775: Short after price drops through this level on downside and moves to 5765 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5750: Short after price drops through this level on downside and moves to 5740 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

5725: Short after price drops through this level on downside and moves to 5715 or further, before recoiling back to the line. Stop is at ATR, first target is 2x ATR, second 3x ATR, because ATR is dynamic and objective. Enter with two contracts, two different targets, definining a minimum risk/reward of 1:2. After first target hit, move stop to BE. This then defines the exit.

Let me know what's still missing.

This is a remarkable improvement. For the most part, this tells you exactly what to do during the trading day (the "whole day" occurs after the open). However, there are a few areas that will likely cause problems (or caused, if all of this has by now passed.

One has to do with the proximity of the intermediate and short-term S/R levels. If you have S/R drawn at both 5825 and 5830, this is likely to cause hesitation at best, confusion and inaction at worst. You need to reconcile these two into one tradeable level. Ditto 5772.50 and 5775. If you make these reconciliations, you'll be able to combine the tactics for intermediate and short-term levels into a total of eight, rather than a total of ten. Having all of this done ahead of time will enable you, after you begin your work for the day, to focus on those levels where price is at the time and not have to formulate tactics on the fly when you are likely not at your best.

Two, if a given S/R level has not changed from one day to the next, there's no need to repeat all of this for the following day. Change only what changes. Leave alone what is not changed. Just transfer what is unchanged to the next day's plan as is.

Third, you don't state your ATR setting.

Fourth, I may have missed it, but you don't say how you're going to enter your trades. Are you going to set a limit order at your S/R level and ignore which way price is travelling? Or are you going to wait until it reverses and begins to move in the desired direction? If the latter, how many ticks (or whatever)? And what order type will you use? Why entry "possibility"? The point of this is to define the conditions under which you'll act. Either you'll enter or you won't. The time to determine whether it's go/no go is beforehand, not in real time.

Fifth, you don't explain how WRBs will affect your decision to go/not go, if at all. If they won't, introducing them will only add to the variables, and the fewer, the better.

Sixth (edit), it is not uncommon for newcomers to have trouble shifting from long to short and back again. If this is a problem, then write separate plans for each, just as you've done. If it's not a problem and you're used to flipping back and forth, there's no need to write two plans.

Congratulations. This is very nearly something that somebody could actually trade.

 

[dbphoenix]

Moving along, suggested alterations.

Note that S/R is not necessarily determined by swing points; it's determined by what levels cause price to fail. Here, price fails repeatedly to hold above 5825. That makes 5825 the problem for buyers, not 5830. Note also that 30 is tested twice; 25 is tested 7-8 times.

 

[firewalker99]

Moving along, suggested alterations.

Note that S/R is not necessarily determined by swing points; it's determined by what levels cause price to fail. Here, price fails repeatedly to hold above 5825. That makes 5825 the problem for buyers, not 5830. Note also that 30 is tested twice; 25 is tested 7-8 times.

I admit, I wasn't very happy with those lines myself. But, suppose at 1300 price did reach above 5830 only to fall back again. Wouldn't that make 5830 a more likely level? Also, 5785 seems to hold something because of the "congestion" near the end of the day... One Q, why draw the lower line at 5775 (5772.50), is this because that level is visible on the medium time frame or because it's a round number?

 

[firewalker99]

Q&A about plan

One has to do with the proximity of the intermediate and short-term S/R levels. If you have S/R drawn at both 5825 and 5830, this is likely to cause hesitation at best, confusion and inaction at worst. You need to reconcile these two into one tradeable level. Ditto 5772.50 and 5775. If you make these reconciliations, you'll be able to combine the tactics for intermediate and short-term levels into a total of eight, rather than a total of ten. Having all of this done ahead of time will enable you, after you begin your work for the day, to focus on those levels where price is at the time and not have to formulate tactics on the fly when you are likely not at your best.

Agreed, that's why I chose to take only intermediate and long term S/R levels, instead of short term.
At the end of today, when I'll put up the prep for the next day, I'll try to reconcile the S/R short term levels of today with the medium/long already posted.

Two, if a given S/R level has not changed from one day to the next, there's no need to repeat all of this for the following day. Change only what changes. Leave alone what is not changed. Just transfer what is unchanged to the next day's plan as is.

Ehm, you say "no need to repeat it" in the same paragraph as "transfer it to the next day's plan", sounds contradictory?

Third, you don't state your ATR setting.

ATR = 9. I haven't done any research into this but perhaps this is something worth taking a look at later on?

Fourth, I may have missed it, but you don't say how you're going to enter your trades. Are you going to set a limit order at your S/R level and ignore which way price is travelling? Or are you going to wait until it reverses and begins to move in the desired direction? If the latter, how many ticks (or whatever)? And what order type will you use? Why entry "possibility"? The point of this is to define the conditions under which you'll act.

I changed entry possibility into "trade", this is better suited. I'm going to use a limit order. If price moves further away instead of retracing, then I won't be looking for entering at a later time... So basically it has to move back to the S/R level after the breakthrough and the entry is taken exactly at that level. These rules will probably be too strict and not allow me to take the amount of trades I would like to see (3-5 a day).

Fifth, you don't explain how WRBs will affect your decision to go/not go, if at all. If they won't, introducing them will only add to the variables, and the fewer, the better.

First, I will want to see a breakthrough on a WRB closing above the mindle, as stated in the setup. If this doesn't happen than I'm not considering it a breakthrough. Second rule for the breakthrough was that price would move at minimum 10 points away before retracing. On the decision whether or not to enter depending on what the "retrace" looks like, I've decided to leave any references to the amount and form of bars/candles out of the equation... As many have said, the simpler the better?

Sixth (edit), it is not uncommon for newcomers to have trouble shifting from long to short and back again. If this is a problem, then write separate plans for each, just as you've done. If it's not a problem and you're used to flipping back and forth, there's no need to write two plans.

I think the basic principle is the same, it only depends on the trend. If price has been moving down, I won't be taking any longs, some goes for shorts in uptrend. Is this too vague ("trend",...)?

Congratulations. This is very nearly something that somebody could actually trade.

Honestly it feels like visualising the day beforehand without having any clue where it's going to go. But if it goes to certain levels, I'll know what to do and that's the point of the plan. Let's see where it takes me.

 

[dbphoenix]

I admit, I wasn't very happy with those lines myself. But, suppose at 1300 price did reach above 5830 only to fall back again. Wouldn't that make 5830 a more likely level?

According to your plan, if it reaches above 5830, it's not a trade anyway.

Also, 5785 seems to hold something because of the "congestion" near the end of the day...

I agree. But, for now, I'm only modifying what you already have, not doing it over to suit myself.

One Q, why draw the lower line at 5775 (5772.50), is this because that level is visible on the medium time frame or because it's a round number?

Partly because it's possible S/R on the intermediate-term (IT) timeframe. I, however, wouldn't draw it there at all, preferring 5785, as swing points in and of themselves do not usually serve as S/R. But this is your chart and your first day. See how it unfolds.

 

[firewalker99]

August 24 - 1st trade following the plan

Most of it is explained on the chart:
- Red lines: medium & long term S/R
- Green lines: short term (previous day) S/R

I'm thinking of removing the short term levels as they seem more confusing than helping and I'm only trading on the longer term levels? Already left 5772.50 out of it in favour of 5775.00.

Will post summary at EOD, this was only one time.

 

[dbphoenix]

Ehm, you say "no need to repeat it" in the same paragraph as "transfer it to the next day's plan", sounds contradictory?

You needn't repeat the exercise. You needn't do it again. You needn't start over. Just transfer what is still in play.

ATR = 9. I haven't done any research into this but perhaps this is something worth taking a look at later on?

Depends on whether or not you'll be happy with the results.

I changed entry possibility into "trade", this is better suited. I'm going to use a limit order. If price moves further away instead of retracing, then I won't be looking for entering at a later time... So basically it has to move back to the S/R level after the breakthrough and the entry is taken exactly at that level. These rules will probably be too strict and not allow me to take the amount of trades I would like to see (3-5 a day).

Actually, they're not strict enough. I still don't understand exactly what it is you're going to do (though by now, it's a little late since it's lunch over there). Are you going to place your limit order exactly at S/R and wait for price to hit it, at which point the order would be filled? That is, you'll be entering the trade at the point where price is going the wrong way?

Also, what do you mean by "if price moves further away instead of retracing"? Further away in the direction of the BO and not retracing to the S/R level?

First, I will want to see a breakthrough on a WRB closing above the mindle, as stated in the setup. If this doesn't happen than I'm not considering it a breakthrough. Second rule for the breakthrough was that price would move at minimum 10 points away before retracing. On the decision whether or not to enter depending on what the "retrace" looks like, I've decided to leave any references to the amount and form of bars/candles out of the equation... As many have said, the simpler the better?

So if price drops through S for 10 pts or more but it doesn't do so on a WRB, you won't consider it a "breakthrough"?

I think the basic principle is the same, it only depends on the trend. If price has been moving down, I won't be taking any longs, some goes for shorts in uptrend. Is this too vague ("trend",...)?

You'll find out.

Honestly it feels like visualising the day beforehand without having any clue where it's going to go.

That's what real-time trading and planning for it are about. Same goes for flight plans, battle plans, business plans, most any kind of plan.

But if it goes to certain levels, I'll know what to do and that's the point of the plan.

Yes, it is.

 

[dbphoenix]

Most of it is explained on the chart:
- Red lines: medium & long term S/R
- Green lines: short term (previous day) S/R

I'm thinking of removing the short term levels as they seem more confusing than helping and I'm only trading on the longer term levels? Already left 5772.50 out of it in favour of 5775.00.

Will post summary at EOD, this was only one time.

If you're not done for the day, consider posting your trades in as close to real time as possible, similar to what I did in the S/R thread.

Also, begin to keep track of winners, losers, profit, loss, etc.

 

[firewalker99]

Actually, they're not strict enough. I still don't understand exactly what it is you're going to do (though by now, it's a little late since it's lunch over there). Are you going to place your limit order exactly at S/R and wait for price to hit it, at which point the order would be filled?

Exactly at the S/R. So for instance exactly at 5775.00 and wait for price to hit it. Just like in the chart from post #86 where three entries (that happened to be profitable) were annotated.

That is, you'll be entering the trade at the point where price is going the wrong way?

Correct, otherwise I feel like I'd be chasing the market.

Also, what do you mean by "if price moves further away instead of retracing"? Further away in the direction of the BO and not retracing to the S/R level?

Yes, further away in the direction of the BO.

So if price drops through S for 10 pts or more but it doesn't do so on a WRB, you won't consider it a "breakthrough"?

This makes me want to remove all the WRB references alltogether...

 

[firewalker99]

If you're not done for the day, consider posting your trades in as close to real time as possible, similar to what I did in the S/R thread.

Also, begin to keep track of winners, losers, profit, loss, etc.

Should be possible in the mornings.
Shouldn't I wait before counting stats until the setup stops changing (like perhaps removing the WRB references)?

 

[dbphoenix]

Exactly at the S/R. So for instance exactly at 5775.00 and wait for price to hit it. Just like in the chart from post #86 where three entries (that happened to be profitable) were annotated.

Correct, otherwise I feel like I'd be chasing the market.

Yes, further away in the direction of the BO.

This makes me want to remove all the WRB references alltogether...

Given that there seem to be a number of people following this thread, I suggest you rework post 356 to make it current and post an update (don't just edit 356; that eliminates the record of the progression). If something requires explanation but would clutter the plan, use superscripts or asterisks and provide the explanation somewhere else in the post. This will enable you to keep track of exactly where you are and enable those who are interested in this to follow along.

 

[dbphoenix]

Should be possible in the mornings.
Shouldn't I wait before counting stats until the setup stops changing (like perhaps removing the WRB references)?

The setup will never stop changing. There will only be periods -- perhaps long periods -- where it all works perfectly. Get in the habit of knowing where you are at any given moment. Otherwise, you're more likely to get lazy and do stupid things.