Fibonacci-Trader Discussion Board

[barjon]

Paul/Trendie

We're getting well off the Fibonacci theme here, but it's interesting (maybe a new thread??).

The speed of reaction by each individual within the majority maybe results in a bell curve - if you follow the earlier reactors well before the peak ok, but if you're slow and follow after the peak you're doomed!!!

What's perhaps more important - and really stark for individual stocks - is what the minority intend (eg: someone sitting in the background with 10m shares to sell/buy) and that is unrecorded, uncharted and unknown although a smart operator can spot the clues.

 

[trendie]

Whats going on with the Dow ?!

I was expecting it to hit 9842 by August 8th.

Its going the wrong way !

 

[Trader333]

trendie,

If it were that easy we would all be retired by next Tuesday.


Paul

 

[firehorse]

Whats going on with the Dow ?!

I was expecting it to hit 9842 by August 8th.

Its going the wrong way !

From reading all the advice patiently given by experienced traders who make money, the market is never wrong, you are!

The market is not your model/map of the market. Your 'map' of the market is just that, a map, not the real thing.

Using the analogy, if you travel using your map to a location. If the location is not where it is on the map, is the map wrong or the location?

Someone else coined this as an "information shock" that the market constantly delivers.

If you can't cope with "information shocks" then you could get disorientated and make even more mistakes.

Regards

 

[trendie]

Only messing about firehorse.

I am out after a good short run !
Overall trend DOWN.
Market is retracing.

Waiting for an appropriate entry WHEN ( or IF ) trend resumes.

 

[JungleJim]

Hi JungelJim,

Do you know of any good websites that give a synopsis of Fib Time Analysis ?

Google keeps throwing up the book you describe - which is fine - buy I want an e-book first !
Or I get a once in a lifetime "was $250, but for YOU, $47" type stuff.

I am curious of the principles of Time Analysis.

thanks

Dear Trendie,

If you're interested, I did a PowerPoint presentation on various aspects of Fib numbers, right from the basics up to Time-Goal Analysis (but not include Eclipses and Spirals). The presentation also touches on my thoughts on why it works. If you are interested, and have a fast enough e-mail, privately message me and I'll send you the whole presentation. If you are still after more information then we can talk further after that.

Regards, JungleJim

 

[Fluke]

Jungle Jim.
I have been studying the fibs retracements for about 18 months now and have been reading Larry Pesavento's book on this.I would now like to study in more depth the fibs time periods etc an am thinking of buying the book that you recommended, by Robert Fischer.
Would it be possible for you to send me a copy of the presentation you have offered to Tredie.
I have sent you a PM and would like talk more about this subject if thats OK with you.

 

[AlexAndrews]

Hi,

I do use Fib levels as indicators, but I haven't had any formal training in the subject. Could some kind enlighten me a bit more about a320's post #68:

SQ9* is based on degrees of a circle... 1.0 = 180 degree change (half) 0 .5 = 90 degree (quarter) Change ect.... main ones are the cardinal points.(90,180.270 & 360)

Simply add or subtract these SQ9* Cardinal values to the ( square root) of a swing high/low price to find Resistance (add) / Support (subtract) like the examples show.

Square root of 1155 = 33.9853

33.9853 - 1 for the 180' = 32.9853
32.9853 * 32.9853 = 1088.03 (support)

To find the Resistance at 180 degree:

Square root of 1155 = 33.9853

33.9853 +1 for the 180' = 34.9853
34.9853 * 34.9853 = 1223.971 (Resistance)

+/- 0.25 = 45' of the circle.( 8ths)
I always keep an eye on 135' 225' & 255'
as these are close to 38.2 / 61.8/70.7 degrees of the circle..

Basically, I didn't understand where the 1155 figure came from - is this just a notional peak (or trough) level [for illustration purposes]? And the 1088.03 figure is the support level if 1155 is a peak, whereas the 1223.97 figure is the resistance level if 1155 is a trough? It sounds interesting, but I would like to understand what is being proposed. And what adjustment numbers are the important ones - 1, 1/2 & 1 1/2, 1/4 & 3/4 & 1 1/4 & 1 3/4?

Thanks,

Alex

 

[trendie]

Hi AlexAndrews,

http://www.lambertganneducators.com/pages/newsletters_archive.php

Some general info on Gann, and worked examples.

Hope it helps.

 

[a320]

I posed that a while ago so the 1155 is a pure notional figure as an example.....

Its based on the 360' of a circle so the important points are the cardinals...(N E S W.)90' 180' 270' 360'

.25 represents 45 degrees..... there for 0.50 would be 90'.. 1.0 would = 180' ect....

Lets take the Monday 26th... 1078.78 SPX low...

1078.78 square root = 32.85

32.85 + 0.25 = 33.1 ( add for res)
33.1*33.1= 1095.61 ... so 1096 area is the first point of resistance which it hit on the 27th of July


CJ

 

[AlexAndrews]

Cheers trendie and a320. So the adjustment numbers are the angles of a circle (in radians) as multiples of pi? Should give me something new to play with

Alex

 

[trendie]

The Dow has closed.
Although it is UP 10 points - it has failed to breach yesterdays HIGH of 10163.

This has given rise to a PIVOT HIGH of 10163 ? ( or must the day end down for it to be true pivot ? )

Has the retracement ended ?

Will the overall DOWN trend continue next week ?

Will the Dow still hit the "expected" value of 9842 by August 8th ?

I wonder ......

 

[AlexAndrews]

Hi guys,

I was having a wee think about this while I was having a wee (well, a shave actually), especially wrt its arguable validity. What struck me was the fairly arbitrary choice of adjustment constants (1, 1/2, 1 1/2, etc). I mean, say a share peaks at £16 or 1600p. Now, to determine the support level, do you take the square root of 16, subtract 1, and square the result, or do you take the square root of 1600p, subtract 1, and square the result? I guess what I'm saying is that the units you are dealing in suddenly become of critical importance, which, with Fib, they don't (at least, not the way I use Fib).

Interested to hear your views on this.

Alex

 

[zeeta]

Help for a mere novice

The Dow has closed.
Although it is UP 10 points - it has failed to breach yesterdays HIGH of 10163.

This has given rise to a PIVOT HIGH of 10163 ? ( or must the day end down for it to be true pivot ? )

Has the retracement ended ?

Will the overall DOWN trend continue next week ?

Will the Dow still hit the "expected" value of 9842 by August 8th ?

I wonder ......

Trendie

just for my feeble brain, how did you calculate the 9842 value?

Cath

 

[trendie]

Actually, I was trying to be provocative! Didnt work!

Its from Gann - not Fibs.

I thought I would compare Gann methods against Fibs, and let them fight it out.

I am at "work", so my charts are not available. May give an answer this evening.

As as aside, what is your analysis ?

 

[trendie]

Zeeta,

have you read a320s recent calculation for Gann support ?
( on previous page )

What I did was similar, except by a factor of 10 !!

I took recent high, around 10500, June 20th approx.

I divide by 10, to get 1050.

SQRT = 32.4
Subtract 1 = 31.4
SQR = 9840 or something. ( then times by 10 to get back to real Dow )

I was experimenting to see if a factor of 10 gave indicators of stronger support/resistance on larger timescales.

Thats where I got it from !!

 

[trendie]

Looks like today may be the pivot high I have been waiting for !!
Yesterdays high was 10203.
If it doesnt look like getting breached I will initiate a SELL on the DOW.
With a stop-loss of 10260.

PS: Previous post about 10163 was based on duff data ( MarketBrowser )

 

[trendie]

Yesterday was good, wasnt it.
The Dow fell so much, it is worth moving the Stop-loss the break-even.
( based on closing price of Aug 3rd ).

Its all profit now.
But with such a sharp dive, will there be a reaction today?
Dont know.

 

[trendie]

Lost my nerve.
Take profits.
Around 9860.

Wait for next entry.

 

[trendie]

The Dow has closed.
Although it is UP 10 points - it has failed to breach yesterdays HIGH of 10163.

This has given rise to a PIVOT HIGH of 10163 ? ( or must the day end down for it to be true pivot ? )

Has the retracement ended ?

Will the overall DOWN trend continue next week ?

Will the Dow still hit the "expected" value of 9842 by August 8th ?

I wonder ......

DAMN, DAMN, DAMN !!

Wish I had entered the Dow competition !!

DAMN AND BLAST !!