Exiting a trade is as important as entering it

[barjon]

Jesus Christ on a crystal meth binge how can a forum sink to such lows so quickly

This isn't even lulz !

Well it is the Christmas silly season, Hare. Have a good one and all the best for 2013.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Jesus Christ on a crystal meth binge how can a forum sink to such lows so quickly

This isn't even lulz !

As usual, you make a point of not contributing but take an interest in the running of the forum instead. You should get into that kind of business. I can tell you will be good in it, and it will save you from tossing coins while finding the result is always strangely less than 50%, doesn't matter which way you bet.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Yes, but how much and when I don't disagree that an elegant entry is nice to have since it sets you off on the right track, but it doesn't move your account one jot. It's your exits that do that and they are the crucial determinant in how your account progresses.

Just my potential trend continuation after retracement thing that I've never varied from since I began thirty odd years ago.

Actually, the entry determines how much your account moves in the negative direction. I hope you are not one of those who believes that since you haven't yet exited, therefore your account hasn't moved.

My belief is that by getting the entry right, it wouldn't matter how you exit - you could even do a morris dance while exiting. Like so:

Just because you have used it for 30 years doesn't mean the method is good. But my guess is that it worked less than 50% of the time. This is just natural. The market loves the predictability of self fulfilling prophecies and defeat them when the profit is good.

 

[the hare]

My belief is that by getting the entry right, it wouldn't matter how you exit.

Beliefs are good, and I believe even necessary, but you have to TEST them.

Even the zoo has entries totally covered, ever wonder why no one discusses exits

 

[BeginnerJoe]

but you have to TEST them.

You have tossed so many coins that they have blinded you, or at least you must be blurry-eyed.

What made you think I haven't tested them. Why else would I be here offering to make people untold riches for free ? Barjon can confirm I am not some kind of a secret vendor.

 

[SlowlyButSurely]

Entries are important but so too are exits unless you are scalping and have a small defined range of profit/loss targets.

To be truly profitable you need to master both and when the markets behave irrationally you will need to be able to manage your trades extremely well to come out ahead.

 

[barjon]

Actually, the entry determines how much your account moves in the negative direction. I hope you are not one of those who believes that since you haven't yet exited, therefore your account hasn't moved.

My belief is that by getting the entry right, it wouldn't matter how you exit - you could even do a morris dance while exiting.

Just because you have used it for 30 years doesn't mean the method is good. But my guess is that it worked less than 50% of the time. This is just natural. The market loves the predictability of self fulfilling prophecies and defeat them when the profit is good.

Well it does finalise the risk you are prepared to run with and the lower the risk you can manage the better, if that's what you meant. Nonetheless a good trader will manage things much better than a poor one from then on and that's got nothing whatsoever to do with the entry, but everything to do with the exit.

You're right about 30 years - but it does give me a pretty full cupboard of "probability" stats to work with and your guess is pretty way out.

Lastly, the market doesn't love anything but, even if it did, it would take scant notice of the sort of money I throw at it

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Well it does finalise the risk you are prepared to run with and the lower the risk you can manage the better, if that's what you meant. Nonetheless a good trader will manage things much better than a poor one from then on and that's got nothing whatsoever to do with the entry, but everything to do with the exit.

If you spend too much time on managing, your entry is probably wrong. I found my best trades came to me while I slept and unable to do any managing. This is what good entry can do for you, you wake up and the pips are waiting for you. If you so choose, you could then do a morris dance exit strat or any other strat you fancy. It's not critical.

You're right about 30 years - but it does give me a pretty full cupboard of "probability" stats to work with and your guess is pretty way out.

Can you tell us, or is it a secret ?

Lastly, the market doesn't love anything but, even if it did, it would take scant notice of the sort of money I throw at it

Well the thing with self fulfilling prophecies is that it takes a crowd to work. Even though your money is small, the aggregate sum of your fellow prophecees would be substantial and worth a bite for someone or someone-s big enough.

If your technique is so good, why not increase bet size ? 30 years of compounding could easily afford you that.

 

[15 min tlb]

Exiting is completely unimportant relative to the importance of entry. I can prove it by making anyone rich beyond their wildest dreams if they give me a high probability entry method. I will need nothing else from them and they can keep the secrets of the rest of their technique. So, you have nothing to lose to take on my offer.

If somebody gave you a high probability method , would you know it is high probability ? There are a few high probability methods for free on this forum.

 

[15 min tlb]

If your technique is so good, why not increase bet size ? 30 years of compounding could easily afford you that.

He must be a billionaire by now and trading must be main source of income.

 

[15 min tlb]

High probability of what, BJ? It's one of those phrases happily bandied around that's pretty meaningless.

I read the book " High probability trading " by Marcel Link , I later realized he makes money from selling education from his site.His book is filled with indicators and indicator based strategies and some systems which failed.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

If somebody gave you a high probability method , would you know it is high probability ?

Why do I need to know ? If someone give me a high probability method, I will make them rich. If they don't, they don't get rich. Either way I don't lose.

So let's hear it. Where and what are these high probability methods ? But let's exclude the box break out method for now. It's not yet proven, the profit is too low for my liking, and too many loosers for my liking. I am looking for a high probability winner entry strat - the more winners the better. Barjon's method could be pretty good. But can't tell how good until we get some stats.

He must be a billionaire by now and trading must be main source of income.

You are way too cynical. I'd wait for his bank statement before coming to a conclusion. If he doesn't show then we don't have a conclusion.

 

[SlowlyButSurely]

Hi Joe, just a quick Q do you trade your own system at the moment?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Hi Joe, just a quick Q do you trade your own system at the moment?

I think so. I haven't seen a youtube video describing a strat that involves the trader using sleep as a trade management technique.

 

[FXhunter]

Exiting is completely unimportant relative to the importance of entry. I can prove it by making anyone rich beyond their wildest dreams if they give me a high probability entry method. I will need nothing else from them and they can keep the secrets of the rest of their technique. So, you have nothing to lose to take on my offer.

I disagree that the exit is completely unimportant. If it's not important where will you place the stop, or you say you don't need a stop?
What is a high probability entry?
Maybe I got it wrong, but will you enter a trade and whenever you will decide to close it, it will be OK?

I my opinion saying high probability trading is more correct than saying high probability entry. It can be a high probability setup relatively to the exit.
When I tested my method I saw that if I was scalping only 10 ticks I was getting about 75% of winning trades.(In my opinion this is high probability trading) If I was scalping more ticks I was getting a lower percentage of winning trades.
When I tried a trailing stop, I got a even a lower percentage of the winning trades, while the profits increased. (The total profit increased, but with bigger draw downs).

So the idea is that based on the exit, "the probability of the setup" changes.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

I disagree that the exit is completely unimportant. If it's not important where will you place the stop, or you say you don't need a stop?
What is a high probability entry?
Maybe I got it wrong, but will you enter a trade and whenever you will decide to close it, it will be OK?

I my opinion saying high probability trading is more correct than saying high probability entry. It can be a high probability setup relatively to the exit.
When I tested my method I saw that if I was scalping only 10 ticks I was getting about 75% of winning trades.(In my opinion this is high probability trading) If I was scalping more ticks I was getting a lower percentage of winning trades.
When I tried a trailing stop, I got a even a lower percentage of the winning trades, while the profits increased. (The total profit increased, but with bigger draw downs).

So the idea is that based on the exit, "the probability of the setup" changes.

10 ticks 75% of the time is what I call high probability entry. Would you like a partnership deal ? You give me the entry method, and I make you rich. I don't need your exit strat or trade management. But I will need the drawdown to be less than 10 ticks.

 

[FXhunter]

I read the book " High probability trading " by Marcel Link , I later realized he makes money from selling education from his site.His book is filled with indicators and indicator based strategies and some systems which failed.

Fortunately I didn't finish to read this book I didn't know that he made money by selling education. I even saw that this book was high rated on amazon. So I thought it was a good one.

 

[FXhunter]

10 ticks 75% of the time is what I call high probability entry. Would you like a partnership deal ? You give me the entry method, and I make you rich. I don't need your exit strat or trade management. But I will need the drawdown to be less than 10 ticks.

Sounds interesting, how can you make me rich if I give you the entry method?
I mean, I can become rich(it's a long process) by following my rules and looking for other methods.

I used the stop between 10 and 15 ticks but it happened only once that the price was one tick away from my stop and then it turned back and I closed it into profit, I didn't test the method using the fixed 10 ticks stop, but I think that when I risk 15 ticks I can take a bigger profit, because I place the stop based on the volatility.
Another thing I should tell you is that this method gave me only about 40 trades this year. I trade only on a specific future contract, on the 3 minutes chart and for half an hour a day(=10 bars) I don't know if it performs the same on other contracts(or trading pairs if we talk about FOREX).

If you still think it could be the entry method you are searching for, PM me because I think we have strayed from the topic

 

[SlowlyButSurely]

Interesting...

 

[15 min tlb]

So let's hear it. Where and what are these high probability methods ? But let's exclude the box break out method for now. It's not yet proven, the profit is too low for my liking, and too many loosers for my liking. I am looking for a high probability winner entry strat - the more winners the better. Barjon's method could be pretty good. But can't tell how good until we get some stats.

It takes the experienced not beginners , to know a high probability method.Who am I to judge who is a beginner?