ES Trading

[new_trader]

Bubble in bubbles!

Bitcoin surges past $600, House prices are rising, stock markets are hitting record highs, energy prices are rising and yet people still believe the Central Planners when they say there is no inflation. No inflation? These are all bubbles that the Central Planners have created with their cheap money policies.

People are dumb, but I didn’t realise they are actually far dumber than I thought! When these bubbles burst, and they will, the Central Planners will blame it all on Capitalism and all the Socialist dunces will cheer along in support..."More taxes and more regulation" they will scream..."Kill the rich, cut their throats, spill their blood, take their stuff"


Again, I dedicate this song to ‘people’...people who think this is a new era...a party that will never end...an age of permanent prosperity...

People keep selling gold and I keep buying.

[email protected]










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[new_trader]

darktone

Good to see that darktone is reading my journal and getting a much needed lesson about money, economics and the markets.

 

[new_trader]

Central Planners taking stabs in the dark.

Fed Ponders How to Temper Tapering Without Rate Increase
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...to-temper-tapering-without-rate-increase.html

The Fed’s failure so far to convince investors that tapering on its own doesn’t constitute a tightening of policy creates the risk of more market volatility as the central bank communicates about tools its never used.

“Now, this is challenging: We’re in unprecedented circumstances, we’re using policies that have never really been tried before -- and multiple policies -- and we’re trying to explain to the public how we intend to conduct these policies,”

And there you have it, a flat-out admission that the Central Planners have absolutely no idea what they are doing. That doesn't stop the left-wing lunatics praising them though...even dunces in this forum are aware that you need to back test a system or methodology before going live with it or you risk blowing your account. But when it's taxpayers money, who gives a sh!t ay? If only these morons studied a little bit of history...and economics...Unfortunately, this is what you get when Central Planners have complete control of the money supply.

All the smart economists (i.e. Non-Keynesians) warned that their policies were flawed from the very beginning.








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[new_trader]

Gold and America's default

Charles de Gaulle, Monetary Crisis Ghost of 1965

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[new_trader]

Did someone say bubble?

Bitcoin surges past $600, House prices are rising, stock markets are hitting record highs, energy prices are rising and yet people still believe the Central Planners when they say there is no inflation. No inflation? These are all bubbles that the Central Planners have created with their cheap money policies.

People are dumb, but I didn’t realise they are actually far dumber than I thought! When these bubbles burst, and they will, the Central Planners will blame it all on Capitalism and all the Socialist dunces will cheer along in support..."More taxes and more regulation" they will scream..."Kill the rich, cut their throats, spill their blood, take their stuff"


Again, I dedicate this song to ‘people’...people who think this is a new era...a party that will never end...an age of permanent prosperity...

People keep selling gold and I keep buying.

[email protected]

Anxiety Over Asset Bubbles From Homes to Internet Rising in Poll
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...es-from-homes-to-internet-rising-in-poll.html

Eighty-two percent of the responding investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers said Internet and social media shares are either at or near unsustainable levels. Seventy-three percent said the same of Chinese house prices and 69 percent identified London homes as already or almost frothy. They were less concerned about U.S. housing, with 31 percent seeing prices approaching or at excessive levels.


“Liquidity is still plentiful and central banks are reflating,” said Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in London and a poll participant. “Property is the obvious bubble candidate.”

The survey sounds the alert that five years since a credit-driven financial crisis, investors are spotting speculative excesses in a potential challenge to their portfolios and policy makers. Exuberance is more muted elsewhere as those surveyed tempered their optimism about the outlook for the world economy, equities and U.S. assets since the last survey in September.

This won't stop the Central Planners though. They will deny the existence of any bubbles and just keep "stimulating". When the bubbles burst it will be the ol'..."Nobody could have seen this coming"...."Capitalism is to blame" nonsense.







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[new_trader]

Gold

Gold Analysts Most Bearish Since June on Fed Taper: Commodities
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...rish-since-june-on-fed-taper-commodities.html

The metal is heading for its first annual drop in 13 years as some investors lost faith in gold as a store of value

You will read this line in almost every article Bloomberg publishes about gold from now until the end of the year. I have no doubt that gold will not rally before the end of 2013....the fanfare from the mainstream media will be "The end of gold"


I keep buying


GCZ3 @1242.3





29,543

 

[new_trader]

Gold is money

Iran Agrees to Deal With Powers to Curb Nuclear Work
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...deal-with-powers-to-rein-in-nuclear-work.html

Some curbs on gold trading also will be removed. While Iran will be allowed to buy and sell precious metals, including gold, it will be barred from accepting them as payment for oil or any other sanctioned transaction, according to the officials.

It requires "world powers" to prevent a country from accepting gold as payment...yet there are dunces who will still insist that gold is not money. I suppose it isn't if someone holds a gun to your head and forces you to accept $US. Let's see them try it with China.







29,610

 

[new_trader]

Yellow Alert

There are ominous signs that a stock market correction is due in the coming months, most likely around mid 2014. I will be watching for the 1950.00 level on the ES (E-mini S&P500). I have been selling 50% of any stock holding in my portfolio that has made a +100% gain over the last 4 years and I have been buying gold with the profit. I will continue to do so.


ESZ3 @ 1806.25

GCZ3 @ 1232.1






29,646

 

[new_trader]

Gold Analysts Most Bearish Since June on Fed Taper: Commodities
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...rish-since-june-on-fed-taper-commodities.html

The metal is heading for its first annual drop in 13 years as some investors lost faith in gold as a store of value

You will read this line in almost every article Bloomberg publishes about gold from now until the end of the year. I have no doubt that gold will not rally before the end of 2013....the fanfare from the mainstream media will be "The end of gold"


I keep buying


GCZ3 @1242.3

Iran Gold Sanctions Easing Seen Having Little Price Impact
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...sing-seen-having-little-impact-on-prices.html

Prices plunged 27 percent this year, headed for the biggest annual drop in three decades, as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value.

I knew Bloomberg wouldn't let me down

Just in case you forgot: Gold is headed for the biggest annual drop in three decades, as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value.






29,668

 

[new_trader]

Gold

The metal is heading for its first annual drop in 13 years as some investors lost faith in gold as a store of value

You will read this line in almost every article Bloomberg publishes about gold from now until the end of the year. I have no doubt that gold will not rally before the end of 2013....the fanfare from the mainstream media will be "The end of gold"

Iran Gold Sanctions Easing Seen Having Little Price Impact
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...sing-seen-having-little-impact-on-prices.html


I knew Bloomberg wouldn't let me down

Just in case you forgot: Gold is headed for the biggest annual drop in three decades, as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value.

Gold Bears Persist as Prices Near Year’s Low on Fed: Commodities
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...rices-near-year-s-low-on-fed-commodities.html

Gold is poised for its first annual drop since 2000. Bullion slid this year as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value

And why is gold headed for the first annual drop [insert time period] as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value? According to Bloomberg, it is because the U.S FEDERAL RESERVE might, possibly, is considering tapering its monthly bond purchases.

Bloomberg can't even see the contradiction in what they are saying.



GCZ3 @ 1242.4







29,885

 

[new_trader]

Week 49

This is the price action I am anticipating on the ESZ3 this week. If my figuring is correct, the trade to take will be a breakout @ 1811.00. But this isn't a simple threshold, mechanical trade, I will be studying the price action to confirm.

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[new_trader]

Despite all the fanfare of the mainstream media I don't believe it is the end of the Gold bull market and it looks like it may be nearing the bottom of this major correction. There are signs that all the weak hands have been shaken out and it is now a professionals market. At this price (GCQ 1249.30) most of the marginal gold miners are unsustainable and it is now approaching the all-in sustaining cash costs of even the largest mining companies. Some of the largest mining companies are already laying off workers and closing down inefficient mining operations. If the price falls much below US$1100/oz then some of the largest gold mining companies in the most economically feasible countries will probably start shutting down operations. IMO this is the 1970's all over again and anyone who has done their research will know exactly what I mean.

If my figuring is right, then $1000-1100 marks the bottom line for the gold price and I doubt it can stay that low for very long. The next 3-4 months will be the crucial test. If it plays out the way I figure then without a doubt the new price target for gold will be US$5000/oz.

Average total cash costs rose by 7%, to $782/oz, a new record high on a half year basis. All-in costs continued to escalate and are estimated to have risen to $1,250/oz.

But the Central Planners will tell you there is no inflation



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[new_trader]

Target 1950

This is the price action I am anticipating on the ESZ3 this week. If my figuring is correct, the trade to take will be a breakout @ 1811.00. But this isn't a simple threshold, mechanical trade, I will be studying the price action to confirm.

This action is still intact and will most likely play out after the FOMC meeting decision December 17-18/2013.

I have a guest through most of December and will be doing some travelling so I might not be able to update this journal or monitor the market. Unless things change significantly I still figure the market is poised for a breakout. My target for the ES remains @ 1950.

As always, do your own research.








30,179

 

[new_trader]

Holiday

Holiday over.

It appears as if the ES has made the breakout I figured. Target remains @ 1950 unless the market gives me an indication that the situation has changed.


Some holiday pictures.

Tromsø - 1

Tromsø - 2

Tromsø - 3

Tromsø - 4

The above 4 pictures are in Tromsø, Norway. This is a town located inside the Arctic Circle and @ 69.683403°N it is the furthest North I have ever been. The sun never rises in winter and it is one of the best places to see the Northern lights when conditions are right. Needless to say the conditions weren’t right otherwise I would have posted a picture.

Lonely planet perfectly summarises what I have to say about my experience in Tromsø.
http://www.lonelyplanet.com/norway

Everything about Norway is first class; you can expect nothing less from a truly wealthy country (not one that needs to print money). I could easily live there and I am seriously considering it. I will definitely visit again.


Albefeira - 1

Albefeira - 2

The above 2 pictures are in Albefeira (The Algarve), Portugal.

http://www.lonelyplanet.com/portugal/the-algarve


Being December there weren’t any crowds or drunken revellers. Very nice!





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[new_trader]

The "end" for gold?

Gold Analysts Most Bearish Since June on Fed Taper: Commodities
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...rish-since-june-on-fed-taper-commodities.html



You will read this line in almost every article Bloomberg publishes about gold from now until the end of the year. I have no doubt that gold will not rally before the end of 2013....the fanfare from the mainstream media will be "The end of gold"


I keep buying

Gold Surrenders Streak as Investors Embrace Stocks With 20% Gain
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...as-investors-embrace-stocks-with-20-gain.html

Investors’ 12-year love affair with gold ended in 2013 as they abandoned the precious metal for stock markets in the world’s developed economies, lifting global share prices by the most in four years.

“Investors were heartbroken by gold,” Krosby, whose firm oversees more than $1 trillion, said in a telephone interview from Newark, New Jersey. “The selloff was one of the deepest purges in an asset class that I’ve seen. They went into gold because they saw the momentum continuing. Until it stopped. And it stopped violently.”

Demand for bullion as a preserver of wealth collapsed as the global economy showed signs of improving and central bank stimulus, led by the Federal Reserve, failed to ignite the runaway inflation that billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson and other gold buyers anticipated.

The obituaries for Gold have begun! I knew Bloomberg wouldn't let me down, again. Bloomberg makes it so easy to know everything in advance.

Anyone who understands gold can clearly see the straw man case against gold being disseminated by the mainstream media.


Close 31/12/2013: GCG4 @ 1204.8


I keep buying




30,804

 

[new_trader]

Inflation

I made the following post, Mar 30, 2012, 8:27am during a debate with a modern economist who hasn't got the foggiest idea about inflation.

Greater motivation hinges on whether or not you believe rising prices are a consequence of inflating the money supply. This then takes us back to the original discussion on the interest rates Governments pay on their bonds. If investors suspect that a Government is over inflating they will demand higher interest rates on the bonds. Don’t bother replying because I already know you disagree so it’s just a moot point.

My main point about shadow stats is that they earn a living by charging customers money for their statistical analysis, so if it is inaccurate or unreliable, shadow stats will go out of business. If the Governments statistics are inaccurate or unreliable, other people go out of business. Who will hold the Government to account? The average person doesn’t even understand inflation let alone bother to keep track of it.

The point about the CPI and PPI brings me back again to whether or not you believe Governments are creating inflation (inflating the money supply) and which planet I live on. I contend that I live on planet earth and that Governments are massively inflating. The fact that some producers are absorbing the inflation in reduced margins means that the inflation hasn’t fully filtered through to consumers yet and therefore won’t show up in the CPI. Producers may be absorbing inflation in other ways like shrinking packaging or a reduction in quality. These things don’t show up in CPI but is still evidence of inflation. I assert that inflation will eventually become too high for producers to absorb. However, it doesn’t escape my attention that other countries are experiencing higher inflation than reported in the U.K and the U.S...two of the biggest debtor countries on the planet...surprise surprise...

Anyway, I’m not debating this any further. This is now a case of wait and see.

Article Published: Saturday, 4 Jan 2014 | 11:35 AM ET
Chobani yogurt is latest victim in shrinking grocery case
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101309099

Chobani is by far not the only company shrinking its products without lowering the price. Such downsizes are a common strategy among consumer package goods companies looking to pass along rising input costs without hiking prices by shrinking everything from cake mixes to Kleenex.

Interestingly, when raw material costs rise substantially, only 12 percent of consumers prefer this strategy, according to a 2012 Nielsen survey. The largest proportion, 38 percent, said it they would prefer a larger economy size with a lower unit price.

Yet the dunces still believe the Government when they tell then there is no inflation...or worse...they are terrified of the deflation bogeyman!:-0

The only thing deflating is product sizes!


Sell gold!











30,970

 

[new_trader]

Orwellian World

More evidence that we live in an Orwellian World full of contradicting central planning!

Hunt for Food Sends Venezuelans to Colombian Border Towns
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ds-venezuelans-to-colombian-border-towns.html

A weaker bolivar reduces Venezuelans’ purchasing power by making imported goods more expensive.

Our Central planners say that a weak currency boosts exports! Who gives a sh!t about the locals ay?

Too Cheap
“To reduce demand and lower consumption, the government needs to devalue,” said Efrain Velazquez, president of the National Economic Committee, a group of academics and business leaders created in 1946 to advise the government. “Regulated goods are just too cheap to stay on the shelves.”

Yes, you've read that correctly...things are too cheap to stay on the shelves!

But what is the one thing that our Central planners fear more than anything else? The scourge that will cause consumers to "hold off" purchases which will reduce demand and cause widespread suffering throughout the economy...yes, you guessed it...falling prices...the dreaded "Deflation" bogeyman!

Price controls introduced by Maduro’s predecessor Hugo Chavez in 2003 to boost nutrition among the poor have fueled demand for staples such as flour, rice and milk as shoppers snap up products whose prices don’t change amid 56 percent annual inflation, the highest in the world.

Dozens of people take shifts to line up outside supermarkets in Maracaibo, a city of 2.1 million people located 800 kilometers (500 miles) west of the capital, waiting for the next delivery of regulated goods. The new stock is bought up as soon as it hits the shelves, leaving shops barren of products such as meat, grains and toilet paper.

As all the good economists (Non-Keynesians) have warned; PRICE CONTROLS CAUSE SHORTAGES. This is what happens when Governments interfere with the free-market.

Which would you prefer: Paying a little more for your milk (according to true supply and demand and not government inflation) or waiting in line outside a supermarket for hours and hours and hoping there is a pint left when you finally get there?

Maduro has urged citizens to abstain from “nervous buying” of imports, saying on state television Jan. 6 that “consumerism is an addiction that destroys the human being.”

But what our Central planners intent on "stimulating"? What accounts for over 70% of the US GDP?

CONSUMER SPENDING!​

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[new_trader]

Crane Index

I have noticed more and more cranes popping up in my area. Last weekend on a trip up to London I noticed cranes in almost every town along the way. What else would you expect with artificially low interest rates combined with a Government intent on creating another property bubble? Rising property prices are a good vote winner even if it is bad economics.

The last time I remember seeing lots and lots of cranes was right before the last Global Financial Crisis...the panic of 2008! I now think it would be a good idea to have a Crane Index as a leading indicator for a property bubble. The higher the number of cranes, the closer we are to another property bubble about to burst and bring on another financial crisis.

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[new_trader]

Es: 2014[03]

If my figuring is correct, this is the price action for the ES this coming trading week. It may be revised. As always, do your own research!

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[new_trader]

How traders spend their money

This cracks me up

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