ES Trading

[new_trader]

US Treasuries

Europe Stocks Rise With Treasuries as Gold Declines
Europe Stocks Rise With Treasuries as Gold Declines - Bloomberg

Gold led commodities lower while Treasuries rose for the first time in eight days.

The Endgame?

This is the dynamic that IMO is on the way to reversing course. Everyone...and I mean everyone from mainstream analysts to trade2win legendary members are talking about the death of the gold bull market, yet none of them are talking about the 30 year bond bubble. I haven't seen one thread talking about the 'end of the bond bubble'.

Yields have been falling for 30 years...yes...roughly since the time the gold price peaked in 1980. Is it just coincidence that gold went through a 20 year bear market as yields were falling? Why would you own gold when Treasuries were rising and paying interest? They were a good, safe bet. Where do they go from here? Does anyone believe that US Treasuries yields can be pushed back down without killing the $US dollar?


The FED hasn't even started to taper yet. I suppose it will take an MMT numbskull to explain it...like the dot com experts were telling us back in 2000 it's a "new economy"




12:20 GCQ3 @ 1230.80







24,601

 

[new_trader]

Treasuries

Markets are selling off on the rumour that the U.S FED will slow down its inflationary policy...a little bit. Naturally, the clueless frightened public thinks that this means the end for the gold bull market. This also means new_trader can buy much more gold at low low prices!

My prediction: Interest rates are going to start rising and THAT is going to frighten the US Government much more than this minor correction is scaring the TRUE gold bugs. The taper talk will taper and the threat of recession and deflation will be hitting the headlines again. This will continue until the FED can't lie about inflation anymore, it will be so obvious that even a dumbass t2w "Legendary Member" will acknowledge it.

This isn't necessarily the beginning of the end of the US dollar/economy but I think it's the start of the beginning of the end. Same for Britain...



Friday Close:
ESU3 @ 1583.75
GCM3 @ 1297.70

5 days later...

Fed Officials Step Up Campaign to Stem Gain in Long-Term Rates
Fed Officials Step Up Campaign to Stem Gain in Long-Term Rates - Bloomberg

Federal Reserve officials stepped up their campaign to stem an increase in long-term borrowing costs that threatens to blunt the U.S. expansion and sought to clarify comments by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that sparked turmoil in global financial markets.

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[new_trader]

Re: Gold

Despite all the fanfare of the mainstream media I don't believe it is the end of the Gold bull market and it looks like it may be nearing the bottom of this major correction. There are signs that all the weak hands have been shaken out and it is now a professionals market. At this price (GCQ 1249.30) most of the marginal gold miners are unsustainable and it is now approaching the all-in sustaining cash costs of even the largest mining companies. Some of the largest mining companies are already laying off workers and closing down inefficient mining operations. If the price falls much below US$1100/oz then some of the largest gold mining companies in the most economically feasible countries will probably start shutting down operations. IMO this is the 1970's all over again and anyone who has done their research will know exactly what I mean.

If my figuring is right, then $1000-1100 marks the bottom line for the gold price and I doubt it can stay that low for very long. The next 3-4 months will be the crucial test. If it plays out the way I figure then without a doubt the new price target for gold will be US$5000/oz.

The time for silly talk, pretty coloured lines and magic round numbers is over. I'm going to start buying physical gold next week. I'll begin with 1 ounce and will double down with every $US100 price drop. $100/ounce is neither here nor there when looking at the big picture.

The simple case for gold: Deflation is the bogeyman that Central Planners all around the world use to justify their inflationary policies. The mainstream Anal-ists are telling us that the price of gold is falling because there is no inflation, which is utter B.S. They refer to inflation as being the Government fudged CPI figures that only a dimwit would believe. But US Treasuries don't lie...unless it is the Central Planners doing the buying with money created out of thin air. The U.S FED is in a dilemma and gold will ultimately reveal the truth.

All the Technical Anal-ists are pointing to US$1000 being the target price for gold because it is a sexy round number, but none of them can explain why $2000 wasn't sexy enough in 2011...go figure...

While I don't doubt that $1000 can be hit, or $900 or even $800...I'm not trying to pick the bottom with gold. I am buying as much as I can afford before it makes its inevitable ascent to $US2000 and beyond. I have a goal of owning a certain number of ounces and I am nowhere near that goal because the price took off in 2011.

Gold is going to be my "Jesse Livermore" trade...I will either go bankrupt or make a killing...although I'm not using any margin, I'm buying outright...


As always: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!







24,886

 

[new_trader]

Re: Gold

Despite all the fanfare of the mainstream media I don't believe it is the end of the Gold bull market and it looks like it may be nearing the bottom of this major correction. There are signs that all the weak hands have been shaken out and it is now a professionals market. At this price (GCQ 1249.30) most of the marginal gold miners are unsustainable and it is now approaching the all-in sustaining cash costs of even the largest mining companies. Some of the largest mining companies are already laying off workers and closing down inefficient mining operations. If the price falls much below US$1100/oz then some of the largest gold mining companies in the most economically feasible countries will probably start shutting down operations. IMO this is the 1970's all over again and anyone who has done their research will know exactly what I mean.

If my figuring is right, then $1000-1100 marks the bottom line for the gold price and I doubt it can stay that low for very long. The next 3-4 months will be the crucial test. If it plays out the way I figure then without a doubt the new price target for gold will be US$5000/oz.


08:07 GCQ3 @ 1249.20

Gold Rises Above $1,300 to 1-Month High on Stimulus Outlook, Oil
Gold Rises Above $1,300 to 1-Month High on Stimulus Outlook, Oil - Bloomberg

Gold advanced above $1,300 an ounce to a one-month high in New York as speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain stimulus and rising oil prices spurred demand for the metal.

No. Gold advanced above $1300/ounce because the tape said it would.



16:44 GCQ3 @ 1329.70





25,495

 

[new_trader]

Re: Summary

the es has made the decline i was expecting although i still figure it needs to move another 20 points (approx) lower before it will be time to buy for a move that will take it above the 1700 level. I suspect the market is anticipating ‘good’ news at the next fed meeting on june 18-19. The ‘good’ news that will send both the gold and stock markets higher will be that the us economy isn’t "recovering" fast enough and will therefore need the current inflationary policy to continue. In other words, the fed will keep doing what isn’t working.

friday close:
esm3 @ 1627.50
gcm3 @ 1387.10

15:08 'esu3' @ 1700.00



25,899

 

[new_trader]

Gold

Gold has remained above $US1300/Oz for about 1 week now and it's obvious that Bloomberg doesn't like it one little bit.

Damage of Declining Gold Prices Felt Globally
Gold Price Decline Felt Around the World - Bloomberg

Gold’s swift fall has ravaged hopes and livelihoods around the world – from the 1 million miners in Ghana who scour in the dirt, to thousands of executives and geologists at mining exploration firms that are running out of cash in Vancouver. Gone too are jobs for auditors, bankers and analysts in the finance capitals of Toronto and London. Investors who bet big and lost are shifting assets elsewhere and scaling back retirement plans.

"Ravaged hopes and livelihoods around the world"...oh...the despair...poor misguided fools who invested in gold...and what is worse, there will be no bailout!

I didn't see the word "Taper" anywhere in the article...Bloomberg has used the word in every 2nd article since the FED mentioned it...you know, in case the public forgets...THE FED MIGHT TAPER O.K? Now minions, be obedient, sell your gold and behave! Bloomberg wants you to buy stocks and prop-uh-ee...not gold!



14:51 GGCZ3 @ 1324.20







26,359

 

[new_trader]

Fiat Money

India Fighting Worst Crisis Since ’91 Seeks to Buoy Rupee
India Fighting Worst Crisis Since

India increased efforts to stem the rupee’s plunge and stop capital outflows that are pushing the economy toward its biggest crisis in more than two decades.

But the Central Planners keep telling us that a weak currency leads to economic growth by "boosting exports"! Of course, only a Keynesian imbecile believes that utter nonsense.

Think this can't happen in the U.K or U.S.A? I'll keep buying GOLD and you can have the Government issued paper fiat rubbish.

Policy makers’ moves since July to tighten cash supply, restrict currency derivatives and curb gold imports have failed to arrest the rupee’s slump to record lows as they struggle to attract capital to fund a record current account deficit.

Indians have been risking jail time and fines to own gold because they know exactly wot is wot!




07:30 GGCZ3 @ 1340.80









26,393

 

[new_trader]

Gold

Despite all the fanfare of the mainstream media I don't believe it is the end of the Gold bull market and it looks like it may be nearing the bottom of this major correction. There are signs that all the weak hands have been shaken out and it is now a professionals market. At this price (GCQ 1249.30) most of the marginal gold miners are unsustainable and it is now approaching the all-in sustaining cash costs of even the largest mining companies. Some of the largest mining companies are already laying off workers and closing down inefficient mining operations. If the price falls much below US$1100/oz then some of the largest gold mining companies in the most economically feasible countries will probably start shutting down operations. IMO this is the 1970's all over again and anyone who has done their research will know exactly what I mean.

If my figuring is right, then $1000-1100 marks the bottom line for the gold price and I doubt it can stay that low for very long. The next 3-4 months will be the crucial test. If it plays out the way I figure then without a doubt the new price target for gold will be US$5000/oz.


08:07 GCQ3 @ 1249.20

All the Chicken little dunces think that GOLD is advancing because of the tensions with Syria. Clueless dumbasses


09:31 GCZ3 @ 1427.40




26,956

 

[new_trader]

housing seen shrugging off loan rate rise as banks loosen
housing seen shrugging off loan rate rise as banks loosen - bloomberg





a housing boom fuelled by low interest rates...again...if i remember rightly...bernanke said back in 2005..."sub prime, no problem!"

The dumbass free-market hating imbeciles will blame "capitalism" again when the whole thing starts to fall apart as interest rates rise...short term memory numbskulls...didn't see the first crisis, don't see the next one either.

i really can't wait for the us fed to taper its bond buying

...more gold please

No Taper...what a great recovery we must be having

When will the dumbass Keynesians concede that money printing isn't working and will never work!!?

Fed Refrains From QE Taper, Keeps Bond Buying at $85 Bln
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-18/fed-refrains-from-qe-taper-keeps-bond-buying-at-85-bln.html

The Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing the $85 billion pace of monthly bond buying, saying it needs to see more signs of lasting improvement in the economy.

19:21 GCZ3 @ 1344.60
19:21 ESZ3 @ 1714.50






27,536

 

[new_trader]

Taper Talk

Gold Seen Dropping by Citigroup, Morgan Stanley on Fed Taper
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...extending-drop-in-2014-as-fed-will-taper.html

Gold will extend losses as the U.S. economy improves, according to Citigroup Inc. and Morgan Stanley, which said the Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to maintain stimulus for now will benefit prices only in the short term.

Gold was definitely going to drop in September because the Fed was definitely maybe going to taper, but they surprised everyone...now Gold will definitely drop because the Fed will definitely possibly taper in October, and if not October, then definitely maybe December...depending on "The data"...

Until then, Bloomberg will definitely not be tapering the taper talk...



new_trader is definitely not tapering his gold buying...






27,683

 

[new_trader]

Let's all celebrate Inflation!

More energy price rises expected after SSE increase
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24475868

Consumer groups are predicting that the UK's other major energy suppliers will raise prices after SSE announced an 8.2% increase in domestic bills.

:clap:


This must be great news for the Keynesian economists and central planners who keep terrifying us with the deflation bogeyman! They must be rejoicing over the demand the rising energy prices will create, and how it will stimulate the economy, just like rising house prices!







28,063

 

[new_trader]

Fed Gets Bigger in Markets as QE Prompts New Tools
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-14/fed-gets-bigger-in-markets-as-qe-prompts-new-tools.html

The new tool -- called the fixed-rate, full-allotment overnight reverse repo facility

28,208

 

[new_trader]

More Good news for the inflationists!

Npower to increase energy prices by 10.4%
http://money.uk.msn.com/features/npower-to-increase-energy-prices-by-104percent

Npower customers will see an average price increase of 10.4% from 1st December, the company has announced.

Electricity prices will go up by 11.1% while gas costs are shooting up by 9.3%. It’s the highest price rise to be announced so far in this round of increases.

Npower follows in the footsteps of British Gas and SSE, which have both announced winter price hikes.

More good news for the Keynesian economists and Central Planners who keep terrifying us with the deflation bogeyman!


Of course, the left wing lunatics will try and blame their good news on greedy Capitalists...





28,376

 

[new_trader]

Government Insanity

Government reveals plans to cut cost of motoring
http://cars.uk.msn.com/news/government-reveals-plans-to-cut-cost-of-motoring

The costs of owning and running a car are felt by millions of households and businesses across the nation. The Government is determined to help keep those costs down. That is why we are freezing the price for an MOT test and looking again at the costs associated with getting a driving licence.

Only Government can be this stupid and hypocritical! They price fixed interest rates and now they want to do the same to "help" motorists!

The Government (Via the Central Bank) has price fixed interest rates with their disastrous Q.E and now we are all suffering the unintended (but highly predictable) consequences i.e. Rising cost of living.

Of course, the Keynesian Economists, modern economists and all the sheeple "educated" in Government schools don't understand that price fixing NEVER WORKS. They will find some other reason for the rising cost of living...perhaps terrorists or nasty greedy Capitalists.






28,466

 

[new_trader]

Inflation

Central Banks Drop Tightening Talk as Easy Money Goes On
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...op-tightening-talk-as-easy-money-goes-on.html

Central bankers are on guard to keep low inflation from turning into deflation, a broad-based decline in prices that leads households to hold off purchases and companies to postpone investment and hiring

Thank goodness our Central Planners are on guard...for a while I thought food and energy prices in the U.K were going to start falling and cause households to hold off purchases. I just hope the Government's efforts to price fix MOT's won't cause households to hold off driving.









28,507

 

[new_trader]

Deflation bogeyman

Draghi’s Deflation Risk Complicates Recovery: Euro Credit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...on-risk-complicates-recovery-euro-credit.html

Mario Draghi is facing down a deflation threat with few options left to fight it.

Consumer prices in the euro area are rising at the slowest pace in four years, well below the European Central Bank’s target of just under 2 percent. The ECB president has a choice of cutting rates that are already near zero, injecting liquidity that may not boost prices, or ignoring the ECB’s own definition of price stability, according to banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA.

Oh No...it's the terrifying deflation bogeyman threatening to make things cheaper for the consumer! This is a job for Central Planners!







28,782

 

[new_trader]

Central Planning Madness

IMF Backs U.S. Treasury in Criticizing German Exports
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...ck-at-u-s-criticism-over-economic-policy.html

The International Monetary Fund joined the U.S. Treasury Department in rebuking Germany’s trade surpluses, rebuffing the claim of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government that booming exports are a sign of economic health.

I thought it couldn't get any more ridiculous! The U.S Government, who thinks increasing debt is being responsible is now telling Germany that booming exports is bad. Yes, you read that correctly...even though Central Planners have been trying to convince us that they need to weaken their currency in order to boost exports, now it's bad...

Germany (who we all know experienced hyper-inflation during the Weimar Republic and therefore believes more strongly in sound money than the profligate Governments like the USA and U.K) have shown that PRODUCIVITY BOOSTS EXPORTS and leads to ECONOMIC GROWTH, not printing money!

The U.S Treasury Department is angry because it exposes their moronic Keynesian ideals as a complete myth that only a left-wing lunatic would believe.







28,789

 

[new_trader]

Boosting Exports

Carney Seen Tempering Optimism as BOE Holds Record-Low Rate
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...optimism-as-boe-keeps-rate-at-record-low.html

Improving U.K. data has helped boost sterling 5.6 percent against the dollar since the start of July and the Monetary Policy Committee has warned that continued appreciation could hamper export growth.

Ahh...the old "weaken the currency to boost exports" nonsense...

Careful Carney, you don't want to boost exports too much because you will upset the US Treasury Department, like Germany has. I'm sure you know exactly the right amount of appreciation to keep both the U.K exporters and the US Treasury Department happy...is it 5.59% against the dollar...maybe 5.61%...anyway, I'm sure you've got the magic formula; You're an all knowing Central Planner!






28,972

 

[new_trader]

News

"If you must read the news, do not try to convert it into stock market profits, for you will fail except on rare occasions. In the net, you will lose money"

Nothing can be truer than the above quote, yet you will still find people in this forum paying close attention to news releases like Nonfarm Payrolls, GDP, Jobless claims etc. What is worse is that these dunces will attribute stock market movements to the 'NEWS'. Your trading will improve when you start ignoring the NEWS and the dunces who talk about it.

Within the market flows the evidence of Supply and Demand which is the dominant factor in the stock market. That always tells the truth and that never fails.

Those who pay attention to the news are the same dunces who will tell you that markets are random. They ought to be playing Bingo instead of trading.









29,139

 

[new_trader]

Deflation Bogeyman!!

Central Banks Risk Asset Bubbles in Battle With Deflation Danger
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...-bubbles-in-battle-with-deflation-danger.html

While declining costs for everything from gasoline to coffee can be good news for consumers, disinflation makes it harder for borrowers to pay off debts and businesses to boost profits. The greater danger comes when disinflation turns into deflation, which leads households to delay purchases in anticipation of even lower prices and companies to postpone investment and hiring as demand for their products dries up.

OMG! It's the deflation bogeyman threatening to make things cheaper for the consumer again...!

Now the Central Planners are using the word 'disinflation' as Deflation is just too terrifying and might cause the sensitive households to panic and stop eating because they think food will be cheaper next week. You see, people only eat when food prices are going up.

Economists once used the term 'Economic Depression' but that phrase hasn't been used in decades and now all we have are Recessions...but even that is too strong for the sensitive public so now we just have slow downs or contractions...

From a study by Andrew Atkeson, and Patrick J. Kehoe, 2004.
Deflation and Depression: Is There an Empirical Link?

Are deflation and depression empirically linked? No, concludes a broad historical study of inflation and real output growth rates. Deflation and depression do seem to have been linked during the 1930s. But in the rest of the data for 17 countries and more than 100 years, there is virtually no evidence of such a link.

According to standard economic theory, deflation is the necessary consequence of optimal monetary policy. In 1969, Milton Friedman argued that under the optimal policy, the nominal interest rate should be zero and the price level should fall steadily at the real rate of interest. Since then, Friedman’s argument has been confirmed in a formal setting. (See, for example, V. V. Chari, Lawrence Christiano, and Patrick Kehoe 1996 and Harold Cole and Narayana Kocherlakota 1998.)

Most policymakers, however, are extremely reluctant to implement any policy that would lead to deflation. This reluctance seems to stem from the experience of the Great Depression, in which deflation and depression appear to have been tightly linked. (See, for example, Ben Bernanke and Kevin Carey 1996.) That experience has led to theories in which deflation leads to depression. The quantitative ability of those theories to account for the Great Depression is now being debated. (See, for example, Cole and Lee Ohanian 2001.)

III. Concluding Remarks

The data suggest that deflation is not closely related to depression. A broad historical look finds many more periods of deflation with reasonable growth than with depression and many more periods of depression with inflation than with deflation. Overall, the data show virtually no link between deflation and depression.

This study simply characterizes the relation in the raw data between deflation and output growth, with no attempt to control for anything, like the type of monetary regime or the extent to which the deflation was anticipated. Perhaps a link between deflation and depression could be teased out of the data with a well-motivated set of controls. Our contribution here is to note that without such controls, the data show no obvious relationship. The bar has thus been raised for those who claim that deflation and depression are closely linked.

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