ES Trading

[new_trader]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics!

Data shift to lift US economy 3%
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52d23fa6-aa98-11e2-bc0d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2RGW0Fxz8

The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties and spending on research and development.

Question: How does a Central Planner boost GDP?
Answer: Change the way it’s calculated!

That's why GDP is an utterly meaningless figure, just like CPI or "Inflation"...they are nothing but Central Planner machinations designed to make things look the way they want.


You better sell all of your Gold because the US economy is going to start "improving" like you've never seen...with absolutely no threat of "inflation" as far as the eye can see...







20,875

 

[new_trader]

Re: Portfolio & Gold

Gold Extends Bear-Market Plunge Below $1,400 on U.S. Recovery
Gold Extends Bear-Market Plunge Below $1,400 on U.S. Recovery - Bloomberg



Remember this, Gold is plunging because the U.S economy is recovering. This should finally get all the weak hands out of the market.

Gold Rush From Dubai to Istanbul Drains Supply as Premiums Jump
Gold Rush From Dubai to Istanbul Drains Supply as Premiums Jump - Bloomberg

Surging demand for gold from Dubai to Istanbul has pushed physical premiums in the region to levels not seen in years as the biggest price slump in three decades lures consumers, according to MKS (Switzerland) SA.

Just two weeks ago Bloomberg would have made you believe that the Gold bull market was dead, over, finished, kaput, worthless...etc

The gold company I buy my coins and bars from have the most "Out of stock" products I've ever seen in years.

Most people would be inclined to say that massive buying from the "retail" crowd is a sign that the market is at a top, however, a general rule of thumb is that STRONG HANDS TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL. :smart:

If you doubt me, ask your neighbour, or your friends or your work colleagues, or any of your relatives whether they bought gold via an ETF, A futures contract or if they bought physical coins and bars. My guess is they will give you a blank look and wonder WTF you are talking about..."I bought an iPhone you moron"...

A few pundits are suggesting that this current rally in gold is just a dead cat bounce so it will be interesting to see just how much physical buying is drawn in by another price dip. I know the price I will be buying, and buying heavily, if it comes.




08:14 GCM3 @1463.00



21,302

 

[new_trader]

Draghi Mulls Negative Campaign as Economy Struggles
Draghi Mulls Negative Campaign as Economy Struggles - Bloomberg

With the ECB cutting its benchmark interest rate to a record low yesterday as the euro-area recession deepens, Draghi said policy makers have an “open mind” on reducing their so- called deposit rate below zero for the first time.

Yes, their minds are so open that their brains have fallen out.

Economy is in recession: Response = cut interest rates.
Economy remains in recession: Response = cut interest rates.
Economy is mired in recession: Response = cut interest rates.
Economy is devastated. Response = cut interest rates below zero.

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." - Albert Einstein

These moronic Central Planners are determined never to give up on the insane and destructive Keynesian economic policies!








21,614

 

[new_trader]

Re: Market and portfolio update

I remain LONG on stocks and expect the ES (S&P500) to break well above 1600.00 before I would even begin to start thinking that this bull trend is near exhausted. The Central Planners are determined to debase their currencies to oblivion, so the market is being driven almost entirely by inflation and there is plenty of it and more to come I suspect.

There is nothing I am seeing that would induce me into liquidating my stocks¹. To me it looks like the market is ready for a breakout. There may be some minor reactions here and there while Tweedledum and Tweedledee try to workout the debt ceiling thing in the US, but I am staying long until the market tells me to get out.

1. Unforseen natural disasters and/or geopolitical events excluded.




AS Always, I could be completely wrong so do your own research!

13:36 ESM3 @1603.00


All the dunces in this forum keep trying to short the DOW and S&P500...





21,638

 

[new_trader]

Central Planning

Central Banks Keep Easing After 511 Cuts Fail to Spur Growth
Central Banks Keep Easing After 511 Cuts Fail to Spur Growth - Bloomberg

Global central bankers are poised to ease monetary policy even further after a wave of interest-rate cuts from India to Poland.

As Group of Seven finance chiefs gather in the U.K. today with monetary policy on their agenda, economists at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse Group AG are among those predicting policy makers will keep deploying stimulus amid weak global growth, slowing inflation and the need to thwart currency gains.

While the liquidity has sent stock markets surging, it has yet to prove as effective in generating economic growth.

It's very simple... The ability to increase money supply when the situation calls for it is a massive advantage. Why do you think the Chinese have been kickin' ass for the past couple of decades? It sure ain't 'cause they're on the gold standard. A directed command economy allows them to very easily turn the taps on and off, which is an extreme example of the sort of competitive advantage I am referring to.

Yes...simples!

So, after 511 rate cuts worldwide I have to ask, WHERE IS THE MASSIVE ADVANTAGE?

Economies aren't growing but the insanity of doing the same thing over and over remains...

Modern Economists


The debasement of fiat money continues whilst Central Planners continue to deny there is a currency war...

Whatever you do, don't buy gold, just remember to:

KEEP
CALM
AND
CARRY
ON​

21,986

 

[new_trader]

Gold Bears Revived as Rout Resumes After Coin Rush: Commodities
Gold Bears Revived as Rout Resumes After Coin Rush: Commodities - Bloomberg

“The momentum has slowed significantly,” said Jeremy Baker, a senior commodities strategist who oversees about $800 million of assets at Harcourt Investment Consulting AG in Zurich and who forecasts prices may drop as low as $1,200 in six months. “The safe haven has definitely lost its gleam. We are in a declining phase here.”

Yes, everything is fine now, the Central Planners have fixed everything, the markets are making record highs and "the safe haven has definitely lost its gleam" even though by their own admission gold never really acted as a safe-haven...

It comes as no surprise that you will read this kind of mainstream nonsense from the neo-gold experts at Trade2win who don't know the difference between a gold bug and a gold speculator, they will just utter parrot-fashion whatever Bloomberg teaches them

It will be interesting to see if any of the Trade2win gold "experts" start buying gold when the price is right...my guess is they won't, not until Bloomberg tells them it is safe to buy because none of them have the foggiest idea of wot is wot and wot is not. You will only hear them calling another "bubble" when gold hits a new high...and they will keep repeating it until they "right"...Permabears

new_trader was accumulating gold years before the mainstream media knew what was going on...and new_trader will continue to accumulate gold while the Permabears will keep saying there is no point owning gold. In the meantime, I have added more gold miners to my portfolio.






22,412

 

[new_trader]

Gold

Hollande Bonds Without AAA Shine Brighter Than Gold: Euro Credit
Hollande Bonds Without AAA Shine Brighter Than Gold: Euro Credit - Bloomberg

Credit downgrades, recession and President Francois Hollande’s gaping budget shortfall have done little to prevent French bonds from outshining gold.

Investors who bought French bonds when Standard & Poor’s stripped the country of its top credit rating on Jan. 13 last year have chalked up a 12 percent return, about triple the gains from German debt. Gold, touted by some investors as the world’s safest asset and a potential beneficiary when AAA rated governments are downgraded, lost 17 percent during the period.

Bloomberg has been running at least 3 bearish articles on Gold per day, every day, for the last 2 months...each one more bearish, desperate and bizarre than the last. But this latest one most definitely takes top prize. I look forward to the next article where they will compare Gold to Tulip Bulbs from 1634-1636.






22,547

 

[new_trader]

I added more gold miners to my portfolio on Tuesday and will soon start accumulating more gold as I now figure, and it is all but 100% confirmed, that the low in gold was made on the 15th April 2013.

I suspect, in fact I never doubted that the Stock Market rally was never based on Economic fundamentals, it is supported by Central Planner inflationary policies and now it has been exposed for what it is...just another inflationary bubble. Ben Bernanke hints at tapering Q.E and the market doesn’t like it one little bit.

I figure the ES is going to decline another 20-30 points from here, probably after the release of the jobless claims or sometime in the next few trading sessions.

08:23 ESM3 @ 1642.25; GCM3 @ 1378.30

As always, I could be completely wrong so do your own research!






22,638

 

[new_trader]

Re: Gold

Bloomberg has been running at least 3 bearish articles on Gold per day, every day, for the last 2 months...each one more bearish, desperate and bizarre than the last. But this latest one most definitely takes top prize. I look forward to the next article where they will compare Gold to Tulip Bulbs from 1634-1636.

Gold Diverging From Fine Wine as Bullion Investors Lose Faith
Gold Diverging From Fine Wine as Bullion Investors Lose Faith - Bloomberg

Gold and wine prices that tracked each other in the past decade amid demand for alternative assets are now diverging after bullion slumped into a bear market as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value.

Ok, it wasn't Tulip Bulbs...but still

You better start building a cellar...






23,066

 

[new_trader]

Summary

I figure the ES is going to decline another 20-30 points from here, probably after the release of the jobless claims or sometime in the next few trading sessions.

08:23 ESM3 @ 1642.25; GCM3 @ 1378.30

As always, I could be completely wrong so do your own research!

The ES has made the decline I was expecting although I still figure it needs to move another 20 points (approx) lower before it will be time to buy for a move that will take it above the 1700 level. I suspect the market is anticipating ‘good’ NEWS at the next FED meeting on June 18-19. The ‘good’ NEWS that will send both the gold and stock markets higher will be that the US economy isn’t "recovering" fast enough and will therefore need the current inflationary policy to continue. In other words, the FED will keep doing what isn’t working.

Friday Close:
ESM3 @ 1627.50
GCM3 @ 1387.10






23,322

 

[new_trader]

The ES has made the decline I was expecting although I still figure it needs to move another 20 points (approx) lower before it will be time to buy for a move that will take it above the 1700 level. I suspect the market is anticipating ‘good’ NEWS at the next FED meeting on June 18-19. The ‘good’ NEWS that will send both the gold and stock markets higher will be that the US economy isn’t "recovering" fast enough and will therefore need the current inflationary policy to continue. In other words, the FED will keep doing what isn’t working.

Friday Close:
ESM3 @ 1627.50
GCM3 @ 1387.10

17:40 ESM3@ 1609.75

Market has declined by the approx 20 points I figured it would.










23,456

 

[new_trader]

Re: Summary

The ES has made the decline I was expecting although I still figure it needs to move another 20 points (approx) lower before it will be time to buy for a move that will take it above the 1700 level. I suspect the market is anticipating ‘good’ NEWS at the next FED meeting on June 18-19. The ‘good’ NEWS that will send both the gold and stock markets higher will be that the US economy isn’t "recovering" fast enough and will therefore need the current inflationary policy to continue. In other words, the FED will keep doing what isn’t working.

Friday Close:
ESM3 @ 1627.50
GCM3 @ 1387.10

The market is acting the way I figured and I think it is near the bottom so I expect a lot of volatility. The reversal probably won’t happen until the FED meets June 18-19. I am sticking with my target on the ES of 1700.

07:16 ESM3 @ 1611.00; GCQ3 @ 1396.30


23,493

 

[new_trader]

This is just to show that I actually do put my money where my mouth is. What I have noticed in this forum is that honesty seems to rank higher than profitability. OK, so my admission is that even though I have a very high degree of confidence in my figuring I still don’t have the courage to trade a larger size than £20/point SB or 1 ES contract. Let’s see if I get any recs for saying that...or if anyone really cares...whatever....






23,493

 

[new_trader]

This is just to show that I actually do put my money where my mouth is. What I have noticed in this forum is that honesty seems to rank higher than profitability. OK, so my admission is that even though I have a very high degree of confidence in my figuring I still don’t have the courage to trade a larger size than £20/point SB or 1 ES contract. Let’s see if I get any recs for saying that...or if anyone really cares...whatever....

Last 3 out @ 1609.00





23,529

 

[new_trader]

Interest Rates

Home Loan Rates Near 4% Send Buyers Scurrying: Mortgages
Home Loan Rates Near 4% Send Buyers Scurrying: Mortgages - Bloomberg

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has risen for each of the past four weeks and is now at the highest level in a year, according to government mortgage-buyer Freddie Mac. While that’s already put a dent in the refinancing boom that has powered bank earnings this year, for buyers like Braunstein, the message is clear: buy quickly.

Interest rates are rising and the FED hasn’t even begun tapering yet! They have only hinted that they may think about possibly doing so...if...if...the US economy improves....

Midnight Oil - Short Memory - YouTube






23,537

 

[new_trader]

Traders in the crosshairs

U.K. Fights EU Short-Sale Powers After Bank Bonus Defeat
U.K. Fights EU Short-Sale Powers After Bank Bonus Defeat - Bloomberg

ESMA, which brings together markets regulators from the 27-nation EU, was handed an upgraded mandate to police short selling last year as part of a bid by EU lawmakers to make markets less volatile and tame speculation by traders blamed for driving up governments’ borrowing costs.

Short sellers seek to profit on declining markets by selling borrowed shares or bonds, on the belief their price will fall, then replacing them with securities bought at a lower price.

I'm sure all the Free-Market hating Socialist traders of this forum will be happy about this! As Interest rates start rising the Governments will look for a scapegoat and it will be YOU and your butterfly






23,686

 

[new_trader]

left wing longhairs

Occupy Wall Street Stylists Pursue U.K. Tax Dodgers
Occupy Wall Street Stylists Pursue U.K. Tax Dodgers - Bloomberg

Yet, with more than 60,000 Twitter followers and a sprawling network of college-educated volunteers, the Occupy Wall Street-style group has helped galvanize public opposition to corporate tax avoidance. It has demonstrated inside Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) coffee shops, sued Britain’s tax collection agency over a deal with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and shut down London’s Westminster Bridge. It plans to target this month’s summit of the Group of Eight, the world’s eight wealthiest countries.

60,000+ dumbf*ckers who think they have a right to other peoples property...lazy singing and dancing longhairs demand that the Government steal more money from the productive sector and share the loot with them. These clueless morons don't understand that austerity means LESS GOVERNMENT, it doesn't mean increasing the burden on taxpayers to make things 'fair'...

Just wait till these f*ckwits find out that Spread betting profits are TAX FREE :-0


Governments adore these left-wing longhair lunatics...





23,719

 

[new_trader]

Re: Summary

The ES has made the decline I was expecting although I still figure it needs to move another 20 points (approx) lower before it will be time to buy for a move that will take it above the 1700 level. I suspect the market is anticipating ‘good’ NEWS at the next FED meeting on June 18-19. The ‘good’ NEWS that will send both the gold and stock markets higher will be that the US economy isn’t "recovering" fast enough and will therefore need the current inflationary policy to continue. In other words, the FED will keep doing what isn’t working.

Friday Close:
ESM3 @ 1627.50
GCM3 @ 1387.10

Markets are selling off on the rumour that the U.S FED will slow down its inflationary policy...a little bit. Naturally, the clueless frightened public thinks that this means the end for the gold bull market. This also means new_trader can buy much more gold at low low prices!

My prediction: Interest rates are going to start rising and THAT is going to frighten the US Government much more than this minor correction is scaring the TRUE gold bugs. The taper talk will taper and the threat of recession and deflation will be hitting the headlines again. This will continue until the FED can't lie about inflation anymore, it will be so obvious that even a dumbass t2w "Legendary Member" will acknowledge it.

This isn't necessarily the beginning of the end of the US dollar/economy but I think it's the start of the beginning of the end. Same for Britain...



Friday Close:
ESU3 @ 1583.75
GCM3 @ 1297.70






24,462

 

[new_trader]

Interest Rates

Markets are selling off on the rumour that the U.S FED will slow down its inflationary policy...a little bit. Naturally, the clueless frightened public thinks that this means the end for the gold bull market. This also means new_trader can buy much more gold at low low prices!

My prediction: Interest rates are going to start rising and THAT is going to frighten the US Government much more than this minor correction is scaring the TRUE gold bugs. The taper talk will taper and the threat of recession and deflation will be hitting the headlines again. This will continue until the FED can't lie about inflation anymore, it will be so obvious that even a dumbass t2w "Legendary Member" will acknowledge it.

This isn't necessarily the beginning of the end of the US dollar/economy but I think it's the start of the beginning of the end. Same for Britain...



Friday Close:
ESU3 @ 1583.75
GCM3 @ 1297.70

Housing Seen Shrugging Off Loan Rate Rise as Banks Loosen
Housing Seen Shrugging Off Loan Rate Rise as Banks Loosen - Bloomberg

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week that the central bank may scale back its unprecedented stimulus program this year as the economy and housing improve, ending the era of record-low mortgage rates and marking the first test for the year-old housing recovery. While rising costs make purchasing real estate more expensive, the upshot for homebuyers is that banks will need to respond by improving credit availability that has been holding back the market for the past five years.

A housing boom fuelled by low interest rates...again...If I remember rightly...Bernanke said back in 2005..."Sub Prime, No problem!"

The dumbass free-market hating imbeciles will blame "Capitalism" again when the whole thing starts to fall apart as interest rates rise...Short term memory numbskulls...didn't see the first crisis, don't see the next one either.

I really can't wait for the US FED to taper its Bond buying

...more gold please









24,483

 

[new_trader]

Gold

Despite all the fanfare of the mainstream media I don't believe it is the end of the Gold bull market and it looks like it may be nearing the bottom of this major correction. There are signs that all the weak hands have been shaken out and it is now a professionals market. At this price (GCQ 1249.30) most of the marginal gold miners are unsustainable and it is now approaching the all-in sustaining cash costs of even the largest mining companies. Some of the largest mining companies are already laying off workers and closing down inefficient mining operations. If the price falls much below US$1100/oz then some of the largest gold mining companies in the most economically feasible countries will probably start shutting down operations. IMO this is the 1970's all over again and anyone who has done their research will know exactly what I mean.

If my figuring is right, then $1000-1100 marks the bottom line for the gold price and I doubt it can stay that low for very long. The next 3-4 months will be the crucial test. If it plays out the way I figure then without a doubt the new price target for gold will be US$5000/oz.


08:07 GCQ3 @ 1249.20













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