ES tonight

Rath - which Pit Audio service do you subscribe to ?

Traders Audio have a trial - but I am not sure whether to trial the commentary or non-commentary version.

What do you use ?

Cheers

Pete

Pierre, I would definetly say to go for the Commentary.
The audio-only could be useful to gauge activity/excitement etc, but what really makes the difference is Ben's commentary.
You really want to sit up and take notice when he says things like "Paper are looking to buy", "number One has just gone short 200 (cars)" etc .....

It takes a bit of time to get used to all the terminology, and the speed & clarity is like an auctioneer. But it's a good tool, and can be FUN too...
 
..worked well today!

doesn't happen every day like this, but as I suggest in my signature, if only 1 day in 10 is like this, it can help make a profitable showing.

And it sure beats the hell over watching the screen every second for a Stochastic to cross over or a Macd to drop into the red or whatever .....

but talking of indicators and something you mentioned yesterday, I'd be curious to see if the Keltner/BB trick worked yesterday to signal the Exit on this nice move south.

I've got my charts turned off as I'm packing up to get ready to travel, but if you have time could you pop them on your chart and see how they would have worked yesterday ?

cheers, r_e
 
always interesting to note whenever a Daily and a Weekly level match up as we have tonight at 895.

It could mean
a) ultimate Support
b) freefall once price breaks down through it
c) none of the above, f:ck all significance and that's trading for you !!! :)

you see, I was right ! one of the scenarios did work out.
I am never wrong !!! :LOL: :clap: :LOL: :clap:
 
thurs 14 may:

902.5
893.75

876.75
868

price is slap bang in the middle of the two zones at the moment, so whereas some people who use indicators may be taking trades while price sits where it is, I prefer to wait til it enters one of the zones and either retraces or breaks out.
 
just a word of caution, today's RS at 893.75 is within a point or so of the central Pivot Point (892.17)
I don't know how or if that will make a difference, but worth keeping an eye on how price acts at both levels
It would certainly make for an unappealing trade to short from the one with the other as a target....
 
sorry rathcoole.......1 of 10 is weak hand pathetic trading if i am reading u correctly.... the one that should not consider trading is the pitiful 10% trader.....that is one is a screaming loser....can't even believe u would suggest that....loser city all t he way...wow.....
 
if 9 trades balance out at even with small wins and small losses
and the tenth trade gains 15, 20 points, maybe more.
How is that not winning ?
 
and I don't suggest that is all that one should strive for.
i suggest that one has to have the mental strength to accept these circumstances when they inevitably occur.
Without such acceptance a new or inexperienced trader, or just a dyckhead such as yourself, might bail out after a run of 7, 8 , 9 trades without making a profit.
The point is to emphasise mental discipline.

You prove my point exactly, which is why you will always struggle as trader.
 
what ensued was a nice 15 point drop. /QUOTE]

I hope you took it ? :)

I have stopped trading for a bit as I feel that I need to regain some confidence and review my methods. I have been trading with a partner (actually for a partner) using what is mostly his method without much success (and support from him I might add...just venting a tad). I am now in my "learn and burn" mode where I try to assimilate as much relevent information as possible in order to re-evaluate my overall direction. When I am more comfortable with price action S/R methods, I will start to paper trade before risking what's left of my dwindling risk capital :(. In the meantime, I look forward to continuing this enlighteneing discussion.

Cheers

Ivor
 
sorry rathcoole.......1 of 10 is weak hand pathetic trading if i am reading u correctly.... the one that should not consider trading is the pitiful 10% trader.....that is one is a screaming loser....can't even believe u would suggest that....loser city all t he way...wow.....

Last time I checked, 2-3 small winners + 1 big pay-day amounts to a 30%-40% batting average which might be considered conservative but perhaps a realistic goal to have in mind..."greed, for lack of a better word is [NOT] good" (sorry Douglas).
 
Attached is the 5min ES reg session chart with KC channel (10,1.5) and also BB. I had to do some coding to get the KC indicator working properly in Esignal to your previous specifications but I believe that it matches with your previous charts.

As per your strategy, from 12:50 P.M. - 1:15 P.M. EST, candles closed outside of KC lower band with the final one having a high of 883.25 which is where the stop would have been trailed to...the absolute low was 880 so just over 78% of the move would have been captured.

On a side note, I was hoping that a reversal short signal would have been generated to add confidence to the short at BS 895 but alas the candles did not close outside the upper band. THere may yet be something in it but it will require a lot more testing and observation, TF analysis etc...I will also consider looking at the bollinger bands (tomorrow though...time to :sleep:)

Ivor
 

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Pierre, I would definetly say to go for the Commentary.
The audio-only could be useful to gauge activity/excitement etc, but what really makes the difference is Ben's commentary.
You really want to sit up and take notice when he says things like "Paper are looking to buy", "number One has just gone short 200 (cars)" etc .....

It takes a bit of time to get used to all the terminology, and the speed & clarity is like an auctioneer. But it's a good tool, and can be FUN too...

OK - I'll give it a go, probably start the 3 day trial on Monday...

Thanks- hope the little one is well !
 
Attached are 2 charts (5 min and 15 min) with today's action and KC channel plots. There wasn't much action with respect to any CAMs in the early but the Daily FTP RL line was the point of some massive choppinness pre market open. A wide enough stop would have allowed the trader to play the bounce that followed at 10:00 though I am not so sure about this one because it was around some big news.

There was a short play play around 12:35 of the CAM RS line that would have worked out nicely in addition to exiting on the break of the KC channel lower bound for a few points.
It came back up a second time and this one would not have worked out unless the stop was more than 3 points but ultimately the CAM BS weekly line was hit with a close outside the upper KC in addition to having been there yesterday for a nice short. This was the best play (I think) today in terms of maximum probability w.r.t. this strategy.

I am wondering if there is anything in the price action that would have given additional information to the trader whether the plays should be taken or not. For example, the second time the price came to test 893.75, it was off of a very strong run and a very bullish close. Perhaps knowing that the weekly line was not far off, would a trader not have taken that one? In retrospect no, but we don't have that luxury when the market is live. I also hope that this isn't starting to be data mining. I am still playing around to see if there is some way of confirming the play off the price lines ...the KC has potential but I am not sure if it is ideal.
 

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I am curious to know the reasoning behind Cam calculations working ? I can see that floor pivots make sense and even Fib pivots but unsure about Cams.


Paul
 
Hi Paul,

To be perfectly honest, I do not know what the reasoning is...Because I am just starting to learn about pivots and the like thanks to Garry's excellent journal, I am following much of his reasoning while I observe and test this type of method, as well as try to see if pivot points could form the basis of a useable trading strategy (for me at the least).

I agree with you that there is, intuitively, more sense behind floor pivots and in my testing, I intend to observe both FTP and CAM (e.g. the multiplicative factor of 1.1/4 etc... in the CAM calc seems arbitrary). I would also note that I have read some sketchy things about CAMs in older threads on both this site and elite trader but also good thing.

At the present time, I am thinking of pivots, be they CAM, FTP, DeMark or whatever else, as areas where the trader expects/believes that price will react in a certain direction. Now, if price reacts at this level in the anticipated fashion, I would postulate that this level was indeed significant for market participants. The question that remains is whether or not the pivot point calc stumbled upon this level by accident or that the equation is indeed a reliable predictor of important S/R terms in and of itself. Based on a limited amount of observation at this point, I have seen price respect these S/R levels almost to the tick on some occasions and blow right through them as if they didn't matter on others. While Garry has recorded success in this journal by merely playing the price levels as calculated, I suspect at this point that the use of additional filters to help confirm the move at the identified level should increase the risk-reward ratio of the trades. For example, if a higher time frame is in a downtrend, as established through other means, I would argue that maybe the trader wouldn't want to play a long off the reversal long line just because the price was hit. Perhaps, the move would be to allow price to figure out what it wants to do. If it bounces off the support, great...allow it to come back up to a level where you are prepared to go short and take that trade; if price shoots through it, then perhaps allow price to come back up to the RL line from underneath and see if there is some momentum behind it to justify a cautious long or, on a fail of that level, an additional shorting opportunity.

Then again, perhaps all a load of rubbish...your thoughts and impressions are appreciated

Regards,

Ivor
 
just checking in while i've got 5 minutes -
fridays figures were
889,5
894,25

884,75
879,5

just noticed the wonderful reversal short from 894,25 almost to the penny :)


with regards to your question about Cams - i have no idea why they are computed thus and i originally dismissed them as a gimmick.
but then i read someweher that traders at international banks use them as their secret weapon . dont know if true or not, but lead me to re-look at them, and observation over time has convinced me of their effectiveness ......
 
I will look up the formula for Cams (unless anyone knows them here ?). If it is used by large institutions then that is a good enough reason as to why they work. With all of these pivots and S / R levels it is about where a high density of orders are likely to be triggered.


Paul
 
i have posted the formula before, somewhere on the thread already.

but as to why it should or shouldnt work vis-a-vis FTPs I cant answer .... other than by repeating that observation has proven worthwhile
 
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