Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

I must learn more patience. It went exactly to .7174

The result of that is I just cost myself 12 pips. 6 up and 6 back down, so that is a fine example of charting and a poor example of discipline in trading.

 

[JahDave]

My target for exit is the .7118 for a 50 pip profit.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Dave, the six pips will be unnoticeable when you cash in your 50. OTOH, I'm not much of a perfectionist. I just like to get in.
I just went short the GBP/NZD. It should be good for +131.

The result of that is I just cost myself 12 pips. 6 up and 6 back down, so that is a fine example of charting and a poor example of discipline in trading.

 

[JahDave]

Dave, the six pips will be unnoticeable when you cash in your 50. OTOH, I'm not much of a perfectionist. I just like to get in.
I just went short the GBP/NZD. It should be good for +131.

I'm just making that point so that hopefully it will be of help to myself and others to be more disciplined.

 

[4xpipcounter]

I know what you are saying. In spite of me having more of the attitude to just jump in, I was asking myself, "Why didn't I just make the plunge on the hedge on cable at 1.5884?" Oh no! I had to wade it out. Now, I'm still looking for an entry. I got to hope I get a pullback during Tokyo.
In my opinion, the base has been formed as we are headed to 1.5734, at least.

I'm just making that point so that hopefully it will be of help to myself and others to be more disciplined.

 

[JahDave]

I know what you are saying. In spite of me having more of the attitude to just jump in, I was asking myself, "Why didn't I just make the plunge on the hedge on cable at 1.5884?" Oh no! I had to wade it out. Now, I'm still looking for an entry. I got to hope I get a pullback during Tokyo.
In my opinion, the base has been formed as we are headed to 1.5734, at least.

Well the first leg down of everything took about 4.5 hours and now we have had our bounce and just beginning the final leg down I think. So that means about 6:30 pm EST would be a good time to enter a euro long if wave A and C are equal in length. Usually wave C is longer than A so if it is 38% longer then around 8 pm EST would be a good time to enter a long. Of course a currency pair can always get stuck in consolidation and take forever to move.

 

[4xpipcounter]

Especially in the correction of a strong trend.

Well the first leg down of everything took about 4.5 hours and now we have had our bounce and just beginning the final leg down I think. So that means about 6:30 pm EST would be a good time to enter a euro long if wave A and C are equal in length. Usually wave C is longer than A so if it is 38% longer then around 8 pm EST would be a good time to enter a long. Of course a currency pair can always get stuck in consolidation and take forever to move.

 

[JahDave]

Based on wave structure I think the Kiwi is going to make a flat and therefore I am looking to close my trade at .7145 and wait for the move up to short one more time.

 

[JahDave]

Based on wave structure I think the Kiwi is going to make a flat and therefore I am looking to close my trade at .7145 and wait for the move up to short one more time.

OK I'm out for +20 pips and just couldn't stand the temptation to get in going back up. That is a pretty risky move because even though the wave structure is pointing to a flat that still doesn't mean that wave 2 won't extend down.

 

[JahDave]

OK I'm out for +20 pips and just couldn't stand the temptation to get in going back up. That is a pretty risky move because even though the wave structure is pointing to a flat that still doesn't mean that wave 2 won't extend down.

I should have said the B wave won't extend down instead of wave 2.

 

[JahDave]

It will be interesting to see how this chart unfolds. Elliott Waves rules allow that a B wave can be 138% the size of an A wave in a flat, currently the b wave is 123% the size of the a wave, and also this entire move down of the small b wave is composed of threes instead of fives, so therefore I'm still going for the flat at the moment. Even if I'm wrong I will hold my long position anyway because I'm looking for this correction to end at the .7115 and make a nice run up.

 

[JahDave]

On a side note. I am liking the bands. They seem to be pretty good.

 

[JahDave]

A pretty good day so far +115 pips in the bank with no losers.

 

[JahDave]

OK I'm out for +20 pips and just couldn't stand the temptation to get in going back up. That is a pretty risky move because even though the wave structure is pointing to a flat that still doesn't mean that wave 2 won't extend down.

I did say this was a risky move and it looks like the Kiwi is heading on down. Looks like I was wrong this time.

 

[JahDave]

My target for exit is the .7118 for a 50 pip profit.

OK, I hope this is a lesson to myself about doubting my analysis. I should have left my initial trade alone from start to finish and I would have had the entire move within five pips .

 

[JahDave]

I know what you are saying. In spite of me having more of the attitude to just jump in, I was asking myself, "Why didn't I just make the plunge on the hedge on cable at 1.5884?" Oh no! I had to wade it out. Now, I'm still looking for an entry. I got to hope I get a pullback during Tokyo.
In my opinion, the base has been formed as we are headed to 1.5734, at least.

OK Paul,

I just went long Euro 1.2804

 

[JahDave]

It looks like the EUR_AUD has completed the larger A wave and is starting the smaller c wave of the larger B. Bottom line is if it gets back down to the 1.4260 I'm buying it again with a tp at the 1.4350

This trade looks too uncertain now, so I'm not going to go through with this trade.

 

[JahDave]

This trade looks too uncertain now, so I'm not going to go through with this trade.

EUR_AUD.....Well I should have taken that one long last night at 1.4250 like I stated because it only went down to 1.4230. I missed the ride up but now that should complete wave C and it should come back down..and this pair should make a new low below 1.4180. I just went short at 1.4375. I'm beginning to see a pattern here ......initial analysis is great and then I second guess it. I did this twice yesterday.......hhmmmm???

 

[JahDave]

Potentially exciting news on the JPY.. The last move down was not impulsive, but this move up potentially is..... It still doesn't qualify yet as an impulse move up, but if this wave 4 doesn't go below the .8504 and it makes a new high for wave 5 then I'm going to say that this is wave 1 going up.

 

[JahDave]

If it holds up then the EUR_AUD has formed a very nice head and shoulders on the 5 minute charts. Considering I'm short that is a good thing.