Dow - Which Way?

[Bigbusiness]

Bid A-Tool,

Please answer my question in this post http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=249488&postcount=204

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Firstly I take everyone's points onboard. If I don't then I would be a fool. I am NOT interested in the daily moves of the DOW. I am interested in the Swing Trade itself from point A to B and identifying optimum entry and exit points.

If I do not call every Buy or Sell signal that my system produces in the test, how can I learn which signals may not be worth trading in the future. How will you be able to judge it as traders?

It is correct to say that there can be only about 2-3 trades a month with this system. I do not have the time to be Day trading with my system. This system was designed for my buy busy life. It involves looking at the DOW once a day near the end of close.

If these signals prove to be accurate over time then it would be very useful information to Day traders because as the signals were produced you would have a good idea of whether or not it would be safer to only use Buy or Sell orders within the swing period on a daily basis.

I have 300 points in the bag. The first call was not lucky I saw it before anyone else. I still have my sell order from the other day and it is only 10 points off this morning from my sell signal at 11,340. And yes real money is being used.

What is going to happen in this test as is already happening, traders are going with the trade and then "panicking" instead of being patient and calm. I never panic in any trade. As of NOW I don't want anyone to use real money on these trades. Please just observe or use the simulator if you wish. The "Stop Loss" from now on will NOT be moved once it is put in place. It will stay were it is for the whole trade period.

The TEST will go on. It is my aim to identify correctly the exact top and bottom of a swing.

I now have 7 indicators combined into my system to make one indicator.

I Don't want anyone to try and DAY trade with my system. It doesn't work.

Bid A-Tool

 

[Bid A-Tool]

DEFINITION OF MY SYSTEM:

The system is designed as an early Warning System. Like a Radar that picks up an Airplane before you see it or certain tremors an instrument detects before a big earthquake takes place that no one can feel under their feet.

The signals that are produced can be given 1-3 days in advance of the possible swing. This is why I do not worry about the daily moves on the DOW.

There are three signals. BUY, SELL & ABORT last trade position.

I want the "critics" on board because this will make me try harder to improve it.


Bid A-Tool

 

[hornblower]

Hi bat

ignore the critics
you trying something new , and your sharing it with us
just keep plugging away , and see how it works out
good luck

 

[JFK]

Come on Biddy, make your mind up.

“RIGHT THAT'S IT. I HAVE DECIDED FROM NOW ON TO STAY SILENT UNTIL I CALL THE "SHOTS". I WILL REPEAT. THE TRADES ARE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME.”
Sounds like your getting upset?

“I want the "critics" on board because this will make me try harder to improve it.”
Ya got’a take the rough with the smooth. Just like taking the winners & losers in trading.

You’ve been given a lot of useful advice from some very experienced traders on this site. Best you stop getting upset about things & take control of your emotions!

 

[Pedro30]

BAT's prediction is going to work out. I have a long term sell signal. The Dow will drop 200+ points in the next 6-7 trading days....

Dow futures are down 50+ before the open. Don't say I didn't warn you.

 

[toro168]

DEFINITION OF MY SYSTEM:

The system is designed as an early Warning System. Like a Radar that picks up an Airplane before you see it or certain tremors an instrument detects before a big earthquake takes place that no one can feel under their feet.

The signals that are produced can be given 1-3 days in advance of the possible swing. This is why I do not worry about the daily moves on the DOW.

There are three signals. BUY, SELL & ABORT last trade position.

I want the "critics" on board because this will make me try harder to improve it.


Bid A-Tool

somthing similar here bid http://www.trade10.com/Markets.html

 

[Bigbusiness]

Dow futures are down 50+ before the open. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Hope you took it quick

 

[watercooled]

Have I missed something?

Hi Guys!

It has gone very quiet here.......
Was enjoying the vibrant cut and thrust. Have I missed something?

Regards
WC

 

[Quercus]

Maybe the stop was moved again because of "irrational exuberance"??????????
Really - I don't know why these clowns bother!
Q

 

[kewbridge]

BAT's signals must have been falling over each other today, he's prob just a little to busy to post his trades, poor love.

Nice day btw - Stochastic came up trumps!

 

[Bid A-Tool]

DEFINITION OF MY SYSTEM:

The system is designed as an early Warning System. Like a Radar that picks up an Airplane before you see it or certain tremors an instrument detects before a big earthquake takes place that no one can feel under their feet.

The signals that are produced can be given 1-3 days in advance of the possible swing. This is why I do not worry about the daily moves on the DOW.

There are three signals. BUY, SELL & ABORT last trade position.

I want the "critics" on board because this will make me try harder to improve it.


Bid A-Tool

 

[rols]

Dow futures are down 50+ before the open. Don't say I didn't warn you.

Don't worry, I won't.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

My SYSTEM. JUST TO LET YOU KNOW WHAT I AM TRYING TO ACHIEVE.

The system I have developed is based on a BUY, SELL, BUY, SELL sequence. If I place a "SELL" trade like the last one at DOW 11,366 then I wait for the next signal to be generated, a BUY Signal. This is where I take the profit from my last trade and then enter the next trade sequence, a BUY trade.

QUESTION: If my last "SELL" signal was triggered at DOW 11,366 then when would my system trigger the next "BUY" signal? Would it be above or below DOW 11,366?

This is why, like over the past THREE days I haven't worried about the last "SELL" order because no "BUY" order has been generated by my system yet. Why? because the "BUY" signal should be somewhere under DOW 11,366 in this last trade.

This system will only work because it has an "un-canny" ability to pick off the Tops and Bottoms of a DOW swing which sometimes can last up to 10 days.

I am sorry everyone is having trouble understanding my system. I am still refining it and will learn from any mistakes.

The reason I am having problems with a "Stop Loss" system is because I am more worried about them interfering with an entered Trade position. I am comfortable with my system and when the signals are triggered. That is not the problem.

Bid A-Tool

 

[watercooled]

Hit stops are a way of admitting that you are human

My SYSTEM. JUST TO LET YOU KNOW WHAT I AM TRYING TO ACHIEVE.

The system I have developed is based on a BUY, SELL, BUY, SELL sequence. If I place a "SELL" trade like the last one at DOW 11,366 then I wait for the next signal to be generated, a BUY Signal. This is where I take the profit and then enter the next trade sequence, a BUY trade.

QUESTION: If my "SELL" signal was triggered at DOW 11,366 then when would my system trigger the next "BUY" signal? Would it be above or below DOW 11,366?

This is why, like over the past THREE days I haven't worried about the last "SELL" order because no "BUY" order has been generated by my system yet. Why? because the "BUY" signal should be somewhere under DOW 11,366 in this last trade.

This system will only work because it has an "un-canny" ability to pick off the Tops and Bottoms of a DOW swing which sometimes can last up to 10 days.

I am sorry everyone is having trouble understanding my system. I am still refining it and will learn from any mistakes.

The reason I am having problems with a "Stop Loss" system is because I am more worried about them interfering with an entered Trade position. I am comfortable with my system and when the signals are triggered. That is not the problem.

Bid A-Tool

Hi Batty,

This thread has been of some interest many of us. Many members have been system designing for 10 and 20+ years. We do know what you are going through, and in between chuckles praise you for your determination and confidence.

Without a doubt most of have tried your system criteria at sometime or other in the past on the Dow or other index. With many 'off the shelf' or 'home grown' indicators.

Most system designers agree that 'price is king', so no matter what your indicators are telling you, the price needs to follow. All trades start as a day trade until they are held over night. Furthermore, no matter how good the traing history of the system, sometime for the stangest of reasons it will probably fail. (I promise you!) This is why we set a hard stop. As arrogant as we like to be occasionally, a hit stop is a way of admitting we are human without loosing our shirts as well as our pride. 'Moving stops' to save realing a loss can be very expensive.

Reading this thread has helped me review my strategies and revisit my pains of the last 19 years. I hope I can return the favour. Moreover, when I was at school a lad used to cover his work so that we couldn't see or copy his work even though we were working to the same end. He never got top marks because he didn't realise he didn't know as much as the rest of the class collectively and we used to pool our knowledge. If you open up more you'll find that others are probably doing very similar and would be willing to share and help save you a few years of grief and losses. ( I know, I've been there)

All the best

WC

 

[Lightning McQueen]

some very good points in your post watercooled, thank you. I would like to explore with people the collective and sharing part if i may first.
It has been written on these boards that if you have a successful strategy and you share it publicly and people use it, over time its effectiveness will diminish I know for a fact that this system can be front traded by at least two days sometimes more I would like members comments on this part first.



is it safe to come out from the bomb shelter yet has the witch finder general and his posse left to find other witches to burn on another thread :cheesy:

cheers

Don

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Hi Batty,

This thread has been of some interest many of us. Many members have been system designing for 10 and 20+ years. We do know what you are going through, and in between chuckles praise you for your determination and confidence.

Without a doubt most of have tried your system criteria at sometime or other in the past on the Dow or other index. With many 'off the shelf' or 'home grown' indicators.

Most system designers agree that 'price is king', so no matter what your indicators are telling you, the price needs to follow. All trades start as a day trade until they are held over night. Furthermore, no matter how good the traing history of the system, sometime for the stangest of reasons it will probably fail. (I promise you!) This is why we set a hard stop. As arrogant as we like to be occasionally, a hit stop is a way of admitting we are human without loosing our shirts as well as our pride. 'Moving stops' to save realing a loss can be very expensive.

Reading this thread has helped me review my strategies and revisit my pains of the last 19 years. I hope I can return the favour. Moreover, when I was at school a lad used to cover his work so that we couldn't see or copy his work even though we were working to the same end. He never got top marks because he didn't realise he didn't know as much as the rest of the class collectively and we used to pool our knowledge. If you open up more you'll find that others are probably doing very similar and would be willing to share and help save you a few years of grief and losses. ( I know, I've been there)

All the best

WC

Yes you are absolutely correct. A stop loss system must be in place. Personally though, because I am comfortable with my system I am a little more liberal with my "STOP LOSS" system than other traders would tolerate. Protecting against a market crash though is a must.

What is the best way to test my system? Is it not to place it in public view? I run a full time business as well as learning my system. We are also due to move house soon.

Surely all the pressure I am feeling is a good test for my system.

In order for the system to work the signals must have accuracy.

I am being VERY brave or VERY stupid being here.

To be honest this is the hardest challenge I have ever had to face in my life. Would you like to do what I have decided to do?

Thanks

Bid A-Tool

 

[jezza888]

As a businessman you should know that strict rules and discipline are required in order to ensure success. Pressures shouldn't be an issue... trading should not incorporate pressure.... It should be a set of rules (business plan), which you are confident will make you more than you lose.

IMO you need to take time out to define your trading with rules you are comfortable with and with stops you are comfortable with which, at the end of the month, will produce a better balance than the last.

You have guidelines for your business at which you which price you will sell tools (I assume, I've not looked at your eBay shop) and in trading it should be the same.

Only you can decide what price/distance away your stops will be in relation to your overall plan. All well and good to obtain others opinions but at the end of the day, its your money on the line. Would you ask a forum on how much to sell your hammers for?

Just my thoughts

 

[Bid A-Tool]

As a businessman you should know that strict rules and discipline are required in order to ensure success. Pressures shouldn't be an issue... trading should not incorporate pressure.... It should be a set of rules (business plan), which you are confident will make you more than you lose.

IMO you need to take time out to define your trading with rules you are comfortable with and with stops you are comfortable with which, at the end of the month, will produce a better balance than the last.

You have guidelines for your business at which you which price you will sell tools (I assume, I've not looked at your eBay shop) and in trading it should be the same.

Only you can decide what price/distance away your stops will be in relation to your overall plan. All well and good to obtain others opinions but at the end of the day, its your money on the line. Would you ask a forum on how much to sell your hammers for?

Just my thoughts

I am under PRESSURE.......to obey the system. Don't think for one minute I trust the system. I see the signal sometimes and think "You must be joking!......like the last 3 days of the DOW movement.

If I don't obey my created system at the time of the signal then how can it be tested?

Bid A-Tool

 

[jezza888]

I am under PRESSURE.......to obey the system. Don't think for one minute I trust the system. I see the signal sometimes and think "You must be joking!......like the last 3 days of the DOW movement.

If I don't obey my created system at the time of the signal then how can it be tested?

Bid A-Tool

There shouldn't be pressure. If everytime you open a position you have a heart attack the system shouldn't be traded.

You have to be confident in the plan before you even think about trading it. Until there is no pressure, don't trade it. If your confident and its a good plan, applying discipline will be easy because you know it works. Don't rush into anything (esp. with real money) until your totally at ease and confident with the system.

If you don't trust the system, take time out until you do.