Dow Intraday Charts 29 Nov - 03 Dec

[frugi]

A trend day, my favourite 🙂 Not!

Interesting that YM looked a little different to the cash today. That first 3 peak ND wasn't one on my chart, yet between 15:50 and 17:50 there was on YM, but not in cash. Is your RSI Welles Wilder or the ordinary one ChartMan, I'm using Welles (type 1 in Sierra) which may explain the difference?

 

[ChartMan]

A trend day, my favourite 🙂 Not!

Interesting that YM looked a little different to the cash today. That first 3 peak ND wasn't one on my chart, yet between 15:50 and 17:50 there was on YM, but not in cash. Is your RSI Welles Wilder or the ordinary one ChartMan, I'm using Welles (type 1 in Sierra) which may explain the difference?

It's RSI, not RSI-S. period = 14, av = 1.Bog standard.

 

[justyn]

Hi everyone,

haven't posted/traded recently due to being busy with our new family member 😀

Looking at the bigger picture on the daily chart (attached) it looks to me like a bull flag giving a target in the region of 11300.

That sounds overly optimistic but coupled with the long term bull flag and the fact that there is usually a rally at christmas time I'd say we could be heading much higher.

I guess we need to see what happens at 10600, it could turn into a double top but if it breaks up convincingly then the next stumbling block might be the 10750 high from this time last year.

Hope everyone had a good day today!

Justyn.

 

[alliance]

Congratulations on the new addition to the family Justyn 🙂 Hope mother and baby ( and daddy!) are all doing well!... mini trader or traderess?

 

[justyn]

Hi Alliance,

"Harry James" born 16th November weighing 6lb 11oz. They're both doing fine although he hasn't got the grasp of trading just yet.

Justyn.

 

[TraderTony]

Congratulations Justyn - hope you are all managing some sleep. And well done to all the 100 baggers!

Wednesday 1st December 2004

There were some great opportunities for me today but I didn't want to trade immediately in front of the release of various economic data and this cost me the biggest moves...

Cautious taking a long in early trading after big gap up and with 2 sets of data due out at 10 so missed all the lovely early action.

Next clear entry came moments before oil inventories report at 10:30 so I left that too. It would have been good. Patience, patience. But I am getting closer and closer to ignoring news - it seems to keep me out of good moves more often than it protects me.

10:42 1) L 10540. No real follow through. Nervous. Then up. Nice. Then pulling back sharply.
10:52 EXIT: +20. Gave some back but not too much.

11:43 2) L 10574. Missed the initial break up. Going no where.
11:44 EXIT: -4. Out at bottom tick before it continues up.

So, another 100 point up move since the open and I've made fewer than barely 15 points after costs. Definitely too cautious around the numbers.

11:53 3) S) 10570. For a quick 10 on the ND. Going no where again. No where. Down. Out.
12:00 EXIT: +10. Too soon by the looks of it. Perhaps I should have tried for the 100 ema around 550 for +20 (or perhaps that is just being greedy).

13:11 4) L 10556. On possible bounce off 100 ema. Too soon. Nothing. Then up. But ugly looking reversal bar. Damn.
13:28 EXIT: +5. Should have got out sooner - gave back far too much of that one. And when I did get out, it was time to get in again (which I didn't do). That was really badly handled.

Looks like we could be moving to flip flop action.

Missed the break out up after 2pm but I'm happy to have picked up some left overs after missing the party and will call it a day there. Looks like it's going to 600 before the close.

+31 from 4
+27 for the day after commissions
+27 for December so far after commissions

 

[bast3k]

My technical analysis is giving a warning signal, as this was quite unexpected. But i might be wrong as i have been recently. Seems to me the last burst before the fall. The falling RSI and the new high is noticeable.

The oil fall was seen even yesterday, technically todays fall was clear at yesterdays close of crude. So i don't see todays rise has anything to do with falling oil.

my stop at 580 closed me out so if it goes down from here i'll be pretty disappointed. anybody else in the same situation ?

i usually don't use stoplosses. on monday my medium term signal turned to shorts. so i did it at nasdaq and dji. i hope yesterday session was the last before we drop much. much dipper than anyone here can predict. if not i would have a big trouble.
anyway - market during last month is totally unpredictable according to logical thinking. this bull market was started by drop in oil and election. it's time to back to the reality!

 

[tradesmart]

Congrats Justyn – my suggestion of “Dowbert” had limited appeal then…?!… 😉

Nice channel breakout above the triangle yesterday and possibly the first leg of the ‘Santa Rally’. My Dow Comp entry based on earlier indications of a minor pullback, is now looking a tad pessimistic, unless the NF payrolls numbers tomorrow cause a serious upset ….. 😕

But that seems very unlikely now – in fact if the number is merely ‘acceptable’ it could promote another push to the upside imho, and this is the likely scenario…..

Longer term targets have been mentioned above, but now the 140 point channel (or ‘bull flag’ if you like..) top resistance line has been broken, 10700 ish could be quickly reached.

 

[debs]

Justyn: Congratulations on the new arrival. It is very nice to see you back on the forum. I enjoyed reading your posts.

Tradesmart: Do you have any children? – I'd be interested to know their names?.

CM: Thank you for editing my post. Your comments are very helpful, as always. I am honoured to have the grand title of ‘chief traderess’ bestowed upon me. It is also very tactful of you....’chief gambleress’ might have been more appropriate.

I really wish that ‘taking a big slice out of the market’ did make me feel a bit invincible. (That must be a male thing.....no offence intended). It has the opposite effect on me, it makes me think I just 'got lucky'. I would feel much more confident if I could get consistent daily gains (like TT), rather than just have a few days of great results.

It is a male thing, I'm sure. The Lady traders I know of ( not many) don't suffer from it.

It is better to be cautious and right, than daring and wrong. And I'd rather be skilful than lucky – luck eventually runs out. The problem is, I don’t always know when I am gambling. Hopefully, that will come with practice. I didn’t think my Tuesday entry was a gamble (see post #31), but I did know I was taking a risk yesterday.

Risk is good so long as you KNOW it's a risk!

I have also noticed that I tend to attribute my gains to luck, but I blame my lack of expertise for any losses. This is not very logical....I probably need therapy of some sort.....but I can’t afford it, so I'll just have to muddle on.

I'm now going to get a cuppa and prepare for this afternoon. I am already feeling the pressure of living up to my new title. However, I think I might be the ‘only’ traderess here at the moment, so that puts things into perspective. I will have to get a lot of practice in before any competition arrives!

Good luck (I mean, good trading) everyone...
“The Chief Traderess”

 

[ChartMan]

My apologies to Sal whom I seem to have overlooked on bestowing a prestigious title amongst the fairer sexes on this thread. So how about Chief Threadneedleist as in the old lady of thread needle street.... not that I am inferring that Sal is in any way old.

 

[tradesmart]

Tradesmart: Do you have any children? – I'd be interested to know their names?.

I've lost count and I'm hoping to know their names myself one day.............

(stop smirking CM......... 😉 )

 

[ChartMan]

ROFL. :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[justyn]

A slightly messy day at the start today IMO.

I went short on the first pullback after the open and found myself +20 in no time. 64 had gone so we must be headed South? Got out quickly for +1 when it all went wrong.

The opening divergence convinced me to go long (a bit too late) and again I was quids in but bailed out in the chop as 580 was tested.

A nice rally up to 628, I stayed out until I saw the head and shoulders at "A". Failure to reach 32 and the H&S with a pullback to the shoulder line at "A" made a good short entry.

I missed that. I knew there must have been a good short entry somewhere here.
CM

Looked like a bull flag formed and the bounce off 64ish at "B" was a good spot to get out and go long. The rally ran out of steam at 600 though - maybe tomorrow we'll see a "real" break through 600?

Hope everyone did well today!

Justyn.

 

[ChartMan]

Not too hard to see it was going to reverse where it did.... So do we now have an up-channel? Or is it a sideways consolidation? Answers on a postcard, please.

 

[debs]

Justyn: Well done.

Sal: I think we should swap 'titles'. After today, needlework seems more appealing than trading.

CM: Is that a little reverse H&S on the end of your 10 min chart? - Would it have a potential target of 10500?

THU 2 DEC

10:01 I would normally enter a long now at 10574 as there is a PB to the ema. But I am wondering if this would be a ‘gamble’. The trend for the day (if any) has not been established, the 100 ema is quite flat and I have a resistance line at 10580, so I’m going to give it a miss.

10:34 ENTER long at 10597. It has made a new HOD and looks quite strong. Oh no...I have done the same as yesterday – the DOW is well above the ema, but I have entered because I don’t want to miss out. I'll exit if we move below the ema.

10:48 Should have been out at 10620, but it’s still well above the ema. I can see ND on the CCI, but not on RSI.



11:16 EXIT at 10625 for a gain of 28 pts. I can now see ND on both CCI and RSI. And we are near to the ‘32’ level.

Spot on! :cheesy:

(I’m taking a break now – I need to think about my strategy i.e. do I have one? I’m not following my own rules).

13:54 ENTER short at 10579 (ema-10582, sl-10602). Back from my break and I see it has started falling. Manage to get in on a PB to the ema.

14:29 EXIT at 10589 for a loss of 10 pts. Great – in addition to all my other faults, I can now add ‘gutless’ to the list. When I saw the Dow going up, I couldn’t even wait for it to reach my predetermined stop of 10602.

Perfect exit, given you missed the DB at 564.

I have decided that I really don’t know what I am doing and I’d better stop now.
Two trades +25-10=15 pts (excl costs). I don’t feel at all good about my efforts today.

D.

 

[ChartMan]

Now, I'm gonna bet that Deb's the Gambleress took the long at 545 just after the open.... Not so much of a gamble with the PD and the fact that it didn't quite make yesterday's closing support line along 540. Worth the gamble as the stop would be just below 540.If it went there, you could be sure it was going pear shaped..... Exit on the 3 pk ND top at 625.I had an early target of 600 that looked like failing at 595, but it eventually went on to deliver. I think finding a short here was a bit tricky, until 600 went.But then I'm not the world's best shorter. 🙁
Anyway, the target T1 was soon apparent, piling back 10 before finally dropping to that 64 and an RS switch.Had to be an out. And the second bounce on 64, along with the perfectly timed 3 pk PD ( 35 mins each) had to be a long.Finding an exit was another matter....
Nice spike up in the futs- must be around 620 or so. I only have ES futs ( up +4 at 1195)
Debs and others - I don't find CCI much help, apart from picking extremities on the 10 min charts.... now and again it will show a divergence but nowhere near repeatable enough to be able to rely on.

 

[debs]

Now, I'm gonna bet that Deb's the Gambleress took the long at 545 just after the open....

If only I had !!.....but in my effort to 'kick the habit', I didn't even get in at the first PB to the ema (10570).....D.

 

[TraderTony]

Tuesday 2nd December 2004

Took the good lady Christmas shopping, arrived home late and missed the move down off the first pullback (which is a shame as it would have paid off some of the presents!). I have also added an hour of pre-market to my charts to see if this helps trading the opening. Today it gave two PD opportunities for two winners (if they had been taken) but I'll monitor for a while to see if it seems to be useful.

Sharp reversal off the pivot at 550 level though. Today the 10am numbers do seem to have sent it into a bit of a spin.

10:35 1) L 10605. Feels late as it breaks yesterday's HOD but we'll see. Up nicely. Then stalls.
10:43 EXIT: +12. Good but another really poor exit - right at the swing low before it pushes up again. And I missed the re-entry too.

11:08 2) L 10631. No follow through at all.
11:09 EXIT: -2. Another bad exit at the bottom of the pullback.

11:17 3) S 10632. For 10 CT on a triple ND. Making me sweat. Then moving. Hits +9 and pulls back sharply.
11:26 EXIT: +7. Got nervous and took 7 on next opportunity. Should have held as I would have got the 10. And some! Never mind.

11:48 4) L 10610. For potential pull back up off 100 ema. Sideways. Then up. But only as far as +7 then retreating.
11:57 EXIT: +5 on lack of followthrough.

12:08 5) L 10617. Try again. Cannot take out 620.
12:12 EXIT: -1. Not happening.

Flip flop period.

Missed the break to the downside.

12:58 6) S 10587. Very late entry to downside. But going no where and there has been a PD. Should not have taken this.
12:59 EXIT -2.

Then missed the next leg down. Doh!

13:46 7) L10576. Go for 10 CT on the PD instead.
13:50 EXIT: +10. Nice.

I've got to finish early today so I'll quit there. I've missed some really good moves but still did OK.

+29 from 7
+22 for the day after commission
+49 for December so far after commissions (2 days of trading)

 

[sall]

All,

Sorry,the name is Sall and not Sal, and I 'm 6 ft 14st male therefore Debs you can be proud as ever to be chief Traderress amongst us. :cheesy: I'll post a picture on a postcard when I have the time. 😎

Been busy at work haven't had no time to trade at all therefore no posts, and the same will be today.


All the best...

 

[debs]

All,

Sorry,the name is Sall and not Sal, and I 'm 6 ft 14st male therefore Debs you can be proud as ever to be chief Traderress amongst us. :cheesy: I'll post a picture on a postcard when I have the time. 😎

Been busy at work haven't had no time to trade at all therefore no posts, and the same will be today.


All the best...

Hi Sall, I was surprised when CM said you were female, as I had got the impression that you were a male....but I'm not sure why. Anyway, I am very relieved....thank you so much for sorting this out...I can claim back my 'title'.

happy trading...Debs